Giovanni Ricco πͺπΊπΊπ¦
@ricco_giovanni
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Accidental economist @Polytechnique, @warwickecon & @ofceparis. Euro Area dating committee. Affiliate @cepr_org, @econrsa. Sometimes under @A_Different_Sky
Paris, France/London, England
Joined November 2016
The 3rd edition of the Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Markets moves from Africa to Asia and will take place in Kuala Lumpur, 16-17/01/2025. Keynote: @helene_rey . Organisers: @RefetGurkaynak @viegi_nic @cepr_org @econrsa .
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The British elites' arrogance and sense of superiority towards other European countries that led to Brexit summarised in a cover of @TheEconomist: "We have fallen as low as Italy"
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Humbled and surprised that @_SiLviA_mA's and my work on "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks" has been selected for the 2024 AEJ: Macroeconomics Best Paper Awards.
Congratulations to the winners of the 2024 AEJ Best Paper Awards! Check out the winning papers here:
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Our paper on "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs" (w/ @_SiLviA_mA ) has been accepted at JME. The editor, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and the referees helped immensely in improving the paper and we could not be more grateful.
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"Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs" (w/ @_SiLviA_mA) is finally online in the Journal of Monetary Economics. Huge thanks to @YGorodnichenko and some very helpful referees that helped in making the paper sharper and more readable.
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Nice to see that someone is reading my work.
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Please consider submitting your work to the Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics @ofceparis @ceper @banquedefrance, 12-13 December in Paris . Keynote speakers: Anna Cieslak and @gprimice . Submission deadline 15 September
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10th Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics .@ofceparis, December 6-7, 2022 @cepr_org @sciencespo @banquedefrance . Keynotes: Kristin Forbes (MIT) and Luc Laeven (ECB). Deadline for submission: September 16, 2022. @RefetGurkaynak @u_szczerbowicz.
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The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks w/ .@_SiLviA_mA is finally forthcoming at AEJ:Macroeconomics. First comes first: we owe a lot to the guidance of Simon Gilchrist, our editor.
Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks" by Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco.
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"The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks" (w/ @_SiLviA_mA) has been finally published in the July 2021 issue of AEJ: Macroeconomics @AEAjournals.
The July 2021 issue of AEJ: Macroeconomics (13, 3) is now available online at
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What is driving inflation in the euro area? Headline has been declining but core kept climbing. An interesting debate has put forward two explanations:.- Large energy price shock & supply chains.- Demand (maybe government demand)
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Very happy to see our paper, "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs" (w/ @_SiLviA_mA ), on the latest issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics.
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What is happening to euro area inflation? A thread with some data (but no policy hint!). Apparently, in the US and in the EA inflation looks similar. It's been, and probably will stay a little longer, record-high (@NowCastingIdeas now/forecasts). Is it driven by the same factors?
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It was great fun to teach Time Series Models for Macroeconomic Analysis at the @bse_barcelona Macroeconometrics Summer School. A big thank you to the participants, the organisers, Konstantin Boss who helped as the class teacher, and to the amazing support staff!
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Very happy to have a fantastic lineup of speakers and papers on the programme of the workshop "Advances in Structural Shocks Identification", on 14-15 June, @bse_barcelona Summer Forum. Keynote speakers: Raffaella Giacomini and Franck Portier
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The last @ECB press conference has been by some perceived as a blunder and has attracted criticism of Lagardeβs communication style . A summary and a few (contrarian) takes on the press conference.
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Please consider submitting your work to the 2024 workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics at @ofceparis in Paris on the 9th of December 2024. Keynote speaker: Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins).Deadline: 15 September. @RefetGurkaynak @AnnaRogantiniPi .
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The Bayesian Estimation Analysis and Regression (BEAR) toolbox v 5.0 (by Dieppe and van Roye) has been released. Newly added:.FAVARs.Proxy SVARs.Trend-cycle VARs.Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs.
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8th Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics @ofceparis, 9-10 December 2020, (unfortunately) online . w/ @RefetGurkaynak, @phil_andrade, @u_szczerbowicz. Keynote speaker: Emi Nakamura (UC Berkeley) as keynotes . Submission deadline: 15 November 2020.
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The replication code of "Bayesian Local Projections" is available on GitHub. We hope it may be of use and please let us know how it goes.
Our paper "Bayesian Local Projections" (with @_SiLviA_mA and @ricco_giovanni) has been accepted for publication at The Review of Economics and Statistics. The last draft is here:.
