Nick Howard
@nickhowardpoker
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J4 scandal is unique in the sense that if you rely on the takes of the "smartest" people, you will get a (very) inflated value on the likelihood of cheating.
Because one thing smart people struggle with is accounting for irrational behavior.
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The poker pro's urge to snap assign a 0% chance that a recreational player could do something completely irrational.
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Cheat code for poker:
Gym, good nutrion, and a strict playing schedule. 90% of your competition ignores all three.
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Sex is great but have you ever tried not taking 3-bets personally
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Had a German guy at my table randomly ask if I wanted $200 in blind action on Notre Dame vs St Mary. Pure degen energy.
I accepted and we flipped for sides.
Toward the end he realizes Duke is White not blue.
After the game we both realized it was a replay.
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If you don’t believe you can make a living player poker, you’ll never commit to that path.
Instead, you’ll listen to people who tell you that poker is dying and watch your dream slowly die.
Poker is booming.
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You don't need more sims.
You need to sit down in that soft 5/10 game, order a round of beers, play red-or-black for a while and then get that motherfucking straddle on.
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90% of building a successful poker career is not quitting and not burning out.
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Updated position after new theft evidence:
From 80% did not cheat 🚫
To 90% did cheat ✅
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@DougPolkVids
@DougPolkVids
you're like that one guy at the pool party who makes sure to point out everyone else's physical deformities the moment they take their clothes off
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Your goal as poker player should be to systematically identify every type of thought you have during a hand that does not improve your win rate, and to eliminate those thoughts at a pace that you are in emotional agreement with.
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You don't need mindset training.
You need to bluff-raise more rivers and stop eating pizza for breakfast.
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Observation:
Players who use poker as a vessel to get better at life are always getting better at poker
🧐
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A big part of playing great poker is remembering how hard it is to deal with aggression, and then relentlessly putting your opponents in those same spots.
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Every time you begin a new month as a poker player, ask yourself
(1) what should I stop doing
(2) what should I start doing
(3) what should I keep doing
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Reasons to become a professional poker player:
Needs fast money ❌
Desires to prove oneself ❌
Loves the game ✅
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In 2012, I ate dog food.
Today I own one of the largest poker staking companies in the world.
Here's a 3 minute breakdown of a 10 year struggle-to-success story.
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Poker won't work for most people, but that's not because the game is too hard to learn. It's because the requirement for becoming good is that you learn to value plain vanilla logic over the need to stand out as strategically special.
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If you're having a bad day just remember that high stakes regs still over-fold to delay stabs by 20%
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3 things poker has shown me to be more valuable than any achievement:
1. How you treat others when you are losing.
2. How you treat others when they are losing.
3. How you treat yourself when you make a mistake.
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Professional poker players find themselves in a terrible situation:
They leaned into the game as a way to avoid career accountability, only to find out that it requires more accountability than most careers.
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If you've ever lost a large portion of your bankroll:
You didn't waste your money.
You purchased a greater perspective and a deeper level of maturity.
(And probably ran like shit)
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Unpopular opinion:
An extroverted nit is far worse for the game than an aggro guy with headphones on.
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If you don't have a weekly schedule, you're not a professional poker player.
You're an adult child who hates to be held accountable.
Build a schedule.
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A big reason poker gets harder as you move up in stakes is because the competition cares less and less about money.
Lesson there.
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5 small stakes poker habits that GUARANTEE you will get to the next level:
1. Fold less
2. Bluff more
3. Value bet thinner
4. Game select
5. Build schedule 🗓️
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Imagine how fucked we are when aliens pull up if we lose 2 full days of life when someone calls with Jack high.
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Your goal:
Learn as many lessons at small stakes as possible so that you don't have to re-live them at high stakes.
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Professional poker players are really good at stepping over a dollar to pick up a nickel
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The best poker players have a very simple thought process in a lot more spots than you think.
Your goal should be to eliminate noise.
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If you're having a bad day playing online poker just remember that the Commerce Casino is the most disgusting place in the world.
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You can be mad that Bryn Kenney is getting Main Event coverage, or you can knock him the fuck out.
Who's gonna carry the boats??
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A lot of struggling poker players don't feel safe admitting to mistakes because they were raised in environments where mistakes got them punished.
So they learn to deny the mistake, which denies them of growth.
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The strongest poker players in the world have these 3 traits in common:
1. Rapid self forgiveness (when making mistakes)
2. Non-resistance (to variance when running bad)
3. Completely shameless (when running well)
#3
tells all
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If you're going to call a large river bet, try to call quickly so that if you lose you can tell your opponent that they could have won your whole stack.
