pandawatch
@pandawatch88
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Investing in China. Not a real bear.
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Mauboussin and Damodaran are truly exhausting. Reminds me everytime of Munger criticism “The craving for that physics-style precision".
Dude, 20x PE is just the present value of earnings growing at 5% (GDP+) discounted at 10% (your return requirement). Or 3% and 8%. Whatever.
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For all of you treasure hunting usd300m 5x PE microcaps, remember Visa and Mastercard are a 15-20x bagger from usd50bn market cap at 20x PE in 2011 (pre GFC even more)
How:
12% top line cagr
margin from 50 to 60%
PE to 30x
FCF buyback 25% nosh
Voila
Todd Combs saw it. I didn't.
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How come no Nick Sleep fanboy speaks about him selling half of Amazon, his only stock, to buy Asos in 2021.
The Art of Cleaning a Motorcycle whatever and 10 years of stoic guru investor letters, then this. Oh man.
Huge respect for doing 10x, big brain or big luck? both ok.
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Whichever bank is executing the $BABA stock buybacks should be commended for the skill of loading up usd5bn worth of stock in 1Q24 while not letting the price run up a tick 👏🏻
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@SanderTordoir
@TheEconomist
30% of Chinese industrial companies are loss-making you say? Those are rookie numbers.
40% of the Russell 2000 is loss-making.
Context is everything.
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@DavidInglesTV
Mmm yes and no.
No, China just bit lower than US
Meta 25x PE vs Tencent at 20x
Nike 22x vs Anta 17x
No, China actually higher than US
LRCX 26x vs Naura 37x
Monster 30x vs Eastroc 35x
And yes, of course
Tesla 60x vs BYD 20x
Dash ♾️ vs Meituan 30x
JPM 12x vs ICBC 4x
...
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"China is soo cheapp". No. China PE is low, not cheap, and it is due to the horrific revenue deceleration 17-21 cagr vs 21-23 cagr. And no buyback or dividend is coming to save you.
If you want +20x PE back on your fav stonk, management needs to show they can accelerate growth.
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Both JD and Alibaba selling equity at 35% premium to repurchase shares at market.
Financially logical, but current investors have no tolerance for even the mildest forms of corp fin craft. Read the room.
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$BABA up 4% premarket but frankly the results are mediocre.
I get everyone is excited about share buyback, but:
-zero net income growth
-decline in fcf
-domestic ecommerce flat
-cloud revenue decline (ex inhouse)
-higher losses in cross border ecommerce
-losses in Ant
Etc
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@karri_tweets
@TurnerNovak
👍🏼
also
- always create competition, or the perception of competition
- if its PE buyer, have your working capital calculation ready, or it will cost you money at the 11th hour
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Kind reminder that WMT sold usd3.6bn of JD at 11% discount or 25 a share around a month ago. Life.
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China is 20% of Starbucks' global store portfolio, and China store sales declined 11% this quarter.
Frankly Starbucks in China is where old people go for a nap. Almost embarrassing to walk around with their cups, means you don't know better. Only a Moutai colab can save them.
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Good results by Yum China $YUMC. Stock was down 25-35% in Q2, investors expected rough numbers but Joey Wat is a fighter and held ground on sales and profit via lower prices but more transactions. Committed to return usd1.5bn in 2024 via divi/buybacks, thats 11.5% of market cap.
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PDD investor call ended and price still down 18% PM. They continue to give zero fuks about providing clarity, disclosure, or shareholder friendly tokens (could they have announced a divi? They have usd45bn of cash in the balance sheet, are they saving it to buy JD or what? Cmon)
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I don't track ASEAN closely, but if you think China markets had a rough period, check out this chart I just saw in a fund investor letter. ASEAN down 28% over the last decade. Rough.
Maybe there's some FX impact here given they use MSCI, vs Shanghai and Sensex that are LC.
