Hello again! After an intense and very insightful time with the great people at
@BMWK
, I’m back in the Eurosphere: I’ve joined
@BertelsmannSt
as senior advisor on all things 🇪🇺 econ policy and 🇩🇪’s role in it. Hit me up whenever you’re in Berlin!
A large majority of Germans support "EU financial aid to hard-hit countries like 🇮🇹 and 🇪🇸" across all parties except the AfD. Of course this says nothing about precise form of solidarity - but it shows that the Germans support not leaving 🇪🇺 partners alone in this crisis.
🇳🇱🇦🇹🇸🇪🇫🇮🇩🇰 are playing with fire. 🇪🇺 is built on the assumption that you can trust each other to cooperate in good faith. This kind of trust is why countries have opened their borders and their markets and have given up sovereignty. Guess what will happen once that trust is gone.
Einen Vorteil hat das
#Glyphosat
Desaster ja: Die deutsche Presse diskutiert endlich mal ausführlich, dass EU-Regulierung nicht vom Brüsseler Himmel fällt, sondern die Bundesregierung da jedesmal mit abstimmt. Vielleicht kann man da in Zukunft ab und zu auch drüber berichten?
Das
@_FriedrichMerz
-Interview im
@handelsblatt
ist beeindruckendes Anschauungsmaterial, wie sich ein Teil der Konservativen im europapolitischen Wald verirrt hat und jetzt nicht mehr herausfindet.
Warum das ein Problem ist:
Here we go: Merkel says she can imagine EU bonds based on Article 122 beyond SURE and EU budget needs "completely different financial possibilities" in the years following the crisis. "Germany will participate in solidarity measures beyond the 500 billion euro package."
„Es droht ein massiver
#Linksrutsch
in Deutschland und Europa.
#Scholz
will die Schuldenunion, den weichen Euro und die Bankenunion. Wenn es rechnerisch möglich ist, werden
#SPD
und
#Gr
üne mit der
#Linkspartei
koalieren, Vorbereitungen laufen längst.“ (tm)
The
#Eurogroup
has actually decided on something. And we should take a second to cherish that moment. In sum: We get an ESM credit line nobody needs; an EU loans scheme with no real strings attached; and an opening for burden sharing.
The
#EUCO
deal is a mixed bag. The Recovery Instrument is nothing short of a historic step. But the MFF is mediocre and a missed chance. And the eternal rule has been confirmed: Unanimity is poison.
My take on last night's season finale:
This is my last week working for
@DelorsBerlin
. It was an amazing ride with an amazing group of people that I‘ll terribly miss. I’ll forever be grateful to
@henrikenderlein
for this opportunity.
And now for sth new: As of Monday, you‘ll find me in the strategy division of
@BMWK
.
"Historic" is not a description to be used lightly. But today marks the day that the EU is for the first time formally allowed to issue debt worth several hundred billion euros to finance common expenditure.
This is just that: historic.
Excellent news!
All 27
#EU
Member States have now approved the Own Resources Decision - the piece of legislation that makes it possible for
@EU_Commission
to borrow for
#NextGenerationEU
- and notified
@EUCouncilPress
.
Borrowing for the recovery can now start as of June!🇪🇺💪
Its main message seems to be this: Member states need to get their act together if they want to keep the continent on a path of prosperity. They need to agree on what they want and how to do it. They need a plan.
Die Suche nach Policy-Fehlern und eher plumpes Brüssel-Bashing gehen in der Impfdiskussion gerade Hand in Hand. Ersteres ist notwendig, letzteres aus vielen Gründen gefährlich.
Der Versuch einer Einordung:
The Letta report suffered from several of these ailments. The Draghi report suffers from none thereof. The man obviously knows what he wants to say and doesn't mince his words. The report is refreshingly low-bullshit, puts fingers in obvious wounds and largely avoids euphemisms.
This, in one headline, explains why the EU makes sense.
And, given how these standards came about, why the European Parliament is much more important for our daily lives than we often realize (If you don’t know yet who
@JanAlbrecht
is, time to find out).
It's a plea for the EU to actually have an industrial strategy and to mean it this time. The report does not shy away from saying where this has been lacking so far, e.g. in the automotive industry or when it comes to many clean technologies.
