Janka Oertel
@oertel_janka
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Director l Asia programme l ECFR @ecfr @ECFRAsia RT ≠ endorsement; views personal
Berlin
Joined December 2014
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The statements following the EU-China summit made clear that it was a frosty meeting.There was little agreement between the two sides and the conversation was far from being “business as usual”. A frank exchange of opposing views. Systemic rivalry is a new reality. 1/6
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Aufregender Tag…erste Kopien sind da! Ab Donnerstag im Handel:
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The future of EU-China relations will be determined to a significant degree by China’s approach to the war in Ukraine. If China openly undermines the sanctions regime that has been imposed there will be serious consequences. This could not be clearer now. 6/6
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Danke an alle die mit viel Engagement unterstützt haben. Es hat nicht geklappt mit einem Platz auf der Grünen Europaliste, aber gibt so viel zu tun in Sachen EU-China Politik & das mache ich weiter-mit Leidenschaft! Ich wünsche allen 💚einen tollen Wahlkampf & großen Erfolg 2024!
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Eine kurze Notiz in eigener Sache: Nach reiflicher Überlegung und vielen Gesprächen habe ich mich entschieden, mich um einen Platz auf der Grünen Europaliste 2024 zu bewerben. 1/4
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Re-reading the last German coalition treaty the change in the language on China is even more striking. New tone coming from Berlin. Much needed reality adjustment. Good work done by a strong team of negotiators. Exciting times ahead in Germany‘s foreign policy future…
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In clear contrast to Chinese insistence on Russia’s “legitimate security interest”, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored the “unjustified aggression by Russia” and made clear that China’s reputation in Europe is on the line. 5/6
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The fact that Xi Jinping’s comments on the summit were published in Chinese state media already half-way through the summit underscores that there was a limited willingness to engage in an actual conversation. 3/6
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In a very lightly veiled threat, EU leaders stated that European companies are watching very closely how all countries position themselves with regard to the war in Ukraine and that a major exodus of Western companies from Russia should serve as a warning also to China. 4/6
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@ABaerbock
presents the German China Strategy
@merics_eu
- and that is already a big message in and of itself. Good to finally have a text. Good that it is really solid. And really good to move the debate forward with a clear-eyed description of the reality.
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Today was my 1st day as
@ecfr
Asia programme Director. I look forward to building the team & am thrilled to work with the amazing
@tara_varma
@jana_puglierin
@agg1609
@akuchenbecker29
@EllieGeranmayeh
@KadriLiik
@GresselGustav
@JyShapiro
and many more of Europe‘s finest thinkers.
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The EU leadership has made its positions and expectations with regard to China’s approach to the war in the Ukraine and China’s discriminatory practices vis-à-vis Lithuania very clear, but they also seem to not have received any significant response or assurances from Beijing.2/6
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We recorded a podcast for you on the new German coalition treaty with
@markhleonard
and
@jana_puglierin
@ecfr
you can listen to it tomorrow on - and we even crawled under a bunk bed to improve the sound quality, so definitely check it out!
#Ampel
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Vor knapp 10 Wochen ist
#EndederChinaIllusion
erschienen - heute war die 3. Auflage in der Post. Danke an alle, die gelesen und unterstützt haben. Ich freu mich sehr!
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Danke so sehr für Eure Unterstützung!
Morgen bewirbt sich die herausragende ECFR-Kollegin
@oertel_janka
um einen Platz auf der Liste der Grünen für die Europawahl 2024.
Ich habe diesen nicht-parteipolitischen Aufruf an die Delegierten des Parteitags gemeinsam mit einigen Kolleginnen sehr gern unterzeichnet.
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German China strategy is finally out. It is not hugely surprising or overly bold, but it is very solid - and it has potential for more. Below a little thread with first takes - more to come over the next few days...👇1/8
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The EU will publish its Indo-Pacific Strategy tomorrow - we have some
@ECFRAsia
background for you by my fantastic colleagues
@ManishaReuter
and
@fgrare
European Views of the Indo-Pacific. Check it out!
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Von der Leyen: "Global markets are flooded with cheaper Chinese electric cars & their price is kept artificially low by huge state subsidies. This is distorting our market. And as we do not accept this from the inside, we do not accept this from the outside." Well then..let's go!
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Eine erste sneak preview des Buchs…Erscheinungsdatum von “Ende der China-Illusion”: 31.8.