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What is happening with the ECB's thinking on the policy stance? A thread about the last speeches of Isabel Schnabel (IS) and Philip Lane (PL). The speeches are well-informed and show that there is a deep debate on what to do at the ECB.
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`A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation' w/ @ThomasHasenzagl, F. Pellegrino and @LucreziaReichli.has been accepted for publication at The Review of Economics and Statistics. Our last draft is here:.
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Our chapter on "Analysing inflation with semi-structural models" with @ThomasHasenzagl, F. Pellegrino and @LucreziaReichli for the Research Handbook of Inflation (Edward Elgar Publishing) edited by G. Ascari and @RiccardoTrezzi .
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The programme of the @barcelonagse Summer Forum workshop on `Advances in Structural Shocks Identification' is out (June 14-15, 2021) with lots of new interesting papers. Keynotes: Juan Rubio-Ramirez and Marco Lippi.
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The ECB is between a rock and a hard place and very confused . It is confronting rising inflation due to large commodity prices shocks, with inflation expectations picking up, but also several contractionary and asymmetric shocks hitting the euro area due to the war in Ukraine 1/
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What explains the post-pandemic surge of inflation in the Euro Area? New research at the @ECB provides some detailed analysis. No, it wasn't demand. (Spoiler: supply chain shocks, gas price shocks and oil price shocks).
π§΅New @ecb Research Bulletin by M. BaΕbura, E. Bobeica & C. MartΓnez HernΓ‘ndez: βShocked to the core: a new model to understand euro area inflationβ 1/5.
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There is a wide gap in the literature on the effects of monetary policy: emerging markets. A new paper with @viegi_nic and Ekaterina Pirozhkova tries to help fill this gap by looking at South Africa. Comments and criticism are gratefully accepted.
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There is a special place in hell for those who place figures and tables at the end of the manuscript.
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A new paper of M. Forni, L. Gambetti and me on structural identification in VARs with external instruments (IRFs, variance and historical decomposition) regardless of whether the shock is invertibile or not. Plus tests of invertibility/recoverability .
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What should the @ecb do next? . A thread on the views expressed in 3 recent speeches by the governors of national central banks . K. Knot @DNB_NL . J. Nagel @bundesbank . I. Visco @bancaditalia .
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Very happy to have a great programme and P.O. Gourinchas @pogourinchas as the keynote speaker for the 2nd @econrsa @cepr_org workshop on Macroeconomics in Emerging Markets in Pretoria 25-26 January, organized with the support of SARB and Banco Central de Chile
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A new draft of our paper on Bayesian Local Projections (BLP)w/ @_SiLviA_mA is out. Comments, criticisms and missing citations gratefully accepted.
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The programme (and registration link) of the 8th Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics @ofceparis is out!. Lots of great papers and Emi Nakamura as keynote speaker . w/ @RefetGurkaynak @phil_andrade @u_szczerbowicz @peterkaradi @cconces @pascalpaul .
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Off to a great start with Linyan Zhu (LSE) presenting "Let the Market Speak: Using Interest Rates to Identify the Fed Information Effect" at the @bse_barcelona Summer Forum Workshop on Advances in Structural Shocks Identification .
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Please consider submitting your papers to the Advances in Structural Shocks Identification workshop at the @bse_barcelona Summer Forum, 6-7 June 2024. Keynotes:.Barbara Rossi (UPF).@RefetGurkaynak (Bilkent University) . Deadline: 28 February.
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Very happy to announce another great programme for the 3rd workshop on Advances in Structural Shock Identification at the @bse_barcelona summer forum. We have been humbled by the quality of the submissions and regret not having being able to include all of the ones we loved
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Great to have Carlo Altavilla, the Head of Monetary Analysis Division in the DG-MP @ecb, at @CrestUmr @Polytechnique to talk about "Anchoring QT: Liquidity, credit and monetary policy implementation" (w/ M. Rostagno & J. Schumacher). Policy-relevant and cutting-edge research
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The @ofceparis Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics is back on 7-8 December 2021. Call for papers submission deadline: 20 September 2021. Keynote speakers: Barbara Rossi and Eric Swanson . w/ @RefetGurkaynak @phil_andrad @CelinePoilly @u_szczerbowicz .
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An excellent start to the workshop "Advances in Structural Shocks Identification", this morning @bse_barcelona Summer Forum. w/ @JuanAntolinDiaz, Alessandro Gobbi, Juan Rubio Ramirez, Michele Piffer
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What did we learn from Christine Lagarde's speech in Sintra? . 1. The @ECB judges that high inflation is not due to generalised excess demand and long-term expectations are still anchored.
