Pavlina R Tcherneva
@ptcherneva
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President @LevyEcon ; Professor of Economics @BardCollege ; Director @EDI_Tweets ; Author, The Case for a Job Guarantee …
Bard College & Levy Economics
Joined November 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
Unemployment is a policy choice.
Accepting it as a perennial feature of the economy and an unfortunate but unavoidable situation IS a self-imposed intellectual handicap.
It causes so much pain and devastation.
We can choose differently:
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Prob the most significant Fed testimony of the decade, almost entirely due to the thoughtful questioning by
@AOC
,
@RashidaTlaib
&
@AyannaPressley
on the futility of the NAIRU, the need to support the real economy in recessions, & importance of an equitable public payments system.
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Arrests
-Brooklyn Bridge Occupy Wall Street 700+ people
-Ferguson 321 (144 on 1st day)
-
#Charlottesville
White Supremacists demonstration: 4
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Before the transformative 1935-1938 years of the New Deal, there were decades of labor organizing and coalition building that set the stage for these reforms.
"Make me do it" said FDR. And so the people did.
Time for a repeat. Many families can't afford to wait.
Let’s be clear: progressive ideas are winning regardless of who the nominee is. And
#MedicareForAll
is favored policy of majorities of voters in every state, despite all attacks.
@BernieSanders
, I & our movement will continue to fight so every American gets guaranteed healthcare.
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✅ Open a permanent CCC office in every county
✅ Supply CCC project/job lists to the American Job Centers (unempl offices)
✅ Create national online jobs portal & invite local/community created jobs
✅ Pay at least $15/hr +health, paid leave,soc sec
✅ Hire everyone who shows up
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Excited to announce my new book
"The Case for a Job Guarantee"
#JobGuarantee
#DemocraticDebate
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What should the post-pandemic stimulus include and how shall we pay for it.
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Some professional news.
Today is my first day as the new President of
@LevyEcon
- my intellectual home for much of my professional life. I'm so excited to work with a great team to curate Levy's cutting-edge research, grow our graduate programs, and amplify our impact on policy.
We are proud to welcome Pavlina Tcherneva as our incoming President: "What makes it especially exciting to lead this community of scholars is that for us these are not mere academic exercises but investigations of matters fundamental to our social fabric."
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"The private sector always does things 'better' than the public sector" is a perennial and pernicious argument. There is of course no 'natural law' that makes this so. But defending it often rests on a confusion between Administration and Purpose.
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Deficit in Jobs
Deficit in Education
Deficit in Housing
Deficit in Childcare
Deficit in Healthcare
Deficit in Environmental care...
These are the deficits that need closing, not the Budget deficit.
And if you are a new follower and not sure why, read
@StephanieKelton
's new book
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If it werent for MMT, this is what you'd read in the papers today:
-US govt insolvency
-bond vigilantes are coming
-run on the dollar
-skyrocketing int rates
-Weimar
-capital flight
Instead 🦗
Thank an MMTer
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Should we pass a Federal Job Guarantee?
Yes Yes Yes
👇 👇 👇
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The time to implement
#JobGuarantee
is now--when unemployment is low--because it's a *preventative tool. It absorbs newly laid-off workers and slows down the snowball/accelerating unemployment effect from recessions. To launch it in the midst of a crisis would be too late.
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Hard to think of a stronger endorsement of MMT 👇
I am sorry to see the
@nytimes
taking MMT seriously as an intellectual movement. It is the equivalent of publicizing fad diets, quack cancer cures or creationist theories.
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😂 this is a thing! And the comments... I'm in stitches.
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🚨🧵
I am pleased to unveil a new Job Guarantee resource tool for scholars, policymakers, and engaged citizens.
1/x
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Do not underestimate. Young people reject:
1) false choices (climate vs. jobs)
2) 'necessary' evils (impoverishing some communities in the transition)
3) holding
#GreenNewDeal
hostage to artificial 'pay fors'
4) incremental solutions (e.g. carbon taxes w/o mass mobilization)
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Colonial currency often has 2 inscriptions
✅"Receivable in payment of all taxes & public dues"
✅"The state of X will pay to the bearer Y dollars"
As MMT says:
The currency is a public monopoly issued as tax credit.
