Ireland Thinks
@ireland_thinks
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"Should those that arrive to Ireland from abroad be required to quarantine in a hotel?"
Yes: 90% (+15)
No: 7% (-11)
Don't Know: 2% (-3)
Nationally representative sample of 1,247 conducted on January 16th, 2021.
(Comparison with November [Yes 75.5, No 18.75, DK 5.75])
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"If you had a vote in the upcoming US Presidential Election which of the following Candidates would you vote for?"
Poll October 17th
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After much deliberation on the 8th amendment the oireachtas committee recommend the referendum question to be on unrestricted abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy
The first poll is in today's Irish Daily Mail reveals a majority to be in support:
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Increased support for a united Ireland in the latest poll for The Irish Daily Mail.
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This is our poll from JUNE. Tomorrow's poll in the paper was conducted up to and including today.
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Christmas special:
Fine Gael 28 (nc)
Fianna Fáil 25 (-1)
Sinn Féin 15 (-1)
Greens 7 (nc)
Labour 5 (-1)
Soc Dems 3 (nc)
Sol PbP 3 (+1)
Ind & Oths 16 (+2)
Sample size 1,585
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Some interesting polling for
@thejournal_ie
and The Good Information Project on housing: -
Who's to blame? Who can solve it?
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How representative is twitter?
Party support broken for each type of twitter user - from our July poll.
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🚨 The public verdict on the latest covid restrictions to be released at 8pm. 🚨
Details including age breakdown in the Mail on Sunday
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The government announced the following restrictions...
I agree with the new restrictions: 65%
I disagree with the new restrictions: 30%
Big age-divide. More details in tomorrow's
@IrishMailSunday
.
Representative sample size: 1,089.
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Leo leads Micheál on top four issues.
More uncertainty around Brexit. Support for Micheál among SF supporters.
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It's Christmas.
A poll on the 'Fairytale of New York' (from November):
88% Disagree with changing lyrics
6% Don't know
6% Agree with changing
Merry Christmas!
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If this month's poll were an emoji it would probably be something like 🤬
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Big poll in tomorrow's
@IrishMailSunday
. Significant changes since October. All conducted since announcements made yesterday.
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Poll in the can for the Mail on Sunday.
Sample size 1,200. Polling period 9am to 1pm today. Smarter, better, faster polling.
One result is that by popular demand this month's donation is to the Irish Hospice Foundation.
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Our simple estimate of how an immediate election would shape the Dáil on the basis of (1) the December polls (IT, Ipsos, B&A), and (2) the sigmoid relationship between seats and votes from the last 11 elections.
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Housing and homelessness continues to dominate most important issue as our poll features in today's
@irishdailymail
.
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Next Dáil may incl. FG+Lab+Grn as a viable coalition.
(Based on RTÉ/Red C Exit Poll and model of the historical relationship between votes & seats)
Then again, FF are the political equivalent of Germany on the World Cup. Ordinary to the untrained eye, but never write them off!
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Looking at party support:
@fiannafailparty
supporters tend to be most opposed to the referendum,
@sinnfeinireland
close behind, while supporters of the
@SocDems
,
@solidarityie
and
@greenparty_ie
tend to be the most in favour.
#8thref
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Highly anticipated poll on referendum on abortion appearing in tomorrow's
@irishdailymail
#latelate
#8thref
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Our poll in today's Mail on Sunday was conducted between 9.30pm on Friday and 5pm on Saturday. It was conducted on a selected panel representative of the public according to age, gender, past vote, education, religious adherence and political interest based on the 2020 exit poll.
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Poll for
@irishdailymail
:
"If a referendum were held to repeal the 8th amendment that is to make abortion unrestricted during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy how would you vote?"
Analysis:
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Our Mail on Sunday polls since the general election reveal the covid rally very slowly wearing off for Fine Gael, with some recovery in the Fianna Fáil numbers in recent months.
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Just finished calculating our latest poll for the Irish Daily Mail and, well, things are getting very interesting.
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@drdoireann
@LeoVaradkar
@MichealMartinTD
@SimonHarrisTD
You're not far off.
Our nationally representative poll conducted on Saturday, January 16th had approximately 90% in favour of hotel quarantine.
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Poll in today's
@irishdailymail
which raises serious questions about the publication of a "secret poll" showing Gallagher 10 points behind Michael D Higgins.
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Fine Gael 33
Fianna Fáil 26
Sinn Féin 16
Labour 6
Solidarity PBP 3
Green 2
Soc Dems 2
Independent/Others 12
Happy new year!
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If talks fail another general election is the most popular option.
A little polling innovation where the results were weighted mid-stream and the least popular option was dropped. Each round roughly equal in sample size.
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In case anyone is concerned, the responses below are automatically deleted.
Each invite has unique information stored in the text which is added (hidden) to their poll response. Responses (eg birthday) are then matched back to the invitee's past responses for validation.
I took this poll 4 times and forward it to my mates to do it too... these results are neither accurate nor reliable. Many many angry FF members took this and probably answered the same as a non-party member. So what happens when the bots get it?
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Irish Daily Mail/Ireland thinks poll.
FG up 6 since April.
Sample size 1,300
MoE 2.8%
Fieldwork 12th to 16th June.
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Some additional topical results from this month's poll include this one on sick pay.
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No, you can't manipulate the poll by sharing the link.🙄
Each person invited to take part is sent a unique url incl a url parameter. This is passed to the survey as a hidden field & when the data is downloaded IDs are matched to the invite list. Duplicates automatically deleted.
