Nick Gourevitch
@nickgourevitch
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Democratic Pollster. Partner at Global Strategy Group ( @GSG ). Dad to three.
New York
Joined December 2009
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New NBC Poll has Project 2025's favorability at:
4% favorable
57% unfavorable (51% strongly unfavorable!)
It's become so incredibly toxic in such a short time.
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Pew released their annual study of the rest of the world's views of the US and its gov't. The results weren't pretty. What a crazy chart:
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George W. Bush's ethics lawyer filed a complaint yesterday against the FBI for violations of the Hatch Act. Via NYT:
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Hey Bret Stephens (who you can’t even @ anymore) and
@nytopinion
, this assertion in your column today has no basis in fact. Polls show wide majority support for stay-at-home orders and opposition to reopening too aggressively. What you call “much of America” is a fringe position.
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Mark Cuban did his homework and found so many of the allegations against Hillary lack evidence. Well done
@mcuban
.
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Meals on Wheels serves meals to 2.4 million seniors, including 500k veterans each year. But no one loves our veterans more than Donald Trump
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Trump tweets “no kneeling.” NFL post this. If Goodell is serious and has a spine, he needs to 1) kneel Week 1 with the players and 2) more directly apologize to Kaepernick and figure how to right that wrong.
We, the NFL, condemn racism and the systematic oppression of Black People. We, the NFL, admit we were wrong for not listening to NFL players earlier and encourage all to speak out and peacefully protest. We, the NFL, believe Black Lives Matter.
#InspireChange
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To whom it may concern:
If you would like to see an actual polling bump for handling a crisis well, see this morning’s
@SienaResearch
poll of NY voters:
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Want to understand the FOX News echo chamber? New polling from Navigator shows GOP voters who watch FOX News hold dramatically different views than even GOP voters who don't watch the network, especially on topics like the wall and the deep state:
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Never forget this photo when this guy tries to run for President
From our Francis Chung, Sen. Josh Hawley greeting protesters in the east side of the Capitol before riots began.
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Obamacare favorability at an all-time high in FOX News poll. Can’t wait for the closing ads from Republicans: “And if those Democrats try to take away your Obamacare, I’ll fight to protect it like I’ve always done.”
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You know who else is uniquely unpopular
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Measures of Trump's popularity:
1) Small inaugural TV ratings & crowds
2) Historically low poll numbers
3) Lost popular vote by ~3 million
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Less than a week in and the Trump administration in the midst of an all-out assault on science, medicine, research, transparency, and facts.
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Impressive that Donald Trump was able to take that small $1 million dollar loan from his father and turn it in a $916 million dollar loss.
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Cuomo coronavirus approval among NY voters = 84% approve/15% disapprove
Trump = 34% approve/65% disapprove
Cuomo even has a higher corona approval rating than Trump w/ NY Republicans and conservatives. That is quite remarkable in this polarized era. Via new
@SienaResearch
poll:
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This removes a huge a talking point for Trump. He can't say stop the count now...
Biden has taken the lead in Michigan, according to the AP
Along with AZ, NV and WI, he now leads in states worth 270 electoral votes--the number needed to win
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Same story, different day
1) Trump makes deeply offensive statement
2) Others in GOP pretend to be outraged
3) There are no consequences
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Trump praising how Putin deals with political opposition is just incredibly disturbing
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At some point, some (bogus) pundits pushed a line that voters were souring on impeachment. This has never really been supported by the polls, including this one, which have shown stable, net positive support for impeachment since the whole process started.
Brand new Fox poll: "On impeachment, by a 50-44 percent margin, voters think the Senate should vote to convict Trump and remove him from office."
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Nothing is more Twitter than doomscrolling the end of Twitter
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Might be time to finally grab that Biden flag and drive around the neighborhood in my minivan.
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Remarkable uptick in negative views of Project 2025. In just three weeks, it went from being viewed unfavorably by 19% of the public to 43% - as rapid a polling rise for a policy agenda as I can remember in that short a time period.
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The problem is worse than that. Trump listens to Fox News as if they were his intelligence agency.
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Trump responds to Bloomberg's speech by saying he hits a golf ball further than him. Cannot make this up:
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7 likely flips (IL, ME, KS, MI, NM plus looking good for WI and NV)
All Dem incumbents won.
If that’s not a great night then the expectations were completely out of whack.
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This is what I imagine the Trump campaign's internal polling presentations look like:
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Polls show sky-high support for DREAMers. 86% support allowing those who came here as a 5-year-old to stay. 83% for those who came as teens.
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Underrated polling story is the erosion in the intensity of Trump's job approval among Republicans. Shown here across two polls:
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Trump's not the only one w/ tanking poll numbers. Paul Ryan at 27% favorable / 48% unfavorable in new Quinnipiac. 53% unfav w/ Independents:
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The American people think that it’s the Republicans who are playing politics with impeachment, much more than they think the Democrats are doing so, by a good margin. Via latest FOX News poll:
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John Bel Edwards was the target of non-stop ads like this targeting him with Trumpist attacks on criminal justice and immigration. They didn’t work. And worth noting because JBE won because of both strong turnout by the Dem base AND crossover voting from Trump voters.
