Polls to Seats
@pollstoseats
Followers
1,859
Following
28
Media
98
Statuses
661
Translating the Irish and N. Irish General Election and Assembly polls from percentages to seats. Aggregates all polling companies to get seat predictions.
Ireland
Joined June 2019
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Covid
• 849832 Tweets
#บวงสรวงข้ามฟ้าเคียงเธอ
• 678674 Tweets
Worship The Next Prince
• 487662 Tweets
TNP X ZEENUNEW
• 319048 Tweets
梅雨明け
• 178668 Tweets
黒人奴隷
• 88427 Tweets
Botafogo
• 87972 Tweets
Moze
• 54425 Tweets
パワプロ
• 39633 Tweets
Halal
• 32139 Tweets
関東甲信
• 31888 Tweets
カルストンライトオ
• 29593 Tweets
Botox
• 22924 Tweets
Alisson
• 18636 Tweets
Tigres
• 15753 Tweets
#MHA428
• 15273 Tweets
Toga
• 13576 Tweets
건강보험 피부양자
• 10578 Tweets
Felipe Anderson
• 10281 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
I have an excel document running calculating on a constituency basis what seats count each party should have based on the polling data (it also takes into account the polls typical inaccuracies). I check the sheet manually each time it updates with new polling data.
5
4
13
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Red C poll.
SF: 64 (+28)
FG: 37 (+4)
FF: 30 (-7)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 1 (-4)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 0 (-1)
GP: 0 (-11)
I&O: 22 (-2)
59
78
252
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Red C opinion poll.
(Compared to Current Cabinet)
SF: 66 (+30)
FF: 36
FG: 43 (+10)
GP: 0 (-10)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 0 (-1)
I&O: 8 (-17)
52
35
209
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the B&A opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 65 (+29)
FF: 35 (-2)
FG: 44 (+11)
GP: 2 (-10)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 0 (-1)
I&O: 8 (-15)
31
46
144
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Red C poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 64 (+28)
FF: 31 (-6)
FG: 38 (+5)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 19 (-5)
22
44
138
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the B&A opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 64 (+28)
FF: 30 (-7)
FG: 38 (+5)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 7 (+1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 19 (-5)
14
35
125
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Ireland Thinks opinion poll.
Compared to Current TDs
SF: 62 (+26)
FF: 29 (-8)
FG: 41 (+8)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 2 (-3)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-6)
8
39
98
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterdays Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 68 (+32)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 33 (-4)
SD: 5 (-1)
GP: 3 (-8)
PBP: 2 (-3)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
I&O: 22 (-2)
8
29
76
This is the new seat prediction based on only todays B&A poll (no other polls). Keep in mind that this is much less likely to be accurate.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 70 (+34)
FF: 37
FG: 31 (-2)
GP: 4 (-7)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 11 (-13)
7
11
56
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the B&A opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 61 (+25)
FF: 33 (-4)
FG: 40 (+7)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-5)
11
23
58
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding today’s Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 52 (+16)
FG: 41 (+8)
FF: 31 (-6)
SD: 6
GP: 3 (-8)
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 3 (+2)
L: 2 (-5)
I&O: 33 (+9)
33
36
50
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterday’s Ireland Thinks and Red C polls.
SF: 52 (+16)
FG: 41 (+8)
FF: 32 (-5)
SD: 6
GP: 3 (-8)
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 3 (+2)
L: 1 (-6)
I&O: 33 (+9)
25
26
53
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays B&A poll.
Majority: 87
SF: 68 (+32)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 35 (-2)
SD: 5 (-1)
A: 2 (+1)
GP: 1 (-10)
LP: 1 (-6)
PBP: 0 (-5)
I&O: 23 (-1)
17
19
52
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 61 (+25)
FF: 35 (-2)
FG: 39 (+6)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-5)
12
11
50
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterdays Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 60 (+24)
FG: 38 (+5)
FF: 35 (-2)
SD: 3 (-3)
PBP: 2 (-3)
GP: 1 (-10)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
I&O: 19 (-5)
7
18
51
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding today’s
@OpinionsIE
poll.
