Using expected outcomes to simulate previous MLB games, inspired by
@MoneyPuckdotcom
. Code can be found in GitHub (link below). Created by
@DerekGrifka
The purpose of this account is to analyze how game outcomes can change, depending on when a hit occurred. For example, if a team hit well, but struggled to string together hits. We're essentially determining a team's "luck" factor by how their hits were dispersed in a game
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team.
#Guardians
so far the luckiest and
#Braves
the unluckiest
Using batted balls and walks, the
#Braves
have had an average win probability of 61%, while the
#Nationals
have an average of 41%. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 69% of the time. Actual team record within the bars.
This is the luckiest win of the year! The Mets hit all 11 of the hardest hit balls in this game. The Marlins win this game ~1% of the time, and looks like this game fell into that 1%
The
#WhiteSox
have lost 21 straight games! How hard have they hit the ball vs every other teams' last 21 games? If we remove batted balls with a Launch Angle below 0° (i.e. blatant ground balls), then only the
#Guardians
hit fewer hard hit balls!
Using batted balls and walks, the
#Braves
have had an average win probability of 61%, while the
#White
Sox have an average of 41%. Actual team record within the bars.
FYI the model is trained on batted ball data at each stadium, so I can’t provide a recap for the Tigers / Yankees game at Journey Bank Ballpark. Sorry :/
7 of the 8 hardest hit balls were from Astros players. With 5 walks/hbp in tow, it’s surprising the
#Astros
only scored 2 runs, but bein 2-14 with RISP will do it
I'm working on adding stolen bases, caught stealing, and errors to the model. I accidentally tweeted a sample that had a 100% probability (since I only ran 1 sim as a test), so please ignore that😀
Using batted balls and walks, the
#Braves
have had an average win probability of 61%, while the
#Marlins
have an average of 44%. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 68% of the time. Actual team record within the bars.
Here's how teams' luck has trended this year.
#Guardians
have been the luckiest since April, while the
#Braves
and
#Athletics
fighting for unluckiest.
If your team doesn't start at 0, then that means their first game of the season was lucky/unlucky
The
#Braves
hit 6 balls over 100 mph with only 1 hit to show (albeit a HR). Couple that with 4 more walks than the
#Cardinals
, ATL likely should’ve come away with this
Using batted balls and walks, the
#Braves
have had an average win probability of 62%, while the
#White
Sox have an average of 42%. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 68% of the time. Actual team record within the bars.
Wanted to point out a recent update: In order for the winning team to be considered a “luck merchant”, the losing team must have a win probability of >50%
Thanks
@TJStats
for the idea.
@YATitTat
The Guardians are better at things that my model doesn’t account for (speed, defense, etc), but they’re just outplaying what batted balls / walks alone would suggest
According to my model, these are the luckiest hits this season:
#1
Brandon Crawford: 68.7 / 77
#2
Marcus Semien: 84.8 / 72
#3
Jarren Duran: 84.6 / 68
#4
Jeff McNeil: 83.6 / 68
#5
Freddy Fermin: 89.2 / 67
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