Mitch Presnick 柏力
@mitchpresnick
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Visiting Fellow, @FairbankCenter at Harvard. Founder, @Super8 Hotels China & @APCOWorldwide China.
Cambridge & Hong Kong
Joined January 2011
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Check out my recent article, “The 4 Key Strengths of China’s Economy and What They Mean for Multinational Companies,” published today in
@HarvardBiz
.
In it, I argue that leveraging China’s strengths is a preferable alternative to decoupling.
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On US China and What’s Important Now
When I left the US and arrived in China in 1988, the US was rich and China extremely poor, but anyone could tell where they were going. They had that momentum along with the underlying productivity comity and unity of purpose. They were
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US and China competing over who can best persuade Chinese scientists to leave the U.S. and return to China.
“… departures increased by 75%, with two-thirds of the relocated scientists moving to China.”
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U.S. propaganda is even more effective than Chinese propaganda.
Why? In China, everyone knows propaganda when they see it. In the U.S., propaganda is so sophisticated, people don’t realize it’s propaganda.
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Chinese know us infinitely better than we know them.
300k Chinese students in USA, motivated TOEFL champs learning about America from Americans.
Meanwhile, we have China “experts” who mostly don’t speak or read Chinese, and some have never lived in China for any length of
Do we in the US know China better than China knows us? The opposite?
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In 1830, China accounted for 50% of global GDP. Ten years later, it lost a war, suffered a domestic rebellion, lost a 2nd war, then lost everything. China overplayed its hand.
In 1950, US accounted for 50% of global GDP. Seventy years later, we’re losing a proxy war,
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We can determine how far we have come spiritually by the degree to which we feel connection and empathy to those outside of our immediate circles.
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Anyone who knows Chinese history will tell you that China doesn’t approach great power relations or its place in the world the way the US does. Despite this, we in the West constantly assume they do.
John Mearsheimer believes that if China becomes powerful enough to be a regional hegemon and no longer has to worry about its own security, it will intervene in other countries’ affairs just like the US. Therefore, he argues that China must be prevented from becoming a great
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My great uncle Mike Presnick, who originally encouraged me to go to China back in 1983, once told me;
“Whomever you meet, give them a gift; a compliment, a kind word, a smile, or your full attention. Do this everyday, wherever you can, regardless of your mood. You never know
"Be a lamp, or a lifeboat, or a ladder. Help someone's soul heal. Walk out of your house like a shepherd."
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I’ve been hearing predictions of China’s imminent collapse since at least 1990. Intensely after 2001.
China’s economy isn’t imploding or anything like that, and that sort of thinking is dangerously naive. Their economy is not reliant on foreign trade or investment anymore.
@mitchpresnick
China is imploding as you type. This reminds me of the Japan scare of the early nineties. You don’t hear much now do you.
Prediction, in ten years the new fear will be India.
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When we zoom out and connect the dots, we see that China doesn’t necessarily need to sell many EVs or solar panel installations to the West if it can sell them to the rapidly growing middle class populations in the Global South including SE Asia and the Middle East. That’s what
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Huawei’s new Shanghai R&D center is larger than Apple Cupertino and Microsoft Redmond’s R&D combined.
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Yup. For EV, I’m worried about the U.S. not China. China (BYD Nio XPeng et al) has never relied on the US market to sell their EVs. But without China EV partners, the U.S. will forever be outside the pricing window and supply chain. That’s why their reaction to the new 104%
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Raytheon CEO: “What the American people need to know is … we have to find a way to get along. There is a codependency. We can’t pull out of China. It’s too big, too important, and too necessary to the US economy.”
It's very impractical to pull supply chains out of China, says Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes.
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American business wants to stay in China. Neither Japan Korea nor Taiwan want to lose China chip market. Europe doesn’t want to decouple. Taiwan is unconcerned about China military invasion. Buffett Cook Musk Dimon and Gates have all expressed caution about policy direction
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“China celebrates its 75th birthday, while its stock market is soaring. But at what cost?” is the best Western media can offer in this new era.
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“China never bets against the United States, and never interferes in its internal affairs. China has no intention to challenge the United States or to unseat it. Instead, we will be glad to see a confident, open, ever-growing and prosperous United States.
