Abhishek Jha
@naalmot
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Data journalist @htTweets
New Delhi, India
Joined May 2010
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The Yamuna flood in Delhi continues to break records. It is hard not to see the reason behind it, but here are numbers and maps that show the speed of urbanisation close to Yamuna.
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Street lights switched off on Baba Gangnath Marg, which is in front of JNU gate.
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Women's low labour force participation in India can now be directly linked to their burden of household work.
@htTweets
story today with
@Roshanjnu
:
(1/n)
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Narayana Murthy seems to suggest Indian workers are lazy. In a two-part series,
@Roshanjnu
and I checked
1. If Indian workers are lazy ⬇️, and
2. If there are enough employers for hard-working job seekers (out tomorrow)
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173
Why is Delhi's air bad this year despite an apparent decrease in farm fires? I try to explain here. (1/2)
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Only around half of India usually eats three or more meals a day. Richer people are more likely to do this, but region can be an even bigger factor, HCES/CES data shows. With
@Roshanjnu
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Nuh/Mewat might be underdeveloped and prone to crime, but it has not seen any communal riots in recent history until Monday, data show. With
@Roshanjnu
in today's
@htTweets
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Wayanad was not the rainiest place in Kerala yesterday. It turned deadliest because a large part of the district is susceptible and exposed to landslides. This is well known/mapped by now, but destruction goes on.
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The 2020-21 PLFS shows the lowest unepmployment rate since the first one in 2017-18. But that number doesn't have much meaning if we don't look at the quality of jobs in the pandemic. TLDR: Unpaid/low-wage family/farm work (1/n)
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Jati-level economic indicators -- what other government surveys don't show -- is the new thing in the Bihar caste survey data released yesterday. With
@Roshanjnu
and
@NishantTISS
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2021-22 PLFS report shows unemployment falling to its lowest level since 2017-18. Does this mean labour markets are completely stress free now? Not really,
@Roshanjnu
and I show using unit-level data.
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The wait for NYE might be a good time to catch up on India's job story in the past 5 years. In a 4-part series, we used population projections to track changes in a clearer way than the PLFS reports do. The 1st part estimated India's labour force growth:
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The 2020-21 PLFS data confirms what appeared to be the pandemic's impact on migration in India. A few more insights (on reverse migration + job status) than the report in this story:
(1/n)
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Incumbents will remain in power in four of the five states whose election results were announced yesterday. But the result of these elections do show us some new things. Here's what we at
@htTweets
saw in the numbers (1/n):
@Roshanjnu
,
@kpavi1602
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PART 2 of intra-religion inequality among Muslims and their economic position w.r.t other religious groups with
@Roshanjnu
:
Not only are Muslims as a group economically behind others, even upper caste Muslims are not among richer social groups of India. To be sure, (1/2)
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Too early to say what the Budget's job schemes will amount to, but here is what we know about salaried jobs in general. E.g. Salaried jobs are 20%, but salaried jobs with social security -- Budget aims to create this kind of work -- are less than half of that. With
@Roshanjnu
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How do Indians spend their day? Today's
@htTweets
tells that story set to a Beatles song.
Analysis by
@Roshanjnu
and me based on the unit-level data of the recently released Time Use Survey.
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As promised, more stories in today's edition of
@htTweets
.
@Roshanjnu
explains why Narendera Modi's margin has fallen and how the margin compares with other sitting prime ministers' margin. 1/n
Our edition today is a labour of love and collective effort of the entire newsroom. Make sure you get your copy. Sharing snippets of our data coverage in the thread 1/n
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Yesterday,
@Roshanjnu
& I showed how centre's affidavit was wrong to suggest that stubble burning doesn't cause pollution in Delhi. Today: Why we can't expect farmers to stop burning stubble without a holistic overhaul of agricultural policy.
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A
@CASIPenn
survey has found many interesting things about women's labour force participation in India. I show some important findings here from work by
@DeepaboliC
,
@NeelanjanSircar
,
@meganmax2315
, and
@MilanV
:
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PM Modi's outreach to Pasmanda Muslims earlier this week seems to suggest that Muslims are a more unequal society in India than other religious groups. In a 2-part series,
@Roshanjnu
+ I check if that is true and how Muslims are placed overall w.r.t to other groups. First part ⬇️
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Only firecrackers explain how Delhi went from best pre-Diwali air in five years to second worst post-Diwali air.