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Off to a great start with Mathias Klein at the @bse_barcelona Summer Forum workshop on structural shocks identification
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A very interesting threadΒ by @HannoLustigΒ worth reading. The ECB decision is indeed very cautious. Is this caution unjustified? Some reflection looking at the EA data, on the current debate.
Can bond markets add and subtract? A short π§΅on the ECB's decision to pseudo-taper.
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Good to be able to visit museums and galleries again, and the surprising infinite rooms of Yayoi Kusama @Tate
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Not to be missed!.
Live from @PrincetonBCF - please join us this Thursday for a new Markus Academy webinar w/ @LSEEcon Prof. @R2Rsquared & @MarkusEconomist for a talk on #inflationrisk. Zoom Registration: Set a Reminder on YouTube: #Econtwitter
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The call for papers of the 2nd workshop on Advances in Structural Shocks Identification, on 14-15 June, @bse_barcelona Summer Forum is out . Keynotes: Raffaella Giacomini and Franck Portier. Deadline: 28 February.
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Very much looking forward to the 2024 edition of @bse_barcelona SF Workshop on Advances in Structural Shocks Identification . Another great programme with B. Rossi and @RefetGurkaynak as keynotes. (and thank you to all of those who submitted and couldn't get into the programme)
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A new working paper on Bayesian Local Projections (w/ @_SiLviA_mA and @leonogferreira) that discusses how to incorporate informative priors in direct estimation. More priors, more simulations, hopefully, a more interesting discussion of the methodology.
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Basilicata may be underrated but it's truly beautiful (and incredibly hospitable, even by Southern Italian standards). Matera, Craco, Castelmezzano, Pietrapertosa, Aliano. don't stop (only) at Eboli ;)
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The second day of the Advances in Structural Shocks Identification workshop @bse_barcelona starts off with Martin Bruns (University of East Anglia) presenting the "Time-Varying Transmission of Oil Supply News" (with Helmut LΓΌtkepohl).
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I'm impressed by the number of young and good-looking women liking my boring tweets about economics. The subject is becoming sexy, it seems. (Or scammers took over this place? And they know men are stupid?).
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A first working paper on "Monetary-Fiscal Crosswinds in the European Monetary Union" (with @LucreziaReichli and M. TarbΓ©) is out. Comments, criticisms and missing citations are very welcome.
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The surprising collapse of productivity in France. Surely related to the expansion of apprenticeship and strong employment figures (good!), but what else? Thoughts?
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The second day of the @bse_barcelona SF workshop on Structural Shocks Identification taking off with @lorenzarossi3 (Lancaster University) presenting "Nonlinearities with de-anchored inflation expectations" with Stefano Fasani and @mirela_miescu
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Just out - a working paper (book?) from the ECB wonder team Rostagno, Altavilla, Carboni, Lemke, Motto, Saint Guilhem, and Yiangou "A tale of two decades". Looks like a very important read to understand how/what/why was done:.
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The programme of the "Emerging Markets Back in the Spotlight: Risks and Policy Options" @econrsa @cepr workshop at @UPTuks 28-29 Nov is (nearly) ready. Keynote speakers: .Laura Alfaro (Harvard).Javier Bianchi (Minneapolis Fed) @JavierBianchi7 . @viegi_nic @RefetGurkaynak
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Some considerations on the implication of the war in Ukraine for the euro area. Two large shocks - energy prices and uncertainty - are hitting the EA that has not yet fully recovered from the pandemic shock, and has seen rising inflation. 1/5.
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Difficult to disagree with @fromTGA "The only adequate response [. ] to the Ukrainian presidentβs request is for EU leaders to say that Ukraine β fighting as it is to defend European values β is immediately accepted as a candidate for EU membership".
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We all knew it is always all fault of central banks, but this guy from Trump protests provides - amazingly articulately -.a new prospective! . By the way, @ECB : where is the entrance to our underground base? Canβt find the door but would love the antigravity thing!.
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Please consider submitting to the @barcelonagse Summer Forum Workshop on "Advances in Structural Shocks Identification" 8-9 June 2023 in Barcelona (w/ L. Gambetti). Keynotes: Evi Pappa and Karel Mertens. Submission deadline: 28 February 2023.
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A comparison of the inflation risks in the US and the EA with @LucreziaReichli and Jasper McMahon.
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Please consider applying to the 2nd @econrsa @cepr_org workshop on Macroeconomics in Emerging Markets in Pretoria 25-26 January, organized with the support of SARB and Banco Central de Chile, . Deadline: 20 November . Travel expenses will be covered. @RefetGurkaynak @viegi_nic.
