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26 • Social Investor • Minority Aritzia LP Owner • Music Rights • Rivian • Research •
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$RIVN This is the best 2 minutes of Rivian's earnings call.
Yes, Rivian is losing money on every vehicle delivered but they are operating on contracts that were made years ago.
Suppliers have recognized their legitimacy and WANT to be involved for R2. New contracts kick in Q2.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Thought this Aritzia sell off could have been even worse given the report. Still very long; but don't see any sentiment change until at least Q3 report.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO WOW — Aritzia blows out analyst expectations amid recession concerns, posting Q2 Revenue of 525 Million. This is the largest Quartlerly Revenue figure Artizia has ever reported.
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia launched their Wilfred summer collection 2 days ago.
$148 Pants, $188 dress almost fully sold through. They know exactly what their customer is looking for.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO My notes from Investor Day. Overall, Aritzia is positioned extremely well as it enters the next stages of growth.
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$ATZ.TO First look at the Aritzia Flagship store going up in Chicago. 46K Sqft on Magnificent Mile. Coming soon.
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$ATZ.TO The mood of this Aritzia earnings call is completely different than the last 2 Quarters. Lots of positivity and confidence from management.
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$TTCF Tattooed Chef was once a popular stock pick among YouTubers. Unfortunately, no one read the income statement.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia is planning another US store. This time at Fashion Mall in Indianapolis.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia reports 4Q earnings tomorrow, few notes.
- New store openings during the Q (Yorkdale, San Antonio, Upper Canada)
- Should see the bulk of super puff sales here
- Lapping Q4 expedited freight
- Inventory 508 Million as of last report
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$ATZ.TO $ATZ Strong report from Aritzia on first look.
- Rev of 653M
- e-Com sales growth is back
- Inventory down another 20%
- Raised full year guidance
More after the conference call.
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia seems to be working through the high inventory. Two of their best sellers — Mega Sweatpants currently only 2 of 28 colours available in a medium, rest on backorder or sold out. Original Super Puff has 27 of 42 colours sold out in a medium.
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia generated very similar sales numbers in Canada compared to $LULU. On track for about 1.19B compared to Lululemon's 1.16B in 2022.
However, USA sales are on pace for about 1/5th of Lulu's ; 1.2B vs 5.65B.
But Aritzia has 49 stores in the USA, Lululemon has 451.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Hearing from a friend Aritzia will be carrying some New Era caps in store (Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers etc.)
Aritzia has the target market a lot of brands are in search of. Select strategic partnerships will bode well for them. New Balance, Adidas, etc.
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$ATZ.TO $ATZ New store pipeline
- Philadelphia
- Chicago (Flagship @ Magnificent Mile)
- Indiana
- San Diego (2nd store Fashion Valley)
- Boca Raton
- Tampa
- NY (Flagship @ 5th Ave)
- Corte Madera
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$ATZ.TO $ATZ First look at these Aritzia numbers, those e-commerce sales are popping off the page. Accounting for 43% of sales and growing at over 50%
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$ATZ.TO A couple new US openings I found for Aritzia. Jacksonville, FL and Burlington, MA.
2024 will be the most aggressive year in terms of US openings, with most coming in the back half of the year.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Tough open for Aritzia. Lots of issues that they need to right on the margin side of things.
I cut them a little slack as a lot of the issues are related to the unprecedented growth. Playing the long term game here!
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$ATZ.TO Pamela Anderson for Aritzia Fall collection. Feedback looks good.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia's campaign with Emma Chamberlain is now live. Here is a 🧵on why it's such a genius marketing strategy.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia's Google trends have really picked up in 3Q. 2H has historically been strong for them. In Q3 they opened their first store in North Carolina and expanded their Boston location.
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia announces another NCIB to buy back shares. The last NCIB Artizia did spanned over 1 year, amounting to 1.7 Million shares for a cash consideration of 69.2 Million.
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$ATZ.TO Board member Aldo Bensadoun (Founder of Aldo Shoes) with some insider activity on Friday.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Awesome feature on Aritzia's website you can search by name and view your (wife, girlfriend, daughters) saved items and buy them exactly what they want. We are heading into the busiest week of the year for Aritzia. My Q3 revenue projection is 630 Million.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia reports Q4 earnings tomorrow. I believe we will see strong top line (>680M).
