Sammy Gravano
@no__bs__
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Deputy CIO, La Cosa Nostra Investment Management. President, Gravano Waste Management.
Joined April 2024
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Remember that the majority of banks will over-time become:
Average. At. Best.
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to all those saying Jamie would never take the Treasury Sec position, just remember it would allow him to sell $1B of $JPM without capital gains tax
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@zachary_gast
I thought if it is a forced divestiture to meet ethics rules there is no cap gains
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My Own Thoughts on Shorts in Bank Investing
The man, the myth, the legend (
@Aureliusltd28
) gave us another masterpiece today. if you haven't already read it, do that now with the link in his bio.
Before sharing some thoughts on how I go about shorting, first I'd like to thank
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Starting a new blog called: Bullshit Bank Buybacks
we will start with everyone’s punching favorite punching bag, $HMST!!
For those who don’t know, HomeStreet has a deal in place to sell for 49% of TBV because they have no earnings and are lacking capital.
As of 3/31/24,
I strongly agree with
@gatorcapital
here about buybacks... especially in the case of someone like $TFC
Broadly speaking, the only time I am going to say a company should buyback stock 100% of the time over other options is when they have excess capital and are at real discounts
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If you’re not drinking PBR and buying banks in the hot tub, why not?
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There are 122 banks (give or take a few not screening) trading at or below TBV with a Total Cost of Deposits of 2% or lower.
Which do you own or would own? (I own 6)
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Every morning on my way to work I talk to the homeless people about their lives and if there is any advice they would give to their former selves
Here is a thread on the most common responses on how to avoid becoming unhoused🧵-
1. Don’t invest in Banks
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Playing The Credit Union Cash-Arb Game:
As many of you saw, $AFBI agreed to be acquired by a CU yesterday for an estimated $22.50 per share. However, the stock never sniffed the deal price right after the open which peaked my interest. Then
@Capt_GN
pointed out the spread on
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$KRE topped as this vote hit, rightfully so. This is not a good development for bank stocks.
A Kamala victory would ensure [at current valuations] that I become bearish the group
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$FFWM news is actually constructive to me, as was $NYCB recap. Private capital stepping up should tell you a lot.
Will the banks get smoked tomorrow? probably
Are there tons of shit banks? certainly
Are there great shorts in the group? oh yes
Be patient, don’t be
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whenever I’m in a shit mood, I remind myself that there were people who bought shares in the $PARA offering at $85 in 2021
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How do we feel about this bankX?
I heard from a friend today who said he’s heard through the grapevine there are some banks who know they “should” probably cut their dividends but are afraid of the death spiral the market bestowed upon NYCB or those in March 2023.
It certainly
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NIM = “the amount they make in interest on their loans”
$SOFI's biggest fintech competitor in the personal loan space is $LC (LendingClub). Since SoFi has received their banking license, their net interest margin (the amount they make in interest on their loans) has expanded from 4.38% to 5.91%. That is a 1.53% expansion in NIM during
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That face when you know TBV going to be $20+ in 12 months and the stock is sub $15 right now
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$KRE up 4% today means wearing exclusively linen to this cocktail party tonight and getting so drunk that I’ll be too hungover to even look at big bank earnings tomorrow. Jamie’s sour-puss attitude can’t derail this freight train. Gonna be a hell of a weekend fellas. Stay frosty,
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If the first thing someone mentions is revenue growth when discussing a financial, I immediately stop listening
🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩
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the higher the banks go before the election, the less bullish I am with a Trump win. Earnings multiples are pretty rich in my opinion. Also, there is no chance we get the 250bps of cuts in estimates so those need to come down too.
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Can someone for the love of god tell me what kind of high-income borrowers need debt consolidation loans?
$SoFi lends to very high quality borrowers, which should keep them from large losses even in times of financial trouble. Weighted average FICO score on their unsecured personal loans has mostly hovered between 745-750 since they came public. These are high-earning borrowers. Per
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keep running your mouth, you country bumpkin
Italians brought a unprecedented levels of corruption to Northeastern cities which is still being felt 100 years later.
