Ruto wins. The capacity of Kenyan institutions has outpaced the political culture. A shame that his opponent and backers within the state could not concede.
Kenyan politics will never be the same again. The youth-led protest movement that has swept the country has in the space of just two weeks also swept away assumptions that lasted 60 years. A thread 1/
Presidential candidate Waihiga Mwaure concedes defeat and, significantly, indicates his reading of the numbers suggests a victory for Deputy President William Ruto.
Very pleased to announce
@CrisisGroup
@mutigam
will succeed me as Africa Program Director & will work with
@PaulineBax1
@RinaldoD1
to take our work to even greater heights. Thanks to Africa Program colleagues for our wonderful years; looking forward to championing your good work.
Come and work with us:
@CrisisGroup
is hiring a Senior AU Adviser (to lead our coverage of the African Union) and a Senior Communications Officer. We are especially keen to attract candidates from the continent. Do spread the word! Links below 1/
President William Ruto signals he’s asked his predecessor Kenyatta to serve as his representative in peace talks on the conflicts in Ethiopia and the DRC. Will come as a big relief to diplomats who worried Nairobi would back out of the two initiatives.
Interesting that Kenyatta and Odinga, both of whom claim to have won the presidency, pointedly avoided the word President in their presser and instead referred to each other as 'Ndugu,' Kiswahili for brother.
Considering the scale of the war in Northern Ethiopia, really pathetic that the AU is taking such a casual approach and basically never consulted anyone on talks to find a way out of conflict.
Former Kenya's leader UHURU KENYATTA letter to the
@_AfricanUnion
commission chairperson
@AUC_MoussaFaki
on his skipping of peace talks in
#SouthAfrica
. He had been named by the AU a facilitator alongside Nigeria's Olusegun Obasanjo
Usually when there’s a coup, most people stay home. The fact thousands of Sudanese protesters have taken to the streets instead should signal to the generals that they’re taking a dangerous, reckless gamble as we highlight in latest
@CrisisGroup
statement
‘In the fullness of time I entertain no doubt that this nation will come to regard (electoral commission chair) Wafula Chebukati as one of Kenya’s outstanding heroes.’ Githu Muigai
The biggest winner of the Kenyan election is the Kenyan people. From a time when elections were a life and death affair, now they are routine. And the pressure from below has forced both institutions and politicians to perform better.
One of Africa’s largest elections unfolds Wednesday with 44 million Congolese registered to vote. With logistical problems mounting, however, many fear that vast numbers may not be able to cast their ballots. Some insights drawing on colleagues in Goma and in Kinshasa. 1/11
Delighted to announce that
@alanboswell
, host of The Horn Podcast and formerly S Sudan Senior Analyst will take over as
@CrisisGroup
's Horn of Africa Project Director and
@Meron_El
is our new East and Southern Africa Analyst.
After initially showing restraint, Kenya govt reacts to opposition swearing in by declaring Odinga opposition movement an "organised criminal group," a needless move that will dial up tensions
#NASAOathDay
There is a lot of bad news coming out of West Africa these days but this new
@CrisisGroup
paper by my colleague
@PaulineBax1
is a refreshing exception, examining Cote d’Ivoire’s success in stopping jihadist expansion. A thread 1/
Tensions between the DRC and Rwanda have reached their highest level for years with Kinshasa barring Rwandair flights and Rwanda threatening to intervene directly in Eastern DRC. 1/5
Their ringing message to Ruto and his administration is that govts have to earn legitimacy across the length of their term, not just in election season 7/
This logic goes back nearly a century, when British colonialists decreed that political parties could only be formed along ethnic lines, part of the divide-and-rule game 3/
Somalia is in the middle of its worst political crisis for years.
@CrisisGroup
's latest statement explores ways to restart dialogue to avert a spiral into violence
Ironically, one of the most eloquent assertions of this was by the young Yoweri Museveni. In Sowing the Mustard Seed he argued if the public mobilised along non-parochial lines such as teachers, farmers etc, rulers would have to be more accountable 5/
In this Q&A, my
@CrisisGroup
colleague
@Meron_El
makes the case that all sides need to exercise wisdom to harness this opportunity for root and branch reform in Kenya
Ethiopia's delicate transition, who will come out on top in Somalia's high-stakes election, Addis-Khartoum tensions and why we still regard Sudan as a bright spot in the region. Listen in to our predictions for 2021 with
@alanboswell
The numbers are staggering. Kenya now spends about half of its revenue on debt servicing, squeezing out other obligations. Credit especially to economist
@DavidNdii
who warned that a crash was coming -- and was unfortunately ignored
🎧What issues in the Horn of Africa region are important to highlight in the year ahead?
