LTValue
@myownreasoning
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Equity investor @ family office. https://t.co/aTUpwKVK9w
Australia
Joined December 2015
Seeing $BELFB as a ~40% 3yr IRR based on valuation of 11x EBITDA of $120m in FY26 which feels achievable given most of the growth is from the Enercon pro-forma and don't have to assume much growth in the base business. Currently trades on 8.2x that FY26 number while the larger listed peers are >11.5x. Feels like a decent risk-reward. Story is evolving with Farouq recently announced as CEO.
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How did this clown become the leader of our country 🇦🇺 …
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Australia is not a serious country
🚨 Australia’s Wake-Up Call: We’re Falling Behind on Every Front Economic Stagnation - GDP growth crawling at 1.1%– slowest since the 1990s recession [2][7]. - Inflation stuck at 3.2% [4][8], with RBA rates frozen at 4.35% [7], crushing household budgets. - Productivity collapse: Labour efficiency flatlined at 2019 levels [5][12], dragging competitiveness. Housing Nightmare - 76% of Australians* dissatisfied with housing – worse than most wealthy nations [9]. - Median house price: $815k (9x average income) [9], with a 106,300-home deficit by 2027 [6][10]. - Rents doubled since 2002 [9], while construction costs soar (+3.4% YoY) [10]. Education & Innovation Crisis - Top universities in freefall: Melbourne Uni drops to 39th globally [3][11], others follow [14]. - Research funding slashed by $2B since 2020 [3], risking a $48B international student collapse*[3][6]. - Brain drain alert: Graduates eyeing opportunities abroad as local innovation stalls. Global Embarrassment -OECD laggard: Housing dissatisfaction higher than Türkiye [9], productivity growth below OECD averages [12]. - Inflation fight failing: Core CPI still 3.9% [8], trailing U.S. and EU progress. Wake. Up. Australia. ✅ Scrap student caps, boost R&D, and slash construction red tape. ✅ Prioritize meritocracy – fund excellence, not mediocrity. ✅ Learn from agile economies (yes, even Uganda) before it’s too late. Complacency isn’t an option #AustraliaDecline #WakeUpAUS #MeritocracyNow [Sources: KPMG, Vanguard, THE, Gallup, RBA] Sources [1] When Aussie home prices will spike [2] Australia's economic growth set to recover in 2025 [3] Best universities in Australia 2025 - Times Higher Education (THE) [4] Australia Inflation Expectations - Trading Economics [5] Australia Productivity - Trading Economics [6] What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025 [7] Our economic outlook for Australia - Vanguard [8] Australia Inflation Rate - Trading Economics [9] Australians' Housing Crisis: Dreams Turn Into Nightmares [10] Navigating the 2025 Housing Market: Key Factors to Watch [11] Australia University Rankings 2025 - Study in Australia [12] [PDF] Information note—Labour productivity - Fair Work Commission [13] Australia GDP Growth Rate - Trading Economics [14] Top Universities in Australia 2024-2025 | IDP Vietnam [15] Overview | Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2024 | RBA [16] Australia Key Themes 2025: Inflation will be on voters' minds
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Having a look at $BELFB Seems like a reasonable ~30% margin of safety to $83/sh today looking at 10x FY25 Adj. EBITDA of ~$120m, which involves base business holding relatively constant and PF for acquisition of Enercon. Enercon deal seems to increase business quality through geographic, product, and customer diversification, in attractive A&D end market, with a higher gross and EBITDA margin mix. Further upside would be 1) continued operational improvement and 2) de-stocking ends so return to top-line growth in 2025. But, hard to underwrite these. Risk is macro deteriorates further, more de-stocking, and/or margin improvements aren't sustainable. Seems like market doesn't give much credit given the terrible operational history prior to 2021 (i.e. before new CFO Farouq came in and started implementing basic changes to improve profitability), which is why it remains somewhat inexpensive today even after very strong past 2yrs. No longer a cheap special situation but might be a good stock to own for 20-30% compounded return as business continues to improve... Welcome thoughts from anyone familiar
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@nyseSRCL Pricing power for their high performance nickel alloys. Key supplier to the parts manufacturers like HWM
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Going to ask this question in every management/IR meeting for the next 6 months
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@willis_cap L’Oreal also does a much better job using tech and data to manage their A&P spend in a dynamic/agile way (able to shift spend based on sources of demand), whereas $EL is a much more outdated/legacy media model - didn’t jump on TikTok, not using data properly, etc
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How the average 2024 retail investor feels after their PA (50% Tesla, 50% Fartcoin) outperforms the market
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@PythiaR Whole Jefferies A&D team will have some serious egg on their face now given how hard they were pumping it
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RT @muddywatersre: MW is short $FTAI bc we think FTAI misleads by shifting profits from Leasing to MRO, misrepresenting whole engine sales…
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@OperationATM Gut feel Noticed many similar issues they called out with lack of info IR guy is a massive knob which helps corroborate the short thesis
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On $FTAI short report news Not sure how material the effect will be on $WLFC but don’t really want to wait around and see. Likely for sentiment to be negative. I have sold for a gain and will wait on sidelines. Annoying bc of tax but feel it’s the right move. Traded >2.5x BV but information was much better, no aggressive guidance ramp like FTAI, and mostly position themselves as a leasing business with some small module swap activity. $AER thesis still fine
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