Die Behauptung von
@c_lindner
, die niedrigen EZB-Leitzinsen lägen in der hohen Verschuldung der Mitgliedstaaten begründet, wird nicht richtiger, wenn man sie ständig wiederholt. Die EZB hat seit Jahren ihr Inflationsziel nicht erreicht. Deshalb sind die Zinsen niedrig.
That statement by
@eucopresident
(on Facebook of all places) is wild: He is mostly upset that people are angry at him, repeatedly refers to the Commission President as "Ursula" and tries to prove his feminist credentials by the fact that his successor as PM was a woman.
The beauty of the 🇩🇪🇫🇷 proposal is its simple basic functioning. It boils the discussion down to the main question: Do we allow the EU to go into debt so that it can spend where it is most needed? That was the relevant political question all along, and it is now on the table.
The German Constitutional Court clears the way for the Recovery Instrument to go ahead. The decision is not an unconditional green light. But it is a pragmatic ruling that takes the economic consequences of a delay explicitly into account.
Here is what it says:
Such reports tend to be boring to read: Because the authors are mincing their words, because of too many cooks in the kitchen, because the "outside expert" is not really allowed to say what they want or do not know what they want to say.
It's a plea for putting together industrial and trade policy and giving both a strategic direction. Spot on. It even uses dirty words like "local content rules" without falling down on the protectionist side of the fence.
🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷 go bold: 500 billion for additional EU spending, borrowed in the markets. No loans. No wizardry. This is a big step. Now of course both sides need to go all in and convince the others to make it happen.
Thread:
German-French Paper:“The Recovery Fund of 500 bn Euro will provide EU budgetary expenditure for the most affected sectors and regions on the basis of EU budget programmes.“ Will be „integrated in the own resource decision, with a clearly specified volume and expiry”
@derspiegel
In den
@tagesthemen
erzählt der Korrespondent aus Karlsruhe einfach unwidersprochen, die EZB würde „deutsches Steuergeld“ für Anleihenkäufe verwenden. Das ist natürlich Quatsch - aber dann wundern sich hinterher alle wieder, dass die EU-Institutionen einen schlechten Ruf haben.
It's also a plea for more Europe in crucial economic policy areas - but not as an end in itself or to reach ever-closer-union, but because it makes economic sense. There are a lot of policy proposals in the report that merit detailed analysis - but none of them seem outlandish.
It is good that the report first makes a clear case for why more investment is needed before it talks about financing. Draghi calls - rightfully - for a substantial reform of the EU budget and for a reorientation along the strategic priorities that need to be agreed.
One thing should be made very clear now: You cannot enjoy the benefits of EU membership while openly and intentionally burning down the EU legal order.
Here comes the verdict: the Polish Constitutional Tribunal finds art. 1 TEU and art. 19 TEU incompatible with the Polish Constitution with regards to Polish courts giving primacy to EU law and being able to disregard Polish Constitution and laws. (52/wtm)
Die Kanzlerin sagt, es gehe im Streit mit 🇵🇱 um unterschiedliche Vorstellungen zur Zukunft der 🇪🇺. Das ist Quatsch: Es geht darum, ob man zu Hause den Rechtsstaat abschaffen kann, wenn man EU-Mitglied ist. Das darf weder in der EU-Zukunftskonferenz noch sonstwo verhandelbar sein.
Energiepreise, Rechtsstaatlichkeit, Handel und Migration – Kanzlerin
#Merkel
vor dem Treffen des Europäischen Rates in Brüssel zu den anstehenden Themen
#EUCO
I am also sceptical that the competitiveness council has the right level for this. Ideally, 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷 would now take the lead and take it to the next level, initate the debate and carry it forward. I don't see that yet either, but it would be worth the effort.
If a member of the European Council bluntly smears a journalist, in this case
@liliebayer
, for criticial reporting, this should not go unanswered by his peers. Time to speak up for
@eucopresident
and colleagues. This should be an easy one.
Well,
@liliebayer
was instructed not to tell the truth, so she quoted mainly “unknown” sources from the extreme left and purposely neglected sources with names and integrity. That’s
@POLITICOEurope
, unfortunately. Laying for living.
Draghi hat seinen Bericht zur Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Europas vorgelegt - und natürlich konzentriert sich die Diskussion in 🇩🇪 sofort auf die Frage neue EU-Schulden ja/nein/vielleicht.