SF: 52 (+16)
FG: 42 (+9)
FF: 30 (-7)
SD: 6
GP: 3 (-8)
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 3 (+2)
L: 2 (-5)
I&O: 33 (+9)
16
18
51
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterday’s Red C poll.
SF: 51 (+15)
FG: 43 (+10)
FF: 28 (-9)
SD: 5 (-1)
GP: 4 (-7)
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 2 (+1)
L: 2 (-5)
I&O: 36 (+12)
12
19
50
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterday’s IPSOS poll.
SF: 50 (+14)
FG: 43 (+10)
FF: 30 (-7)
SD: 5 (-1)
GP: 3 (-8)
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 3 (+2)
L: 2 (-5)
I&O: 35 (+11)
12
18
45
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Ireland Thinks opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 64 (+28)
FF: 33 (-4)
FG: 40 (+7)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 1 (-4)
A: 2 (+1)
I&O: 13 (-10)
15
12
41
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding today’s Red C poll.
SF: 53 (+17)
FG: 42 (+9)
FF: 27 (-10)
SD: 6
GP: 4 (-7)
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 3 (+2)
L: 2 (-5)
I&O: 34 (+10)
10
24
43
📣 If a NI Assembly Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Lucid Talk poll.
SF: 32 (+5)
DUP: 30 (+5)
AP: 11 (-6)
UUP: 8 (-1)
SDLP: 4 (-4)
TUV: 2 (+1)
PBP: 0 (-1)
GP: 1 (+1)
I&O: 2
4
17
42
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 40 (+4)
FG: 42 (+9)
FF: 29 (-8)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 5
II: 5 (+2)
A: 2 (+1)
L: 1 (-6)
GP: 0 (-11)
I&O: 45 (+21)
16
14
41
If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterday’s Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 54 (+18)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 27 (-10)
SD: 7 (+1)
GP: 3 (-8)
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 3 (+2)
L: 2 (-5)
I&O: 36 (+12)
5
19
42
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Red C opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 61 (+25)
FF: 32 (-5)
FG: 41 (+8)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 7 (+1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-6)
12
18
40
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding today’s Red C poll.
SF: 55 (+19)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 30 (-7)
SD: 6
GP: 4 (-7)
PBP: 3 (-2)
L: 2 (-5)
A: 2 (+1)
I&O: 33 (+9)
8
16
38
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 61 (+25)
FG: 38 (+5)
FF: 33 (-4)
SD: 4 (-2)
PBP: 2 (-3)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
GP: 0 (-11)
I&O: 20 (-4)
3
12
37
I’ve been working on displaying each constituency with predicted seats. Below will be a thread of each constituencies.
I’ll make the file available for everyone to view at some point, but for now, you can use the thread to get an idea.
3
8
34
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding last weeks’ Red C poll.
SF: 44 (+8)
FG: 42 (+9)
FF: 30 (-7)
SD: 6
GP: 4 (-7)
PBP: 5
A: 3 (+2)
L: 3 (-4)
I&O: 37 (+13)
4
10
34
Just as a side note, this is the worst predicted result for Government parties since July 2022.
0
2
32
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding a todays Red C poll.
SF: 69 (+33)
FG: 38 (+5)
FF: 32 (-5)
SD: 5 (-1)
GP: 3 (-8)
A: 2 (+1)
PBP: 1 (-4)
LP: 1 (-6)
I&O: 23 (-1)
4
6
33
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays B&A poll.
SF: 62 (+26)
FG: 38 (+5)
FF: 34 (-3)
SD: 3 (-3)
GP: 2 (-9)
LP: 1 (-6)
PBP: 1 (-4)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-6)
3
14
32
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding today’s Opinions poll.
