MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
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Using expected outcomes to simulate previous MLB games, inspired by @MoneyPuckdotcom . Code can be found in GitHub (link below). Created by @DerekGrifka
Joined June 2024
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The purpose of this account is to analyze how game outcomes can change, depending on when a hit occurred. For example, if a team hit well, but struggled to string together hits. We're essentially determining a team's "luck" factor by how their hits were dispersed in a game
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--------- ALERT ---------
Guardians are luck merchants!
Guardians at Yankees (08/20/2024)
Actual score: Guardians 9, Yankees 5
Deserve-to-win: Guardians 16%, Yankees 77%, Tie 7%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimGuardians
#MLBSimYankees
#Baseball
#Guardians
#Yankees
67
25
214
--------- ALERT ---------
Guardians are luck merchants!
Cubs at Guardians (08/14/2024)
Actual score: Cubs 1, Guardians 6
Deserve-to-win: Cubs 47%, Guardians 36%, Tie 17%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimCubs
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Cubs
#Guardians
47
14
191
--------- ALERT ---------
Guardians are luck merchants!
Cubs at Guardians (08/12/2024)
Actual score: Cubs 8, Guardians 9
Deserve-to-win: Cubs 72%, Guardians 20%, Tie 8%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimCubs
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Cubs
#Guardians
20
14
150
--------- ALERT ---------
Guardians are luck merchants!
Guardians at Twins (08/11/2024)
Actual score: Guardians 5, Twins 3
Deserve-to-win: Guardians 17%, Twins 74%, Tie 9%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimGuardians
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#Guardians
#Twins
38
17
149
--------- ALERT ---------
Twins are luck merchants!
Twins at Rangers (08/16/2024)
Actual score: Twins 4, Rangers 3
Deserve-to-win: Twins 30%, Rangers 60%, Tie 10%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimTwins
#MLBSimRangers
#Baseball
#Twins
#Rangers
27
6
101
Should I run a deserve-to-win for the 2016 WS Game 7
12
2
95
--------- ALERT ---------
Padres are luck merchants!
Twins at Padres (08/19/2024)
Actual score: Twins 3, Padres 5
Deserve-to-win: Twins 73%, Padres 17%, Tie 10%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimTwins
#MLBSimPadres
#Baseball
#Twins
#Padres
4
11
94
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team.
#Guardians
so far the luckiest and
#Braves
the unluckiest
11
11
90
--------- ALERT ---------
Guardians are luck merchants!
Pirates at Guardians (08/30/2024)
Actual score: Pirates 8, Guardians 10
Deserve-to-win: Pirates 57%, Guardians 34%, Tie 9%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimPirates
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Pirates
#Guardians
19
2
81
This is STRICTLY a fun exercise that should not be taken out of context. But....lol
Cubs at Guardians (11/02/2016) - WS GM 7 -
Actual score: Cubs 8, Guardians 7
Deserve-to-win: Cubs 73%, Guardians 18%, Tie 9%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimCubs
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Cubs
#Guardians
Should I run a deserve-to-win for the 2016 WS Game 7
12
2
95
11
5
79
Scatterplot of lucky vs unlucky games for each team
2
19
70
--------- ALERT ---------
Brewers are luck merchants!
Brewers at Twins (07/20/2024)
Actual score: Brewers 8, Twins 4
Deserve-to-win: Brewers 27%, Twins 62%, Tie 11%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimBrewers
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#Brewers
#Twins
2
10
66
--------- ALERT ---------
Guardians are luck merchants!
Padres at Guardians (07/19/2024)
Actual score: Padres 0, Guardians 7
Deserve-to-win: Padres 58%, Guardians 30%, Tie 12%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimPadres
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Padres
#Guardians
12
2
59
Obviously a controversial post, but the Guardians had 0 barrels and only 3 batted balls with an xBA over .500
8
2
55
Using batted balls and walks, the
#Braves
have had an average win probability of 61%, while the
#Nationals
have an average of 41%. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 69% of the time. Actual team record within the bars.
1
8
55
--------- ALERT ---------
Padres are luck merchants!
Twins at Padres (08/20/2024)
Actual score: Twins 5, Padres 7
Deserve-to-win: Twins 44%, Padres 42%, Tie 14%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimTwins
#MLBSimPadres
#Baseball
#Twins
#Padres
2
5
46
--------- ALERT ---------
Guardians are luck merchants!