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BJP's Karnataka loss is not any bigger than its losses in other major states, but Congress gains are more impressive in Karnataka than in those other states,
@Roshanjnu
and I show in today's
@htTweets
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India's progression to a million cases: district-wise cumulative Covid-19 cases (6/n)
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Bihar has one of the largest shares of agricultural workers, but farm loan waivers, Modi government's agricultural reforms -- agriculture in general -- is barely an issue in Bihar elections. Why?
@Roshanjnu
and I explain in five charts:
1/4
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We know women do most of the domestic work in India. But how much more? A first-of-its-kind NSO survey puts numbers to this:
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This August so far is the 2nd driest since 1901 in India. It has reversed all the rain deficit July had fixed for the 2023 monsoon.
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The rumours around migrant workers being beaten up in Tamil Nadu turned out to be false. But what is the nature of the problems migrants face in India? How many of them face such problems? The MIS data released by NSSO can answer these questions.
@htTweets
analysed to find out:
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Heavy rain on Sep 5 (higher than 99.9% of days since 1 Jan 1901) cannot be an excuse for Bengaluru floods. Because 1. Such rain is expected, and 2. With rapid urbanisation, floods will happen even with less rain.
Full story here:
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HT's data & political economy team, with a lot of help from designers & editors, has six stories today covering the Budget without peppering them with charts; and six graphics that tell the story only through charts. First the chart-light stories, all by
@Roshanjnu
(1/n)
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ECI told us how many 1st time voters the 2024 election has, but not what they do. NSSO surveys can give us a good idea:
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The broad social composition that Bihar Caste Census shows isn't completely new information. Here is what the data released so far shows and what it is expected to show if released in full. With
@Roshanjnu
in today's
@htTweets
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Part 2 with
@Roshanjnu
: There just aren't enough companies who can make value with an enterprising worker.
Narayana Murthy seems to suggest Indian workers are lazy. In a two-part series,
@Roshanjnu
and I checked
1. If Indian workers are lazy ⬇️, and
2. If there are enough employers for hard-working job seekers (out tomorrow)
4
77
173
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14
33
Unless they abandon/contest more of their allies by final day of nomination, the Congress will contest the lowest number of seats in a Lok Sabha election in 2024. Have tactics played a role in this?
@Roshanjnu
and I explain in today's
@htTweets
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The story so far on electoral bonds:
@sreedevkkumar
and I accounted for what we know, what we don't, and what we won't know even on March 21.
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If you already know the survey results, why waste people/money on survey?
“The survey will show that there has been a substantial increase in jobs.”
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Re: Zomato. Vegetarians are a minority in India, across most religions, but with a big caveat. Quasi-vegetarianism and food segregation is also very high in India. With
@Roshanjnu
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2020-21 PLFS is the first to ask why people were not in the labour force. All age data shows, for majority of men out of labour force, 'want to continue study' is the biggest reason. For women, childcare and homemaking is the biggest reason. (2/n)
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New data shows Sikkim's urbanisation has happened far more in "very high" flood risk zones than the India average. With global warming on top of that -- all temperature data shows 2023 is far ahead of previous records -- GLOF events like that in Sikkim can only increase.
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Why has BJP been winning Assam despite Assam having the largest share of Muslims among states in India?
@Roshanjnu
and I explain today's
@htTweets
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Here's this explained in a chart for Haryana. To be sure, still only around 23% votes counted in the state.
Part of the reason for this could be that BJP has a higher median vote share i.e. its overall vote share is less because it has polled badly in seats it is losing.
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I analyse PLFS data to show a disease like coronavirus requires that the govt make arrangements for paid leaves during such outbreaks. Reason: Even among regular wage workers, not all get paid leaves.
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ECMWF forecasts suggest very high temperatures all across India.
@jayashreenandi
on its link to climate crisis:
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June-December 2021: Not the most books I have read in a year (and two I'd half-read before re-reading them in full this year), but... (1/3)
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What does the drop in turnout% in first two phases mean for absolute turnout? Very hard to answer this given some PC boundaries have changed and ECI is not forthcoming with detailed data on electors, tried to answer that question here:
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This is not a pleasant part of the year even usually, but a long streak of no rain/only very light rain has led to maximums going far above normal to the highest ever levels. The second-part of this series will show why the heat felt unbearable even where temps weren't highest.
