Patrick Condon
@pmcondon2
Followers
4K
Following
2K
Media
437
Statuses
5K
UBC Prof. in urban design I treat all with respect - I ask the same. Blocks for those who dont. Book on why non market housing is our only hope. Link below
Vancouver, British Columbia
Joined May 2018
Vancouver. 1980 vs now. A very amazing urban development. Succesful in every way except one. Its no longer affordable. Adding density did not lead to affordability. The reverse happened. NA's most expensive housing.
212
278
1K
Vancouver tripled the number of housing units in this center city since 1970. No other center city in NA came close. If adding supply led to lowered prices, Vancouver should have NA lowest prices. It has the highest. Why?
131
122
425
Fifteen percent of Vancouver housing is non market housing. Predominantly co-ops (shown in map) and predominantly built between 1974 and 1990. Neo liberal trends brought that to a halt in the 1990s. If we had continued to build non market at that rate the proportion would now be
43
90
340
Disapointingly, over the decades, the attempts made by me and many others to bring down housing cost by adding supply, failed. If adding supply led to lower cost, Vancouver should have the cheapest housing in NA. Instead it has the most expensive.
62
102
308
A cleaned up version of a recent presentation expaining why non market housing is our only hope. A link to the pdf is below.
30
113
289
Puting this out there. Vienna has 50 percent non market housing. This puts downward preassure on the land market there making themarket sector housing half theprice of similar housing in Paris.
18
58
230
Pre press graph shows Vancouver built far more housing units than any other NA centre city. If adding new supply led to cheaper housing Vancouver should have NA cheapest housing. It has the most expensive. Believing in the supply fairy is believing in the tooth fairy (sorry
39
93
227
Supply wont fix this. There is plenty of supply. For the investor class.
23
81
193
Scientists and other UBC staff march on May Day. Even research scientists cant afford the rent. Yet the UBC 2050 vision calls for selling off the remaining land to the same real estate speculators responsible for out of control housing price. House your staff UBC.
17
56
186
Now that political dust has settled-sort of-can we talk about "supply and demand" for housing? Vancouver tripled housing units/supply since 1970. All of it "infill". No other center city comes close. This level of new supply should have led to lower prices. Nope. Highest in NA.
34
83
187
Visualization of Broadway, Vancouver blanket rezoning at build out. The sad part is this will not make housing affordable. This is what has happened to Vancouverism. SAD. More in Broken City.
65
45
178
The problem in a nutshell. Upzoning with no requirement for social benefit is a god send for land speculators, not renters or first time buyers. From IMCL conference - Newport RI.
36
80
179
Its not about supply. Something else is forcing prices higher.
More housing per capita in the US today than at any point in history.
45
42
164
Very well explained article telling us why upzoning does not make housing cheaper. Density is good for lots of reasons. Making housing cheaper is not one of them.
14
56
172
I offer here just one relevant (and disturbing) empirical example that would seem to disprove Glaeser’s theory. The City of Vancouver, since the 1960’s, when this center city was already “built out,” (with no undesignated unoccupied lots) has more than tripled the number of
37
43
164
FACT: Cities where building new housing is profitable are not cities where prices or rents come down. Sorry.
14
43
164
DRAFT chart showing Vancouver has added more new housing as a proportion of the total, added more density such that only TO, San Francisco and NYC are denser, and that our reward for adding all this density and new housing is the highest home prices in N. America.
36
77
154
Not exactly a mea culpa. But close. Conclusion to current research article. For decades, I and others have championed the cause of mixed-use, mixed-income, and diverse housing types as the cornerstone of sustainable and equitable urban design. I believed, as many of us did,
52
68
161
Mark me down as one of the "small group of academics" who doubt that building luxury rentals will "trickle down" (filtering) to create affordability for wage earners.
18
41
149
DRAFT re Vancouver Broadway plan: . Friends and neighbors,. We find ourselves with a plan motivated by a falsehood—an unsupported belief that removing planning and development controls for new market rental towers along the Broadway corridor will lower rents. This is an
24
59
149
BC Legislature blames planning for high housing costs. Bill 44, 46, 47 pass in a rush. Bills eliminate city planning (automatic approval of market housing towers within all circles shown - overuling city approved area plans) effectively ending local planning democracy. Why? To
36
61
137
"If we build more housing, the argument goes, people will have more choices, and rent will be lower. The main problem with this “supply-side” argument is that it is not true." .