Call for papers:.We're pleased to announce that we'll be hosting the 2nd ERSA/CEPR Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Markets. We invite submissions on a range of topics related to emerging market macroeconomic policies. Learn more: @cepr_org
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In case you have missed it, @R2Rsquared's informative and thought-provoking webinar on inflation risks @PrincetonBCF can be watched on online .
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Honoured to have been invited to join a very distinguished panel to discuss the challenges of monetary policy in the Euro Area and in advanced economies at the #SARBbiennial23.
[Today] The 2023 SA Reserve Bank Biennial Conference on 31 August and 1 September gets underway today at 09:00. The #SARBbiennial23 brings together international and local thought leaders who will reflect on the main challenges central banks and macroeconomic policymakers face in
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Inflation is falling faster than forecast in the eurozone and within touch distance from the 2% target. No, it wasn't excess demand. (and differently from the US)
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Please consider submitting to GSE Summer Forum Workshop on "Advances in Structural Shocks Identification" June 14-15, 2021 in Barcelona (w/ L. Gambetti). Keynotes: Marco Lippi and Juan Rubio RamΓrez. Submission deadline: March 14, 2021.
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My slides on 'Central Bank Communication and Information Effects' for the @cepr_org webinar are online. Thank you to @michaelbauer_hh Anna Cieslak all for the cool discussion, and to @mcmahonecon and @cepr_org for creating such a great seminar series.
Today β°15:00 GMT.From the #CentralBank Communication RPN join us for a panel discussion on 'Central Bank Communication and Information Effects'.w/ @michaelbauer_hh @unihh Anna Cieslak @DukeU @DukeFuqua & @ricco_giovanni @warwickecon .More and sign up:
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A new draft of the paper "Deep Dynamic Factor Models" with Paolo Andreini and Cosimo Izzo is available on ArXiv. Comments, corrections, and suggestions gratefully accepted.
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Food inflation remains too high. It must be demand: consumers eat too much. Letβs prescribe them a diet!.
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A new draft of a paper on "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy" is out, w/ @Rick_dgs & @SimonHon49 . (keep an eye on them - they are excellent PhDs students, on the market next year). Comments/critiques/corrections gratefully accepted!.
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A very first draft introducing "Deep Dynamic Factor Models" (D^2FMs) with Paolo Andreini and @cosimoizzo1 is out on ArXiv:.
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Codes and the manuscript accepted at the European Economic Review of `Financial and Fiscal Interaction in the Euro Area Crisis: This Time was Different' (w/ @albertomagno_ and @LucreziaReichli) are now online:.
`Financial and Fiscal Interaction in the Euro Area Crisis: This Time was Different' (with @AlbertoCaruso11 and @LucreziaReichli), wp @ofceparis. Measures in support of core countries' financial sectors explain much of the public debt accumulation.
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A new draft of "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility" w/ @_SiLviA_mA is out. With a new exercise on unconventional monetary policy. Comments & critiques gratefully received!.
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An IMF paper taking stock of negative interest rate policies (NIRP). - Macro effects comparable to conventional mp.- No disruption in money markets.- Lending rates down, volumes up.- Bank profits not deteriorated.- NIRP effective so far (but how far?).
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If Italy doesn't win the cup, surely it will get a Golden Globe.
Ehm π
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"Trouble Every Day: Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Economy" with E. Pirozhkova and @viegi_nic where we study monetary policy in South Africa is out as a @cepr_org discussion paper.
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Yet, I feel we have a serious problem in top publications. Crucial empirical macro problems are often overlooked in top journals, there is too much taste for novelty and not enough for robustness/seriousness. Too much group thinking driven by too few people.
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What other researchers may find useful (we hope) are .the extended Miranda-Agrippino and Ricco (2021)'s series of high-frequency instruments for.- conventional monetary policy shock.- information shocks .for the sample 1990:01-2015:12 .
1οΈβ£ We extend to 2015:12 the IV for conventional MP of Miranda-Agrippino and Ricco (2021). The original IV ends in 2009:12. We show that including the ZLB period in the identification does not alter the transmission. You can find the updated IV here:
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Another morning of great papers on the second day of the workshop "Advances in Structural Shocks Identification" @bse_barcelona Summer Forum. w/ @robin_braun @PooyanAA @ChristianKWolf Martin Bruns
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I admit I feel sorry for England and especially for Rashford, Saka and Sancho - they didn't deserve that (and all the abuses). It's a great team, they made the country proud and showed to have good values and good morals. If only we could drop references to the war - it's a game.