Likewise, the United
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The perception in DC that Chinese EVs are “Good for the World, Bad for America” is itself an indicator of the kind of primitive thinking which got us here.
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China now settles more than half of its international trade in RMB, up from zero in 2010. At current CAGR, China will settle >80% in RMB by 2030.
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“On the one hand, the US has clearly the freest media in the world; the best financed newspapers, TV stations, etc.
But, the insularity of the American discourse is actually frightening. This is also true of the NYT, WaPo, WSJ.
There is an incestuous, self-reverential
The insularity of American mind is something Americans are proud of.
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Because I spent thirty years in China, I heuristically understand how talented and capable they are as a nation. I’m definitely less biased than those who would view China through a CPC lens. I’ve witnessed the enormous blind spots and myopia created in many otherwise talented
@mitchpresnick
@AllMigh48938863
China’s success will be limited so long as its greatest proponents, like you, put the cart before the horse.
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On the Likelihood of Conflict between the US and China over Taiwan
It’s unlikely the US and China will ever go to war over Taiwan.
I realize this is hard to believe, given the downward trajectory in relationship, and especially when listening to the daily news or China
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Singapore is an amazing city and it’s going to be plenty busy in future just serving as the regional finance center for SE Asia - the world’s fastest growing economic area with the worlds largest group of aspiring middle class citizens. So don’t worry about that.
However,
@mitchpresnick
@BANANA_POSTING
Hong Kong falls, Singapore thrives. This process that has begun is irreversible.
Singapore possesses all the prerequisites to supplant Hong Kong as a global financial hub, like the similar time zone, the common law system, etc.
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China wind and solar power capacity exceeds coal for the first time.
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US infrastructure was the envy of the world for many decades. Note the boldness innovation and excellence of the Hoover Dam, Golden Gate Bridge, and US national highway system. As it’s now politically difficult to rejuvenate the US grid, the next best response for some, sadly,
Why do so many of my fellow Americans hate infrastructure so much? Genuine question? I didn’t play that many city building games but intuitively roads are one of the first things you build? That’s one of the main things that keeps your cities poor because you can’t really
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Another indication the era of engagement is over
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1. US crony capitalism has underperformed Chinese command capitalism for each of the 35 years I’ve been in China.
2. I believe the prime reason is that Chinese command capitalism better balances individualism and collectivism.
3. US institutions most able to compete
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“Like birds on isolated islands, America’s carmakers are evolving to suit an oddly congenial environment — one where they can grow big and bloated in the absence of competition from hungry rivals. Gradually, they’ll lose the ability to fly.”
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Surprised this topic isn’t receiving more attention. US defense companies rely on China supply chains almost as much as other Fortune 500 companies do.
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“3/4 of the 1.2 billion people who live in liberal democracies now hold a negative view of China, but 70% of the 6.3 billion who live in the rest of the world feel positively toward China. Developing countries favor Beijing’s focus on economic development”
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Excellent point. China is now 45 years and counting (since Deng’s Reform and Opening Policy began in 1978) without recession.
@mitchpresnick
There is so much remarkable about China’s rise, but one thing that stands out is the absence of boom and bust cycles, no recession for decades. Stability and resilience are part of the growth story that doesn’t get enough discussion in policy circles.
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I’m an American patriot, capitalist, and a huge fan of the USA. Why do you think I come here to dispel ignorance which is promulgated and blindly received by folks who don’t know any better, giving themselves false confidence which ultimately weakens the US position. Even if
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China decides whether to export DJI drones to U.S., after U.S. Senate declines to sanction DJI. This pattern will repeat for rare earths and other goods.
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What a difference 3 years can make for foreign brands in China.
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I’m not forced to say nice things about China or anyone. Being financially - and corporately - independent offers that advantage. It’s been many years since I stepped down as CEO of Super 8 China, the national hotel chain I founded.
I’ve been highly critical of China at
@mitchpresnick
Oh, I’m not saying I would invest money with him. But he isn’t forced to say positive things about China, which you seem to have a habit of doing. So I trust his judgment more than yours. He’s quoting Xi’s own words.