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people seem to forget the 10y was 5% 11 months ago banks were just fine… oh and now bank balance sheets are in a better spot
Welp… There goes the long end…
If you’re gonna panic, make sure you panic first.
Think we lose the whole banking sector due to this 50bps fckup. You thought $SIVB was bad?? That was meant to be a wakeup call…
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While Noto's Cabana Boy is correct this time (I think?), I would pay so much money to see him and Porter go head to head on Financial Sector analysis
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my first thought on $BNS.CN / $KEY news is that I much prefer this for KEY than all the banks who sold their insurance businesses
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fuck man, Johnny Hockey. what a guy. had the pleasure of meeting him a few times with buddies he played with. 10/10 dude. we lost a good one
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Here’s the problem I see with the $KRE trade
We know earnings are inflecting and rate cuts will help credit, but we have pulled ahead too much of the thesis all at once.
4-6 weeks ago, I said $KRE $60 by January… we are basically there already. I made a lot of money but now
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When you are a shareholder of a bank that gets taken out, what should you do? Sell on announcement or hold?
Here is a recent look-back:
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@Aureliusltd28
Near-term: (surprise) rate cuts and ability to lower deposit costs proven accurate
Medium-term: Trump wins, new regulators, acquirer multiples move higher in anticipation of M&A
Longer-term: better loan growth, credit fears never materialize, normal curve (hopefully!)
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FUCK FUCK FUCK
Sold $FBMS last week
FUCK FUCK FUCK
Renasant Corporation $RNST to Acquire The First Bancshares, $FBMS | Business Wire
Brother Lehman strikes again! .
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maybe I am just sick in the head (likely) but I fucking love days like today... sell it all you fucking clowns
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All the porno hooker bots liking posts is cool and all, because it gives me insight to how
@blondesnmoney
feels in real life, but it is pretty sad for the state of this great platform
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$DCOM $NYCB $CNOB $PGC
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@jmconlin123
I don't buy any bank just bc I think they sell. Each bank has reasons I would own it independently & 90% of them are banks that I think earn their independence. Some investors buy shitty banks & hope they sell, I am hoping better banks will sell & if not I will just own them.
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BankTwit is so much better than RETwit wow. What a bunch of squares on RETwit
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$TBBK
Earnings today.
Chair of audit committee announced retirement yesterday.
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I pride myself on being extremely methodical and disciplined, even if it costs me points to the upside. I let those principles become a little lax of late and paid the price.
Took a pretty big and avoidable loss today. I completely handcuffed myself and that just can’t happen.
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Slept like ass again, starting to think my body isn’t used to the banks ripping and doesn’t know what to do 🤣
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this is Picasso level greatness
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My first thoughts on the FDIC brokered funds thing today is “wtf!” Vice Chair Hill’s comment is spot on in my mind
“The deposit landscape has become too complex to continually decide which arrangements are brokered and which are not in a fair and risk-sensitive way,” Hill said
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$PNC DEMCHAK: WE AIM TO BUILD UBIQUITOUS COAST-TO-COAST BANK - BBG
If I was Bill, these are the two banks I would add to my "Coast-to-Coast" footprint first.
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On the 20M $SOFI shares borrowed today.
Just because they are borrowed doesn't mean they've been sold short.
And as for anyone who is wondering "What do they know that we don't?" Unless there was an earnings leak, they don't know more than any of us. Relax.
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Be careful out there folks! “Experts” really dont like it when someone challenges their incorrect methods
IF you use DCFs to value lenders, please block me. You are a moron
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@Citrini7
@TheStalwart
Of all persons to get upset, Morgan Stanley should keep their mouth shut. Let's not forget their recent block trade scandal. I'd call that manipulation too
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I got plenty of issues with Nate Silver but this tweet below is a perfect illustration of what’s wrong with so many of our institutions and even society.