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Today, @Rick_dgs, @SimonHon49 and I will be presenting "The Global Transmission of US Monetary Policy" at the Monetary Economics session of the @nberpubs Summer Institute, at 2:15pm EST (7:15pm in the UK, 8.15 CET). You can follow live-stream on youtube:.
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Very honoured and grateful to be invited to join @cepr_org as a research affiliate. To celebrate, a much-improved draft of `The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks' (w. S. Miranda-Agrippino) is now a CEPR wp:.
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Let me help to conceptualise bands in (our) forecasts. First, 90% bands are not 100% bands :). Second, these are probability intervals of posterior predictive distributions conditional on.(1) Observed data.(2) Statistical priors .(3) The model (being true).
In the early 2000βs, realized inflation was consistently outside the 90% confidence bounds of the Bank of England fan charts. While I understand the logic behind the nowcasting model used to form these forecasts: I simply donβt believe them. @voxeu 1/.
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Many thanks from Luca and myself to Juan Rubio-Ramirez and Marco Lippi and all of the participants for making possible two very interesting days of discussions. We very much look forward to next year's workshop on `Advances in Structural Shocks Identification' @barcelonagse.
The programme of the @barcelonagse Summer Forum workshop on `Advances in Structural Shocks Identification' is out (June 14-15, 2021) with lots of new interesting papers. Keynotes: Juan Rubio-Ramirez and Marco Lippi.
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In anticipation of the refurbishment, the @bundesbank has produced a photobook of its stunning modernist headquarters, designed in the '60s by the Frankfurt architects Otto Apel, Hannsgeorg Beckert and Gilbert Becker:.
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Woke up thinking of somewhere, time ago, far away.
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Hate crime!.
You won't believe this, but you can soak uncooked pasta overnight in water and when you cook it you will only need to boil for a minute. Trust me, mums know how to save time x #AldiMumTakeover
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We are very much looking forward to the workshop "Emerging Markets Back in the Spotlight: Risks and Policy Options" @econrsa @cepr at @UPTuks. 28-29 Nov . Keynote speakers: .Laura Alfaro (Harvard).Javier Bianchi (Minneapolis Fed) @JavierBianchi7. @viegi_nic @RefetGurkaynak
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A first great day of papers and discussions at the @cepr_org @econrsa workshop on Macroeconomics in Emerging Markets, in Pretoria 25-26 January, organized with the support of SARB and Banco Central de Chile. You can follow live tomorrow sessions.
Currently breaking for coffee. Next up we have our Keynote Speaker, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. Listen here: @cepr_org
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Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics @ofceparis in Paris (w/ @RefetGurkaynak, @phil_andrade, @u_szczerbowicz). Keynote speakers: Silvana Tenreyro and Martin Uribe .Deadline for submissions: 15th of September.
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The ECB strategy: The 2021 review and its future . Our CEPR report: The steps in the right direction, the clarifications needed, and the challenges to be addressed in a shifting policy landscape . #ECBReview2021.
The 2021 ECB strategy review & its future: New report by @LucreziaReichli, @klaus_adam, @WarwickMcKibbin, @mcmahonecon, @R2Rsquared, @ricco_giovanni & @bweder provides a timely & clear framework to discuss current & future changes to the ECBβs strategy:
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"My dear, it's incredible, my friends, economic experts who have become climatologists, are now experts in virology!"
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Another important paper from.@RefetGurkaynak and coauthors, discussing monetary surprises and central bank information effects.
"Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior" by @RefetGurkaynak, Hakan Kara, BurΓ§in KΔ±sacΔ±koΔlu, Sang Seok Lee (@BilkentEconDept). Most models predict appreciation after unexpected tightening. But event studies show currencies often depreciate.
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Drinking a whisky and contemplating moving to Scotland. It is a truly beautiful country.
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What does explain the unprecedented accumulation of public debt in the Euro Area during the crisis? We compare what happened in 2008-2013 to previous recessions and have a careful look at the data. 1/6.
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Getting the chance to be at the @bundesbank guesthouse - a truly beautiful brutalist building with great interior design from the 70s - it has been really a privilege!
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US and World GDP sinking in the COVID-19 crisis from @TheEconomist and the new global model we have been working on @NowCastingIdeas
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Sims' "Macroeconomics and Methodology" is still very actual, by spelling "the view of economics as a science, [. ] that it is an enterprise that holds theory accountable to data". Too many deep points to summarise, but an essential read for PhD students.
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