Taxes don't fund the state.
State spending funds tax payments.
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Jay Powell mic drop: Money-financed fiscal policy by the Fed is not a thing. Congress determines fiscal policy and size of spending. Fed does asset swaps (reserves for bonds and vice versa). Gives lesson on the consolidated balanced sheet.
#mmt
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2015: The 80 richest ppl owned as much as world's poorest half
2016: The 62 richest ppl owned as much
2017: The 8 richest ppl owned...
#Oxfam
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🧵I'm pleased to launch a new symposium on Post-Neoliberalism in collaboration with
@AAzmanova
.
We feature inaugural pieces by Ian Shapiro,
@RBReich
,
@rodrikdani
& James Galbraith.
Our project explores two forces that reproduce the neoliberal paradigm:
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I'm floored.
And I just heard about another in CA. 💜💜💜
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Giving homeless people a home slashes homelessness...🤔
Now do joblessness.
“In Finland, the # of homeless people has fallen sharply. Those affected receive a small apartment & counselling with no preconditions. 4 out of 5 people affected make their way back into a stable life. And all this is CHEAPER than accepting homelessness.”
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There's one economic phenomenon that behaves very much like an epidemic.🦠 Unemployment. From the way it spreads, to the way it affects people, communities and the economy, to its long term impact. It's chronic and can be quite literally deadly.
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MMT's research progam was always about full employment AND (not or) price stability. It shows we have lot more firepower than orthodoxy claims, but the MMT solution to inflation is surgical/targeted spending by govt and a job guarantee. None of which was implemented during covid.
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If the 'guarantee' in the Job Guarantee concerns you, may I point out that, without it, the economy always guarantees (yes, guarantees) UNemployment.
Take your pick.
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Dems must not give an inch to the deficit/debt fear mongering. Republicans will resurrect it with a vengance. Don't play on their turf.
Kasich says that debt and the solvency of social security and Medicare are the challenges facing America. That we need little steps. Honestly, what century is he living in?
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"The purpose of studying economics is...to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.” Joan Robinson
Calling the capital controversy a 'detour' is one such deception. The methodological implications were profound, yet ignored by the mainstream, impoverishing the discipline.
Nice appreciation of Joan Robinson, although no mention of her later role. Sad to say, as a student I mainly encountered her through the "Cambridge capital controversy," a huge intellectual muddle 1/
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If Bernanke got a Nobel for his take on fiscal components of monetary policy, I'd be more sympathetic. There was something there but he didn't run with it. MMT did. Instead, the Nobel went to a flat-earth theory of banking that most everyone knows is wrong
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I have a joke about the unemployment rate, but it's not natural.
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I mean wouldn't it be better if we had kept it at its original 1938 level of 0.25cents? 🤷♀️
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In the midst of COVID, Swiss unemployment peaked (!) at 3.5% in May.
In the US, it peaked at 14.7% April and the min wage has been stuck at $7.25 since 2009.
Unemployment and pay are policy choices.
Geneva, Switzerland, introduces a minimum wage of $25 an hour, more than $4,000 a month
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But experts warn:
-fighting Hitler would be an extraordinary effort
-getting out of the Great Depression would be an extraordinary eff...
-bailing out the financial sector would be an extraordinary...
-Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe would be an extra...
Green New Deal backers say they want more high-speed trains to make airline travel less necessary, and more electric cars and charging stations.
But experts warn that changing the existing fleet of cars in the U.S. would be an extraordinary effort.
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Stating the obvious as some sort of Eureka moment is what happens when you are consistently wrong about unemployment.
Evidence suggests that the main factor behind America's high unemployment rate is lack of jobs, not an unwillingness to work
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Robots aren't behind the widespread economic trauma. Even in manufacturing, which is only 8% of all jobs. For the tech armageddon story to hold, robots must be decimating services too, which they aren't. Self-checkout counters ain't the problem, folks.
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Congratulations
@JoeBiden
and
@KamalaHarris
! May you have the Rooseveltian resolve you campaigned on.
Some unfinished business from FDR and a whole planet to save.
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A UMKC graduate:
MMT has created a job guarantee for anyone willing to criticize it.
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Unemployment is not pauperism.
It's a systemic condition, not personal failure.