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Quite the pickle:
1) GOP will only bail on Trump when their voters bail on him
2) Their voters only get news via a GOP-created alt universe
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Russia very important, but we need to walk and chew gum: GOP trying to strip health care from millions, deport Dreamers, push through Puzder
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Wow. A majority of Americans think Jeff Sessions should resign according to latest
@QuinnipiacPoll
:
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Race-baiting not just a Virginia thing, but now the norm for Rs. Here's a vile mailer from Jack Martins, GOP candidate in Nassau County, NY:
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More people think Trump is treating the news media unfairly than vice versa. Trump has made news media sympathetic! Via Post/ABC poll:
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7: 63% say immigrants are more of a strength than a burden, HIGHEST LEVEL ON THIS IN 20 YEARS OF PEW SURVEYS (sorry for CAPS felt justified)
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Powerful statement: 10 popular leading patient orgs oppose AHCA
because it "would leave millions with inadequate, unaffordable care"
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50% of Americans “not at all confident” Trump has the right set of personal characteristics to be POTUS.
That is a bananas number compared to past Presidents (Obama 15%, GWB 22%, Clinton 13%). Via NBC/WSJ poll:
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About that one cherry-picked Trump approval poll he's been tweeting on... Great chart from
@DataDhrumil
:
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56% of Americans disapprove of Trump on immigration, highest disapproval of any issue tested in new CNN poll:
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Day 34 of
@NavigatorSurvey
tracking poll: This is the first time since we started our daily tracking poll on March 23rd that all four of Trump's approval ratings below are in the red, including economic approval.
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Recent news on impact of Trump's rhetoric:
1) Hispanics surging in FL/NV
2) Women voting at higher rates vs '12
3) HRC up w/ Jews 73%-18%
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The rationale behind the so-called "movement" to boycott stores requiring masks is completely rejected by the American people. 84% say stores requiring masks are acting responsibly to protect health. 16% say those stores are violating American values & freedoms. Not a close call.
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Bloomberg poll: Trump's mocking of a reporter's disability is rated as most bothersome item.
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Yes, why would you ever want to compare a law to the one it is replacing. That's just crazy-town.
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Trump won upstate New York in the election. His job rating there is now 33% positive, 66% negative. Via
@SienaResearch
:
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Unrelated: I've decided to stop eating bread, tomato sauce, and cheese. But it is not a pizza diet. If it were, I would be against it.
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This is why it's a Muslim Ban. 82% of Muslim refugees come from the seven countries in question.
So, looked at the numbers:
• 97k refugees admitted in 2016. 44k (46%) were Muslim
• Of those, Trump's 7 countries = 82% of Muslim refugees
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Inspired by
@leedrutman
's excellent, bookmarkable, 2016 voter study group analysis in 2016, the team at
@NavigatorSurvey
created a similar chart on it's post-election survey.
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If only there was a way to learn what “much of America” thinks without just making it up.
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Ted Cruz's week:
1) Endorsed Trump
2) Trump bombs in debate
3) Newsweek drops major story on Trump's illegal biz in CUBA!
#Karma
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Dems up 54%-38% on the generic ballot in latest CNN poll. First time GOP has been below 40% on that question in CNN polling since 2006.
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Michelle Obama is one of the most well liked public figures in America. Per NBC/WSJ poll:
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With Trump embracing anti-vaccine forces, worth reading this Ben Franklin quote on his regrets about not inoculating his son from smallpox:
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Repeal of ACA would:
1) Give 400 wealthiest households a tax cut of $7 million/yr
2) Raise taxes on 7 million low/middle income HHs
Via CBPP
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Can we stop with this Trump "struggled" w/ ending DACA canard. Trump is white nationalist, anti-immigrant to the core. Has been since day 1.
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1: Some tweets on
@pewresearch
's deep dive into Trump, starting w/ his historically poor favorable rating, worse than in other recent polls:
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I can tell you, unequivocally, that they are right to be terrified
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Funny how Trump wasn't complaining about rigged polls and voter fraud when he was winning primaries. Almost like it's because he's losing.
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Trump has used EVERY major speech he's had to perpetuate the lie that immigrants commit a disproportionate amount of violent crime. Shameful
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So here’s my in depth analysis of this one: please vote like it’s not +17 in Wisconsin because based on everything else we know, it’s not +17 in Wisconsin.
NEW
@ABC
/
@washingtonpost
polls out of Wisconsin and Michigan (Likely voters)
Wisconsin
Biden: 57% (+17)
Trump: 40%
Michigan
Biden: 51% (+7)
Trump: 44%
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More Clinton voters are saying they are voting FOR Hillary (as opposed to against Trump) than ever before. Trump stagnant on this. ABC poll:
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Important to understand that it's the core 19% of the public who are GOP Fox News watchers who are unattainable. But GOP voters who aren't FOX watchers (19%) and non-GOP voters who watch FOX (15%) hold more moderate views and should not be written off.