SF: 52 (+16)
FG: 41 (+8)
FF: 28 (-9)
SD: 6
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 3 (+2)
GP: 2 (-9)
L: 2 (-5)
I&O: 37 (+13)
10
19
30
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 63 (+27)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 29 (-8)
SD: 3 (-3)
GP: 2 (-9)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
PBP: 0 (-5)
I&O: 22 (-2)
4
4
29
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the B&A opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 61 (+25)
FF: 34 (-3)
FG: 41 (+8)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 2 (-3)
A: 1
I&O: 14 (-9)
7
9
28
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterday’s Red C poll.
SF: 55 (+19)
FG: 40 (+7)
FF: 31 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 3 (-2)
GP: 3 (-8)
A: 2 (+1)
LP: 1 (-6)
I&O: 33 (+4)
7
11
25
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays IPSOS poll.
SF: 62 (+26)
FG: 37 (+4)
FF: 31 (-6)
SD: 5 (-1)
GP: 2 (-9)
LP: 1 (-6)
PBP: 1 (-4)
A: 1
I&O: 20 (-4)
3
8
26
If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the IPSOS opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 62 (+26)
FF: 33 (-4)
FG: 41 (+8)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 4 (-2)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-5)
3
6
24
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding last weeks’ Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 48 (+12)
FG: 44 (+11)
FF: 28 (-9)
SD: 5 (-1)
GP: 4 (-7)
PBP: 4 (-1)
A: 2 (+1)
L: 2 (-5)
I&O: 37 (+13)
15
8
24
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Red C opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 65 (+29)
FF: 32 (-5)
FG: 40 (+7)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 1 (-4)
A: 1
I&O: 14 (-8)
5
10
23
@PaulLaneLLM
The Irish Electoral system is not a direct % to seats match. The same reason why SF got the highest % last year but yet had the second highest number of seats.
For this particular situation, FG gain from GP and FF drop in support.
2
0
23
@ClogherHead1
The basic answer is just that this aggregates the 4 polling companies results. It doesn’t just take one poll.
Average has SF on 34.4%, FF on 16.5% and 20.7% for FG.
There’s more detail on the link and my pinned tweet. Full workings are available on the Patreon page.
3
2
21
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 68 (+32)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 34 (-3)
SD: 5 (-1)
GP: 2 (-9)
PBP: 2 (-3)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
I&O: 22 (-2)
4
6
21
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterdays B&A poll.
SF: 67 (+31)
FG: 40 (+7)
FF: 35 (-2)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 2 (-3)
GP: 1 (-10)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
I&O: 22 (-2)
5
4
22
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding today’s Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 55 (+19)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 31 (-6)
SD: 7 (+1)
GP: 3 (-8)
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 2 (+1)
L: 1 (-6)
I&O: 33 (+9)
3
10
21
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Red C poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 66 (+30)
FG: 40 (+7)
FF: 36 (-1)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 2 (-3)
GP: 1 (-10)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
I&O: 22 (-2)
5
3
21
@gavreilly
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Sunday Times/B&A opinion poll.
(Compared to previous predicted seats)
SF: 73 (+3)
FF: 28 (+6)
FG: 38
GP: 2 (+1)
LP: 6 (+4)
SD: 3 (-2)
PBP: 0 (-4)
A: 0 (-1)
I&O: 10 (-7)
7
6
19
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterdays B&A poll.
SF: 58 (+22)
FG: 38 (+5)
FF: 36 (-1)
SD: 3 (-3)
PBP: 3 (-2)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
I&O: 20 (-4)
4
7
18
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterday’s Red C poll.
SF: 65 (+29)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 32 (-5)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 4 (-1)
GP: 3 (-8)
A: 2 (+1)
LP: 1 (-6)
I&O: 23 (-1)
0
9
19
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays B&A poll.