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@Sicherheitspod
Danke auch an
@thomas_wiegold
für das umgehend und so lieb gelieferte Dankeschön - ich habe dem guten Stück gleich eine asiatische Note verliehen mit speziellem Gruß and
@CarloMasala1
😉
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Testifying today on EU-China relations in great company of
@noahbarkin
and
@ajwsmall
at US Senate Foreign Relations Committee featuring also new
@ecfr
polling data on China in report by
@jana_puglierin
and
@PawelZerka
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Before the “von der Leyen was humiliated” logic takes hold maybe just a reminder that she knew what she was getting into.She knew the schedule and protocol. It wasn’t a surprise trick that Beijing pulled.Macron invited her for good reasons, she decided to go to convey her message
Macron invited von der Leyen to Beijing in hopes of showcasing EU unity.
The optics painted a very different story, with the EU chief sidelined by officials and vilified on social media.
W/
@cleacaulcutt
@suzannelynch1
@JamilAnderlini
on
@POLITICOEurope
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Very happy to announce with this commentary also that
@jamescrabtree
has joined the mighty little
@ECFRAsia
team as distinguished visiting fellow, bringing Indo-Pacific insights from the region to Europe! Welcome, James!!!
As ties between Europe and China continue to cool, European leaders should refocus their energies on strengthening relations elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific, writes
@jamescrabtree
.
@ECFRAsia
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Gerne würde ich meinen Teil dazu beitragen, diese Herausforderungen direkt anzupacken und in konkretes politisches Handeln umzumünzen und mich dafür mit ganzer Energie einsetzen. 4/4
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About to get started with the very first European Caucus on China!
@ECFRAsia
@merics_eu
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On 10 Dec 2018 Michael Kovrig was arrested in Beijing. He has now been detained for 9
months. We need to keep up the pressure to call for his immediate release. Arbitrary detentions cannot become acceptable behavior.
China has been arbitrarily detaining our colleague
#MichaelKovrig
for 274 days.
Michael is a Canadian national. He has yet to see a lawyer or his family.
Join our call to
#FreeMichaelKovrig
➔
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German Foreign Minister underscoring that Germany will be a reliable partner for all of its allies. Says it would be naive to think that Putin wants to negotiate.
@ABaerbock
is a minister speaking with a degree of clarity that is often lacking.
@KoerberIP
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13
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A big, fat, warm and happy welcome to
@v_abigael
from all of us at
@ECFRAsia
-
@merics_eu
can count itself so lucky to have you and Berlin’s research scene has just been bumped up another notch! We are sorry
@eu_eeas
- but the think tank world really needed her back!
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Die Diskussion über China, über das Agieren autoritärer Staaten und die Herausforderungen, vor die uns das in Europa stellt, ist l��ngst kein außenpolitisches Nischenthema mehr. Es ist eine Diskussion über zentrale Zukunftsfragen. 2/4
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Very grateful today for amazing wonder woman colleagues
@ECFRParis
! Thank you
@tara_varma
for coming to snowy Berlin. May this stupid pandemic finally get out of the way so have more space to move the European agenda on
#Asia
#China
#IndoPacific
@ECFRAsia
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Es geht um unsere Demokratie, unsere Wirtschaft, unsere Sicherheit und den Erfolg des globalen Klimaschutzes.
Die Lage ist ernst und dringlich: Die kommenden fünf Jahre werden entscheidend für die Frage sein, ob und wie sich Europa langfristig aufstellen kann und muss. 3/4
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Macron and von der Leyen traveling to 🇨🇳 without a business delegation could have sent a surprising, strong & unmistakable message to Beijing: "There is currently no higher priority for Europe than the 🇷🇺invasion of Ukraine. No business as usual. Business has to wait." 9/10
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Really worth taking note - German Social Democrats' new Position Paper on China: "In the end it is systemic rivalry that defines the degree to which we can cooperate and influences the way we compete economically."
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I promise I will be back to being all professional again tomorrow, but today I will be just be very unprofessionally happy.
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Little thread on question of hierarchy of priorities regarding the Macron/von der Leyen visit to 🇨🇳: 1/10
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The headline I would have chosen: "Why the German 5G debate is not over"
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I know there would be more professional things to say, but very honestly it is simply devastating to read this and think about the two Michaels and the pain this whole process inflicts on them, their families and friends.