This is surprisingly tilting.
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Poker can take everything from you.
But it probably won't.
What it will certainly do is hand you life lessons faster than almost any other career.
Here are the 5 most important life lessons I've learned from 15 years in the industry.
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It’s amazing how much easier it gets to make a living playing poker once you clock in consistently.
A simple schedule gets you 80% of the way to $5K/month.
Build a schedule.
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A high-stakes player telling a low-stakes player that it takes "superior intellect" to beat high stakes is like Joe Biden telling an average citizen that it takes superior intellect to become president.
It doesn't.
It takes funding and clear instructions.
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One good thing about live poker is that there's always one guy at the table who will start ripping shots with you when things start getting dark
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Why Poker Hand Analysis Is Bullshit, And How the Best Players Are Actually Winning
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Young poker players have the single most valuable resource on their side—time.
You can use it to dick around, or you can go live inside Bally's for a year and get your priorities straight.
@LandonTice
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80% confident that she did NOT cheat 🚫
99.9% confident that she IS a diabolical covert narcissist ☑️
100% confident there is long run benefit from everyone witnessing how much damage premature cheating accusations can cause.
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You're stuck at small stakes because you still get wasted on Saturday, which immobilizes you on Sunday and makes you slow on Monday.
By Tuesday you're tilted, and by Thursday you're burned out again.
But it's all ok, because another Saturday is right around the corner.
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Not a hot take, but it’ll piss people off:
You cannot get to $5K/month playing poker until you're on a schedule that allows you to consistently put in hands.
A lot of beginners have what it takes, but few carve out the time.
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Most players will never get to 5K/month because they're just too passive.
3 reasons why:
1. They are not properly bankrolled.
2. They don't have a stable decision making process.
3. They are ashamed of losing big pots with weak hands.
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After reading a lot of takes on J4:
The blowup crowd underacknowledges how sketchy it is that she correctly called in the only instance we know of where she felted Jack high.
The cheating crowd underacknowledges how possible it is for a bad player to tilt-call with Jack high.
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Success in poker is inevitable once you start studying with players who value data over opinion.
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The thing you need to understand about live poker is that it's a gold mine for people who technically suck at cards, but are skilled in human behavior.
Plus network effects.
Bonus for being good at cards.
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If I could teleport 14 years back I would arrive in Florida to find an 8 year old
@landontice
First bang his mom and then indoctrinate him into data-driven strategies.
Next get him an Ignition account and make him sign a 5M hand contract.
Free him on his 18th birthday.
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A poker career is a problem solving process.
The clearest thinking players I've met aren't necessarily smarter, they just have the ability to ground into problem-solving for longer periods of time.
Unclear thinkers get overwhelmed quickly by problems and collapse.
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Unpopular opinion,:
If you enforce a technical ruling on a player who clearly made an innocent mistake, and that ruling helps you win the hand, you are angling.
High rational/low empathy people usually have a hard time wrapping their head around that one.
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I've noticed something in poker.
Some players go it alone, while other players seek out a community.
The players who belong to a community tend to last longer and progress further.
Why do you think?
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Unpopular opinion:
Many players subconsciously gravitate toward poker to escape structure and science, only to get their asses handed to them by opponents who respect structure and science.
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You will play better poker once you clearly understand why you made a mistake, and trust yourself not to make it again.
This is how you get to high stakes.
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Being able to convince yourself that you have the nuts when you're all-in with a bluff is a superpower.
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Somewhere, there's a toxic Discord channel where disgruntled regs are shitting on your entire strategy after playing 25 hands with you.
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Somewhere a whale just went allin with 84s preflop.
Find that game.
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Low stakes players:
You don't need more volume, you need more edge.
High stakes players:
You don't need more edge, you need more volume and better game selection.
The strategy changes at different levels of the career.
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I stopped trying to range players when 200M hands of population data showed me that I had no clue what people were thinking.
Groundbreaking.
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If live poker seems boring, it means you've lost touch with how many edges are available.
Creative live pros find edges everywhere they look 👀
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You don't need more sims.
You need to eat more protein, cut out rancid fats and walk through nature until you work up the balls to review your disaster hands.
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If you are afraid of looking stupid, you are not ready for high stakes poker.
Get over that on the come-up. 🪜
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Two days ago I walked past the HU match at Resorts World and looked through the glass.
Airball's soul has already been taken.