37
56
140
"Policymakers are now acknowledging it wasn’t a supply side issue. They originally attributed the rise in home prices to regulatory hurdles. Lifting those measures boosted land values, actually reducing the amount of building.". Oh. To mitigate this,.
18
68
147
Its about time Harvard!."Research from around the world shows that more permissive zoning rules do not, by themselves, lead to a major increase in housing supply, let alone more affordable housing. The truth is that the market itself needs to be fixed.". .
13
81
140
I just cant say this enough. The problem is not that we have a shortage of housing. The problem is that when we add density land prices go up. No benefit to renters or first time buyers. Look at this out of control land price inflation in Vancouver. Go here for more.
24
44
139
The inventor of the whole idea of supply and demand warned that, unless controlled, land Rent (or land monopoly if you prefer) would suck both workers and entrepreneurs dry. Thats what is happening again.
15
35
134
This doesnt have to our new city. Brentwood in Burnaby BC. Expensive to build and maintain. GHG source. Energy wasters. Selling for $1,300 a sq. ft. Be better Vancouver region.
51
19
130
BREAKING: Posting on Vancouver's clown car real estate market - by Anonymous. "These projects, while often framed as solutions to housing shortages, have, in reality, contributed to the exacerbation of already soaring land values."
17
54
126
Long-ish interview about my new book Broken City. "If adding density to an already built-out city automatically led to a more affordable city, Vancouver should have North America’s cheapest housing. It has North America’s most expensive.".
8
61
125
In this months Canadian Macleans Magazine. "Between 1970 and 2020, the city tripled the number of homes within its limits, primarily by adding density to already built-up areas, but the population only rose by around 70 per cent. No other major city in.
20
53
126
Chart shows no other centre city in NA has added more housing density, as a percent of total (200%), while no other NA city saw a bigger gap open between median income and home prices (600%) than Vancouver. Adding supply didn't make housing cheaper. Something else happened
20
56
120
Note to Obama from Vancouver. Vancouver tripled the number of housing units in the city, all through infill. Infill is good for lots of reasons. Turns out lowering prices was not one of them. Highest home prices in NA. Should be cheapest, no?
16
36
114
In today’s Vancouver Sun. Summary of my new book: Broken City. “It’s not about the supply of buildings. It’s about the wildly inflated price of urban dirt”.
16
50
114
If you want to know why housing costs so much more than the average wage earner can afford - in many cities - read this. HINT: Its not about "supply constraints." Its about the arrival of a global economy based on assets, not labor.
14
40
115
Oh. … And I am officially against the idea that the housing market should be deregulated in favour of trickle down housing. I have seen this movie. It does not end well.
9
31
110
Well. at least one municipal government in the Vancouver region gets it. Burnaby to build non market housing as only viable solution to housing affordability crisis.
2
33
109
“Mortgages are increasingly out of reach not because it's so much more expensive to build a home & not because planning policies are too restrictive, but because the cost of a home in the hottest global markets is now governed by the price of dirt below it,” Broken City out now
12
44
111
@Over9000Jon @BMiller3__ @Bratt_world @vancolour Building equity and land value appreciation is a thing.
2
0
106
“We’ve had 50 years of adding supply in Vancouver, tripling the number of housing units since the 1960s,” Condon says, but the gap between the median price of housing in Vancouver and median household incomes has increased sixfold. “If adding new housing.
15
41
107
"A city that cant supply affordable housing for our sons and daughters and the service workers who make our city run is a Broken City.".CBC interview on my new book.
7
39
100
"We cant expect housing to 'filter' and appreciate at the same time". Its land price that's making housing unaffordable - and allowing new density without insisting on affordability wont fix it.
10
31
90
Those who are concerned about housing costs, live in the Anglosphere, and who participate in this forum are invited to DM with mailing address for a free copy of my book Broken City. My hope is that you will spread the word on social media and elsewhere. Sample chapter:
14
32
101
Vancouver. It could be worse. China house prices are 24 times (or more) average wages. Vancouver 12 times more. Anything over 4 times is considered unaffordable. China a country that is building millions of homes. And yet the housing industry is now crashing (multiple
28
32
97
It takes time. But dont let anyone tell you that you cant shift to over 50 percent permanently affordable housing in modern capitalist liberal democracies. Vienna did.
