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Redneck Capital
@redneckcap
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Equity L/S Analyst. Frauds, promotes and cyclicals.
Los Angeles, CA
Joined March 2013
@quinwoodlncap @JaredKubin Shorting companies with *accelerating* headwinds is always the easiest game in my experience. Not memes, frauds, ponzis or high valuation stocks. If u short normal companies at normal multiples facing accelerating headwinds you will (1) make more $ and (2) sleep at night
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@BubbleBeta @DannyOcean555 I think Aya impaired their market position so it’s not a purely cyclical setup
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@IndustTourist @BubbleBeta @red_dog_capital @stockgeekTV PVC drove 40%+ of earnings growth since pre pandemic so
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@IndustTourist @ActAccordingly Demand bad + imports + no reason for prices to be 2x higher than pre pandemic
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@IndustTourist @ActAccordingly Nah price has been going straight down for 2 years straight before that nothing burger price class action
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@IndustTourist @ActAccordingly I think ottrs market is even more consolidated and pricing has fallen much more slowly than conduit. Conduit -60% from peak already vs otter pipe is only -25%
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@IndustTourist @ActAccordingly I do and its incredibly worse than what mgmt is saying. OTTR better mkt structure. CNM good short
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@IndustTourist @ActAccordingly Ur not looking at pvc conduit which is down waaaaaay more and getting worse
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@IndustTourist @ActAccordingly How ppl think this is the "bottom" in atkr earnings is beyond me
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