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Ok time to look at PDD again yaaawnn
I've been Very Negative in the past: general mistrust of management plus visceral dislike of the product tactics with suppliers and buyers.
The second one is irrelevant for investing (unless regulatory risk). First one is now consensus. So:
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Ok went through $BABA earnings call.
The most interesting part was the proactive mention, several times, of market share stabilized. All the recent quarters they eluded the question.
Now, I don't see PDD psychos settling the war here and drawing a border. So what's their move?
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Not all is gloom for China 1H24. Pop Mart toy / blind box business doing well: revenue up 50%, run rate now >usd1bn not small.
And this is real revenue, people buying toys, vs Miniso opening franchisees and stuffing channel.
40% sold via Tmall and Douyin. 40% vending machines.
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@ruima
I disagree. Learning a language even if not proficient helps understand culture, patterns, how they joke, and greatly enhances empathy.
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China valuation landscape march24
40x PE
Hot a-share consumer: Proya, Eastroc
Hot semis: Naura
30x PE
Best in class a-share: Moutai
20x PE
Best in class h-share: Tencent
Bluechip h-share consumer: YUMC, Anta, CRB, TME, Xiaomi
Growth ecomm: Meituan, PDD
10x PE
BIDU, BABA, JD
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@MikeFritzell
Every down cycle a retail analyst comes up with a "Luxury is not cyclical" report arguing there are always rich people.
Then when sales go down "they are rich but not spending".
Nah. It is not about rich people, it is about middle class wanting to look like rich people.
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Nongfu down 10% today.
The competition for who is the richest man of China is heating up 💪
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@corry_wang
-research analyst: gives 5 prompts to an LLM and asks for a 20 page report
-recipient: feeds the 20 page report to the same LLM and asks for a 5 bullet summary
-the LLM: fml
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MS says your China shares are going down and that you should be buying Japan and India instead.
Hangseng PE 8x, Japan Topic 15x, India 22x
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@agnostoxxx
For clarity, it is not a ban solely on iphone but foreign phones, and it is not a ban from buying them or using them, the ban is not allowing bringing them inside the government office.
Not good news for Apple but not catastrophic. Caveat: so far.
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JD vs Costco
2019 NI: usd1.0bn vs usd3.7bn
LTM NI: usd5.5bn vs usd6.5bn
LTM FCF: usd8.5bn vs usd8bn
Market cap: usd40bn vs usd400bn
Lol
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Baidu earnings call was a tough one. What an incredible challenge these guys have ahead.
Filter the noise of AI examples factoids and numbers, basically BIDU is now a company with 3 products (AI search, AI cloud, Apollo) each with unclear monetization model.
Ev/ebit 0.2x
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Kweichow Moutai, aka China's , is having a very rough month, and is no longer the largest company in the Shanghai stock exchange.
It all started with a coffee collab..
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Walmart unloading their 5% stake $JD to go solo in China.
Both JD and WMT are growing supermarket revenue by double digit in China per latest results. Sam's Club is all the rage (like Costco), they have 50 now.
WMT 5% stake is 15 days trading volume. MS offering at 10% disc.
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China internet 2021-23 revenue CAGR
PDD 62%
Meituan 24%
Kuaishou 18%
---
JD 7%
BABA 5%
BIDU 4%
Tencent 4%
Weibo -12%
And so, LTM PEs
First group 20-40x
Second group 6-20x
Talk buybacks and PE ex cash and NIM improvement all you want, but the market wants top line growth.
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Meitu 1h24 profit up 80%. This is now a +usd500m revenue 12% margin photo editing family of apps, from casual to professional creators, importantly with a growing chunk of it subscription based.
Love the "we told you" in the release.
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@orrdavid
Mathematically: the index "bought" a lot of 40x PE stocks with the proceeds of "selling" (lower weighting) 5x PE banks, telcos, uti, energy. That reduced index earnings. New stocks are still growing earnings, but decreased in price. Xiaomi, meituan, Baba, jd, bidu, netease, byd..