SF: 62 (+26)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 32 (-5)
SD: 3 (-3)
PBP: 0 (-5)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
GP: 0 (-11)
I&O: 22 (-2)
1
7
18
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterday’s Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 61 (+25)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 31 (-6)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 3 (-2)
GP: 3 (-8)
A: 2 (+1)
LP: 1 (-6)
I&O: 29 (+5)
5
5
19
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Ireland Thinks opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 65 (+29)
FF: 35 (-2)
FG: 44 (+11)
GP: 1 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 0 (-1)
I&O: 9 (-14)
7
2
18
I have updated figures and data for the next poll that comes out. It’s looking very likely that SF will no longer have the most seats in the prediction. Independent Ireland are looking at doubling current seats based on the minimal data I have.
4
1
18
📣 If an NI Assembly Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Lucid Talk poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 33 (+6)
DUP: 31 (+6)
AP: 12 (-5)
UUP: 7 (-2)
SDLP: 4 (-4)
TUV: 1
PBP: 0 (-1)
GP: 0
I&O: 2
2
4
17
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding today’s IPSOS poll.
SF: 55 (+19)
FG: 40 (+7)
FF: 30 (-7)
SD: 6
PBP: 3 (-2)
GP: 3 (-8)
L: 2 (-5)
A: 2 (+1)
I&O: 33 (+4)
4
5
18
I’ll get to this next week, sorry for the delay!
POLL/POBALBHREITH — Dáil Éireann
SF: 22% (-7)
FG: 22% (+3)
FF: 17% (+1)
SD: 5% (-1)
GP: 4%
LAB: 3%
AON: 3%
PBP-S: 2%
INDs & Others: 23% (+3)
+/- vs. Bealtaine/May 2024
Via
@Ireland_Thinks
/
@TheSundayIndo
31 Bealtaine/May 2024
S: ~1,000
#Ireland
#Poll
#Vote2024
53
60
209
2
3
18
📣 If a NI Assembly Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding today’s Lucid Talk poll.
Compared to Current MLAs
SF: 31 (+4)
DUP: 29 (+4)
AP: 11 (-6)
UUP: 9 (+1)
SDLP: 6 (-2)
TUV: 3 (+2)
PBP: 1
GP: 0
I&O: 2
1
6
17
This is the new seat prediction based on only the new Red C poll (no other polls). Keep in mind that this is much less likely to be accurate.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 63 (+27)
FF: 23 (-14)
FG: 38 (+5)
GP: 2 (-9)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 7 (+1)
PBP: 3 (-2)
A: 0 (-1)
I&O: 23 (-1)
2
4
15
@sendboyle
Losing nearly 50% of votes has that effect surprisingly. In 2020, Only 7 constituencies even had more than 10% for Greens.
1
1
16
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterdays Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 59 (+23)
FG: 38 (+5)
FF: 33 (-4)
SD: 3 (-3)
PBP: 3 (-2)
GP: 2 (-9)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
I&O: 20 (-4)
3
4
16
This is the new seat prediction based on only todays B&A poll (no other polls). Keep in mind that this is much less likely to be accurate.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 66 (+30)
FF: 36 (-1)
FG: 36 (+3)
GP: 1 (-10)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 2 (-4)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 0 (-1)
I&O: 18 (-6)
2
6
15
After running some numbers to figure out what kind of polling %s for a realistic government without FG or FF. Below is what would be needed to get enough seats for SF, SD and maybe PBP to form a government regardless of how many extra seats are added:
3
3
14
@NextIrishGE
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Red C and B&A opinion polls.
(Compared to previous predicted seats)
SF: 70 (-2)
FF: 30 (-1)
FG: 39 (-1)
GP: 1 (+1)
LP: 0 (-2)
SD: 6 (+3)
PBP: 2 (+1)
A: 0 (-1)
I&O: 12 (+2)
2
10
15
@sendboyle
I didn’t even bother explaining that your 5% was incorrect again, as I have explained so often to you that this estimation is not based on one poll. Please stop crying because your team isn’t winning.
1
3
15
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the B&A opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 64 (+28)
FF: 30 (-7)
FG: 38 (+5)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 7 (+1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 19 (-5)
14
35
125
4
3
13
Why does Fine Gael gain 5 seats even though it’s aggregated vote % stays very similar?