9
32
95
The author concluded, “short-term, local-level impacts of upzoning are higher property prices but no additional new housing construction.”. See why in Broken City.
4
56
96
Today this happened. Urban design professor Patrick Condon plans run for mayor to fix Vancouver’s ‘completely broken’ housing market via @torontostar.
4
29
87
When people buy homes they are really buying land. The reason home prices are out of control is because land prices are way way out of control. This problem has a very long history with very litte being done about it.
5
32
94
Nobody in a position to help really wants home prices to fall. " People making loans on homes, building homes, developing property, or working within the real estate market have many of their mistakes forgiven by appreciating property values".
14
38
90
Here is the thing. All the value emenating from productivity increases was not expended on goods and services (it didnt go to wage earners), but into asset wealth growth. The biggest asset class, globally, is now (you guessed it) urban land.
8
42
90
Austin Texas, weirdly, is used by some as an example of how deregulating housing construction leads to affordability. Really?
37
21
94
From an economic geographer at UCLA and the London School of Economics. Food for thought on upzoning. "Affordability has to be tackled directly; it’s not going to be created through aggregate supply and trickle-down.". Adding density is good for many reasons. Sadly
15
39
90
"(RIchmond Mayor ) Brodie added that his community has been steadily increasing density along transit corridors for nearly two decades, but prices have soared anyhow.". He's right. The market cant fix this problem. The market IS the problem. Non market.
15
35
90
@Lanefab In Vancouver we, as you know, have not had single family areas for decades. My point is ever and always that the market has failed due to out of control land price inflation and that non market housing must now be required rather than largely banished.
7
8
86
WARNING: Empirical facts challenging supply/demand theory ahead!. So if anything, the need for the number of housing units relative to the population of NYC has gone down slightly over the last forty years (each 1,000 people only require 392 units of.
19
37
88
I dont know how many times I need to say this but the whole idea of community amenity contributions is to capture "land lift" increase in land value consequent to rezoning. If you eliminate CAC all you do is put more money into pockets of land speculators.
13
24
80
This is not about housing "supply," Something else is at work. Build non-market housing at scale now!
15
29
83
Reducing housing costs is crucial. Eliminating permitting costs wont help. Nor will cheapening construction codes. The problem is the ever inflating price of land. Impact fees stream landowner unearned profits into social benefit.
22
40
86
Its so sad that Vancouver which once led the world (70s, 80s, 90s) in ensuring housing to all has fallen so so very far.
9
13
81
My comments to council on the Broadway plan. Patrick M. Condon.Dec 11, 2024. Good evening, and thank you for listening. The Broadway Plan raises many issues, but for me, they all center on affordability. I will focus my remarks on just this crucial topic. In recent years, both
7
37
87
Number one seller in Urban Architecture and Land Use Planning. Its not the NY Times but its not nothing. Thank you readers.
6
18
81
Updated text. Data shows no centre city in NA added more infill housing than Vancouver. Also, no NA centre city has higher home prices.
12
32
83
Adam Smith on land "rent" (aka landlords). "A tax upon ground-rents would not raise the rents of houses. It would fall altogether upon the owner of the ground-rent, who acts always as a monopolist, and exacts the greatest rent which can be got for the use of his ground."
5
25
83
Housing “supply” bumper sticker for the day: The housing market will not build in places where home prices are going down. Duh.
20
26
84
Here is the link to my testimony at the House of commons. "No other centre city in North America has come even remotely close to this heroic achievement - this tripling of housing supply - in just four decades. Unfortunately, all of our efforts to keep housing.
7
31
85
Its obvious. Non market housing is the way out of our housing crisis. Vancouver has 26,000 units. 15 percent of all housing. It would be 30 percent by now if we had not stopped building post 1980's neo-liberal enthusiasms. How did that work out?.
7
35
84
Finally something in the legislature that really WOULD make housing more affordable.
24
17
77
Today in Vancouver. Is it any wonder that land in this town costs $600 per "buildable" square foot? No way on earth to lose money if you hold any land at all. Nutz.
24
13
78
I think this will be the cover illustration for my next book: Shattered City.
24
12
80
"Critics, such as UBC professor Patrick Condon and York University professor Mark Winfield, argue that it’s a business model that only exacerbates the housing problem because housing for investment leads to a glut of tiny units and drives up overall land.