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Chinese companies have missed earnings consensus expectations for 11 straight quarters.
Research analysts say this is a sign of how bad the economy is. I say this is a sign of how bad research analysts are.
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Here is the massive deceleration of revenue growth rates for top Chinese companies 2017-21 vs 2021-23. And that explains the PEs.
Market does not care about margin improvement or buybacks, so nor should you. Lets just buy the ones that could reaccelerate (or wait for it).
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Giant Biogene (China cosmetics) revenue up 60% in 1H24.
Looking at mentions in the release you can get a feel for what matters today if you want to sell a lot of stuff:
Tmall 10
Douyin 5
JD 3
Xiaohongshu 3
Kuaishou 0
PDD 0
Weixin / Tencent video 0
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Another place with strong evidence of 2Q24 deceleration is Peninsula hotels: look at HK decrease in occupancy YoY QoQ (ties with the luxury trends we have observed) and room rates.
Thing is, this tells you about yesterday and not about tomorrow. With respect to Mainland China..
WHARF REIC is a good gauge for retail in Hong Kong. They run two landmark malls in prime location Harbour City + Times Square.
Spun off 2017 usd20bn valuation, today 8bn.
1H24 results say recovery stalled in 2Q24.
Office portfolio 88% occupancy. Rough.
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Joe Tsai testing his $BABA investment thesis.
#1
market share + mindshare
Must be place for brands
Largest advertising revenue recipient in China
Profits up 1.5x from precovid
9x PE 11% FCF yield
7% return via repurchase+divi
50% cash/cap
The market:
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China financials doing ok YTD.
Banks value trap for 10 years, prob continues.
Consumer lending had a very rough 2019-23 implementing new rules (loan pricing cap at 24% etc). Now benefiting from low funding cost.
QFIN and FINV both 20% ROE at 12% yield inc buybacks.
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Anyway, net net:
They are surviving the tough macro, but for BABA to re-rate from 10x PE to 20x we need to see CMR and Cloud back to growing revenue double digit. Management knows that, and Joe too.
Breakeven of the smaller businesses or buybacks is appreciated, but not enough.
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China wealth effect charts: RE busts take time to bottom.
Doesn't mean you can't make money in the meantime. US: 2007 stock index levels took 5 years to recover, msft too. But by then, amzn and aapl were already up 3.5x.
2026 will be 5 years from China peak. Who will be up 3.5x
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China ad revenue. It tells you where consumer eyes are, where seller money is going.
Ads are a must in this ultra competitive market. Unfort for investors, as with many industries in China, ads also suffer from fragmentation (US is 95% concentrated in 3 players). Still...
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Kingsoft just reported. The business is:
-a 52% stake in KSO worth usd6bn at current market cap
-a game business making usd200m ebit runrate, say at 10x worth usd2bn
-a 40% stake in KC worth usd250m
-usd2.5bn cash at holdco
Total usd10.7bn
Yours for usd3.8bn at current market cap
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We have 1H24 numbers.
Deceleration 17-21 to 21-23 killed valuations. 1H24 Baba jd tencent not getting worse but not recovering either (NI growing big for tencent and jd but who cares).
Meituan keeps doing well. Xiaomi and Qifu improving.
Kingsoft and BYD slowing. Wuli mm..
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Moutai and Wuliangye are derating rapidly. Lots of talk about pricing, investment inventory etc
Moutai 10Y revenue cagr is 18% Wuli is 12%. People like this growth on usd20bn sales.
Thing is, best in class LVMH wine&spirits or Macallan 10Y cagr is 4%.. Can China stay different?
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The transcript of this panel between ceos of 4 key Chinese semis equipment makers is super interesting (AMEC is one). Whoever gets investing in this industry right will make lots of money. Diminishing role of lithography, 3D architecture, mobile memory..
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Tencent 1Q24 is out. Games flat, bad but expected. To compensate, the advertising engine is now turned fully on, up 26%.