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Long-term economic outcomes are hard to predict because of the uncertainties involved. However, India's demographic composition in 2047 can be reasonably estimated.
@Roshanjnu
and I use that to evaluate the government's Amrit Kaal strategy.
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The PLFS 2019-20 (July 2019-June 2020) data released last week gives us a fuller picture of what happened to jobs during the first lockdown. In today's
@htTweets
with
@Roshanjnu
:
1/n
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For around 2/3rd of PCs, the 2024 election season is slotted for nearly their hottest period of the year. Forecast shows even the first phase polling will be very hot.
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India was not alone in recording an unusually hot March this year. Charts inside show how unusual it was for the world.
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This fellowship is how I learnt to do almost everything I do at work. If news + data excites you, this is the perfect work and training opportunity.
We are inviting applications for a 4-month long data journalism fellowship with Hindustan Times and How India Lives.
Applications close on May 15.
Read the advertisement below before sending your applications.
Link to apply
Please spread the word
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Both the farm laws enacted in 2020 & the protests against it seek to improve farm incomes. The latest SAS offers insights into how that can be done.
@Roshanjnu
and I analyse its unit-level data in this two part series. First: the output market. 1/n
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After an exact name match of donors with MCA database,
@Howindialives
fetched their unique ID, and looked into basic data available from MCA on them. This is what that shows:
#ElectoralBondsCase
#ElectoralBonds
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NFHS also has data on food habits (the next best thing given NSO consumption survey was junked). In Part 2 today,
@kpavi1602
tracks the trends in past five years. The Indian diet has improved but continues to be poor.(1/n)
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Reports of deaths by suicide due to pressures, uncertainty created by the pandemic were not just anecdotes. Students, small entrepreneurs registered a big increase in such deaths in 2020, shows NCRB data released yesterday.
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Karnataka votes today. The HT data & political economy team has explained this election in a detail over the past month and a half. Here are numbers + charts + maps that explain today's election.
First, some headline numbers by
@Roshanjnu
and me: (1/n)
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400 of India’s 543 Lok Sabha seats have voted in state elections after May 2019. Can their results tell us anything about 2024?
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PART 3: Where are the Aravallis? How much of their forests have been destroyed? Where is this happening the most? The latest developments in Haryana show these questions are interconnected.
#Aravallis
are integral to lives in NCR. Here's why:
@htTweets
spotlight on
#Aravallis
part 2 captures why
#Aravalli
range that
#Haryana
doesn't want to recognise is critical for the region's survival
#biodiversity
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The Books of 2022. The ruined spine is appropriately Don Quixote's. 4,000 pages more than last year. Could've been another 5,000 more, but...
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The focus on air quality in NCR could be because most our air quality stations are located there. Satellite data suggests that even as air quality has worsened in NCR in the last two decades, it has perhaps worsened more in districts further east:
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Part of the reason for this could be that BJP has a higher median vote share i.e. its overall vote share is less because it has polled badly in seats it is losing.
Congress trailing in Haryana despite over 3 pp lead in vote share. Not many seats with close margins as of now.
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Why are all parties trying to outdo each other in promising jobs in Bihar polls?
@Roshanjnu
and I explain using employment and migration data:
(1/4)
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1st of a 2-part series on policy & politics during a recession by
@Roshanjnu
, me: The economic pain of the recession won't be felt by all equally. We can address that only if aren't dependent on decade-old surveys & make the high-frequency ones avlbl fast
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Salaried work was at its lowest level and unpaid self-employment at it highest level in the PLFS series (2/n)
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Heat and humidity is only set to get worse from here on. PLFS data shows 49% of Indian workers must work outdoors irrspective of that.
@Roshanjnu
and I explain this in detail in today's
@htTweets
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Parties make promises to a wide range of economic groups in Karnataka although it is one of the richest states in the country. This is because the state's wealth is unequally distributed in different parts, largely in line with the historical status of these constituent regions.
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Polar ice melting is now affecting earth's rotation. This will delay the need for a negative leap second by three years.
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PLFS has only explicitly asked the reason for staying out of the labour force. TUS, NFHS, and even earlier EUS surveys have shown that women are constrained by unpaid domestic work. (5/n)
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Half of India has seen no rain at all so far in June. In the 1961-2010 period, around 90% of India received more than one day of rainfall in the June 1 - June 8 interval. It has rained that much in only 38% of the country this year.