9
36
83
Duh. It’s not about supplying demand folks. I wish it was, but it’s not. It’s also not about planning rules. It’s just not.
17
31
76
There is something strange about this Vancouver election. Most of the candidates for mayor/council are saying yes there’s a housing crisis. So what we should do is do the same stuff that we’ve been doing so far. And if we just do more of it the results will be way, way better.
10
22
76
Happy new year everybody!! . Especially those who think I am a NIMBY, which is freekin hilarious !!.
11
8
80
@Simon_OByrne My feeling, based on evidence from comparing "no build" cities like SF to "build like hell" cities like Vancouver, is that it makes little difference. As crazy as that seems, empirically that seems to be the case.
18
5
69
Worth a repost with this summary:. The post discusses the relationship between new housing supply and housing prices in North American cities from 1960-2020, suggesting a complex correlation beyond simple supply and demand dynamics. It highlights Vancouver's significant increase.
DRAFT chart showing Vancouver has added more new housing as a proportion of the total, added more density such that only TO, San Francisco and NYC are denser, and that our reward for adding all this density and new housing is the highest home prices in N. America.
6
38
79
Don’t just up zone HOPING for affordability. Up zone INSISTING on it!.
12
31
77
Its too bad that the province assumes that the reason for high home prices is the recalcitrance of local democratic decision makers. Its more than a little surprising that they would come to this conclusion given our local experience. For example, the.
12
31
73
Lots of benefits to this model of development for Jericho lands in Vancouver. 50% affordable is completely possible. The video is here.
26
16
75
Two more academics weigh in on the Vancouver region's housing price dumpster fire. Hint: "unleashing the market" is not a likely solution. Non market housing at scale is.
9
31
70
Nothing new under the sun. Just this century’s version of gentrification. But this time pushing out the middle class too.
This new study of NYC neighbourhoods reveals upzoning results in gentrification and INCREASED housing prices, displacing low income households the most. High intensity upzoning results in high intensity price increases. Thoughts @KahlonRav @bcndp ?.
7
23
77
At least one person in the BC legislature understands that the problem is not home price but land price. Adam Olsen, Green MLA Saanich. "Each subdivision of that original single title fractures the land and unlocks more wealth for those who own it. It.
12
26
71
Even with a tripling of units built in Vancouver between 1960 and now, the price per sq ft of market housing quadrupled in real terms. Salaries stayed stubornly flat in real terms. Adding density was good for many reasons. I am a fan. But low prices did not result.
15
29
66
Its pretty hard to claim that local democracy is stifling housing production, as the provincial NDP has done (in bills 44, 46, 47) when Vancouver council unanimously passes a project far from downtown which has a residential density higher than Hong Kong.
13
32
71
Former Vancouver City Councillor Colleen Hardwick explains that it was neighbourhood activism that stopped the gutting of Chinatown and Downtown by an 8 lane freeway. History shows the validity of grass roots municipal democracy.
11
24
68
Dayum. how much evidence do we need that the housing problem is not about supply. Its about speculation on land value.
Canada’s housing market recently saw a big surge of investor demand. "But landlords usually try to buy property that rents for more than it costs to run. Recently a large share have become speculators that subsidize tenants. We call them SPECULORDS."
9
23
68
Cover for forthcoming book of mine from UBC Press. Earlier version of similar book for free here:
5
22
70
HOUSING: OZ is the same as Vancouver. Plenty of planning approvals for new housing. NIMBY is not the problem. Other things are the problem. "As written here before, the policy failure decades in the making has been federal and state governments steadily.
6
23
69
Rent controls work: They don’t reduce housing supply but they do limit profit via @torontostar.
10
24
66
This is a meaningful empirical fact that undercuts the theory that it is impediments to supply, imposed by planning and local democracy, causing high home prices.
it took about five microseconds of prices dropping in the condo market before housing people are talking about about "oversupply," falling prices being a "downside," and investors taking units off the market as an "upside" possibility .
8
23
68
That's the sound of folks in the premier's office going "oh shit". VANCOUVER SUN: "Now we know why Ravi Kahlon refused to release housing model".
20
28
66
“If your only reason to give up land rights is affordability,” he said, “you are in for a big disappointment“ .
6
30
69