Total gross profit up 23%: note how the rmb5.5bn of advertising revenue falls straight to gross profit.
So what's Tencent in 3 years, games or ads?
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Why China ecommerce platforms make all the money, exhibit Z:
-Blue Moon is a large-ish Chinese washing soap brand usd1bn revenue
-1H24 sales up usd100m profit down usd70m
-That additional 170m expense vs 1H23 is all ecommerce promotion and advertising for baba jd pdd douyin kuai
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Meituan 2Q24. Core biz 19% growth (deliveries 13%, commissions 21%, ads 20%). New biz accelerated to 29% mostly Select (groceries).
Net income up 96% 1H24 on reduced new biz loss.
70 million deliveries a day
usd3bn buyback vs 0.5bn sbc
25x PE / 16x core
2x P/S vs 5.5x for $DASH
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UBS had a call with two Caijing journalists that spent 3 weeks in Mexico interviewing Chinese manufacturers.
Costs are 40-50% higher than in China. If US tariffs rise by 20 or 30%, it may still be worth it to export from mainland than deal with Mexican cartels.
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One of the consequences of the high unemployment rate among scholars is people finding toxic masculinity in a videogame about a folk tale from the XVI century 😂🙄
And please tell me I'm not the only one who feels sad that Sun Wukong's image has changed from a symbol of resistance against authority to a symbol of cultural nationalism and toxic masculinity.
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One of the big differences between China and US internet cos is that the US ones tend to stay in their lane while China ones go after everything and competition is brutal (so lower margins).
For the core business, seems to me Meituan food/instaS is the one with less competition?
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This week we are going to find out if the China rally is real with FOMO buythedip from money that missed out, or if it just was part of a global risk-on momentum trade (us ATH, europe ATH, gold ATH, btc, china..)
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Sooo LTM PE
BABA 11.1x
PDD? .... 11.5x
Alibaba "AHAHA YOU WILL ALL eventually join me at 9x PE" at Anta Moutai Nongfu
Newton law of gravitation
Silver lining: baba just down 5% last month as the others crap 10-20%
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$JD results
Why are you people not buying airconssss?
Supermarket and marketplace doing not bad, considering.
Margins great, fcf too. But people want to see top line growth, rightly so.
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So 3 buckets of China valuations remain:
Low growth 5% low PE 10x: $BABA $JD $BIDU $QFIN
Mid growth +20% mid PE 20x: Meituan $PDD Kuaishou Moutai $TME Kingsoft
Low growth 5% mid PE 20x: Tencent, Xiaomi, $YUMC Anta
Easier to choose now than at 30x PE. Place your bets.
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Not sure what Apple's endgame is here. Surely they dont want to make people choose between iphone and wechat, they know the answer already.
So do they want to use this to go to the regulator, tag Tencent of monopoly, and ask for protection? Would be rich, imagine Zuck like wtf
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Is Tastien really that good for Yum China to lose 50% of value in 1 year?
After 1Q24 flat revenue everyone panicked. Now 15x PE, 7% P/FCF, 13% return to shareholders in 2024 inc buyback.
Luckin vs Starbucks I get, but this one not so sure.
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The 4 guys already above the 2023 China failed reopening rally:
Tencent Music +45%
Xiaomi +30%
PDD +20%
Netease +3%
Next to cross the line?
Maybe BYD, Kingsoft, Tencent hovering at -15%
HSTech index still -23%
Baidu, Anta -27%
Way down:
Meituan, Alibaba, Yum China -35%
JD -50%
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Buy everything
Ev-ve-rry-th-in-gg
(x8)
Is Tepper my exit liquidity?
What is David Tepper buying in China? "Everything," he says. "ETFs, I would do futures - everything. Everything."
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If we can get the Hang Seng index back to 20k and BABA🐷 back to 100....
then they will just be down 30% and 55% respectively from precovid levels lol
加油
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WHARF REIC is a good gauge for retail in Hong Kong. They run two landmark malls in prime location Harbour City + Times Square.