Guardians at Phillies (07/26/2024)
Actual score: Guardians 3, Phillies 1
Deserve-to-win: Guardians 25%, Phillies 60%, Tie 15%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimGuardians
#MLBSimPhillies
#Baseball
#Guardians
#Phillies
10
9
45
--------- ALERT ---------
Twins are luck merchants!
Blue Jays at Twins (09/01/2024)
Actual score: Blue Jays 3, Twins 4
Deserve-to-win: Blue Jays 60%, Twins 30%, Tie 10%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimBlueJays
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#BlueJays
#Twins
20
7
73
Royals at Guardians (08/28/2024)
Actual score: Royals 5, Guardians 7
Deserve-to-win: Royals 24%, Guardians 66%, Tie 10%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimRoyals
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Royals
#Guardians
11
2
44
Guardians at Twins (08/09/2024)
Actual score: Guardians 3, Twins 6
Deserve-to-win: Guardians 8%, Twins 88%, Tie 4%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimGuardians
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#Guardians
#Twins
1
2
42
--------- ALERT ---------
Orioles are luck merchants!
Orioles at Guardians (08/04/2024)
Actual score: Orioles 9, Guardians 5
Deserve-to-win: Orioles 33%, Guardians 52%, Tie 15%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimOrioles
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Orioles
#Guardians
4
5
41
--------- ALERT ---------
Cubs are luck merchants!
Cubs at Pirates (08/26/2024)
Actual score: Cubs 18, Pirates 8
Deserve-to-win: Cubs 42%, Pirates 52%, Tie 6%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimCubs
#MLBSimPirates
#Baseball
#Cubs
#Pirates
13
0
40
Royals at Twins (08/12/2024)
Actual score: Royals 3, Twins 8
Deserve-to-win: Royals 5%, Twins 88%, Tie 7%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimRoyals
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#Royals
#Twins
2
1
38
Twins at Rangers (08/15/2024)
Actual score: Twins 3, Rangers 2
Deserve-to-win: Twins 69%, Rangers 20%, Tie 11%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimTwins
#MLBSimRangers
#Baseball
#Twins
#Rangers
7
1
38
Guardians at Yankees (08/22/2024)
Actual score: Guardians 0, Yankees 6
Deserve-to-win: Guardians 2%, Yankees 96%, Tie 2%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimGuardians
#MLBSimYankees
#Baseball
#Guardians
#Yankees
6
0
37
Guardians at Yankees (08/21/2024)
Actual score: Guardians 1, Yankees 8
Deserve-to-win: Guardians 6%, Yankees 87%, Tie 7%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimGuardians
#MLBSimYankees
#Baseball
#Guardians
#Yankees
3
0
36
Royals at Guardians (08/26/2024)
Actual score: Royals 4, Guardians 3
Deserve-to-win: Royals 93%, Guardians 4%, Tie 3%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimRoyals
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Royals
#Guardians
3
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34
@JacobsFieldRBW
Just your daily reminder that you don't need to reply with your same (incorrect) complaints that we address in every post 👍
2
3
33
Twins at Rangers (08/17/2024)
Actual score: Twins 5, Rangers 2
Deserve-to-win: Twins 46%, Rangers 41%, Tie 13%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimTwins
#MLBSimRangers
#Baseball
#Twins
#Rangers
2
4
33
This is the luckiest win of the year! The Mets hit all 11 of the hardest hit balls in this game. The Marlins win this game ~1% of the time, and looks like this game fell into that 1%
--------- ALERT ---------
Marlins are luck merchants!
Marlins at Mets (08/18/2024)
Actual score: Marlins 3, Mets 2
Deserve-to-win: Marlins 1%, Mets 97%, Tie 2%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimMarlins
#MLBSimMets
#Baseball
#Marlins
#Mets
2
2
20
1
3
32
Guardians at Brewers (08/17/2024)
Actual score: Guardians 1, Brewers 2
Deserve-to-win: Guardians 5%, Brewers 85%, Tie 10%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimGuardians
#MLBSimBrewers
#Baseball
#Guardians
#Brewers
3
3
29
Based on batted ball metrics alone, the
#Braves
should probably have more wins than they actually do
0
7
26
--------- ALERT ---------
Cardinals are luck merchants!