#HTNumberTheory
| The high rainfall deficit this monsoon is not a result of only a few places receiving little rain.
Half the country has not received even a single day of rainfall in June
Read (by
@naalmot
)
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This has made us an economy with one of the worst gaps in labour force participation between men and women. (6/n)
Interactive chart:
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In adulthood, home making becomes an even bigger reason for women staying out of the labour force. While it is a bigger factor among married than unmarried women, even among unmarried women, it's a bigger reason than education once women are beyond early adulthood. (3/n)
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Young India is not cynical, apathetic, or lazy. It is deeply passionate about issues of public importance in the country and actively works on those issues. Here's proof. It has been
#10YearsOfYKA
.
#10YearsOfYKA
: What makes
@YouthKiAwaaz
the go-to platform for young people in India? 20 YKA users tell us:
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Whatever the exact cause of the Feb 7 disaster in Chamoli, such disasters are likely to become more frequent in the state.
@jayashreenandi
and I looked at the effect of climate change in the state & the impact of hydropower projects on its environment. 1/n
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This can also been by education status, where there is not much difference in the hindrance of homemaking even if women have received higher education (4/n)
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Apart from high max temp, the heat waves of the past month also had unprecedented min temp. Where temperature by itself was not record-breaking, humidity made heat index deadly.
This is not a pleasant part of the year even usually, but a long streak of no rain/only very light rain has led to maximums going far above normal to the highest ever levels. The second-part of this series will show why the heat felt unbearable even where temps weren't highest.
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PM Modi spoke about changing the legal age of marriage of women on I-Day. NFHS, PLFS data suggests changing that will have little impact on the lives of women.
With insightful observations from
@Jayati1609
and
@NeelanjanSircar
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It looks like those GFS forecasts weren't far off yesterday. Today might be hotter.
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Wealth inequality worsened in 2021 globally, the World Inequality Report 2022 released y'day shows. I summarise major findings for India:
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India has got both floods and heat waves right now. This is because of Biparjoy throwing the monsoon off course, apart from the monsoon being delayed. These maps how that has happened.
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Can dairy cooperatives be a political issue in Karnataka? The 2018-19 SAS and state's own surveys can help us answer that.
@Roshanjnu
and I looked up what that data says.
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Wish CPCB would publish the data the Economic Survey had the privilege of analysing.
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Theoretically, a party with organic support could become rich by a million people purchasing just one Rs 1,000 bond for it. But the electoral bond sheme was dominated by large, single-tranche donors. Some donors were quite regular though. With
@Roshanjnu
in today's
@htTweets
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For Part 3 of the NFHS series out today, we looked at the biggest news from the data: Total Fertitlity Rate falling below replacement level. While socio-economic groups with the biggest decline are those that had high TFR in 2015-16...(1/n)
NFHS also has data on food habits (the next best thing given NSO consumption survey was junked). In Part 2 today,
@kpavi1602
tracks the trends in past five years. The Indian diet has improved but continues to be poor.(1/n)
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The 2nd part shows headline unemployment's decreased because people found work. It's just that more than 1/3rd of worker addition is of the unpaid kind. Moreover, most new workers are in rural areas, even if they joined relatively urban industries:
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The Congress leading an opposition group against the BJP is not new in itself. But it is not the same kind of alliance that either Congress has done against BJP before or the Jan Sangh did against the Congress.
@NishantTISS
in today's
@htTweets
In a two part series,
@NishantTISS
describes the tripartite alignment taking place in Indian politics. First part quantifies the strength of the three groups:
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In UP, the SP managed to consolidate a large part of the opposition. But that was largely enough only for reducing the effective number of participants and decreasing BJP's victory margins. (2/n)
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Basic asset ownership increased, unless they are obsolete (such as radios). Growth + saturation is less for assets like TV and computers, perhaps because mobile phones are now everywhere. (2/n)
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Will farmers’ protests against the three repealed farm laws matter in the rest of the election cycle? This chart is only the most obvious clue to how much they will. For more, read this story by
@Roshanjnu
and me:
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Temperatures are rising earlier this year than last year. Maximum temperature reached mid-March or end-Feb levels at least once in several key wheat producing states last week.
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