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For everyone who is still trying to make sense of what is going on in terms of
#5G
in Germany and what yesterday's decision of the CDU/CSU was all about just very briefly. 1/5
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NDR - DAS! Heute 18:45 live gibt es ein weiteres Gespräch über “Das Ende der China-Illusion” eine tolle Gelegenheit und ein schöner Grund für einen Abstecher nach Hamburg. Einfach immer gut für die norddeutsche Seele…
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Visible signs already of
@EU_Commission
President von der Leyen’s arrival in Delhi on Monday
@orfonline
@raisinadialogue
: Not an easy trip, but a really important one - getting the EU’s Info-Pacific agenda right starts with showing up….
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Really important read by
@LukePatey
on the future of the European wind industry and the China factor.
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Report from 15 December but still worth a read! The film is very very good "A new film captures North Korea's 'bold and audacious' millennials"
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“It would be in its own self-interest, then, for Beijing to act to assuage foreign investors’ concerns...” Maybe, just maybe, there is a different definition of what constitutes self-interest…Current policies are not an accident.
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If HIGHEST priority is to signal that continued economic, diplomatic and potential future lethal military support from 🇨🇳to 🇷🇺 is unacceptable and will come at a substantial economic and diplomatic cost to 🇨🇳, bringing a big business delegation does not send that message. 6/10
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That does not seem to be the case. Fair enough, as long as European leaders are clear about that and do not try to pretend that they have tried everything that they could to change Beijing’s course. They have not even begun. 10/10
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One absolute key finding of latest
@ecfr
polling data in report by
@jana_puglierin
and
@PawelZerka
: 41% of European respondents in favour of imposing sanctions even at the risk of “serious harm to Western economies” - striking!
4/ A significant red line for Europeans is Chinese arms deliveries to Russia. 41% across surveyed member states consider this a reason to impose sanctions on China, even at the cost of potential harm to Western economies.
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Es war eine aufregende Woche: Auf dem SZ-Wirtschaftsgipfel durfte ich am Mittwoch mit Satelliten-Unternehmer Matthias Spott und Jörg Wutke von BASF über Entkopplung von
#China
sprechen 1/3
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At Doshisha University with German President Steinmeier to discuss 25 years of Kyoto Protocol and the future of climate action - last day of discussions here in Japan with important signals of cooperation and a clear message to the region.
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500 days. 500...
#FreeMichaelKovrig
Our colleague Michael has been arbitrarily detained by China for 500 days.
Each passing day is a stain on China’s reputation, an injustice to Michael and an act of cruelty to his family and loved ones.
#FreeMichaelKovrig
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A very grateful and happy morning in Vienna. Thank you to
@IWM_Vienna
for hosting me as a
@EuropesFutures
fellow and the enormous hospitality. Going home inspired and full of new ideas, but not before indulging a little bit longer in Vienna‘s culinary delights.
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Thanks to
@ecfr
London team
@alba_lamberti
@swaninlondon
@agouttebroze
and
@ECFRMadrid
colleagues
@jitorreblanca
and
@Carla_Hobbs
for amazing 24 hours in London and 36 hours in Madrid. Rich pan-European discussions on China, Europe, the US and 5G - to be continued!
@ECFRAsia
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Seems unhelpful to add a half-finished document to the mixed messages sent. From D.C. to Seoul,Stockholm to Sofia the question raised to me over the past months was: Where does 🇩🇪 actually stand on China policy? We better have a pretty good and consistent answer soon. It matters.
Confidential
@AuswaertigesAmt
draft of 🇩🇪China strategy that was sent to chancellory & other ministries for review and comments was leaked to
@derspiegel
that runs an article on it with select quotes.
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German FM Maas at
#BerlinForum
: „China has to grant access to Xinjiang for independent assessment of the human rights situation on the ground.“ Is Germany willing to draw consequences from what the outcome of this will be?
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Really important aspect: broad national consensus in principle on German China strategy - also from CDU, despite unhappiness about publication during parliamentary summer break and government consultations.
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Remains still striking in light of everything else: Chinese and Russian nuclear bombers fly over Sea of Japan as Biden visits Tokyo via
@FT
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Ending a day of inspiring discussions
@IWM_Vienna
with my fantastic Fellow
@EuropesFutures
fellows
@OliviaLazard
@amandamcoakley
on greening civic Europe. Thank you
@IVejvoda
for bringing us together!