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@pstAsiatech
@ElbridgeColby
What it does display is a lack of irony, self awareness and any belief in the independent judgment of the audience. That, plus a distinct feeling of regret that, while they spent their capital on GDP flywheel infrastructure, we spent ours on dead money bases. It’s ‘rich’ for
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The U.S. could better compete with China if our ‘China experts’ were able to give the benefit of doubt to China given its economic accomplishments over the past 40 years. Although their model is radically different, it remains highly productive macro.
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@MatthewKroenig
Really? Wish we could be as big a basket case then. And, unlike the US GDP growth model, theirs is balanced, not just finance sector.
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It’s not an “Either-Or”.
China is an amazing country and culture. Ancient, wise, collectivist, history-minded, hardworking, productive, efficient at scale and full of traditional values like education family and hard work. For these reasons, the Chinese people have done
@thecyrusjanssen
The question remains, Cy, as to why a smart guy such as yourself would remain an "American patriot, capitalist, and a huge fan of the USA" in view of the systemic rot seen in American political economy when you also document how China's political economy works so much better (?).
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‘As far as the Chinese are concerned, their primary interest is China, always China. That’s number one. Their secondary interest is philosophy.’
- U.S. President Richard Nixon
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Many don’t realize that modern US prosperity in the 1950s and 60s was fueled by massive national transportation infrastructure and middle class housing booms, as with China today.
Like China’s, ours was fueled by national and local govt debt, and we built more than our share
@HaraldinChina
@mitchpresnick
@mortymer001
We all know building infrastructures in China is for meeting GDP growth targets as given by Beijing. It is not for development though it may use that pretext. If it’s for purely development then Guizhou will have no trouble repaying its $3.6 trillion debt.
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“If a China and America war went nuclear, who would win?” is possibly the silliest question
@TheEconomist
has ever asked.
Answer: we probably don’t survive if we believe that a valid question.
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Automation and AI will likely resolve much of the economic impact of China’s low birth rate. China watchers often suffer from outdated or subjective thinking when analyzing China’s future prospects. Hence the poor track record of their predictions.
First and foremost, our factory is highly automated. The steel-aluminum alloy armored cage for Xiaomi SU7 is assembled by 269 connecting robots, achieving 100% automated processes.
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The US has never been outplayed by China because its policies were too hawkish or dovish. We’ve watched the US outplayed for over three decades now — too soft and wide eyed before, too brittle and ham handed now. In both cases, while holding the stronger hand.
No, playing ‘too
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China now exports more to the Global South than the Developed World. Data Credit
@davidpgoldman
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TBT that time a US senator said something helpful about American competitiveness in the Global South.
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5G completely automates buildings, logistics, communications, and most transportation.
No humans involved, except for maintenance.
Qingdao Port, one of the ghost ports running 24 hours in China. It requires almost no staff.😃😃😃
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China has moved from the reform era to a post reform era. US China relations have moved from the engagement era to the post engagement era. China has moved from an important country to a peer superpower.
As the US processes these new realities, it’s forced to confront the
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Reprinting below message (with permission) from a “constructive but not pro-China” close American friend who has lived in Hong Kong since 1995, about his recent trip to Shenzhen during Golden Week.
“I just got back from a gig we're doing at Mission Hills. I had not been across
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2/3rds of the world’s self-made female billionaires are Chinese
@RnaudBertrand
Taylor Swift’s Eras tour concert movie is packing theaters across China, providing a rare outlet for young women rejecting ever-tighter social controls
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Plunged into poverty by the CPC and Mao? You’re joking I hope. You clearly don’t know anything about Chinese history. Mao and the CPC came to power specifically bc the country was so poor and dejected to begin with, that the people were willing to support a populist model
@mitchpresnick
Many of those "lifted out of poverty" were people plunged into poverty by the same Communist Party under Mao. And about 70 million people were starved or murdered by the communists. So, what are you trying to say? That the end justifies the means? It's an old and stale argument
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The Birth of Simone Yuelin Presnick
It is with great joy that we announce the birth of Simone Yuelin Presnick, born on the 28th of August, 2024.
Both mother and baby are doing well, and the family is delighted with the arrival of our newest member.
Warm regards are extended
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300k Chinese students in the US and 350 American students in China. US has to overcome an enormous knowledge disadvantage. That’s the point. The why is irrelevant.