I'm not expecting anything crazy from a profitability standpoint, my numbers are largely in line with analysts EPS projections.
Here are some rough numbers👇
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO The guys over at
@cdn_investing
covered Aritzia in their latest episode. Definitely worth a listen!
New episode is live! Available on your podcast player and the podcast website.
Is Aritzia Canada’s Next Fashion Growth Stock? -
via
@podcastpage
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO NEW STORE ALERT. Aritzia will be opening a third location in Florida. Boca Raton is a great location and should cover tons of their target clientele in Del Rey, Pompano, etc.
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$ATZ.TO Confirmed Aritzia will be opening in Tampa next year.
A year ago today they had 0 stores in Florida.
Come 2023 they will have 4 (Miami, Orlando, Boca Raton, Tampa).
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@LiebermanAustin
So basically your investment thesis hinges on a pivot away from the one business segment $META has been adamant about doubling down on, and increasing spend in?
That call option is far from free, and should be assessed with a hefty risk premium.
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$ATZ.TO If SEDI is reading correctly, it looks like Brian Hill (Aritzia Founder) picked up another 1M worth in shares yesterday.
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$ATZ.TO Increased my Aritzia position this morning. More opportunities may present themselves. No catalysts until Q4 earnings in May.
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$ATZ.TO Some commentary on Q3 earnings.
If Aritzia can grow retail rev by 70% and E-Com rev by 30% which is consistent with the past few Q's they will report a Q3 rev figure of >700 Million.
The key will be gross profit / SG&A to beat on EPS which analysts have at 0.60.
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@StockMarketNerd
Turning into a FCF beast. Valuation seems insane until you dig deeper. High growth mixed with profitability, and cost discipline. Guide still 23-29% on constant currency basis. Love the long term story!
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO "The early feedback we received from management on the Spring collection has been constructive".
Michael Glen from Raymond James after his upgrade of the stock.
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia has launched a rebrand of its sweatsuit line; from "TNA" to "Aritzia".
Some mixed reactions from long time customers.
However, I think this will better align with their US strategy. An identifiable brand name aligns them more with $LULU, Alo, SKIMS etc.
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$ATZ.TO Market is punishing Aritzia for high inventory levels. I pointed to this being a positive catalyst months ago. Can only treat it as an opportunity over the longterm as they prove they can sell through it in the next Q's.
$ATZ $ATZ.TO A major catalyst for Aritzia in Q3/Q4 will be their inventory. Executive Chair Brian Hill said "they are doubling down on proven sellers" and that they were "grossly" under-inventoried last year and left a lot of sales on the table.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Last few days of Aritzia's fiscal quarter. Search data for the Q has been consistently higher than the year over year comp.
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@RadnorCapital
Thanks for sharing. They are absolutely dominating the music industry.
I work with some artists and we have their catalogue opted into Discovery Mode which is a Marketplace offering. ~30% commission to $SPOT for increased algorithmic exposure.
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$ATZ.TO The current number one show on Netflix "The Watcher" is filled with pieces from Aritzia.
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia still holding strong after earnings, up another 4%. Worth nothing that Q4 earnings are not until May due to fiscal year end.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia has just posted on Instagram about a partnership with Emma Chamberlain. Looks like it will be some sort of campaign for Sunday's Best. For my older followers, Emma's reach to the 16-25 demographic is out of this world. Massive news!
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia search data tracking meaningfully higher in the US versus the previous 4th quarter.
Fiscal Q ends Feb 28th.
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@Jamie_Lane
I operate an AirBnb and can tell you the long term stay category is on fire. I have a guest in there just paying monthly rather than signing a traditional lease. He pays a hefty premium but values the flexibility of not being locked in to a lease.
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia is going to report Q2 earnings earlier than they have historically reported. Moving the results up about 2 weeks to September 28th.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO 1) Aritzia earnings after the bell. I'm projecting revenue of 476M for Q1.
A rev beat won't be enough though. All eyes on inventory levels, gross profit, SG&A. I still think EPS will come in higher than analyst range of 0.7-0.11.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Artizia sets another quarterly revenue record of 624.6 Million in the third quarter.
37.8% year over year growth.
Revenue 624.6 Million, Adjusted EPS of 0.67, Adjusted EBIDTA 119.6 Million. Beating analysts expectations on all 3 metrics!
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia Investor Day tomorrow. Super excited!