“Within the next decade, one or two govts within the continent might collapse simply because they have amassed so much debt”,
@mutigam
explains to
@alanboswell
⇊
A second assumption was that the young don't care. They are busy on social media engaged in trivial pursuits. Well, they have shown they care but can also force through change 8/
One can only imagine what it must be like being a civilian in Mekelle, caught between two parties trying to resolve a political dispute using artillery and bombs.
@CrisisGroup
urges Addis Ababa to halt its offensive to allow civilians to leave the city
A humanitarian catastrophe could unfold in Mekelle, capital of
#Ethiopia
’s Tigray region. Entering a heavily populated city would exact an enormous, intolerable toll on civilians & badly damage Ethiopia’s international repute.
Our statement👇
New
@crisisgroup
statement calls for a last-minute deal to avert a bloody clash in Nairobi, urges Kenyatta to accept audit of election system and asks Odinga to cancel event and champion structural reforms
Many have argued that the only way to hold political elites accountable was to move to more "horizontal" politics that meant elites couldn't easily divide voters and act with impunity 4/
Strong African Union statement on the rising tensions between Rwanda and the DRC. Rebels Kinshasa claims Rwanda backs have recently made dramatic gains in Eastern DRC. A thread 1/10
Yet this is also a delicate moment with outside forces increasingly infiltrating the protests and introducing a level of violence that has caused public anxiety 9/
Kenya must be the only country on earth where relations between the president and deputy president are so frosty that when they meet, it's treated as breaking news
My early take: ‘The conflict will cause reputational damage to Russia. Many on the African continent cheered Moscow’s vocal opposition to American-led wars in Iraq and Libya and now Russia will come across as the aggressor in a war of choice against a less powerful neighbor.’
African citizens remained stranded across Ukraine on Friday, even as their governments called for a cease-fire and urged Russia to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. "We are really terrified," a Somali student on a bus from Kyiv to Lviv told me.
Remarkable development as Kenya's President Ruto fires all his cabinet ministers following a recent wave of protests. For backround, see this
@CrisisGroup
explainer
Extraordinary development. Sudan's military council ruler, Lt Gen Ibn Auf, forced to step down amid escalating wave of protests. Another General, Abdel-Fatah al-Burhan, to take his place (1)
More than 10 years ago,
@RAbdiAnalyst
, one of the leading experts on the regional jihadist scene, warned that a military-only strategy against Al Shabaab would fail. He was right. Worth catching his thoughts on what the future holds with
@alanboswell
here:
🎧 In a new episode of The Horn’s mini-series exploring jihadism along the Swahili coast,
@alanboswell
and
@RAbdiAnalyst
discuss the connections and competition among jihadist groups in the region and much more.
Tune in 👉
Expansive new
@CrisisGroup
report examines the success of Sudan's protest movement, which captured the imagination across the region with a brave, determined campaign against one of the region's most entrenched rulers 1/1
Bashir is behind bars, a new PM is set to take office and a teacher that drives a taxi at night is the face of the opposition. Exciting times in Sudan
@CrisisGroup
's latest statement outlines the dangers ahead and examines ways to keep the generals at bay
Short thread on recent
@CrisisGroup
podcasts on Sudan's devastating war. Here, a moving account by
@ReemWrites
on the grave toll the war is taking on civilians as well as its unimaginable cultural and economic cost. 1/
In this
@CrisisGroup
podcast I tell
@alanboswell
that despite the typically drawn out conclusion, Kenya’s closely fought election will help consolidate its democracy and holds lessons for the region
Amid a surge in crime, banditry and jihadist violence, more W African countries are turning to vigilantes to offer local security. This new big
@CrisisGroup
explores this complex phenomenon in Nigeria
@NnamdiObasi
Which way forward for Ethiopia and the region? I speak to
@EroComfort
and
@atwoodr
on the complex challenges the Horn's most important country faces amid the grinding war in Tigray
With Niger’s generals digging in and threatening to charge the ousted president with treason, worth reading this quick
@CrisisGroup
explainer on the factors that prompted the coup - and what might come next
The
#Ethiopian
capital Addis Ababa is preparing to host African heads of state for their 36th summit. Ahead of the event,
@CrisisGroup
just published its annual eight priorities for the
@_AfricanUnion
1/
The Nile, Africa's longest river, is the subject of a bitter dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan.