Cardinals at Twins (08/25/2024)
Actual score: Cardinals 3, Twins 2
Deserve-to-win: Cardinals 21%, Twins 58%, Tie 21%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimCardinals
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#Cardinals
#Twins
1
1
25
The
#WhiteSox
have lost 21 straight games! How hard have they hit the ball vs every other teams' last 21 games? If we remove batted balls with a Launch Angle below 0° (i.e. blatant ground balls), then only the
#Guardians
hit fewer hard hit balls!
3
2
23
--------- ALERT ---------
Tigers are luck merchants!
Twins at Tigers (07/27/2024)
Actual score: Twins 2, Tigers 7
Deserve-to-win: Twins 45%, Tigers 39%, Tie 16%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimTwins
#MLBSimTigers
#Baseball
#Twins
#Tigers
0
5
22
--------- ALERT ---------
D-backs are luck merchants!
D-backs at Red Sox (08/25/2024)
Actual score: D-backs 7, Red Sox 5
Deserve-to-win: D-backs 6%, Red Sox 90%, Tie 4%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimDbacks
#MLBSimRedSox
#Baseball
#Dbacks
#RedSox
8
3
21
FYI the model is trained on batted ball data at each stadium, so I can’t provide a recap for the Tigers / Yankees game at Journey Bank Ballpark. Sorry :/
1
0
20
--------- ALERT ---------
Marlins are luck merchants!
Marlins at Mets (08/18/2024)
Actual score: Marlins 3, Mets 2
Deserve-to-win: Marlins 1%, Mets 97%, Tie 2%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimMarlins
#MLBSimMets
#Baseball
#Marlins
#Mets
2
2
20
--------- ALERT ---------
Cubs are luck merchants!
Brewers at Cubs (07/22/2024)
Actual score: Brewers 1, Cubs 3
Deserve-to-win: Brewers 76%, Cubs 15%, Tie 9%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimBrewers
#MLBSimCubs
#Baseball
#Brewers
#Cubs
1
3
20
7 of the 8 hardest hit balls were from Astros players. With 5 walks/hbp in tow, it’s surprising the
#Astros
only scored 2 runs, but bein 2-14 with RISP will do it
2
1
20
The Yankees hit 11 of the 17 hardest balls in this game, including 3 more barrels than the Guardians
2
0
18
@YATitTat
Lmao I get it. I just wanted to defend the Guardians for a sec since my model has been a field day for MN twitter lol
3
0
18
Cardinals at Twins (08/24/2024)
Actual score: Cardinals 0, Twins 6
Deserve-to-win: Cardinals 1%, Twins 98%, Tie 1%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimCardinals
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#Cardinals
#Twins
1
0
18
Cubs at Guardians (08/13/2024)
Actual score: Cubs 1, Guardians 2
Deserve-to-win: Cubs 23%, Guardians 63%, Tie 14%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimCubs
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Cubs
#Guardians
7
1
16
Twins at Padres (08/21/2024)
Actual score: Twins 11, Padres 4
Deserve-to-win: Twins 68%, Padres 23%, Tie 9%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimTwins
#MLBSimPadres
#Baseball
#Twins
#Padres
0
1
17
I'm working on adding stolen bases, caught stealing, and errors to the model. I accidentally tweeted a sample that had a 100% probability (since I only ran 1 sim as a test), so please ignore that😀
0
1
17
Separately, I want to show how teams have converted baserunners to runs and hard hit non-negative (i.e. Launch Angle > 0) batted balls per game
1
1
17
--------- ALERT ---------
Mariners are luck merchants!
Phillies at Mariners (08/03/2024)
Actual score: Phillies 5, Mariners 6
Deserve-to-win: Phillies 48%, Mariners 41%, Tie 11%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimPhillies
#MLBSimMariners
#Baseball
#Phillies
#Mariners
0
1
16
Pirates at Guardians (09/01/2024)
Actual score: Pirates 1, Guardians 6
Deserve-to-win: Pirates 0%, Guardians 100%, Tie 0%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimPirates
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Pirates
#Guardians
3
0
17
Scatterplot of lucky vs unlucky games for each team
1
4
15
Guardians at Twins (08/09/2024)
Actual score: Guardians 2, Twins 4
Deserve-to-win: Guardians 9%, Twins 82%, Tie 9%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimGuardians
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#Guardians
#Twins
0
1
15
Here's how teams' luck has trended this year.
#Guardians
have been the luckiest since April, while the
#Braves
and
#Athletics
fighting for unluckiest.