Spun off 2017 usd20bn valuation, today 8bn.
1H24 results say recovery stalled in 2Q24.
Office portfolio 88% occupancy. Rough.
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US food delivery vs China food delivery: Doordash vs Meituan
2023 # orders: 2.2bn vs 21.9bn
2023 revenue: usd9bn vs usd39bn
2021-23 cagr: 33% vs 24%
Market Cap: usd47bn vs usd97bn
P/S: 5.5x vs 2.5x
FCF yield*: 0.6% vs 3.3%
*Adj to include share comp
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2021 BYD valuation was crazy but the next 3 years proved right, the company has grown into it now at 20x.
Looking at the chart people seem to have a debate going about how the next 5 years look like.
I like BYD, theres a lot going on there beyond cars.
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Another reason why $BABA $BIDU are at 10x and 12x PE:
-Alibaba cloud revenue is growing at 3%, Baidu cloud at 9%
-AWS at 13%, Microsoft cloud 20%, Google Cloud 25%
So not only ads but also cloud is growing very slow in China. If they want rerating, they must improve in 2024.
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Anta had a solid 1H24 revenue +14% yoy and above the 2021-23 cagr of 12%. NI up 18% for all you China macro deflation drama kings. With the announced buyback c.6% yield.
Lining doing Lining things. Guiding down for the year and "focus on the LT". 5x ev/ebitda... (ex RE).
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$JD still at 4x PE ex cash
(and this multiple excludes cash held at subsidiaries like JD Logistics and Healthcare, which is around usd7bn of the total usd35bn)
I have no idea if they will win against $PDD and $BABA or stagnate, but the bet has substantial downside protection.
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Lots of bigbrain theories on PDD. Lets do a mickey mouse analysis taking ceo words at face value "fees down for good merchants" nothing else. Assume: 1/3 good merchants, cut PDD take by half, 90% flows through. PF NI 7bn. 20% GMV growth to take you back.
Go ahead, annihilate me.
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PDD margin is truly spectacular, even more considering that 2023 has been a year of investment in US/Europe, and of slow macro higher competition in China as BABA and JD woke up.
Margin is not totally comparable given 1P3P weighting etc, but still just look at Meituan..
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China HK/offshore indexes up 20-25% in 1 month. Onshore up just 1.5-2.5%
Consumption spending remains low onshore, including shares.
Direction this gap closes? who knows
For perspective, the 5 year gap is opposite: offshore -25% onshore +25%.
So catch-up or overheat narrative
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Baidu must step up shareholder returns. Their divi is zero. The usd670m of 2023 share repurchase is offset with usd800m employee share comp.
If you add divi+net buybacks (net of share comp):
Tencent 3.4%
JD 3.8%
BABA 4.8%
BIDU -0.4%
Cash+inv 90% of cap, Robin man..
@Baidu_Inc
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Of the 29 Chinese companies that were 10 baggers in the 2013-2023 period, only 6 had starting PE below 20x. Dont get too comfortable buying cheap.
For the 29, main defining factor of returns was growth: median cagr 30%.
For the 6 low PE: 5 of them rerated and 1 tripled margin.
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PDD has lost today one JD plus one Baidu in market cap, more or less.
@joetsai1999
baba 11x PE pdd 10.6x
Earnings calls:
Fy23 march zero mention of competition concerns
1q24 may one mention "increased competition may lead to inc expenses and slower growth"
2q24 aug five mentions
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JPM analyst the bravest in the BABA earnings call, paraphrasing: "so congratulations on slowing-the-pace of market-share+loss...."🫣
Then
"Soo, what did you do right this quarter?" 😂
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In what form is Alibaba "cash":
usd34bn cash and equivs (bank deposits or <3m term deposits)
36bn ST investments (<1Y deposits)
15bn treasury investments (deposits, bonds >1Y)
10bn listed equities (pic)
Thats usd95bn
plus:
13bn unlisted equities
28bn eq method inv (inc Ant stake)
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Yili is China Danone (allow me) sales usd17bn.