@CrisisGroup
's new report explores options to defuse tensions as Ethiopia races to complete a giant dam across the Blue Nile
Seven African leaders were toppled by their militaries in the last three years.
In this
@ForeignAffairs
essay with
@mutigam
, we outline the deeper context in which these coups are emerging and why they have stirred so much anxiety.
Thread 1/11
.
My reflections on the path to war in Sudan, the plight of civilians caught in the middle of a vicious power struggle between rival forces and options to end the brutal fighting
via
@crisisgroup
'They couldn't agree who the dominant partner was': Wise deep dive by
@MikeWoldemariam
into the bitter rivalry between the Eritrean and Tigray elite that has marked multiple bloody conflicts in this corner of the Horn of Africa
@alanboswell
I see you've changed your headline online but you should consider pulling down the story. We all benefit from good journalism but stories like these undermine faith in the media and also fundamentally erode your credibility. 6/6
Despite 20 years of the "war on terror" there are more jihadis in Africa today than ever before. What went wrong? Great to join
@mary_harper
and
@MikeWoldemariam
in last episode of
@alanboswell
's mini series
Went for a run in Nairobi's Arboretum forest in solidarity with my friend Michael Kovrig, unjustly detained in China 2 years ago today. He told me he loved the time he spent in East Africa. Hope he'll be free to travel the world again soon
#FreeMichaelKovrig
President Kenyatta should be impeached for defying court orders and trying to "overthrow the constitution" former Chief Justice
@WMutunga
tells
@alanboswell
in this no-holds barred interview (A thread with some background) 1
Next week, African leaders will meet in Addis Ababa for the annual
@_AfricanUnion
summit
#AUSummit
.
With millions on the continent enduring armed conflict, we
@CrisisGroup
highlight eight priorities for the
#AU
to improve matters.
🧵: 1/8
New
@crisisgroup
briefing examines
#Somaliland
’s parliamentary & local elections, following conclusion with the selection of the lower house speaker last week.
A surprising win for opposition & quick acceptance by the government highlights successful nature of the process.
Excellent choice. Mahama showed in 2017 that an incumbent can lose an election and accept defeat with grace, something that happens all too rarely on the continent
EXCLUSIVE: The
@_AfricanUnion
is to appoint former Ghana president John Mahama as a special envoy to
#Somalia
according to 2 people familiar with the appointment. The envoy is to lead mediation efforts to end the electoral crisis and pave the way for elections immediately.
For much of the world, 9/11 lies in the past. For Africa, the legacy of the "war on terror" looms large from the Sahel to the Lake Chad Basin and the Horn. In this new commentary,
@EroComfort
and I explore options to escape 9/11's long shadow
Oil money holds S Sudan’s elites together. Those funds have suddenly dried up due to the war in Sudan, with potentially dire consequences for stability in the south. New
@CrisisGroup
statement here.
Here,
@CrisisGroup
warns that
#SouthSudan
is staring over the edge as the
#Sudan
war blocks most of its oil exports. Hyperinflation, famine, and political unrest could follow in a country already wracked with violence and hunger.
How did Sudan descend into an all-out war between two armies fighting in major urban centres with millions of civilians in the crossfire?
@CrisisGroup
's
@alanboswell
and
@wmshewit
discuss the background and options to end the fighting with
@atwoodr
Remarkably draconian step as Kenya govt indefinitely bans news broadcasts on three private TV stations. Harshest measure since the authoritarian Moi administration, which many Kenyans under 20 don't remember. Issue will end up in courts and offer a test of judicial independence
Sudan’s generals have to take big decisions today. Hopefully, they realize that deploying violence will unleash forces that will consume and ultimately doom them.
🎧 “It is essential that the military exercises restraint and does not crackdown on protesters.”