There are only roughly 350 American students studying in China. Why? Sadly, because China is now a dangerous place to study. Why study in a place of near omnipresent surveillance, of deeply limited academic freedom, of growing distrust of foreigners, and with the knowledge that
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The Chinese government is organized more like a corporation than almost any government in modern times. Meritocratic, autocratic, and governed by a standing committee - each owning a portfolio - whose members are brought in by peers. Very similar to a board of directors.
@mitchpresnick
In a sense, i agree somewhat.
The CCP operates very similar to a MNC.
Let just say CCP is a MNC called "China Inc."
In "China Inc", you must be a member to work in it, you must serve for many years with amazing KPI in order to rise to the Central Committee.
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How is this not a main conversation in Washington. No great power has ever run permanent budget deficits while maintaining their global position.
Total US debt explodes to $35.7 trillion on Oct 1, up $345 billion from Sept 27.
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McDonalds China strategy differs completely from their other markets. They operate direct owned stores and don’t franchise. They have a major operating / financial partner and don’t own sole control. Most important, they don’t own the land or buildings in which their stores
@RnaudBertrand
McDonald's and Ikea beg to differ, they are doing the same business as everywhere in China.
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Fortune Global 500 change 2003-23
Japanese companies down 53%
U.S. companies down 29%
Chinese companies up 1,191%
Changing landscape of global businesses:
In 2003, American🇺🇸 companies dominated the Fortune Global 500 list.
In 2023, China🇨🇳 has more Fortune Global 500 companies than the US🇺🇸.
#FactsMatter
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Buffett knows that (1) Apple is losing share in China (2) Apple must remain relevant in China if it is to stay competitive globally, and (3) that Apple’s China market is imperiled by geopolitics and U.S. trade policies.
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The first sane and reasonable approach to China I’ve heard in years.
The indications are that the Chinese leadership does not want a military confrontation with us, and we shouldn’t want that either. America should compete with China on an economic plane, however. It would be good for the Chinese, good for Americans, and good for the rest of the
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China OFDI (outbound foreign direct investment) is estimated to reach $1.6Tn between 2024 & 2028. The biggest China story you aren’t hearing about.
I can imagine the headline now: “China invests trillions in international markets - but at what cost?”
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For 35 years, all I’ve ever heard from otherwise knowledgeable intelligent Westerners is how the economic sky is falling in China.
Then, as now, when it comes to foreigner business in China, vision and courage have always been in shortest supply. And the rewards have always
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China to invest $28bn in five next gen nuclear power plants, U.S. $4bn.
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Detractors will dismiss this video as govt propaganda, but that’s their loss.
I’ve always loved the way Chinese society celebrates sharing moments as much as individual achievements.
One can admire Chinese society without losing their American patriotism. I’m living proof.
Here is a short video from 2023 that showcases the heartwarming moments shared by regular Chinese citizens.
I love my country.
I love China.🇨🇳🥰
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We often make the mistake of assuming the Chinese think and operate the way we do. Leading to dangerously wrong conclusions. These are the wages of egocentricity.
.
@PaulJHeer
your example is more revealing than you may like: Chinese hegemony like traditional American ascendancy in the Western Hemisphere would be *very* detrimental to the rest of our interests. Latin America was a tiny fraction of world GDP, Asia will be 50%+.
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@rywilliams4379
Meditation and mindfulness work are great solutions. You won’t learn these in the mainstream Western discussion, where the solution to all problems is always “out there and in the future” instead of “within you and in this moment”.
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China can innovate. Believing otherwise is illogical. Plus, China can fast iterate, which is far more productive and practically useful.
Tsinghua University’s team has developed the world’s first vision chip with complementary pathways for open-world sensing, which mimics human vision principles. It captures visual information with minimal bandwidth and power, opening new avenues for autonomous driving and
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It’s common in the Developed West to assume its views represent world views. When in fact that is egocentrism and myopia.
These survey results are absolutely fascinating, showing that whilst the world's richest countries have a negative image of China, middle-income countries (including in China's neighborhood) overwhelmingly believe that China is a force for good.
The results:
- Whilst in
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We need more young people in the West who can speak Mandarin and know Chinese history and culture. Given how few Americans study in China these days, closing Confucian Institutes has been net counterproductive to US interests.
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Is there an American word for irony? President Chiang oversaw 白色恐怖 and 38 yrs 2 months of martial law in Taiwan.