In fact, from a simple calculation they should get 31 seats but instead get 38 (Up from 33 currently). I wanted to find out why the calculations expect this return, so I found out.
2
1
14
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding yesterdays Red C poll.
SF: 59 (+23)
FG: 38 (+5)
FF: 34 (-3)
SD: 3 (-3)
PBP: 3 (-2)
GP: 2 (-9)
LP: 1 (-6)
A: 1
I&O: 19 (-5)
5
5
13
This is Sinn Féin’s worst expected performance to date since these predictions started. With it also being the first time Aontú has reached 3 seats.
2
1
13
@McConnellDaniel
Thanks Daniel.
It is almost entirely numbers that already exist, ie polls, 2020 GE, ByElections and such. But transfers do have some adjustments.
Regarding local issues, the idea is that if they existed in 2020 they exist now.
The link has some estimates on the redraw.
0
1
13
New seat prediction based on the new constituency changes and new polling data.
Majority needs 87 seats (Compared to current seat count)
SF: 66 (+30)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 38 (+1)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 2 (-3)
GP: 1 (-10)
L: 1 (-6)
A: 1
I&O: 21 (-3)
3
5
12
Working on
@ElecCommIRL
changes.
I have rough figures for a 174 seat prediction, but there could be any number of mistakes in the workings as I haven’t gone through every part of the calculations that predict this.
So far it seems to benefit SF, FF and PBP most, surprisingly.
1
1
11
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding today’s Ireland Thinks poll.
SF: 62 (+26)
FG: 39 (+6)
FF: 34 (-3)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 3 (-2)
GP: 2 (-9)
A: 2 (+1)
LP: 1 (-6)
I&O: 26 (+2)
4
4
11
In nearly 2 years of these predictions, this is both the lowest seat count predicted for SF and the highest for I&O.
1
2
8
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Ireland Thinks opinion poll.
Compared to Current TDs
SF: 62 (+26)
FF: 29 (-8)
FG: 41 (+8)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 2 (-3)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-6)
8
39
98
0
0
9
Compared to most recent poll:
SF: 37% (+6% needed)
FF: 14% (-2% needed)
FG: 20% (-2%)
GP: 3% (-1%)
L: 3% (Same)
SD: 7% (Same)
PBP: 4% (+1%)
A: 2% (-1%)
I&O: 10% (-1%)
2
1
8
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Ireland Thinks opinion poll.
Compared to Current TDs
SF: 62 (+26)
FF: 29 (-8)
FG: 41 (+8)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 2 (-3)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-6)
8
39
98
0
1
9
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Red C opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 61 (+25)
FF: 32 (-5)
FG: 41 (+8)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 7 (+1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-6)
12
18
40
2
1
8
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Red C opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 61 (+25)
FF: 33 (-4)
FG: 41 (+8)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 2 (-5)
SD: 3 (-3)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 19 (-4)
0
6
8
For example SF would need an additional 6% than the most recent Ireland Thinks Poll to get the 37% required.
It looks like this is the easiest way to get what I set out in the first tweet.
An interesting return from this is also a 3 seat return for Aontu based on 181 seats.
1
1
7
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the B&A opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 61 (+25)
FF: 34 (-3)
FG: 41 (+8)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 2 (-3)
A: 1
I&O: 14 (-9)
7
9
28
3
0
7
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding todays Red C poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 64 (+28)
FF: 31 (-6)
FG: 38 (+5)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 19 (-5)
22
44
138
0
0
7
@KellySorc
It’s actually up 2 seats from the last prediction if you wanted to check. This takes all 4 most recent polls. Not just one poll.
0
0
7
@gavreilly
📣 New seat number predictions according to latest poll.
SF: 72
FF: 25
FG: 41
GP: 1
LP: 2
SD: 5
PBP: 2
A: 1
I&O: 11
1
2
7
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the B&A opinion poll.
(Compared to previous predicted seats)
SF: 67
FF: 37 (+1)
FG: 42
GP: 0
LP: 1
SD: 6
PBP: 0 (-1)
A: 0
I&O: 7
2
2
6
This surprisingly had no changes to the predicted seats from last week.