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO NEW STORE ALERT — Aritzia is opening next summer in Southlake, Texas. Only 28 miles away from their Dallas store. Expect to see more openings in smaller cities as these major city stores overflow with traffic ; Miami, Houston, Nashville etc.
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$ATZ.TO Tracking for a 10 month pay back period at the new boutique in Charlotte, North Carolina.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Artizia is re-positioning their Yorkdale Mall store, and are aiming to open by holiday season. They are nearly doubling the square footage, and are building a large wrap-around video screen at the exterior of the boutique. EPIC!
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@arny_trezzi
- Declining deliveries
- Elon
- Increased competition
- Interest Rates
- FSD / Robotics being unpriced because they are years away
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$RIVN This clip from Rivian's latest earnings call makes so much more sense now.
Here are the details of R2 production moving to the Normal, IL plant and how it relates to the April shutdown + profitability of R1👇🏼
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@ecommerceshares
$ABNB Generated 1.2 Billion in Net Income on 2.9 Billion of revenue.
$META Generated 4.39 Billion in Net Income on 27.71 Billion of revenue.
Zuck could learn a thing or two about cost discipline from Chesky!
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia has added an activewear tab, and rolled out a campaign for activewear. Girls have been swapping out $LULU's Align leggings for the TNA Butter leggings. Aritzia taking a larger market share in the activewear category is a big development to keep an eye on.
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$RIVN Rivian CEO on Mad Money just reaffirmed that Amazon does not take deliveries of EDV's from November through Holiday season.
Says he thinks "this was lost" by many who made assumptions about the recent delivery/production numbers.
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$ATZ $LULU This is the best visual representation of how early we are in Artizia's penetration into the US market. Lululemon is about 1.75x the popularity of Aritzia in Canada, but 7x in USA.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia surges past $47 for the first time since April. Now up 43% since the low of June 17th. Q3 Earnings expected in early October.
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@Jason
@RemindMe_OfThis
Spotify. Rarely anyone is looking here. Margins will increase as revenue mix shifts more towards podcasts, artist marketplace — more artists going independent, taking share of audio ads from radio. Very sticky product, strong user base, solid management.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Just unbelievable that in such a tough macroeconomic environment Aritzia still has stores slated for opening in Philadelphia, San Antonio, Palo Alto and two flagship stores coming to NY and Chicago. Speaks to the strength of their customer base.
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$ATZ.TO First look at the Yorkdale mall Aritzia opening on the 24th. 19,000 sq ft with a massive video wall around the exterior. EPIC!
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia is hiring for a new store at the sought after Shops at La Cantera which means a new store is coming to San Antonio, TX. This would mark their 4th store in Texas. US footprint expanding rapidly!
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$ATZ.TO $ATZ I'm expecting rev around 630M. Based on new store openings I'm estimating 430M in retail. If historical % of net rev holds up, that would put us at 205M in eCom rev for a total of 634M.
Not fully confident in e-Com sales thus bringing me down to that 630 mark.
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$ATZ.TO All of the Fintwit Aritzia shareholders will be wearing these soon. I have to admit the Texas one is pretty sweet.
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$ATZ Going to lunch and drinks for the Canada game but first ...
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$BBWI Solid report and successful trade idea. Just want to point out my revenue estimate was bang on. Cheers!
Added some $BBWI ahead of todays earnings. Down 5% on the back of $TGT earnings. Believe guidance is sand bagged, like the valuation.
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia will be opening up in Boca Raton very soon. This will be their 4th store in Florida. Should be a great location for them.
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$ATZ $ANF $ATZ.TO Abercrombie is a legitimate competitor for Aritzia in the US. Looking at Google search data it appears they're outperforming.
However, when comparing by city, it shows Aritzia is gaining major traction within wealthy towns despite Abercrombies broader appeal.
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$LULU $ATZ Lululemon may take Aritzia down with it tomorrow. Actually hoping for this scenario as I position myself for Aritzia's Q3 earnings in January.
Still very long with equity, but hoping to buy calls if catalysts (LULU report, CPI, Fed Meeting) beat the stock down.
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@koestreicher34
You guys can't be serious. You fumble the ball on the 1 yard line and are blaming the refs?
Ravens are showing they are undisciplined with the silly penalties.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Above $43 and up almost 20% over the past month
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO CEO Jennifer Wong on the earnings call "Polo Park opening was the highest sales volume ever at Aritzia".