Warum das ein Fehler und dieser Bericht eine große Chance auch aus Berliner Perspektive ist:
Die Mitgliedstaaten haben im
#EUCO
gestern Tatsachen geschaffen - das Parlament hat nun im Grunde nur noch drei Möglichkeiten: Konstruktive Revolte, Destruktion oder Konzentration auf Inhalte.
Thread:
On Saturday, the
@CDU
will choose its new party leader. What will we learn from the choice for the CDU's - and probably by extension 🇩🇪's - future approach to 🇪🇺?
Not that much: Whoever wins will inherit a party that is fundamentally unsure what to make of Europe.
Thread:
On 🇪🇺,
@OlafScholz
says member states with higher debt levels should have the flexibility to do the necessary fiscal measures and should get European backing for this. „You can count on 🇩🇪.“
Yes, the Karlsruhe judgment was a disaster on many levels. But here, a member state government uses its constitutional court to set the EU legal order on fire in order to pressure Brussels. Politically, this is not remotely the same ballgame. Don't fall for the comparison.
On Tuesday, the
@BVerfG
, the 🇩🇪 Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, will issue its final verdict on the ECB‘s QE programme (PSPP).
Here is why that (unfortunately) could matter a great deal:
Wirtschaftsexperte
@_FriedrichMerz
hat in Mikro I nicht so richtig zugehört. Preiselastizität von 0,15-0,2 heißt schlicht, dass selbst bei ordentlichen Preiserhöhungen weiter fast dieselben Mengen nachgefragt werden. Das hat mit dem, was er hier sagen will, leider nichts zu tun.
Das 🇪🇺-Wiederaufbauinstrument schrumpft gefährlich. Der Gipfel erleidet einen Rückfall in graue Einstimmigkeitsvorzeiten. Und manche Länder haben den Ernst der Lage immer noch nicht verstanden.
Ein (langer) Thread zum
#EUCO
-Verhandlungsstand:
It is lack of mutual trust and of agreement on substance. That is why the first part of the report is so good: It makes a convincing case that now needs to be discussed politically. I am fairly convinced that if we agree what we want, we can get very far in implementing it as is.
So the idea keeps coming back that we could just put the Recovery Instrument outside the EU framework and into an intergovernmental treaty and hence fool 🇭🇺🇵🇱. Terrible idea on many fronts - and also not necessary.
Thread:
6/ All in all, I find this a very reasonable outcome.
#Eurogroup
for once mildly beating expectations. Now
#EUCO
has to live up to the task too and provide solid guidance for ministers to do their job and hash out the details of the recovery fund. Still a long way to go.
So, the eternal West-Wing question is now: What's next? We need a discussion on whether Draghi is right and whether we collectively buy the argument that we need a real plan and a real strategy. I am sceptical that the dysfunctional EuCo is the right place for this.
I don't see how the Commission and a qualified majority of member states can greenlight the Polish plan to get recovery instrument money as long as this ruling stands. My sense is: This will backfire big time.
Loving the message coherence in Brussels where
@vonderleyen
tweets about vaccines and
@eucopresident
gives a press conference about terrorism at the same time when, to the complete surprise of everyone, EP and Council reach a deal on the EU finances for the next seven years.
Important point by
@EmmanuelMacron
that wasn't in the
@FT
text: Guarantees and short-term work schemes are essentially state aid for companies - but some countries cannot afford the same amounts as others. This is a massive distortion of the single market.
The 🇩🇪 presidency proposes to have the Council instead of the
@EU_Commission
approve national Recovery and Resilience Plans to unlock RRF money; 🇳🇱 even wants unanimity for this and cites the ESM as an example (h/t
@florianeder
).
Here is why this is a really dumb idea:
The paper is so intellectually lazy that it’s hard to assume they believe in it themselves. More loans do not solve any problem. Finding a macroeconomically relevant sum by cutting the MFF elsewhere is not feasible. This is a move to drive up the price, not a policy alternative.
Gegenvorschlag ua aus Österreich und den Niederlanden zu
#Merkron
: Wiederaufbaufonds soll „günstige Kredite“ vergeben, „keinerlei Vergemeinschaftung von Schulden“. Rabatte im EU-Budget sollen bleiben (davon profitiert auch Deutschland)
@derspiegel
#coronavirus
2/ There will be an EU program to give cheap loans to member states without conditionality called SURE. What matters: EU will be allowed to borrow in the markets and hand the funds to member states. This is an important political step that seemed totally out of reach 4 weeks ago.
