Matt Casto
@mcasto_
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Investing/trading software eating programmable money | DeFi trader/researcher @CMT_Digital | @InternDAO | Contributor @ournetwork__ | Tweets ≠ advice
Joined March 2019
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I too start crypto in different years with magically different amounts of money
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@nic__carter
Noticed this has been happening a lot more frequently. If this happens to me I order through a different app then tell the original driver I have plenty of time to wait. Halfway in to their shenanigans I tell them I ordered on a different app and am being driven to my
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@voxdotcom
Now might be a good time to consider giving back that SBF donation you received and stop being an SBF apologist
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Looks like a wallet owned by ParaFi has bought $2.2m PERP and $1.7m DYDX. They have also staked their PERP.
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Terra's rise is even more impressive when you look at how in 2019 when it became liquid, LUNA started at $1.32 and in four months closed at $0.24, down 81%. Was trading at parity with Seed round price of $0.23 and -70% vs Private round price of $0.80.
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Genius move by
@binance
, incorporating staking-as-a-service on the platform as a means of migrating liquidity from other exchanges to Binance. Yet again, they’re the first mover in terms of capitalizing on creative ways to add and retain customers. Big props to
@cz_binance
#Binance
Will Support
@StellarOrg
( $XLM) Staking & Launch a 9,500,000 XLM Initial Staking Reward Airdrop.
Users holding XLM on Binance may expect to receive a 1st staking reward amount equivalent to roughly 10-12 months worth of staking rewards!
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Addresses with a non-zero balance of BTC are at an all time high in 2021 vs other years at the same date.
This time is different.
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First time OHM buyer coming in for a cool $2.4m buy. Size buyer of CVX from the looks of it as well.
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@JamesSpediacci
Imagine watching this and not thinking they would be selling into the market
This is the worst thing I've seen in my entire fucking life
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Wallet swapped for 607k RBN 10 minutes before the announcement.
Inbound transfers for API3, BLZ, GODS, IMX, MDT and RBN available in the regions where trading is supported. Traders cannot place orders and no orders will be filled. Trading will begin on or after 9AM PT on Thurs Dec 9, if liquidity conditions are met.
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Vaguely recall some VCs in those rounds being called out for sending unlocked supply to exchanges to sell out of positions. Wonder what they think now seeing it trade at $84.
Also notice that some VCs who invested in any of the three TERRA token sales aren't on new cap tables.
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Holding assets that hit high marks +3 years ago is proving to be a massive lost opportunity cost for deploying capital.
There's a reason 83% of assets that hit a high price in January 2018 are trading +90% below their ATHs.
ATH/Cycle Low data is from
@MessariCrypto
API
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Days from 0 to 1m unique addresses pinging DeFi: 1,080
Days from 1m to 2m unique addresses pinging DeFi: 143
Days from 2m to 3m unique addresses pinging DeFi: 79
Dune query h/t
@richardchen39
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One of my high-level investing theses lately has been investing in cash-flow accruing protocols that aggresively scale through new product integrations (why I am invested in HEGIC and SUSHI) that trade at a discount relative to their peers. This has led me to buy FARM recently.
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Built out a Parsec dashboard to track OP metrics in real-time, this is helpful in viewing data such as:
- Seeing OP quantities claimed by address
- Top claimers and if they are trading OP
- Tokens leaving OP airdrop contract via token accumulation app
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rlBTRFLY is crushing it right now, seeing most BTRFLY claimed as rewards being locked plus new entrants coming in and locking BTRFLY.
Re: claimers locking rewards, the top addresses receiving rewards are clearly doing this as rewards vs locked amounts are pretty much same amount
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Another reason I'm particularly bullish on Kyber going forward is their strong positive correlation regarding price to onchain metrics. Their YTD ROI is indicative of protocol growth, not just speculation.
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ENA FDV at launch: $8b
W FDV at launch: $11b
ENA current FDV: $13.8b
W current FDV: $5.6b
ENA had 19% of FDV as TVL at launch but is +74% since becoming liquid vs W at -60%.
Lesson in there, get aggressive with early integrations in existing protocols that have reflexive
It appears that the window for launching a token and seeing it do an instant 2-3x is closed for now.
Most recent token launches are down bad:
$OMNI
$W
$PARCL
Market unable to absorb all the additional liquidity + people getting airdrops seemingly want to cash them in instead
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ParaFi is continuing to aggressively buy DYDX, and have bought $3.75m more (277k DYDX at $13.52 average price). Most recent swap of $1.1m is the largest since their initial buys. Started buying in this wallet at $15.63 and last buy was at $11.60.
Looks like a wallet owned by ParaFi has bought $2.2m PERP and $1.7m DYDX. They have also staked their PERP.