If your team doesn't start at 0, then that means their first game of the season was lucky/unlucky
3
4
15
--------- ALERT ---------
Cubs are luck merchants!
Blue Jays at Cubs (08/17/2024)
Actual score: Blue Jays 2, Cubs 3
Deserve-to-win: Blue Jays 66%, Cubs 24%, Tie 10%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimBlueJays
#MLBSimCubs
#Baseball
#BlueJays
#Cubs
9
0
15
--------- ALERT ---------
Mariners are luck merchants!
Phillies at Mariners (08/03/2024)
Actual score: Phillies 5, Mariners 6
Deserve-to-win: Phillies 48%, Mariners 41%, Tie 11%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimPhillies
#MLBSimMariners
#Baseball
#Phillies
#Mariners
0
1
16
0
0
14
--------- ALERT ---------
Phillies are luck merchants!
Phillies at Twins (07/23/2024)
Actual score: Phillies 3, Twins 0
Deserve-to-win: Phillies 24%, Twins 63%, Tie 13%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimPhillies
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#Phillies
#Twins
1
1
14
The
#Braves
hit 6 balls over 100 mph with only 1 hit to show (albeit a HR). Couple that with 4 more walks than the
#Cardinals
, ATL likely should’ve come away with this
1
2
14
The top 4 hardest hit balls from this game were from Cubs players
1
1
14
--------- ALERT ---------
Red Sox are luck merchants!
Red Sox at Royals (08/06/2024)
Actual score: Red Sox 6, Royals 5
Deserve-to-win: Red Sox 33%, Royals 56%, Tie 11%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimRedSox
#MLBSimRoyals
#Baseball
#RedSox
#Royals
3
4
13
Scatterplot of lucky vs unlucky games for each team. Most teams clustered around net 0
1
0
12
--------- ALERT ---------
Mets are luck merchants!
Mets at Yankees (07/23/2024)
Actual score: Mets 3, Yankees 2
Deserve-to-win: Mets 28%, Yankees 62%, Tie 10%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimMets
#MLBSimYankees
#Baseball
#Mets
#Yankees
4
3
12
Scatterplot of lucky vs unlucky games for each team
2
0
12
Wanted to point out a recent update: In order for the winning team to be considered a “luck merchant”, the losing team must have a win probability of >50%
Thanks
@TJStats
for the idea.
Reds at Pirates (08/24/2024)
Actual score: Reds 10, Pirates 2
Deserve-to-win: Reds 41%, Pirates 48%, Tie 11%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimReds
#MLBSimPirates
#Baseball
#Reds
#Pirates
0
0
1
1
0
12
--------- ALERT ---------
Guardians are luck merchants!
Guardians at Tigers (07/29/2024)
Actual score: Guardians 8, Tigers 4
Deserve-to-win: Guardians 41%, Tigers 49%, Tie 10%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimGuardians
#MLBSimTigers
#Baseball
#Guardians
#Tigers
3
1
12
Blue Jays at Twins (08/31/2024)
Actual score: Blue Jays 15, Twins 0
Deserve-to-win: Blue Jays 100%, Twins 0%, Tie 0%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimBlueJays
#MLBSimTwins
#Baseball
#BlueJays
#Twins
2
0
12
@YATitTat
The Guardians are better at things that my model doesn’t account for (speed, defense, etc), but they’re just outplaying what batted balls / walks alone would suggest
4
1
11
Cumulative luck broken out by division (AL)
3
1
11
There were 0 barrels in this game, and the most probable outcome was 0-0
Tigers at Guardians (07/24/2024)
Actual score: Tigers 1, Guardians 2
Deserve-to-win: Tigers 22%, Guardians 42%, Tie 36%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimTigers
#MLBSimGuardians
#Baseball
#Tigers
#Guardians
0
0
2
1
0
11
Yankees at White Sox (08/12/2024)
Actual score: Yankees 2, White Sox 12
Deserve-to-win: Yankees 5%, White Sox 91%, Tie 4%
#MLB
#Statcast
#MLBSimYankees
#MLBSimWhiteSox
#Baseball
#Yankees
#WhiteSox
1
1
10
This has only solidified the
#Guardians
status as
#LuckMerchants
of the year with net 23 lucky wins
The
#BlueJays
hit 14 balls over 98 mph in this game. This is the second-highest expected win probability to actually lose this year
2
1
5
1
1
10