Pauperism was to be 'cured' through charity, or worse-the workhouses. That view still prevails.
Job Guarantee is "fair work" policy, recognizing that unempl is a macro force beyond a person's control
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Did you hear?
Giving people living-wage jobs is controversial.
But using the unemployed to stabilize prices, while inflicting enormous costs on society and the economy is perfectly fine.
#mmt
vs
#upsidedowneconomics
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One more reason why I'm not
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$600/wk Unemployment Insurance cannot deliver the benefits of a $600/wk Job Guarantee. From the outset, I should say JG is not a replacement for UI, no matter what you may have heard. I’ll get to this later, but read this long 🧶 w/ that in mind.
Surprised so many smart people bought into the idea that $600/wk UI is the same as $600/wk job guarantee (or better) or that JG jobs must be inherently inessential. I’ve addressed this many times & will post a thread later. Trying not to spend precious family time on Twitter.
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The 'natural unemployment rate' idea must go once and for all.
We do not talk about the 'natural homelessness rate', the 'natural hunger rate', or the 'natural illiteracy rate.' It's neither 'natural' nor unavoidable.
We have solutions.
Join the book club on Thurs to hear more.
Grateful to
Real Progressives for featuring "The Case for a Job Guarantee" in their book club and to
@FadhelKaboub
and
@rohangrey
for leading some of the sessions.
Starting tomorrow, 4 Thursdays, June 17 - July 8, 2021, 8:30p ET/5:30p PT.
Join us!
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"But we need to wake up. This is not a faceless phenomenon of inexorably improving technology that we all must submit to. This is, quite often and quite simply, rich business owners and the executive classes locating new ways to make themselves richer."
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Clear. Competent. Candid.
Anderson Cooper: How are you going to pay for all of this?
@AOC
: Nobody asks how we're going to pay for the 'space force'
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House Budget Chairman on
#MMT
:
"Sounds like there is a lot of validity to it"
"I'm willing to be convinced"
Considers holding hearings on MMT
The
#JobGuarantee
, a central MMT feature, acting as an economic stabilizer could address Dem's inflation concerns
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No. Orthodoxy had to invent non-Ricardian regimes to try get away from the Barro/Muth straight jacket (and still didn't embrace them). We have Maastricht criteria, balanced budget amendments, Reinhart Rogoff fiasco, etc, etc. Can't whitewash mainstream economists' culpability
Remember, debt panic and demands for austerity weren't coming from economists; they certainly weren't grounded in economic models 2/
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💯In a fiat world, taxes don't fund federal spending. Pretending they do has led to a global self-induced paralysis:
This is why I have zero patience for Robin Hood politics. The sick, the poor, and the planet wait while you chase gold coins in a fiat world
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In UBI experiments, "folks who receive basic income report that they still need work. They are looking for work and they just cannot find it. The job guarantee is that mechanism."
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Heterodoxy has long criticized the NAIRU and the natural rate, but has not mounted a robust challenge for lack of a clearly articulated policy alternative that can secure full employment without compromising price stability.
MMT has such a proposal.
The federal Job Guarantee
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Hi!🖐 Just a reminder that CARES act was big enough to cover every single wage in the US for 3mos & employ *all the unemployed. We could've stretched it longer, as not all jobs were threatened by COVID.
We always have the 💵💵. What we don't have is good economic policy.
Gnight💤
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Immensely grateful for the interest in my work from different corners of the world. Despite the lockdown (or maybe because of it), I met and worked with many, many amazing people.
Best wishes to everyone for 2021! 🎊🎉
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Exactly, because orthoodoxy has failed again and again. We can't fight climate change with a carbon tax, just like we didn't defeat Hitler with a fascism tax.
#GreenNewDeal
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Are you scared of the the
#JobGuarantee
?
Have you heard that it's hostile or antithetical to welfare or unions? Let me try to help.
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The brilliant
@Ocasio2018
is the earthquake the
#Dems
needed for a long time. And the
#DNC
better take note. She *is* the future of the Democratic party. More Ocasios are coming. Congratulations, Alexandria!