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An in-depth look into the CVX flows that Pirex by
@redactedcartel
has received to date, so far nearly 734K CVX has been deposited with about 703K locked as vlCVX.
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9,9'd FXS to buy more FXS. Seeing strong inflows into veFXS, willing to bet supply being sold over the past two weeks is being picked up by longer term high quality holders.
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Only 33% of tokens that raised at least $50mn trade at a market cap greater than their ICO proceeds.
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@TheModestThief
I like your framework, for mine I took assumption that since both the Arbitrum and Optimism ecosystem have had vibrant growth since OP launched, I took a similar FDV/TVL that OP would have if you took current TVL/initial val. So I think ARB will trade around $14b initially.
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Had the opportunity to cover
@maplefinance
in this week's RWA issue. This one comes packed with awesome analysis from a highly talented group of people, make sure to give it a read and subscribe!
JUST IN:
#RWA
Mega Issue 🌍💥 — Undeniable Signs of
#DeFi
Mainstream Adoption.
@rwa_xyz
🌐 -
@adamlawrencium
@goldfinch_fi
🐤 -
@_blakewest
@maplefinance
🥞 -
@mcasto_
@centrifuge
🌀 -
@d_evvy
@0xPolygon
🏦 -
@p_petertherock
@ClearpoolFin
🏊 -
@JKronbichler
READ ON
#176
→
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Seeing notable increase in new OHM buyers vs old ones over the past couple months, probably are comfortable with the current price coupled with sufficient liquidity available for putting on positions thanks to POL
Query here:
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Coins with parabolic moves this year have been shedding a lot of value since hitting ATHs recently. ROIs since ATHs around -30% to -50%.
Data via
@MessariCrypto
API
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This thread is a quasi-comprehensive overview of tokens that conducted ICOs starting in 2017. Marking ICO prices to current prices, it's clear tokens that allocated significant quantities of initial supplies to investors have been performing better in the secondary market.
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Looks like keep3r governance multisig bought 92k more CVX this morning, used 2m MIM to buy it making this trade their second largest to date. Expecting them to lock it as they've done with every buy to date.
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XTZ trading +25% over Kraken and +23% over Binance. The exchanges with fiat on-ramps that have the most retail flow generally will trade at a premium to exchanges using only crypto pairs when coins experience bullish price movements.
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September had the two largest daily quantites of SNX bought on DEXs (9/5 and 9/6) so far this year and was the month with the most SNX acquired. Large holders have been accumulating since July, and large buys posted last month with lower trader counts.
Disclosure: I am long SNX
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DEX tokens have been on tear and this is warranted due to increases in levels of usage and DAUs as well as tokenomic improvements that beneift token holders. It's interesting that IDEX has been underperforming given its high volume and trader count relative to other DEXs.
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If you bought 500 ZEN at the beginning of 2018 and ran a super node, you would have accrued about $3.3K in taxes on a position that is now worth $4.6K.
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Looking at daily capital it takes to absorb new tokens hitting circulation, I'd be wary of putting on positions in coins such as XLM, ALGO, and HBAR.
They also have high ratios when looking at USD needed to market caps and daily tokens hitting circulation to liquid supplies.
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@MattFiebach
Personal view is that SYN is best positioned to be the next Chainlink although LDO def could be.
Next DeFi summer I think will be led by forks of the next +$1b protocols that remove cap tables, add ponzinomics, and launch at significant val reductions to whatever they fork.
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Created a Dune dashboard for checking out xMPL inflows/outflows, viewable here:
🥞+🥩=🧡
MPL STAKING IS NOW LIVE!
First movers will receive the greatest returns as we are bootstrapping the launch with an additional 30,000 MPL.
Go stake them cakes:
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+$500k OHM buy came in a couple days ago after two months without one 👀
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To date have seen 841k DYDX bought onchain then bridged, pretty powerful supply sink for new onchain buys
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The most recent token to hit its ATH according to ATL/ATH data from Messari is REN. I provide a breakdown of the token’s performance and holder behavior below.
Disclosure: I am long REN
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@HsakaTrades
SOL's timing with going live was impeccable, they went live at easily the most opportune time to do so. Also raised $25.5m at average $69m val vs ICP with $121.6m at $331m. Aptos has already raised 2x ICP.
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@Darrenlautf
@CoinbasePro
Might also be due to this guy who swapped 7,875 ALCX ($3.1M) for 1,197 ETH about 15 minutes ago. Day trades ALCX in size from time to time due to their deep liquidity in the Sushiswap pool.
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The daily count of addresses holding at least 1 FXS has great growth over the past month, and only four days where the daily change exceeded -10 since the start of September. Probably nothing.