The added value of the Draghi report is the detailed case for a joint, coherent industrial policy strategy, not the part on common debt. The relevant reaction by member states is whether they buy the case or refute it and not the repetition of long-held positions on common debt.
5/ Damit untergräbt man die Legitimität der Institution und verhindert gleichzeitig eine echte Debatte über den richtigen Weg nach vorne: Man kann mit Merz nicht in einen Ideenwettstreit treten, denn es gibt ja keine eigene Idee. Was bleibt, ist Schaden bei den Institutionen.
Kinder können nicht auf Schuldenbergen spielen.
@Die_Gruenen
wollen die
#Schuldenbremse
schleifen und legen die Axt an Generationengerechtigkeit & Nachhaltigkeit an. Wir sollten begriffen haben: Solide Finanzen sichern Handlungsfähigkeit in der Krise.
Where the report becomes less convincing is in two areas: First, it argues that we need a safe asset (i.e. more EU debt) because that's good for financial market functioning. There, the central banker got carried away a bit. If there is ever to be more EU debt, it will be because
An underappreciated fact is that the new ORD also contains the new MFF rebates for 🇳🇱🇦🇹🇸🇪🇩🇰🇩🇪. And while the old ORD remains in force, the rebates for 🇳🇱🇩🇰🇸🇪🇩🇪 expire by end-2020; the one for 🇦🇹 already has. So 🇭🇺🇵🇱 are not only pissing off the big RI recipients, but everyone.
there is a good case for the spending to be financed by this debt - and because all other sources of financing are not available.
Second, the governance part is underdeveloped: In econ policy, the problem is not unanimity or lack of processes as the report seems to suggest.
Maybe we can now focus less on the last comma of a legally meaningless declaration and more on the fact that a compromise will actually unlock the first-ever multi-billion debt-financed EU expenditure programme that will revolutionize the way EU finances work forever?
Wolfgang Schäuble is not speaking for the German government. He's just speaking for himself. A disgruntled veteran of the euro crisis who apparently has not been able to stomach the fact that even his own party has agreed to real solidarity in this crisis.
The interview shows again a pretty striking difference between Merkel and Macron on Europe: Macron has a pretty coherent strategy but time and again shows that he is a lousy tactician. Merkel rarely ever makes tactical mistakes but does not seem to have an overarching strategy.
The
@EU_Commission
just published docs that again show why the Recovery Instrument will end the European Semester as we know it. Instead, the Recovery and Resilience Plans will become the central steering document and will politicise everything.
Thread:
Das Dino-Papier zur "Schuldenpolitik" (ein Absatz zu 🇩🇪, der Rest zu 🇪🇺) ist ein wunderbares Beispiel für jene Mischung aus Falschbehauptungen und resignierter Inhaltsleere, die seit Jahren zu oft die deutsche Eurodebatte prägen.
Eine Übersicht:
12/ Brussels-Bashing is as old as time und oft nicht völlig unberechtigt. Aber wenn man anfängt, "Brüssel" Tote in die Schuhe zu schieben, macht man damit Vertrauen in der Bevölkerung in die EU kaputt, das man nie wieder zurückbekommt - und am Ende freut sich die AfD.
1/ Merkel all of a sudden very concrete on EMU:
- ESM to intergovernmentally organized EMF with new credit line for shorter-term lending
- with „instruments to reestablish debt sustainability“ (read debt restructuring)
- should build expertise to continuously evaluate countries
I have nothing against rebates per se, but the increases in the nego box seem excessive (increases 2021 vs 2020):
🇩🇪 +12%
🇳🇱 +25%
🇸🇪 +62%
🇩🇰 +120%
🇦🇹 +274%
The rest will pay for that through higher contributions as they will see their share of the EU budget increase.
The German Constitutional Court today pulled back from the brink and put the case on the ECB's PSPP programme finally to rest. The saga ends with a lot of damage on all sides and a number of open questions.
A first take:
With
@GrundSebastian
and
@COdendahl
we have tried to build an instrument to share the fiscal costs of this crisis that is legally sound, economically sensible and institutionally feasible: The Pandemic Solidarity Instrument.