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For MMT, a relevant constraint is the inflation (not budget) constraint AT full employment. There are 'inflationary' fiscal policies below full empl and could be used as justification for layoffs/low wages to tame inflation. We reject the NAIRU as a Monetary or Fiscal policy rule
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"Yes, the planet was burning. We had water to put out the fire. We had firefighters to do the job. Sadly, wE DiDN't hAvE tHe MoNey."
#MMT
puts a stop 🛑 to this nonsense.
This Economic Theory Could Be Used To Pay For The Green New Deal
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Paul influenced generations. He made sure that the real JM Keynes lived in the profession and our scholarship.
I had the honor of organizing the Post Keynesian conference & summer school for several years after he passed the baton to UMKC
RIP Paul Davidson
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There's a fix to the worry that raising the minimum wage to $15/hr may cost some jobs.
Create a public sector inventory of jobs for the unemployed at $15/hr.
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Important key victory. Also transitory. The argument that "at *some* point wages will rise and cause inflation" isn't dead. At that point, jobs will again be on the chopping block. We need tools for inflation control other than unemployment & stagnant pay
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Death panels brought to you by a healthcare system run for profit.
We need
#MedicareForAll
now
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If you think govt deficit spending at full employment leads to hyperinflation, you need a better theory of hyperinflation. Hint, every historical case of hyperinfl has had mass unemployment, and no full employment case has had one. There is zero
#MMT
here:
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This is big. PAYGO is a powerful lock on bold progressive policies. Seems
@AOC
unlocked it.👏🏼
One of the 1st votes I ever cast broke w/ my party over House rules that strangled transformative legislation for working people + climate. It was honestly terrifying.
Now, CPC has pushed these critical rule changes in House negotiations. Grateful for
@RepMcGovern
’s leadership🙏🏽
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I enjoyed this interview (no paywall). Has some answers that are not in my Job Guarantee FAQ.
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Good morning!
Scotland's largest political party endorses the JobGuarantee. Congratulations to the MMT community for their tireless work.
@ModernMoneyScot
@IndyAnatomist
@MammothWhale
I'm overwhelmed and beyond happy! Thank you to every single
@theSNP
member for endorsing the "Jobs For All" policy.
Incredible credit goes to
@IndyAnatomist
for her amazing points and work with the resolution, and
@ptcherneva
who inspired this resolution through her work. 🏴✊
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I find no compelling economic, political, moral arguments for using the unemployed to stabilize prices. Guaranteeing the right to decent work to all is long overdue. Fed's key responsibilities are regulatory/supervisory, not hitting the 'right' # of jobless people.
#JobGuarantee
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All of your
#JobGuarantee
questions answered.
My proposal for the USA is now published:
My website also has 50 FAQ:
(I'll be adding to it, so feel free to send me yours)
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The
#NAIRU
is the belief that people who are hungry and out of a job are *necessary* for the smooth operation of the economy. This is
#EconomicVandalism
. Replace the
#NAIRU
with a
#JobGuarantee
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Getting ready for my
@ECB
talk. I'm told 100+ rsvps. The room definitely does not fit that many. Let's see...
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Absolutely unacceptable. I cannot stress enough how cruel and immoral the
#Eurozone
monetary system is. Relief and funding must be provided to all member states on demand.
The public good cannot be sacrificed to the vagaries of the private sector.
Italy 10y risk spread over Germany explodes as
#ECB
’s Lagarde says 'we are not here to close spreads, that's not function of ECB'.
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The paradox of a monetary production economy is that while unemployment is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, increasing the amount of money in the system does not guarantee it will be eliminated. The key policy Q is, not how much govt must spend, but how does it spend.
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Because "everything is connected to everything",
@SenSanders
brilliantly covers the opioid epidemic, unemployment, inequality, healthcare reform, trickle-down economics, the rise of American oligarchy, the political revolution, and more...in just 30min
@epsusa
#attheturningpoint
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2 options only:
1. We tolerate mass unemployment and bear its outsized real costs;
2. We devise a long-run program to hire the unemployed directly.
Both are countercyclical and anti-inflationary.
The 1st is economic vandalism.
The 2nd is humane & macroeconomically sound.
#FJG
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MMT is not about printing money
MMT is not about permanently large deficits
MMT is not about monetizing the debt
The US/UK have all the tools necessary to finance fiscal expansion as needed. The EZ does not.