Dairy GMs are lower than RTD teas etc (Nongfu) as feeding cows costs more money than tap water. Still, they manage 20% ROIC (they dominate distributors, neg wc).
6% fcf yield 19x PE. At 5% growth, meh.
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HK residential prices down 25% from peak and now at 2016 levels while Seoul and Tokyo keep making new highs (I actually have no idea where the money is coming to pump Seoul prices, maybe cryptos..).
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Quick look at BABA, frankly the most exciting part is the primary listing conversion which will make it eligible for stock connect and onshore investors.
GMV up double digit but take rate down as the fight for share, so net 4% growth and flat profit. Meh. At least not down.. 🐷
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PDD the US listed Dublin based e-retailer 1Q24:
Revenue up 130%
NI up 250%
Sales and marketing up 44%
CFO quote "rather than focusing on short-term results, we prioritize long-term value creation"
LoL they are just trolling at this stage
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Ford CEO "What Huawei and Xiaomi have done inside the vehicle is far beyond what we can see with CarPlay and Google Automotive Services. That is the natural law now in terms of great software."
Paraph: Cost fitness and quality fitness to compete is being defined in China not US.
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Btw $BABA you could have helped the non-mathematically inclined (I am one) by adding a simple statement:
1-the CB converts into 43m shares, vs 77m shares repurchased this quarter, so stop crying
2-we like issuing shares at usd105 while repurchasing them at usd75
Baba June share repurchase update is out, 7% NOSH reduction in a year net of employee share comp is a respectable number, matching Apple in 2014 or 2018.
This matters very little for the share price. Whoever owns baba today is betting on usd150 price not on 7.5% eps accretion.
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The 4 Chinese ERP software names reported.
Inspur continues to win, growing 20% top line and 120% bottom line. Yours for 0.7x P/S 12x LTM PE
Chanjet also up 20%, breakeven, & more cash than market cap.
Kingdee and Yonyou grow 12%, continue to lose money, yet 3.6x and 2.8x P/S💩
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I dont know why people are so bearish on $HSI looks fine to me
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On another consumption downgrade news, no wonder Xiaomi aircon sales are up like 30% YTD vs Gree and Haier.
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Da pump.
Nice to see the China boomers riding high but not sure what to make of sh1tcos like Miniso up 8%, and earlier in HK all the loss making software stonks up 15%. People/bots escaping shorts?
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Burry 25% invested in China. What a chad. Also the old school ones, defenders not challengers. And 7% gold for good measure.
I have no view on the guy though beyond the movie, probably one time wonder, that is fine with me, like Rick Astley, respect.
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Imagine they change name to Babacoin and Dongecoin and it works $BABA $JD
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Yihai (Haidilao hotpot condiments) is a good snapshot of china consumer environment:
-volumes up 30% (people are eating out, home gatherings)
-prices down 12% (because is cheap)
-gross margin flat (supplier prices also down)
-op profit down (advertising costs up 50%)
Long ads.
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Only 9 companies in the Hang Seng Tech are positive YTD:
Top 3 are Tongcheng, Trip, Meituan, for travel and food, up 25-50%
Xiaomi and Haier Smarthone in consumer electronics
Netease, Tencent, Bilibili, Kingsoft for entertainment
All consumer discretionary, mostly services.
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Few China adj. LTM PEs after 2Q24
Meituan 25x core 16x
Xiaomi 23x core 16x
Nongfu 23x
Moutai 22x
Tencent 20x
TME 20x
Trip 17x
Kuaishou 11x
BABA 10x
PDD 10x
Baidu 9x
JD 8x
Qifu 6x
Weibo 6x
VIP 6x
I like LTM PE. 20x is 5% growth forever discounted at 10%. 10x is 0 growth 10% disc.
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