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This is a great sign for $ATZ.TO
They have already hit the major TX markets; Dallas, Houston, Austin.
Store demand becomes so high they have to open in secondary markets; Southlake, Plano etc.
This exact strategy can be seen in Canada where there are 30+ stores in the GTA.
Aritzia $ATZ.TO planning to open a new store in Plano, Texas this Summer
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$ATZ.TO Aritzia update.
Another NEW STORE is opening in Corte Madera, California. This marks their 5th store in the Bay Area.
They just opened their 4th Texas store in The Shops at La Cantera (San Antonio).
Q3 Earnings should be Jan 12th, will be posting estimates soon.
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$ATZ.TO The Super Puff brand has been explosive this season.
A friend asked me to help him pick a colour to buy his girlfriend for Christmas. Hardly any desirable colours in her size left. Some completely sold out, others waiting on a re-stock in Jan.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia announced they will report 4th quarter earnings on May 2nd. Full year results + 2024 guide.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO As of today there are still no Aritzia locations in Arizona, Indiana, North/South Carolina, Utah, Wisconsin, Kansas, Louisiana and Alabama. There are 54 $LULU stores in those states ....
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$ATZ.TO 7-8% up on the week. I didn't think we would move much higher until May Q4 earnings.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia already has so many things brewing for Q3.
August 25th - Palo Alto Store Opens
September 1st - Emma Chamberlain campaign
October 1st - Polo Park Winnipeg Opens
October 6th - Markville Reposition Opens
Nov (TBD) - Clientele Sale
Nov 25th - Black Friday
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$ATZ.TO New / desirable colours seem to sell out quick. These just launched 2 days ago.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO A rough model on how Aritzia can reach 1 Billion $ in Quarterly Revenue. Note — I made many assumptions in regards to Revenue per store, I believe the Flagships can generate much more, this is just rough math. However, the framework is clearly set.
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$ATZ.TO However, for me I'm still very confident in continued growth and the long term story. Retail sales are trending well, pipeline of great stores to be opened, and Aritzia's overall brand strength are some of the factors that keep me confident in the future.
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@BradoCapital
$MTN (Vail Resorts) is creating a monopoly on Skiing. Buying up all resorts in North America, now Europe. Customers hate the company yet keep lining up every year for their passes. Usually a good sign of a moat. 9B market cap.
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$ATZ The Aritzia bull case is difficult to understand if you have not grasped the psyche of their customer base. Having a deep level understanding of the draw Aritzia has on customers, makes it so much easier to envision the companies trajectory.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO $ATZAF 2/ New store openings are not just limited to big cities but the surrounding suburbs, this is a strategy Aritzia has used in Canada to dominate. I expect a similar thing to happen in Michigan, Florida -- and continue in Illinois, California etc.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Message from my friend today. Days like this are not uncommon for style advisors (sales associates)
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$ATZ.TO $ATZ One positive from Aritzia's 4Q ER was the spike in e-com sales.
Q1 - 120M 29% of sales
Q2 - 173M 33% of sales
Q3 - 201M 32% of sales
Q4 - 274M 43% of sales
Possibly starting to see the ripple effect of cross channel sales from new store openings.
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$ATZ.TO My estimates which I spent hours on were very close. Real numbers below.
Revenue - 625 Million
Gross Profit - 270 Million
SG&A - 163 Million
Income From Operations - 95.3 Million
Income Tax Expense - 27.5 Million
Adjusted Net Income - 70.7 Million
Adjusted EPS - 0.67
$ATZ $ATZ.TO My estimates for Aritzia Q3 Earnings coming after the bell today.
Revenue - 643 Million
Adjusted EPS - 0.68
Detailed breakdown below.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Keep an eye on these Aritzia belt bags. This is a dupe of one of Lululemon's most successful items that is constantly sold out. We will see if Aritzia can generate similar success with their version.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO My final estimate for revenue is 415 Million. Looking forward to seeing the company continue to execute, and demonstrate the strength of their brand to investors.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO RBC has confirmed Aritzia's Investor Day is scheduled for October 27th.
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$ATZ $ATZ.TO Aritzia's latest viral product is the divinity romper which has catapulted itself to viral status via TikTok.
Body-hugging, sweat-wicking — the Divinity Romper has its own hashtag on TikTok for many reasons.
@dajanarads
understands. Hit the link to shop this internet favourite:
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