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5 things you will not regret doing as a poker player:
1) Starting a blog
2) Traveling
3) Investing in your education
4) Playing the bomb pot
5) Redlining
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All of the stress you feel at the poker table boils down to a denial of these two things:
1. Playing in games that put too much stress on your bankroll.
2. Perfectionism in zones where you haven't developed a stable decision making process.
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When you label another poker player "lucky", you reveal to the world that you don't play professional levels of volume.
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I love the WSOP -- but..
From a business standpoint low buyin live events are a trap.
A lot of you are making like $15 an hour to sit there and wait to get COVID.
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Normalize the feeling of being a frustrated poker player so you can stop fighting for unrealistic levels of control.
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Why 1 message brought me to 99% DID cheat ✅
Look at the red zone below. It will show you how covert narcissists behave when they're caught in a lie + almost out of moves:
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Not sure who needs to hear this but buying in for 10,000 big blinds isn't intimidating, it's embarrassing
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•She doesn't understand that J4 loses to bluffs
•She doesn't understand that she dominates value with AK on xxxxA
•She has no stable decision making process
So let's just stare at her pants.
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My new podcast just launched. It's a project designed to help poker players diversify into safer territory, with a lot of poker insights and personal stories I'm sharing for the first time in my 15-year career 😋
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Common poker leak:
Missing a value bet because you're afraid of facing a raise.
Easy fix:
Practice separating the EV of the bet from the fear that you'll face a raise.
It won't happen that often.
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I used to know a live pro who loved to tell his opponent that they "shouldn't have used that sizing" immediately after the hand.
He is no longer playing poker.
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If you can't spot the signal in your first half hour at the poker table..
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Did I really need to eat the dog food?
Probably not.
Was it some masochistic impulse to cement a rock bottom experience?
Probably.
Did it fuel me with a new level of intensity?
Definitely.
Could most struggling poker players benefit from things getting worse?
Yes.
🐕
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Imagine getting it in stone dead with case money and then driving a truck around until your best friend gets out of jail and convinces you to sack back up
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Here's a magic-pill poker concept you should try to understand each day before you study anything else:
You need to lift weights.
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I punted my entire poker bankroll when I was 16.
Worked a hard labor job to build back, then went pro.
Same year my best friend won $5K in a tourney and quit forever.
All that matters is the strength of your dream.
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Every six seconds a player gets called by bottom pair and changes his entire strategy.
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The most fucked up part about the cheaters playing at the WSOP is that they showed up.
No person on a forgiveness-based path would step back into the scene that soon.
That's sociopathic behavior.
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If you analyze 100M hands you'll find 100+ insane calls like J4.
If you analyze 1B hands you'll find 1000+.
Mostly by players who innocently imploded, and also some who probably cheated.
Worth acknowledging before pushing a narrative that it's "never before happened".
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Top 5 Reasons Poker Players Suffer From Burnout And End Up Quitting Forever (Plus Solutions)
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A good proxy for how strong your mindset is:
The ability to put all of your real world problems on hold the moment you enter a poker game.
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Low stakes players:
You don't need more volume, you need higher win rate.
High stakes players:
You don't need more win rate, you need more volume and better game selection.
The strategy changes at different stages of the career
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The collective belief that it's best to "wait for better spots" vs overly aggressive players is literally the narrative that upholds the aggressive edge.
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The fact that you don't know how to make $100K a year as a poker player is costing you $100K a year.
Groundbreaking.
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The rate at which you learn is directly correlated to the amount of embarrassing questions you're willing to ask along the way
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Any attempt to suppress your poker impulses at the table will put a ceiling on your long term performance.
Once a week, just drop down a couple limits and get all the fancy play out of your system.
This is how you responsibly process your inner degen.
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The Most Dangerous Path You Can Take As A Poker Player, And How To Avoid It:
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If you feel like you need to apologize to a backer upon bricking a major tournament, you're in an unhealthy relationship.
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If poker feels complicated you do not need an even more complicated strategy to neutralize it.
Simplicity = 5k+/month
That's rent money.
DM me if you're stuck on your path and tell me your situation, I'll try to help out.
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Poker players make the mistake of thinking that not *showing* emotion = not *feeling* emotion.
Feeling your emotions is the first step to acknowledging them.
Acknowledging them is necessary to process them.
Self sabotage occurs when unacknowledged emotions go unprocessed.
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The amount we punish ourselves for making a mistake is wildly disproportionate to the amount we love ourselves for doing our best
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What's happening in poker right now is actually really beautiful.
And to think, it only took someone being publicly humiliated for being raped in the ass as a child to get the community mobilized.
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You don't need more sims.
You need to get your testosterone checked, hike through the nearest woods and stop folding top pair.
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