Tl;dr:
So
#EuCo
avoids giving any guidance on the recovery fund - not on size, not on funding, not on expenditure. Instead, over to
@vonderleyen
to make proposals - who already makes clear that she will fold this into the MFF debate. Good that we lost two weeks for this non-outcome.
Merkel in press conference with
@giuseppeconteIT
: NextGenerationEU has to be "something big and extraordinary" and should not be trimmed down ("darf nicht verzwergt werden"). She underlines that this has a strong political dimension beyond the numbers.
She means it this time.
The cuts demanded by the champions of modernization result in a hefty reduction of the EU pot to boost innovation and research. That’s really all you need to know about priorities. (And yes, other countries are no better. But they don’t claim to be so focused on competitiveness.)
Incoming
@bverfg
Justice Astrid Wallrabenstein (replacing Voßkuhle) tells
@faznet
that formal new
@ecb
Governing Council decision might not be necessary to satisfy Karlsruhe and that in general the Grundgesetz could well leave space for further integration.
Very good news for 🇪🇺.
So here we have some first details of the Commission proposal. It is a mix of instruments. And it looks fairly promising - heavy on actual expenditure, not too reliant on wizardry and pumped-up numbers.
Thread:
A number of German economists call - in FAZ of all places - for a 🇪🇺 economic response to the crisis and inter alia for 1000bn in one-off Eurobonds. Good indication that the econ mainstream in 🇩🇪 has shifted. Question now: Will the position of the chancellor shift as well?
1/ Es geht mit dem klassischen Motiv los, dass man höllisch aufpassen muss, den faulen Südeuropäern (hier stv 🇮🇹🇪🇸) nicht ihr Hallodritum zu finanzieren. Dass gerade diese Länder die ambitioniertesten Pläne zur Verwendung der EU-Gelder vorgelegt haben, bleibt natürlich unerwähnt.
Now it’s getting bananas. Cutting the RRF essentially in half would mean that even large countries like 🇮🇹 barely get 30 bn over several years. And taking another 190bn out of the already-squeezed MFF would make it a joke way below pre-Brexit levels.
This is just destructive.
#Euco
seems destined for another long night as Frugals demand substantial cuts to grants in the recovery fund to the tune of around €170bn. Would reduce grants down to €155bn from current €325bn. Latest via
@ft
Four months ago, a symbolic Eurozone budget of 12 bn for seven years was contentious. Now we are no longer talking about the 'if' but about the 'how' of a triple-digit billion debt-financed Recovery Instrument.
Of course open issues remain; but let's remember where we came from.
8/ Trotzdem täte die Kommission, gerade in Gestalt ihrer Präsidentin, sehr gut daran, hier jetzt mal offensiv zu kommunizieren. Es war richtig, dass sich die Mitgliedstaaten im Binnenmarkt keinen Impfstoffwettbewerb geleistet haben. Das kann und sollte man auch weiter so sagen.
What’s on the
#EUCO
table is already very weak. If some countries are just not in the mood for a deal this weekend, it might be better to call it a day and to clearly say why.
Then all can go home and think hard for a week if they want to be blamed for 🇪🇺 failing in this crisis.
Tomorrow, 🇩🇪 will enter full campaign mode with a new CDU head. A new govt will be in place just it time for the campaign in 🇫🇷 to start. So basically we can all reconvene in ~17 months to see where the two elections have left us for any meaninful move on 🇪🇺. Fun times ahead.
Just to put this into context: This means additional EU expenditure in 🇮🇹 worth roughly 5% of GDP, presumably over a fairly short time horizon. 🇪🇺 becomes a macro player.
Die 🇪🇺-Kommission hat geliefert und aus der 🇩🇪🇫🇷-Initiative ein Gesetzespaket gebaut, das sich sehen lassen kann. Die EU bekommt ein Wiederaufbauinstrument, das den Namen verdient. Erstmals in ihrer Geschichte kann die EU makroökonomisch einen Unterschied machen.
Thread:
8/ Und so ist es leider immer wieder: Es fehlt da völlig eine positive Vision, was man mit der Eurozone anfangen will. Abwickeln geht nicht, Maastricht hat nicht funktioniert, Status Quo ist auch nicht gut - aber was an dessen Stelle treten soll, ist auch nicht klar.
