Russell: "It is strange that the last men of intellectual eminence before the dark ages were concerned, not with saving civilization... or reforming the abuses of the administration, but with preaching the merit of virginity and the damnation of unbaptized infants."

@tgof137 You should at least link to my arXiv response to their arXiv response, added at the end to this no-pay-wall version.

RT @Kasparov63: This will be dismissed as "hysteria" like many of my warnings about Trump & Musk that are coming true. But this doesn't end…

@razibkhan Hey- I cared and did something.

@ProGof39474 @tgof137 Wikipedia on early NY state: "New York after 89 cases had been confirmed in the state, 70 of them in Westchester County,"

@tgof137 @ProGof39474 It would be great to get the link for that map as well as one for the Westchester outbreak

@ProGof39474 @OrionJohnston @tgof137 Debarre/Worobey counter-argue that special features of the HSM neighborhood could give the tight unlinked cluster w/o bias. The problem is that once you take those population structure factors into account the rest of their argument becomes invalid. That's what Levin addresses.

@tgof137 See NYC, well documented: "initial citywide dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 via a subway-based network, followed by percolation of new infections within local hotspots"

@ProGof39474 @tgof137 Decent argument. NYC spreading is documented here: "initial citywide dissemination..via a subway-based network, followed by percolation of new infections within local hotspots"

@tgof137 Not sure what you're saying I changed. Collider bias giving extra unlinked clustering would coexist with superspreader clustering. You think Xinfadi came from imported salmon? Because an almost undetectable SC2 trace was found there by a lab *after* testing many very +ve samples?

@tgof137 What was weird about the HSM cluster was not that it existed but that many *unlinked* cases clustered tightly exactly on the market although the linked cases were less clustered and centered kilometers away.

@tgof137 Why would there be a point "before it begins"? That's not at all consistent with the known record of changing case definitions and partial retroactive searches.

@tgof137 That's an error in logic. Ascertainment collider bias is probabilistic, not 0% vs. 100%

@tgof137 I absolutely did not assume that. "crowded market...come into contact with far more people at work" -> *linked* cases. The issue is the unlinked ones.

RT @craigunger: I'm reposting this because it was clealry shadow banned. A mere 564 views when I often get over 500,000? And @elonmusk clai…

@ColinDavdButler Colin- Unfortunately out of the frying pan into the fire. Re Bhattacharya: Ioannidis was predicting 10k US covid deaths, maybe 40k tops.

@gadboit I'm not sure that's how Levin's model works. If it came from elsewhere and then was brought in to Wuhan at several places, not just HSM, shortly after MRCA I think that would also fit. He's rejecting Z_HSM, not general Z, I think.

@buzzrealist @TheSeeker268 @emilyakopp It's the time that the DEFUSE proposal to DARPA said that they'd start having some infectious clones ready to test. I think you're insane.

@buzzrealist @TheSeeker268 @emilyakopp It was probably lab altered. There is no reason to think it was deliberately released. Lab accidents happen constantly.

@nizzaneela @ydeigin IMHO, don't worry about the audience. If you're as clear, correct, & prompt as you can be the audience thing can be dealt with later. When I started the big blog a friend asked me who could possibly read it. I guessed pretty much no-one. Last count 10.7k, tho some are redundant.