On our podcast Hold Your Fire!
@atwoodr
stresses that non-violence must be encouraged at all cost ahead of today’s mass protests against the coup in
#Sudan
.
I cannot resist stealing
@mutigam
's (one of the smartest minds on conflict trends in the Horn) 'the battle over 3 Ds' that will drive conflict in the Horn for the next decades - Democracy, Demography and Decentralisation.
Good piece with this key line: ‘In many multilateral settings today, non-Western states often opt to negotiate as a team…This coordination enhances the affinity among countries frustrated with an international order that too often works against their interests.’
In the last few days, Rwanda fired missiles at a DRC warplane, bringing tensions in the Great Lakes to the highest level since the 2000s. In this Q&A,
@CrisisGroup
outlines steps toward de-escalation 1/
"Following foreign military intervention in Mozambique, many of these Kenyan and Tanzanian fighters are retreating home." Explainer here on dynamics behind recent attacks in Uganda and why the alert level is so high now in the rest of the region.
#Sudan
's El-Fasher and
#Gaza
's Rafah: In both, starvation has been used as a weapon of war. In both, civilians wait in fear as men in arms prepare to invade. This special
@CrisisGroup
podcast assesses the entirely avoidable consequences if the worst scenario unfolds
Latest
@CrisisGroup
statement: ‘The army’s losses and the RSF’s need for a negotiated deal mean mediators should move with all haste.. to make progress on ending the war in Sudan. Despite the dire situation, now is not the time for fatalism or fatigue’
Worth catching this rich discussion on Russia in Africa. The upshot: Russia is a "virtual great power" with more breadth than depth on the continent -- but it will seek to deepen engagement as ties with the West worsen.
For years, Russia worked to rebuild influence across Africa. Now what? Does Russia have an Africa strategy, or just thrives on opportunism? And, what power plays might we expect from Moscow now?
My podcast discussion w/
@SamRamani2
. (Good to be back!)
'You will not replace a thief with another thief' is the protesters' latest slogan. A truly impressive, peaceful protest movement that will not easily be thwarted (4)
Jihadists have Coastal West Africa in their sights, exploiting the political discontent, radicalism and crisis of pastoralism that aided their rise in the Sahel. Great exploration of the stakes by
@CrisisGroup
's
@PaulineBax1
and
@IbrahimYahayaIb
Fascinating survey of Turkey's view of the world. In Somalia, Ankara is now an almost indispensable partner and is playing a much longer game than the more transactional Gulf actors.
In the past few months, Turkey has flexed its muscles in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean and now Nagorno-Karabakh.
Who better than
@nigargoksel
to help make sense of it?
Listen to the latest episode of
@NazModirzadeh
's and my podcast
New
@CrisisGroup
paper on ways to defuse the dangerous situation in N Darfur, where a million civilians are trapped and will suffer even more misery if full-scale fighting erupts in the city
Here,
@CrisisGroup
details the hellish ongoing showdown over El Fasher in
#Sudan
's North Darfur.
We call for more concerted efforts to de-escalate the situation, mediate safe passage for trapped civilians, and get aid to starving Darfuris.
Bumper week of
@CrisisGroup
publications over the past week, starring this deep dive into South Sudan's political crisis that could be a paper about most of the Horn of Africa. 1/5
Important analysis of Sudan’s war, ‘disastrous in its human toll’ but also tragically unfolding without receiving much attention in a country that’s central to HoA and Red Sea security by
@alanboswell
@wmshewit
and
@atwoodr
Sudan stands at the edge of civil war unless urgent steps are taken to rein in the military council and assorted militias that carried out a horrific massacre of civilians, says
@CrisisGroup
Ethiopia’s surprise port access MOU with Somaliland dominated my latest
@CrisisGroup
intvw with
@atwoodr
. We also discussed prospects for resolution in Sudan, Kenya’s regional role and evolving Red Sea dynamics.
Credit to Odinga for choosing to challenge the results in the courts rather than on the streets and especially to Kenyans for reacting so calmly after the high-pitched election drama. Multiple positives from this election.
Ruto (like other Kenyan politicians is a liar that tells the truth by accident) and Odinga (a progressive and patriot that goes to bed with dictatorships). Listen in! /6