“not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials”
Labels and “credentials” hold way too much power
Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn’t have the faintest idea how to turn the keys. He’s not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials. He was wrong when he said I could not make an early prediction of Obama‘s
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Hope you are onboard The $CARE Express 🚂 🚀
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Another bank selling their Insurance business, another bank making itself worse off over the longer-term. Sigh.
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West Corner of 57th and Park Ave: The Below TBV Corner
$BKU $C
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Krista is one of my favorite bank CEOs and her first deal looks like a great one.
Proud $SCZC holder
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A thread of wonderful charts from
@apolloglobal
’s Torsten Slok and some commentary (serious and sarcastic)
🧵
1) What a beautiful picture for my fellow bank M&A lovers
(hopefully you don’t hope for a bank to sell in a state with a lot of farms)
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almost every bank in the country is slowing Consumer lending, but $SOFI
but yeah, the inexperienced lenders are right and keep highlighting their growth
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It is amazing to me that people with no background in investing choose to try to invest in Financials. Literally any other sector would be a better choice
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As mentioned in this post, I have said for a couple months now that I think C&I losses will be greater than CRE for the banking industry. I feel pretty strongly about it.
One clarification on my view for those who have asked - I expect loss rates to be higher not necessarily $$
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it makes me very happy knowing $ALLY took a fat dump on the chest of the compounder bros who bought after Jeff Brown left. you knew better than he did?
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Alright, I got a hot take…
$PNFP should trade at similar multiples to $OZK & are more similar than many realize
1. Really good at what they do
2. No “Franchise” to really buy
3. Key people(s) risk
I think there is a lot more risk to the $PNFP “thesis” than meets the eye,
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I have no absolutely no clue how much Mf’ing MOMO is left in this leg of the bank/SCSC rally, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it has more juice based on how salty some people are about it.
Also, don’t be fooled. This ain’t some fugazzi, Bill Hwang crap rally. It is a narrative
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Banks hit pretty good today, on the curve and FFWM news (IMO).
Stay frosty, add on days like this if you are bullish like I am, and see you in January at $60
$FFWM news is actually constructive to me, as was $NYCB recap. Private capital stepping up should tell you a lot.
Will the banks get smoked tomorrow? probably
Are there tons of shit banks? certainly
Are there great shorts in the group? oh yes
Be patient, don’t be
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wow, Moody's coming for blood in the mid-cap bank space... $FNB, $FULT, $ONB, $WAFD all placed on downgrade watch
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5.25% CD is the same size as the logo… apparently the NIM has not bottomed at OceanFirst
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If you don’t follow Ken, shame on you. Consider this your chance, don’t get fooled again. When it comes to banks [and plenty of other stuff] he’s a wealth of knowledge, has incredible experience and is a top-notch investor. Also, check out that pic he’s got now. Stud
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Seems like there’s a good chance we learn down the road GLP-1s do more harm than good for those not obese.
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@NegativeGW
I think I can speak for the group of us since we discussed this this morning and say absolutely fucking no chance it wasn’t… just like NYCB jacking up reserves and migrating credit wasn’t 🥸🥸
@PhilTimyan
@Capt_GN
@shaskell12
@KSKInvestors
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@TDBank_US
should have only been allowed to keep their charter if they made Vernon Hill CEO. Death by a thousand cuts would be more enjoyable than just taking the charter.
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@DataDInvesting
Serious question. What type of high earning consumer needs debt consolidation loans?
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@TimyanBankAlert
1.07x TBV is interesting. Makes me think about
@SteveChuck5
’s comments about Piedmont only getting 1.4x TBV. If the better set of community banks are getting 1.4x and crappy ones are getting 1.07x (really only bc they have decent deposits and prob get less if not), lot of wake
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$BAC has been DOOMED for 13 years!
GarrettMcAuley: "The Bank of America’s unrealized bond portfolio losses now exceed $100 billion. That’s about the equivalent (on a pretax basis) of half of the company’s tangible common equity. Wow."
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