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@VentureCoinist
I don’t have a recommendation, but it’s interesting to see the staking narrative play out as bakers need to possibly buy the underlying as well as index rebalancing. The Bitwise 10 as of the beginning of the month replaced DASH with XTZ.
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Even in the midst of a bullish rally, coins that were beneficiaries of the Q1 2018 alt season are still down massively from their ATHs. Even the coins that have printed the largest postive ROIs from their ATLs are massively discounted from their ATH prices.
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@ASvanevik
@nansen_ai
Personal opinion for improving tags on Nansen:
- Make separate tag for funds/VCs/prop firms/etc
- Make separate tag for addresses that are heavy recipients of several protocols’ vested supply
- Keep smart money tag for addresses that are early profitable LPs/farmers/stalkers/etc
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YTD
@KyberNetwork
has experienced strong price upside that has generally been correlated with increasing trade volumes and KNC burns. Here is a deeper look at the platform and network value accrual it’s been maintaining lately.
Disclosure: I am long KNC
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Sizable liqs hitting Fraxlend CVX market just now, net borrowed/utilization has also decreased. CVX in the pool dropped 29% following the liqs.
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Took about a minute of diligence to see it's an exchange address. The face that we haven't seen any threads mislabeling Binance/Coinbase addresses as whales tells me these thread writers are looking for random ambiguous centralized exchange wallets. State of onchain thread
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Seems safe to say that Bitmex traders have remained indifferent about the exchange's email debacle that occured at the beginning of November. They had negative cumulative BTC flows for the first 11 days, but haven't had a negative cumulative flow since.
via
@thetokenanalyst
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Address who bought is 0x5028d77b91a3754fb38b2fbb726af02d1fe44db6. They received 13,720 AAVE from a ParaFi-owned wallet about a year ago, tx hash here:
ParaFi-labeled wallets are also top interacting wallets for the address.
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A comprehensive look at the buying patterns of HEGIC holders who are buying larger size than the average HEGIC buyer.
Disclosure: I am long HEGIC
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With 4pool on mainnet now it's going to be fun monitoring token flows within the pool. ~1.1m/stable in the pool currently, below metrics showing FRAX details.
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Six +$1M ALCX buys so far today, the most out of any day so far.
Five of which came from the same wallet. That wallet started buying ALCX today.
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20m crvUSD minted, can view a preview of the layout below. Will be adding components to it as time progresses.
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People were losing their shirts about USDT’s weight in 3pool 1.5 weeks ago, and now it’s back to pre-spike levels. Worth noting how significant the weight imbalance shifts post Terra, it’s effectively an onchain fear gauge now.
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Daily Uniswap volume on Arbitrum/Optimism at the start of the year: $15m, now at $374m with Arbitrum market share a large majority of volume.
Been spending a lot of time looking at the Arbitrum DeFi ecosystem and am really excited about it going forward.
Query available here:
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Nearly each new recent Coinbase listing has a better inital return than the preceding one.
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@mrjasonchoi
- Very large if not largest single day USDC inflow to Coinbase to convert to USD
- Prob see considerable liq pulled from DEX pairs that use USDC/BUSD. These assets will probably be down more on the day relative to others due to sharp drop in liq depth.
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New CVX whale, bought about $30m of CVX so far, pushing the price to $45 currently. No previous exposure to CVX in the wallet.
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@cobie
As someone who has a deep understanding of what is happening I think
@samkazemian
would be a great guest. Also think
@0xHamz
is a great choice too.
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@statelayer
Better be paying attention if Scroll is ever in the crosshairs of being the leading candidate for a liquid token launch
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Looks like Arca may have a new FXS position, address in question bought 57K FXS ($2m marked at current price). No exposure in the wallet until 14 hours ago.
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With the year coming to an end, here are the YTD ROIs based on sectors for the largest 200 cryptoassets based on reported market cap.
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Noticed large 1Inch CVX buy came in today for 125k CVX, largest buy in the wallet by a factor of 3.3x. Wallet has been a buyer since June 2021, making it one of the earliest buyers. Wallet has shown good discipline when buying in size, with +10k CVX buys done for $2m at $6.44 avg
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Absolutely love
@parsec_finance
ability to chart discretionary contract logs.
Plotting out SUSHI price based on ETH sold/SUSHI bought along with buy size and net SUSHI bought/sold.
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This is ridiculous. This morning OMG traded at $3.90 on Coinbase while trading at $2.14 on Binance (82.34% premium on 5 min closing prices). New lifetime bagholders being created rn.
OMG fell victim to the Coinbase listing premium, traded about 17% over Binance when trading when live today.