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On the left, UC Berkeley's public statement. On the right, Donald Trump's. Not hard to determine who has more respect for the Constitution.
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ABC/Post poll, the main evidence cited that Comey had an impact, is now back at pre-Comey levels (and I'd bet it improves again tomorrow)
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Pssst... You might want to look at the rest of that poll: 59% disapproval rating, 56% grade your first year as a “D” or “F”, most common word used to describe past year is “disaster”
In new Quinnipiac Poll, 66% of people feel the economy is “Excellent or Good.” That is the highest number ever recorded by this poll.
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Trump is shaping public opinion... by pushing it in the opposite direction. The % who say immigration strengthens the U.S. at all-time high:
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Your regular reminder that Obama is going to be a very popular public figure for a long time. When Reagan left office he was 77. Obama is 55
Barack Obama is now viewed more positively than Ronald Reagan was in 1988.
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While this article focuses on the scary number of people who believe in Jan. 6th conspiracy theories, a more electorally important angle:
56%-33% think Trump is guilty
57%-41% think Trump Trump should be held accountable
These are large margins in our hyper-polarized country.
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72% of Clinton voters strongly oppose GOP health care bill
13% of Trump voters strongly support it
That is not a typo
HuffPost/YouGov poll: *Strong* opposition to AHCA outstrips *total support* for the bill
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Some pundits would have you believe this election is no longer about the coronavirus pandemic. The American people would like a word... 61% say it's one of their top issues via latest
@NavigatorSurvey
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Extremely disappointed in what I saw on TV last night, such as: 1) Coloring states red/blue based on who was leading at the time 2) Saying "ooh" look Biden/Trump is winning/losing with 50% in 3) Not stressing every possible moment results are meaningless unless full counts are in
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Consequence of GOP alternate media universe: GOP base voters dont even see bad stories on Trump, reducing GOP leaders' power over own voters
On Fox News, Trump's hot mic moment is being called "the events of last night" -- no mention of what happened, or even of Trump.
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56% of Americans say Trump's response to the pandemic has been chaotic, 54% erratic, 44% honest, 44% competent.
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Very dangerous for our democracy: Nearly all GOP electeds silent on 1) jailing political opponents 2) undermining legitimacy of elections
Hillary Clinton should have been prosecuted and should be in jail. Instead she is running for president in what looks like a rigged election
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Yet another reminder that this is not a “both sides” 50-50 culture war. This is a 75-25 landslide issue.
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Let’s keep the conversation on pre-existing conditions Democrats
NEW: 58% of voters say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to continue
#PreExistingConditions
protections – twice the share (26%) that says they trust Republicans more. Democrats also hold a trust advantage on most other health care issues.
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Day 10 of
@NavigatorSurvey
tracking poll: At least one aspect of Trump's bubble has been punctured. 40% of Trump voters say he didn't take coronavirus seriously enough in the early days -- a figure that has been rising in recent days.
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Pence gets booed at Hamilton and Trump takes his outrage direct to Twitter. Neo-nazis salute Trump and we get this empty press release.
Full statement from Trump transition team, responding to weekend's conference of National Policy Institute, held in DC:
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3: A majority of Americans say Trump has done "too little" to distance himself from white nationalists. Voters ARE paying attention to this.
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Reminder: 93% of Americans support vetting fellow Americans before they can buy a gun. But the GOP doesn't support that kind of vetting.
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Democrats are currently driving that negativity, which is good for driving voter enthusiasm about the stakes of the election. But the prior
@NavigatorSurvey
shows how Independents turn deeply negative when they learn more, showing it can be an effective persuasion tool as well.
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80% want Trump to release his tax returns, including 64% of GOP. Also 90%+ believe too many loopholes for wealthy & corporations.
#TaxMarch
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65% want Russia special prosecutor via new CNN poll. Also one of few issues where there's not a big white college vs white non-college split
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AHCA likely to fail not because some in GOP dont want to take coverage away from 24 million but because some in GOP want even deeper cuts.
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Was off Twitter for most of the day. So the GOP consensus is now that the entirety of yesterday’s Trump-Putin fiasco can be walked back if we just change one “would” to “wouldn’t”? What an embarrassment of a political party.
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Important rebuttal to an oft-repeated Trump lie. Kudos to WSJ for this but it should make more news than crowd size.
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I know there’s stuff in here about snakes and moats and it’s easy to joke... But this story is awful and it’s hard to say anything else more about it but that.
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As GOP elected officials come out with statements of condemnation today, remember:
1) Dog whistle ads are being run by the GOP across this country
2) No GOP official running for re-election dares to criticize Trump
3) Steve King is allowed to exist in the GOP
The list goes on.
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Trump buying ads in New Mexico is what happens when you have a data team that polls heavily Latino states using English-only interviewers.
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9: Mike Pence getting the wrong kind of Trump coattails. The most unpopular VP-elect in recent history:
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Underrated story is that Trump is likely to start his tenure as one of the least popular, if not THE least popular, Presidents in history
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This headline did not hold up well
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