Fiscal policy can also address supply shocks
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The right to a job is the basis for a new social contract. Thank you
@FlyingWithSara
💪🏼
They didn’t have to finance the tax cuts. They just made a political decision. They can do the same with building an economy from the ground up. Healthcare as a right. Housing and education for all. The right to a job. And they can start with making sure no one is going hungry.
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Economic malpractice. Obsessing over accounting ratios that say nothing about the health and wellbeing of the community.
"We will protect the public finances, over the medium term getting our borrowing and debt back under control"
Chancellor Rishi Sunak says there is a "sacred responsibility" to "balance the books" following increased borrowing during coronavirus
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Economist Pavlina Tcherneva makes the case that the promise of a job for every American who wants one would set a modern living standard and marshal the power of the nation’s workforce to accomplish what so desperately needs doing. via
@HuffPostPol
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"we'll increase or lower the number of destitute people until we get it just right"
Vicious and morally bankrupt economic policy
"We need the concept of a natural rate of unemployment ... we need to have some sense of whether unemployment is high, low or just right," Jay Powell says
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Surprised so many smart people bought into the idea that $600/wk UI is the same as $600/wk job guarantee (or better) or that JG jobs must be inherently inessential. I’ve addressed this many times & will post a thread later. Trying not to spend precious family time on Twitter.
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Just dropping by to say that a 'reliable' theory would not use unemployment or poorly paid employment as inflation fighting tools
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Celebrating Hyman Minsky's 100th birthday with Diana Minsky, Esther Minsky and Randy Wray.
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With a job guarantee, tech is not the 'villain' threatening jobs. Without it, labor-saving tech is 'wasted' and 'unproductive', as the economy/society bear the large costs of unemployment. JG+tech innovation deliver real benefits, efficiencies, ⬇️working day, ⬆️standard of living
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I enjoyed your essay very much
@aaronwistar
but strongly disagree w/ the claim that JG controls inflation via wage suppression. JG establishes a firm positive/living wage floor that's missing today. The status quo uses wage suppression based on mass unemployment for infl control
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Spent 2 wks in Japan. At my train stop in Tokyo there is a lady who keep the escalators spotless and takes care of the plants.
This is in addition to the incredible and well-staffed public transportation system and services.
But HoW CaN the Job gUaraNtee CreAte EnoUgH JoBs?
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📢📢📢
Job guarantee programmes – whereby the government guarantees a job to anyone willing and able to work – can protect workers from the biggest global employment challenges of our time,
@srpoverty
Olivier
@DeSchutterO
told the
@UN
Human Rights Council.
#HRC53
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💪🏼
@sunrisemvmt
launches "Good Jobs for All" campaign to demand that lawmakers pursue a robust recovery that guarantees a good job to anyone who wants one and puts the country on a path toward a Green New Deal
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Wow. This thread earned me a block from Brad DeLong. So please retweet.
I guess when he said "the baton rightly passes to our colleagues on the left" he was just kidding.
After all, what reason is there to give jobs to people who want to work!? 🤷♀️
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The WAY we grow in the US brings more
#inequality
. Distribution of income during expansions (trough-to-peak).
http://t.co/kbnljFOaBk
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Packed room. Did a quick survey of the audience. Half of them came because there was "Modern Monetary Theory" in the title. The other half came because there was "Green New Deal"
#MMT
#GND
#ECB
Getting ready for my
@ECB
talk. I'm told 100+ rsvps. The room definitely does not fit that many. Let's see...
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This! This is the biggest threat to democracy around the🌍
Right-wingers embrace monetary sovereignty, abandon austerity, don't pretend they can balance budgets (Johnson, Trump)
While Center/Left parties insist on phantom PAYGOs, fiscal rules, deficit cuts
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Two ways in which monetary policy 'works':
1) it stimulates the economy by driving people in debt, and
2) controls inflation by driving them out of a job.
A hugely important point about Monetary Policy vs. Fiscal policy:
"Monetary policy “works” by driving people into debt. Fiscal policy works by driving income into people’s pockets. "
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Cost of Green New Deal? 1.3% of GDP per year or about $322b. The green projects alone (excluding the other policies and savings) may be 5% of GDP or about $1T per year.
No where near $100T
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