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Looks like BlockTower loaded up a nice 600 ETH bag of BTRFLY, staked it right after the last 50 ETH clip.
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Think it's too late to buy SPELL? Only one account has bought with a swap amount > $1m that has current exposure, and it has traded $53m on sushiswap in the past day and has $25m in liquidity. Plenty of depth for larger swaps to come in.
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Extremely thrilled to announce my first work for
@OurNetwork__
which was covering
@fraxfinance
.
Some additional on-chain insights I found while creating this 👇👇👇
All data below was created using
@parsec_finance
OurNetwork
#115
is live with community-sourced
#DeFi
alpha ✅
Projects
@LidoFinance
@AaveAave
@MakerDAO
@Instadapp
@fraxfinance
Analysts
@visavishesh
@_LewisHarland_
@StevenMatcha
@mcasto_
@Zachchao
Data
@DuneAnalytics
@CoinGecko
@nansen_ai
@DefiLlama
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CVX selling seems to be because of this:
Locked CVX is now liquid for people to relock in the new contract, which is 30m CVX / $470m. It's a large liquidity event but the total avg buy price to date is $15.44, which is very close to the current price.
Important update for vote-locked $CVX holders: the vote-locking contract has been re-deployed, and users will need to re-lock their $CVX tokens.
Full details in our latest medium post:
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Newest member of the +$1m OHM club, bought 2k OHM at $504.
Also still has the 400 UNI airdrop, hasn't touched it since claiming the airdrop
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Finally got around to listening to the
@goodgamepodxyz
with
@dcfgod
and hitting myself for not listening to it when it first came out, so many good insights and alpha shared.
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@ethersole
@defiXBT
@crypt1c33
At least with the wallet I track (0xaba85673458b876c911ccff5e3711bcedb3b4f56) their entry is way higher. $213 to $3.7k with average far closer to the high end of the range.
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Lots of SUSHI buying today from +$100K notional swap sizes, love to see it.
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To my knowledge
@parsec_finance
is the only place where you can plot out OHM price, trades in real-time, the sOHM supply and index, buys plotted out as the OHM/DAI price, and OHM accumulation. All done through one of the best looking interfaces in DeFi.
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Large on-chain GUSD borrower accounts for nearly 60% of on-chain borrow today. Wallet used GUSD to swap for USDC which they swapped for USDT, then used it to repay on Aave. Even with Curve gusd pool 51% weighted in GUSD, seeing more DAI being sold today in the pool.
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Really excited about this product rollout, especially considering the custom prebuilt layouts by address type. Enabling the ability to bring high fidelity information with a couple of clicks is an exciting addition to the already robust data offering that Parsec provides.
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@will__price
@SplitCapital
No need good sir here are a couple I have made recently:
veRBN:
veFXS:
xBTRFLY:
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Been looking at vesting schedules lately and utilizing analytics platforms to create unique dashboards detailing vesting information, like using
@DuneAnalytics
here to make one for
@vegaprotocol
:
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Closed out their ILV position today, realized 100 ETH profit. Have been buying DYDX in size today with $3.4m bought so far.
Picked up on some large ILV buying today. The address in question started buying yesterday, so far has bought 6k ILV in two clips for a total of 900 ETH ($2.7m). On average paid $461/ILV, and currently has $36M in their address.
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@cyounessi1
Caught up with a friend recently, mentioned they had invested in pulsechain. I was incredibly surprised that someone far removed from investing knew what it was. Told me to check it out as they were supposed to receive “more coins than what they invested.” I was speechless too
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$DENT nearly did a 200x from it's token sale price and it's ROI marked at the current price is -65%.
Data via
@MessariCrypto
Hard to believe this but today ICON $ICX completed a full round trip back to its ICO price after 111x gains:
• ICO price: $0.11
• ATH: $12.22 (1/9/18)
• Today: $0.11
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I've been thoroughly enjoying reading Mika's newsletter whenever it hits my inbox, it's a perfect balance between detail and brevity, and I constantly feel more informed after reading them. Can't recommend subscribing enough.
Substack passed 1,000 subscribers today.
If you haven't already, subscribe to get data-driven & fundamental analysis on the crypto markets.
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As I've covered before, cvxFXS/FXS price blowing out lately presents potential arb opportunity for FXS holders. cvxFXS has been trading at >5% discount since the end of May. cvxFXS swapped for FXS in the pool generally leads to a wider discount, and can be seen in pool weighting.
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PMON private sale return vs first fill: +585%
AIOZ private sale return vs first fill: +1,366%
Interesting that earliest fills for both were the largest buys in terms of asset quantity and cost basis, also at considerably lower prices than the rest of the buys for the day.
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