POLL/POBALBHREITH — Dáil Éireann
SF: 34% (+3)
FF: 21% (-1)
FG: 18%
GP: 3% (-1)
LAB : 3% (-1)
SD: 2% (-3)
PBP-S: 2%
AON: 1%
+/- vs. Meitheamh/June 2023
Via
@IpsosIreland
/
@IrishTimes
September/Meán Fómhair 2023
S: —
#Ireland
#Poll
0
27
82
2
0
7
Please keep in mind that this does not factor in retirements, new candidates, local public opinion or the planned new seats that will be coming in.
I want to show what national opinion predicts for each constituency.
2
1
7
I created a document for a full breakdown of the prediction. It does not show the formulas or excel file. It does show a breakdown by constituency and some details on each party's predictions. It also includes a timeline of all predictions over time.
1
0
6
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 61 (+25)
FF: 35 (-2)
FG: 39 (+6)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 5 (-1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 18 (-5)
12
11
50
0
1
7
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Ireland Thinks opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 65 (+29)
FF: 36 (-1)
FG: 44 (+11)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 0 (-1)
I&O: 8 (-15)
5
0
7
@PaulLaneLLM
Exactly. I don’t leave my opinion impact these predictions, it’s just simply that in situations where the gov parties are in competition for a seat on transfers, FG will win it more often than not.
1
0
6
@NextIrishGE
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Ireland Thinks opinion poll.
(Compared to previous predicted seats)
SF: 67 (-3)
FF: 39 (+9)
FG: 39
GP: 2 (+1)
LP: 0
SD: 6
PBP: 0 (-2)
A: 0
I&O: 7 (-5)
2
3
5
Obviously this is all an estimate from current polling and is just interesting to look at and calculate seats. You can have opinions, especially if you live in a specified constituency. This is just an attempt at estimating the seat count.
0
0
6
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the B&A opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 64 (+28)
FF: 30 (-7)
FG: 38 (+5)
GP: 0 (-11)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 7 (+1)
PBP: 0 (-5)
A: 1
I&O: 19 (-5)
14
35
125
0
1
6
One note about the plan for the next poll. I will be incorporating retiring TDs and the typical effects that has on individual seats. The changes that would have had here is minor with only a couple more seats changing hands.
0
0
6
📣 If an Irish General Election was called tomorrow 📣
New predicted seat numbers with new data from the Red C opinion poll.
(Compared to Current TDs)
SF: 65 (+29)
FF: 32 (-5)
FG: 40 (+7)
GP: 0 (-12)
LP: 1 (-6)
SD: 6
PBP: 1 (-4)
A: 1
I&O: 14 (-8)
5
10
23
0
2
5
📣 If an NI Assembly Election was called tomorrow 📣
This is the new aggregated seat prediction after adding the Lucid Talk poll.
SF: 33 (+6)
DUP: 31 (+6)
AP: 11 (-6)
UUP: 7 (-2)
SDLP: 4 (-4)
TUV: 1
PBP: 0 (-1)
GP: 1 (+1)
I&O: 2
1
0
6
Currently I have a gain of:
6 seats for FF
5 for SF
1 for FG
1 for GP
2 for PBP
And a loss of 1 seat for Independents.
This is solely from the changes on the Commissions recommendations.
5
0
5
I have not separated these 2 as different parties in the above dataset yet as adding or removing a new party to the predications requires a lot of work and likely would cause errors that would need to be fixed and I’m too lazy.
0
0
5
@martin_condon
True. I’m just trying to give more meaning to what Polls mean than just percentages.
2
0
5
@Zahn_Zee
Anywhere that has a retiring TD actually receives a negative modifier in this prediction model to hopefully account for the potential fall in support.
1
1
5
@politics_w_sami
In my opinion, either FF and SF and some small parties/independents or current government and smaller parties/independents.
Neither would have a strong majority though.
1
0
5