Aussie commitment to solving climate crisis: import 400k migrants a year from much lower CO2 per capita emission countries in the middle of a rental crisis, house them in poorly insulated homes with poor infrastructure at least 1 hour drive away from the CBD + $15 tolls each way.
Before the rate hike cycle when mortage rates were 2%, a $1m 30year PI loan would cost ~$3700 to service per month. Now that same loan would cost 42.8% more at almost $5300 per month. If you want to keep the same $3700 repayment, the loan principal would have to shrink 30%.
Special shoutout to Melbourne as the city's CoreLogic home value index falls below the previous ATH of 158.36 (06/04/2020).
Today's value of 158.24 is 0.98 above the 2017 high of 157.26 (29/11/2017), which will be breached by the end of this month at the current rate of fall.
If you repay a P&I loan at $5000/month, at 2% interest you can service a $1.35m 30yr loan. At 5%, even with a 40yr loan you can only service just over $1m.
Compound interest: He who understands it, earns it…he who doesn't… pays it.
Investor Playbook:
1. Buy property for $800k, pay $45k govt fees
2. Rent at 2.8% gross yield
3. Drop rent yield to 2.3% for higher negative gearing
4. Sell for $5k loss on sticker price after 30 months
Income and capital loss achieved!
Avatar 2 is set in 2170, where whale brain juice is worth $80 million a vial and is supposed to be the "single most valuable substance known to man". Clearly the Avatar writers don't know Sydney property. In 150 years at CAGR of 7%, this house will be worth $37billion.
Buy, Renovate, Sell giving flipping headache for vendor in Queensland - bought for $840k in March 2022, new kitchen, new appliances, new bathroom, new floors, sell for $55k loss on sticker price.
Bought and sold in 6 months for $140k (-12%) loss on sticker price, along with $64k stamps, plus agent fees, etc. That's a lot of Rolexes and LV handbags.
Big 4 bank's fixed rate mortage expiry profiles are all similar (1st graph is Westpac) - approx 40% expires June 23, 70% expires by Dec 23. All of them loaded up on loans in FY21/22 (e.g. CBA lent more in 1H22 than FY20). LVR was ~70%, hard to find DTI mentioned anywhere...
Flipper's playbook:
Buy run down house for $2.936m in Feb 2022
Pay $174k stamp duty
Install new kitchen, new pathroom, new floor, new AC, new paint, new gates, new garden, new pool, etc
Sell for $3m in Dec 2022
P̵r̵o̵f̵i̵t̵!̵!̵!̵
A showplace of family indulgence showcases VIC property price falls - bought Nov 2021 for $2.6m, sold for $2.2m in Jan 2023. $400k loss in 14 months, along with $150k in government fees plus other transaction costs.
Mortage cliff is a much lower burden for investors - an IO loan borrowing 100% of a $1m property with 2% rental income is facing $3333 higher repayment/month but after negative gearing an investor on 45% tax is only $1833 worse off, less after taking rental inflation into account
When mortage rates were ~2%, a $2.7m P&I loan could be serviced at $10k/month. At 5%, the same loan needs $14.5k/month, or you can borrow $1.86m instead and keep the same $10k/month repayment. So either find an extra 50% after tax income, or borrow 1/3 less.
Based on CoreLogic home value index, Melbourne's property value index is now 160.92, only 1.6% above previous peak of 158.36 (on April 6, 2020). It is now the worst performing property market in Australia if measured from Jan 1, 2017.
For week 48 of 2022, Sydney's relative strength seen during spring appears to be waning, with pace of falls quickening a little to approx -0.4% on 7-day change. At today's value of 190.91, we are back at May 22 2021 levels, -11.63% from the peak, and +13% from COVID low (168.89).
Sydney property market rising like a phoenix out of the ashes from the 2022 downturn: $600k profit on sticker price in 5 months. Proves yet again going against the aussie property market is a widow maker 🤣
Buy house for $1.43m, pay stamp duty, pay legal fees, pay for new carpet and floorboards, pay gardener to clean up backyard, pay selling agent, pay marketing, sell for...$1.415m.
Assuming a 30-year P&I loan and the repayment amount does not change, then this is the reduction in purchasing power at various higher rates with different levels of LVR.
Kellyville house sold for $30k less than what vendor paid 20 months ago. Adding on stamp duty $72k, agent fees etc, vendor losing well excess of $100k.
Incredible potential at an incredible discount after just 7 months. Sold for $1.2m in May 2022, and now again for $930k in Dec 2022. $270k loss on sticker price, $66k stamp duty, etc.
For week 2 of 2023, CoreLogic's Sydney price index fell at a slightly quicker weekly pace of -0.36%. It is now -13.34% from the peak of 216.04. If it continues at the current pace of fall, in around 6 months time it will go below the 2020 high of 174.18.
May: Buy house for $395k, paint it inside and out
August: for sale $465k
mid September: for sale $439k
end September: for sale $425k
October: sold $395k
Vendor Waited for Sensational Future for 5.5 years, became impatient and sold for $185k loss on sticker price alone. Sensational Future awaits new owner.
Why did the race track get turned into a housing estate?
Because they heard they had some"tyre-rific" property deals - 42 Webber Loop Oran Park drops $170k (-8.5%) in 9 months, add on $94k stamp duty and other fees, vendor losses north of $300k.
For the last week of 2022, CoreLogic's Sydney price index finishes the year down just over 12%. It started the year at 214.57 and rising at a monthly pace of 2.54%, and ends the ear at 188.44 and falling at a monthly pace of -1.4%.
For week 3 of 2023, CoreLogic's Sydney index fell at a slower weekly pace of -0.24% and trailing 30-day rate is -1.2%. At today's index value of 186.77, we are back at the same level as May 6th 2021, when the weekly change was +0.52%. Sydney last green day was 42 days ago.
Sydney has surpassed the previous record for run of consecutive days in any direction - 110 days of consecutive down days (everyday since June 2, 2022) vs 108 days of consecutive up days (Mar 29-Jul 14, 2021). The median down day is -0.13, vs median up day of 0.16
Vendor wanted $1.43m to at least break even on their purchase price from 18 months ago, and sells for $65k less than purchase price. Total loss exceeds $150k if you add on $82k government fees, agent fees, etc.