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To understand the Fine Gael rally in 2020 we can look to Thatcher's 1982 Falkland's Rally for which there are striking similarities attesting to the idea that the size of a rally is not just a function of the absence of criticism but also the number of voters 'available to rally'
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Unpublished poll from April in relation to presidential contest. Of all potential rivals Miriam O'Callaghan was the most popular of all and of course was unannounced at the time.
Support for Michael D is extremely large as against current announced rivals.
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Ranked attributes of probability to support Sinn Féin from the UCD/Ireland thinks Exit Poll:
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Just a slight clarification, the question asked here was:
"Ireland is taking in 195 refugees from Afghanistan in response to developments in the country. Is this number...?"
This poll and some fantastic coverage and analysis appears in today's
@IrishMailSunday
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Relationship between Peter Casey vote and Travelling community per '000 population.
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Running average of party support figures. 2018 is pretty stable apart from differences between polling companies that result in different estimates for Sinn Féin, which results in SF apparently wiggling about but that is dependent on which company has published figures.
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Half the population report that their mental health has disimproved in the past six months.
This rises to 64% of those aged 18-34.
See:
@aware
@therapyhubie
@PietaHouse
@SamaritansIRL
@SpunOut
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The relationship between tenure and position on abortion.
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Details of the latest Ireland Thinks poll here:
Including the Mary Lou effect:
"In relation to Sinn Féin: Mary Lou MacDonald is replacing Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin. Would this make you...
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Here's an interesting one. Change in support between poll in December and the one released today shows considerable slippage within the Fianna Fáil & Sinn Féin support blocks.
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Support and Opposition to the introduction of Level 5 per last Saturday's Poll as in the Irish Mail on Sunday reveals the left-right nature of support and opposition to restrictions. (Note that it is understood that 'Other' today reflects a far-right vote).
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Donations...
€500 to the
@TempleStreetHos
for January. Thanks to everyone that takes part in our surveys.
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It would appear that much of the Green surge is at the expense of Fine Gael.
Composition of the green vote in terms of 2016 vote (Excluding Non-voters):
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Changes in popularity of political leaders in the past three months. (Average 0-10 Ratings).
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Sinn Féin supporters most likely to favour a relationship with the UK over a relationship with the EU.
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Comfortable majority in favour of a tax on vacant properties
@PMVTrust
as reported in
@IrishTimes
and
@rte
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Support for making facemasks mandatory in enclosed public spaces at 68% to 21% (76% excl. Don't knows).
From Ireland Thinks/Mail on Sunday, last Sunday.
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Latest United Ireland poll. Sample size 1,200. Fieldwork 27th Feb to 3 March.
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🚨 A snap poll on the latest restrictions is now the field.
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Our recent poll compares very well with the census and TFI passenger numbers since 2016.
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Changes in Party support since the General Election.
Two main stories: the 'Leo Leap' and the steady decline of Independents and Others
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Delighted to say that €500 goes to
@DownSyndromeIRL
. The most popular choice among participants in our March poll. 🙌
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Ireland Thinks poll in today's Mail on Sunday;
- Voting intention
- Support and opposition to the coalition
- Making facemasks mandatory
- Will people go back to the pubs
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With due caution to samle size poll points to overwhelming support for a Dublin Mayor among millennials
#irelandthinks
#dublinmayor
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By popular demand this month's donation is to ALONE. If you have any suggestions for next month (note that last month it was Pieta House), would love to know below.
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Really interesting polling results with
@LucidTalk
to be revealed on
@BBCSpotlightNI
tonight.
LT with
@ireland_thinks
recently carried out a major all-Ireland (both NI & ROI) poll-project for the
@BBCSpotlightNI
programme. 2,845 NI responses were used for the NI representative results - announced tonight (20/4) on BBC Spotlight at 9pm, BBC1:
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Thanks to
@JackandJillcf
. The most popular charity this month therefore receiving this month's donation of €500 for the great work they do.
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Results as reported on by
@JanOSullivanTD
in
@Independent_ie
Most support is for water charges on excessive use.
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Update to our latest Ireland Thinks Issue Index: Climate Change up to 5.3%
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Only responses from those formally invited to take part were included in the final poll. Each respondent was given a unique link which pulled up their past responses. Multiple responses from the same link and responses that did not match the original respondent were omitted.
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"House Effects" in Irish polling since the 2016 general election.
(Using a generalised additive model to account for the non-linear nature of the time when each poll was conducted followed by parametric plots to estimate the predicted effects)
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Should politicians have substitutes so that they can take maternity/paternity leave or if seriously ill?
64% Yes
29% No
7% Don't Know
January 16th 2021
Sample size 1,247
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Teaming up with
@thejournal_ie
with some new data journalism projects.
Our second here explores working from home.
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Note that the margin of error will be larger in the two charts on the right due to the relatively small samples for these two sets as they amount relatively a small proportion of the overall population.
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@irishdailymail
To understand more about "Rather not says" & "Don't Knows" and the strength of opinion underpinning either side we asked people to place themselves on a 7-point scale from extremely pro-choice to extremely pro-life. Strength of opinion is just as strong on either side.
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Confidence in the government's ability to tackle the pandemic has lifted significantly.
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Broken down by region, the three Ulster counties revealing a greater level of dependence on open borders with the UK.
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Campaign effects aside (ridiculous of course): What an early election would mean today per the 5 most recent post-Sep polls.
(Essentially the same: either FF or FG has to go in with Sinn Féin, or FF and FG come up with a new agreement).
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