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Heute 21 Uhr im Gespräch mit Ulrich Timm auf Tagesschau24 zum „Ende der China-Illusion“ 28 min Frage Antwort zu Wirtschaft, Taiwan und mehr…
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The German 5G saga continues. The massive delay in getting the long-awaited legislation to parliament leaves room for operators to create facts on the ground. But one thing is for sure: the debate is far from over.
0
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Britain to bar Huawei from its 5G wireless networks, part of a growing shift away from the Chinese tech giant
@nakashimae
0
10
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Partner, Wettbewerber, systemischer Rivale – wie umgehen mit China? Inforadio
@rbb24
zum “Ende der China Illusion” im Gespräch mit Sabina Matthay …ein bisschen länger aber vielleicht etwas fürs Wochenende.
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And more from
@ECFRAsia
today to start the week off well informed: With the EU-China Summit coming up in a few days this is a good moment to read (and follow if you don't already...) my brilliant colleague
@a_bachulska
👇
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@ElliPohlkamp
kicking off the
#JapanEuropeForum
@ECFRAsia
- we look forward to a day filled with great discussions. Thank you to all our guests for making the journey to Berlin and the fantastic ECFR Asia Team for making everything happen!
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Olaf Scholz won’t dump China. Will Europe ever learn? – POLITICO
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@adam_tooze
@ecfr
… or it is time for policymakers to better explain the implications of such a scenario for European prosperity and security and provide a convincing argument for what Europe’s response should look like also with regard to expectations of regional states regarding Europe’s role.
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Next month it will be 2 years. 2 years.
Our colleague Michael has been arbitrarily detained by China for 700 days.
Each passing day is a stain on China’s reputation, an injustice to Michael and an act of cruelty to his family and loved ones.
#FreeMichaelKovrig
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At
@raisinadialogue
Minister
@anuahsa
of the Maldives is making a clear pledge for speeding up climate action. Green transition front and center here in Delhi - key takeaway for all European participants: despite everything that is happening, cannot slow down on climate action.
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Wondering where EU member states stand on FDI screening?
@ManishaReuter
has produced an excellent overview that we will continue to update - check it out!
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18
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@ECFRAsia
is proud to announce that the fantastic
@a_bachulska
will join us in January as a new
@ecfr
Policy Fellow working on all things
#China
! She will be based in
@ECFRWarsaw
. We are delighted about this massive reinforcement of our mighty little team!
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Very excited to welcome
@TGehrke_
@ecfr
- much needed reinforcement of our geoeconomics work! Stay tuned on new activities and follow him if you do not already do so anyway!
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Super important topic of how to engage with China in multilateral organisations and great to engage with students and citizens of Munich on the sidelines of
#MSC20
- explaining foreign policy beyond the conference room probably one of the key tasks of all. Thanks to
@KASonline
!
Chinas Engagement in internat. Organisationen ist Thema unseres Side-Events zur
#MSC2020
. Chinas polit. & wirtschaftl. Aufstieg ist ein bedeutender Megatrend im 21. Jh. Für 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 gilt es, mit
#China
ein gemeinsames Verständnis von
#Multilateralismus
zu entwickeln.
@oertel_janka
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On the contrary, the 🇨🇳 government is correct in assuming that its current support to 🇷🇺 does not generally impair improved economic relations w/ Europe despite the fact that it creates an enabling environment for the war. 7/10
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My very smart colleagues
@ecfr
@ECFRBerlin
@ECFRPower
have come up with a great visualisation of European solidarity stay tuned for comparative info also on China which will follow soon!
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So honoured to be welcomed in beautiful Vienna by the fantastic
@IWM_Vienna
@EuropesFutures
. Thank you to
@IVejvoda
for the great opportunity.
On EU's relations with China, the move towards European Green Deal & implications these will have:
Join
#EuropesFutures
fellows
@oertel_janka
,
@OliviaLazard
and
@IWM_Vienna
's
@IVejvoda
in a discussion
⏰Today at 4pm
[30-sec] registrations welcome:
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This was a really great discussion - and incredibly timely! Russia-China relations are linked much more closely to current security developments in Europe than some may think…
@ECFRAsia
thanks to the brillant gang of speakers
@AlexGabuev
@KadriLiik
@Yuichi_Hosoya
and
@ajwsmall
Don't worry if you missed our event,
#China
-
#Russia
– Strategic alignment or alliance in the making? You can watch it now:
@ajwsmall
@AlexGabuev
@Yuichi_Hosoya
@KadriLiik
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Bad cop in Brussels: How the European Commission is driving the China narrative – again – European Council on Foreign Relations with
@ajwsmall
0
4
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In light of the upcoming GER-CHN government consultations
@jana_puglierin
and I took a more detailed look at our latest „Europe in the world“ tracker poll kindly supported by
@MercatorDE
- A little thread on current GER-CHN relations in public opinion data
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8
22
Check out our ideas on how to navigate the new reality of EU-China relations on climate change. We argue that Europe should make use of the current momentum in the debate with new pragmatism, clear red lines, and by taking the geopolitical and geo-economic competition seriously.