Arguably the best ever tweet combo I've seen.
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China is Intel’s largest market, accounting for 26% of global sales. Guess how they feel about tech wars?
Intel is cooked
- 15,000+ to be laid off
- $INTC down 29% today
- Dividend suspended
- Foundry business hemorrhaging billions
- Broken Raptor Lake chips unfixable
- ARM taking over laptop market
- ARM taking over data center market
- Totally missed the AI hype train
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China and the US maintain the same proportion of total aggregate debt - 350% of respective GDP.
350% of GDP comprises debt from all sources, including national, local govt / municipal, consumer, and mortgage debt.
Baseline US national debt is 130% of GDP vs China’s 70% of GDP.
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The US doesn’t seem to be able politically to make the sacrifices and systemic changes necessary, to do the hard work and take the long term view, the way the Chinese have done in order to put themselves into their enviable industrial and tech position.
But as the Chinese
@mitchpresnick
@pstAsiatech
Yes, it is a sad state of affairs, but it doesn’t have to stay that way. Countries are already pushing back on neo mercantilism, eg Brazil, EU. The goal is to create a separate dem bloc.
We sold China the rope they’re using to hang us. Germany is kowtowing as we speak.
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We create the past in the present, like a ship creates it’s wake.
How?
The meaning we give our memories is based on feelings about what happened, not what happened itself. And views change over time, with perspective & experience.
So as our views change, so does our past.
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Yes. What I and the rest of the veteran US business community in China have been seeing for some time, is that the operating environment is now better for our companies than anytime in recent memory, despite the negative chorus of those outside and looking in.
the biggest geopolitical story out of davos:
the chinese have shown up in force
(and they’re eager to engage)
@gzeromedia
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No one I knew in 1988 thought China would become an economic superpower. Everyone thought Japan would rule for 100 years. Mao suits and bicycles blinded everyone to China’s potential. Shortsightedness and subjectivity projection have always been the West’s Achilles Heel.
It
Off tangent, Didn’t all those who went travelling around Asia post Berlin Wall fall assume China would be more successful than Japan was between 1950-1989. Maybe you have an anchoring bias ? ( I actually find it quite funny people think like that )
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Well worth watching. Eric Lee at FCC in HK last month.
“We’re the only major economy in the world that does not have an inheritance tax, property tax, or capital gain tax. And we’re a socialist country.”
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China is no market for the faint of heart. But a necessarily intense and unrelenting gladiator’s arena for MNCs to test ourselves and become more globally competitive. Also, as Dollar General and Facebook recently learned, if you don’t compete with China in China, you’ll lose
Tesla's Market Struggle: Reduced Production And Competitive Pressure In China
@pstAsiatech
Yes, this is what firms do when demand is reduced, firms also seek to expand in overseas markets. Companies adjust capacity, not "China." There is always either under or overcapacity wthn
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As someone who has played Chess and Go for many years, I would never advise a chess thinker enter a serious match with a Go player. The chess player will be overmatched even if the Go player is one or two levels less skilled on a relative basis. Here’s why:
Chess is linear and
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Tesla has done great in China at adapting and localizing. But they are totally not there in terms of China speed product iteration. Chinese EV makers come from the tech industry, where annual product iteration is the norm. Tesla still operates in standard American car industry
@mitchpresnick
Honestly, Teslas look the same as they did years ago, inside and out. I have heard people say "this is behind my (...) brand car" so many times now I wonder when they will finally hear that...
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Like I always say, rumors of China’s economic demise are greatly exaggerated.”
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The problem with US zero sum policies is that they are unproductive by definition. Just ask Tonya Harding.
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Overreaching in policies toward China poses a greater threat to U.S. interests than China itself does.
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It’s very difficult to become a true foreign expert on China. But the reason so many smart Westerners get China wrong is not ‘hatred & grievances’ so much as the egocentric habit of assuming China’s motivations, values and principles to be roughly similar to ours.
@mitchpresnick
@nuanced_nl
@davidpgoldman
They say who gets wrong is not a China/Russia expert. Is that so? One can never be an expert. They get it wrong because already there are hatred, grievances prior to analysis. Those emotions creates the distortions. I am not talking about balance, I am talking about a world view
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China has more internet users than the U.S. EU Japan Korea and Australia have citizens combined.