Real 🇪🇺 solidarity with 🇬🇷 would of course mean to finally agree on a rapid and reliable system to distribute those who arrive so that a few thousand additional arrivals cannot put the infrastructure there under existential strain. We had five years to do this.
Support for Greek efforts to protect the European borders. Closely monitoring the situation on the ground.
I will be visiting the Greek-Turkish border on Tuesday with
@PrimeministerGR
Mitsotakis.
The resignation of
@mariofcenteno
as 🇵🇹 finance minister certainly means his time as Eurogroup president is also up. It has not been a smashing success, to say the least. This also ends a chapter that made the EG more and more irrelevant. So what's next?
Thread:
On a very basic level, shifting blame for a fuckup on
@VDombrovskis
, Michael Hager and
@WeyandSabine
instead of assuming political responsibility for everything that happens in your organisation does not look like good management. Nor like good politics.
Important and good: Merkel says no country questioned the legal construction behind the Recovery Instrument. This is the necessary condition to come to an agreement in July.
4/ Aber dabei gilt: Alle Entscheidungsträger*innen in Berlin und auch in München wussten, was die Strategie in Bezug auf die Liefermengen war. Die Zahlen waren seit Monaten bekannt. Wer jetzt empört so tut, als habe er von nichts gewusst, hat entweder gepennt oder lügt.
The one thing the EU institutions can and should do now is to hold the line. 🇭🇺 and 🇵🇱 are blackmailing everyone and should be treated as such. This means in particular that there cannot be any agreements on spending programmes.
Thread:
@Pietbull47
Die Erde ist auch nicht flach, nur weil das manche behaupten, und das von Ihnen benutzte Wort ist eine rassistische Beleidigung. Und wenn Sie es trotzdem benutzen, macht Sie das zum Rassisten. Man kann halt nicht rassistisch beleidigen und gleichzeitig kein Rassist sein wollen.
Der Bundestagspräsident, der fast den Euro gesprengt hätte, belehrt den italienischen Premier, der ihn zusammengehalten hat, zu guter Finanzpolitik. Mit dieser Denke hätte es auch in der Pandemie keine Solidarität gegeben. Zeigt: Gut, dass das over isch.
"Instead of recording a new album, we have decided to issue the n-th edition of our Best Of collection."
- The Frugal Four
The utter refusal to engage intellectually with the problem at hand is still stunning. Nobody needs more loans. Everyones knows it.
4/ Er bietet keinerlei Lösung jenseits des - von ihm als Trickserei kritisierten - Status Quo an. Diese Haltung ist sehr bequem: Man kann die Kommission als Trickserin verdammen und sich gleichzeitig darauf verlassen, dass sie ökonomisch das schlimmste verhindern wird.
Is klar. Weil die SPD ein paar Tage die Backen aufgeblasen und nach Brüssel gefeuert hat, ist die Fabrik in Marburg fertig geworden. Wenn's wirklich so einfach wäre, hätte man das ja mal im November machen können.
3/ There is agreement to set up a "recovery fund". This means there is now agreement that the package so far on the table (EIB/ESM/SURE) will not be enough and we need some form of burden sharing. This is very good news. The language is Brussels poetry with some important clues:
7/ In diesem Fall wird es noch schräger: Merz suggeriert, der Ausgang der Bundestagswahl habe eine direkte Auswirkung auf die EZB-Geldpolitik. Da hat einer wohl völlig den Glauben an Zentralbankunabhängigkeit verloren. Aus dieser Erkenntnis folgt allerdings wieder: nichts.
Sehr schade, dass die
@CDU
auf den letzten Metern der Versuchung nicht widerstehen kann, antieuropäische Reflexe zu bedienen, um noch ein paar Stimmen zu mobilisieren.
Schön und treffend die Nachfrage "Meinen Sie das ernst?"
Let me check: Yes, taking the side of journalists that are bullied by a wannabe autocrat is the right thing to do.
Also: Don't you have something better to do than tweeting at think tankers? Like governing a country?
Reality kicks in: Merkel‘s head of chancellery
@HBraun
calls in
@handelsblatt
for a change in the German constitution to allow temporary deviations from the debt brake in the coming years. Argues it is better than repeatedly suspending it. Unclear if agreed with rest of
@cdu
.