New policy brief! How can the EU & China compete and cooperate for a green future?
@oertel_janka
@jennytollmann
@byfordt
#climateaction
@e3g
#greentransformation
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All eyes are on Berlin to get this done and get it done quickly. As reported, Merkel is meeting the CEOs of NOKIA and Ericsson tomorrow, interestingly the position paper also calls for the “protection of European companies against hostile takeover from foreign countries.” 5/5
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13
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Vielen Dank an Tim Guldimann für das Gespräch und die gute Diskussion mit
@ischinger
zur deutschen Chinastrategie und zum “Ende der China-Illusion”
@piperverlag
1
3
22
There is no immediate cost to 🇨🇳 to its actions so far. There may even be some benefits that can be extracted. 8/10
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1
22
Very happy to share
@ManishaReuter
‘s first commentary on EU-India relations - more to come!!
@ECFRAsia
Very excited to share my first commentary on India-EU relations. If Europe wants to become a serious player in the
#IndoPacific
it needs to recalibrate it’s relationship with India
@ecfr
@ECFRAsia
👇🏼
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5
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“If we get the China challenge right, the transatlantic agenda can be injected with new life. If we get it wrong, the transatlantic relationship is under threat.”
@ajwsmall
@gmfus
#BrusselsForum
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12
20
Worth reading (and google translating....) Jürgen Matthes from IW on current China exposure of the German economy...in his words: "full speed ahead in the wrong direction"
1
4
22
Star panel on
#DPRK
nuclear crisis at
#berlinfpf
today: Fu Ying, Igor Morgulov, Moon Chung-in, Anne Gearan, Roderich Kiesewetter
0
4
20
One of the key notions is that the economic engagement with China shall neither contribute to human rights violations or help advance Chinese military capabilities. Interpreted widely this has vast implications for the future of trade with China. And it is agile. 4/8
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Link to the report and data can be found here:
0
2
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China’s Coronavirus Diplomacy Has Finally Pushed Europe Too Far - Bloomberg
0
9
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6 Eurofighter, 4 A400M, 3 A330. GER has made a commitment to "show up" in the Indo-Pacific. Partners and allies appreciate support. GER interests in the region demand that it pays much greater attention to current developments.
#IndoPacific
@AusAmb_DE
Today 🇩🇪 air force takes off for 1st visit to
#IndoPacific
. Participation in
#PitchBlack
,
#Kakadu
exercises in 🇦🇺 &visits to 🇸🇬 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 will intensify security engagement. With its Indo-Pacific policy 🇩🇪 contributes to rules-based intl order.
#RapidPacific2022
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Welcome to the team -
@ElliPohlkamp
is boosting our Japan work as our new visiting fellow!
@ManishaReuter
and I are very excited!
@ECFRAsia
Very excited and grateful to join the
@ecfrAsia
team! I am very much looking forward to working with
@oertel_janka
and
@ManishaReuter
on Japanese issues!
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If Kreuzberg is in any way representative this will be an amazing voter turn out…30
Minutes in line to cast my vote - really great to see so many people!
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Danke Dir, Thorsten!
Das außenpolitische Buch des Jahres ist ab heute erhältlich.
@oertel_janka
räumt brillant wie robust mit den Illusionen über den chinesischen Parteistaat auf.
Gehört in die Hände jeder außenpolitisch Interessierten.
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Thank you
@ConstantinoX
for hosting us for this great event! Dear European friends: read
@ananthkrishnan
‘s great report
We conclude a fascinating discussion on the evolving India-China economic relations and how Europe is addressing similar challenges with
@ShivshankaMenon
,
@ananthkrishnan
, Lu Yang,
@oertel_janka
&
@ConstantinoX
. We thank the speakers and all of you for joining us.
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