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There is a silent majority of goodwill between the American and Chinese peoples, which has built over the last 40 years.
Never forget this, despite what some may have you believe. An enormous reservoir of friendship has been created, which no one may take away.
As giant
#panda
Ya Ya is about to leave
#Memphis
for its home
#China
, we went to the
#memphiszoo
and heard some real heartfelt expressions.
Take a listen!
#Chinarama
#WestWatch
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De-risking goes both directions. Selling off US treasuries has less to do with Yuan weakness, and everything to do with getting outside the blast radius of U.S. spiraling debt and domestic issues.
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I and many others are working very hard to ensure the the US China post engagement relationship remains amicable and mutually beneficial. But I agree the days of unbounded friendship are over.
The end of an Era. China-US relationship will never be as before.
Prepare for War
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We appointed China sole supplier of clean tech globally when we failed to make clean tech a key national priority and create vertically integrated industrial policies around EV & PV. Now we must JV and license their tech to ensure we don’t get left further behind.
@mitchpresnick
@pstAsiatech
Who appointed China the sole supplier for the whole world? Overcapacity refers to supply in excess of China’s domestic demand. By dumping China’s excess capacity onto the rest of the world, China prevents the Global South from industrializing, keeping them poor. That’s evil!!
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What can the U.S. learn from China? A great deal. What’s stopping us? Outdated information and hubris.
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Better to think in terms of direction, and incremental improvement. Towards and away, slightly better each day. It removes the perfectionist imperative; the ‘all or nothing’ knife’s edge which makes goal achievement more difficult over the long term. 2/2
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I’m delighted to announce that I have accepted a Visiting Fellow of Practice appointment at the
@FairbankCenter
for Chinese Studies within Harvard University’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences. My research will focus on ‘China Post-Engagement: Balancing Coupling and Decoupling’.
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China would have this Baltimore bridge rebuilt in under 2 years for 1/5 the cost and 1/1000 the drama. If the US is serious about competing, it needs to redirect national energy towards efficiency productivity and getting its game up.
What’s that you say? At least we have
How long will it take cost to rebuild the Baltimore bridge which just collapsed?
Tappan Zee Bridge: 1952 to 1955, $973 million in 2018 dollars
Mario Cuomo Bridge: 2013 to 2018, $3,980 million in 2018 dollars, 6 years to build
- Over 4x the cost, not counting the $1 billion in
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He who blames others has a long way to go on his journey.
He who blames himself is halfway there.
He who blames no one has arrived.
- The 36 Stratagems (三十六计)
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@ThucydidesCA
@chazgao
Isn’t it interesting how the Cultural Revolution vibe seems to have hopped over the pond here now. Never would have seen that coming.
I remember reading ‘1984’ in Beijing during Tiananmen Square, and getting chills about some of the similarities.
Now I read about books
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‘Is there Chinese overcapacity?’ is not the right question. When global EV demand hits the tipping point, even 3x current will look like under-capacity. The better question is, ‘how do we participate?’ VW’s recent $2.7b EV investment in Hefei shows business would rather light
The debate about China’s excess capacity and its exports has become silly and political. Yet there are clear examples of weak domestic demand driving a surge in its exports, helped by a cheap currency and government support. Yes, we need to talk about excavators. 1/
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Temu and Shein became Amazon’s biggest US competitors in less than 3 years, surpassing even Walmart in importance, by focusing on this pricing disparity. Temu and Shein focus on lower prices to consumer, Amazon focuses on control of its suppliers’ decisions. Guess who will win.
World Premiere of Amazon — Market. Power! Monopoly?
This documentary will show you how Amazon uses its size and power to raise prices, for you, the consumer.
The documentary follows four sellers on Amazon, two in Europe, two in the US, and their journey to survive on the
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@Forexmkts
@zerohedge
Also, good luck to the continued primacy of USD reserve currency status if the worlds largest emerging trading nations India Russia China Brazil & Saudi A decide there is no adv to trade in USD. This is a double edged sword at best. Historians aren’t cavalier about this trend.
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Was just back on Peking University campus last week and being there still makes my heart stir after all these 35 years. Took a picture in front of 北京大学图书馆 with my friend and fellow alumni. 我爱北大!
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