Louis Jacobson
@loujacobson
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@PolitiFact chief corr; columnist-handicapper @Center4Politics @usnews ; sr author @The_Almanac of Am Pol; @wvumediacollege @BonasJSchool ; ex-Roll Call, Nat Jour
Washington, D.C.
Joined May 2010
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In Dauphin Co., Pa. (Harrisburg), almost all votes are counted and Biden leads, 53-45. In 2016, Clinton won it 49-46.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Raphael Warnock may love puppies. But the beagle in Warnock' popular ads from 2020 was borrowed.
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668
The numbers in Miami-Dade are not good for Biden. But he's up by 10 points in Duvaaaaaal (Jacksonville) with an estimated 75% of the vote counted. In 2016, Trump won it narrowly.
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Fun fact: By my count, Joe Biden flipped four Kent Counties Trump won in 2016. Delaware, Maryland, Michigan, and Rhode Island.
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Still early in PA, but FWIW, in Lackawanna Co. (Scranton, Biden's ancestral home), Biden is leading Trump by 9. Clinton beat Trump by 3.5 points in 2016. Also, with most votes counted, Biden's raw votes in the county increased from 51,000 to 61,000.
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My latest
@politifact
: A video shows Obama saying surrender to 'an all-powerful sovereign.' It's fake. Pants on Fire!
http://t.co/q0Jmp472XD
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Trump's boast about job gains refer to month-over-month employment increases during the pandemic. While those increases were the highest in history, they are still well short of where employment stood prior to the pandemic.
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My latest
@politifact
: No, the Nazi platform did not echo the Democratic platform, as Donald Trump Jr. said. Pants on Fire.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Refereeing Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren on public support for Medicare for All. Buttigieg is correct that an opt-in for Medicare is more popular than requiring people to shift from private coverage to Medicare.
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In Idaho AG race, former Rep. Raul Labrador (R) is only ahead 51%-49% with 22% counted. Long way to go. A number of key establishment Republicans endorsed Democrat Tom Arkoosh in this race.
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Newly relevant again: Trump's Pants on Fire that millions of illegal votes cost him popular vote win via
@PolitiFact
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My latest
@politifact
: No, Coretta Scott King didn't thank Jeff Sessions in a video clip. Pants on Fire
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My latest in
@LarrySabato
's Crystal Ball
@Center4Politics
: Just three demographic factors (% white, % non-college educated, % rural) explain 80% of state-by-state presidential voting results in 2020.
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My latest state legislature handicapping for
@CookPolitical
: Eight chambers shift towards the Democrats, along with one towards the Republicans. ($)
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My latest state legislative handicapping for
@CookPolitical
: Eight chambers shift towards the Democrats, six of them currently held by the GOP. ($)
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In Minnesota, a very close state in 2016, is currently at a double digit lead for Biden, with 80% or so counted.
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Some personal news: PolitiFact has been kind enough to promote me to the newly created position of chief correspondent. Thanks
@politifact
and
@Poynter
!
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.
@Wonkblog
kindly hat-tips my check of gun deaths since '68 being > than all US war deaths.
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My latest
@politifact
video fact-check: Did Christine Blasey Ford say she called a friend on her cell phone after the alleged attack in 1982 (when cell phones hadn't even been introduced yet)? No, she never said that. Pants on Fire. Full fact-check here:
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In Summit Co., Ohio (Akron), with 50-something percent counted, Biden is up by 39 points. Clinton won it by only 9 points in 2016.
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My latest
@politifact
: President Trump said he signed the first military pay raise in 10 years. Nope. Pants on Fire.
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My latest
@politifact
: After U.S. tariffs were announced today, Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb. said, "We’ve been down this road before—blanket protectionism is a big part of why America had a Great Depression." He's right -- just listen to Ben Stein.
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I'm at West Virginia University for
@PolitiFact
this week to teach students how to fact-check for a new PolitiFact West Virginia. We'll all be fact-checking President Trump's rally in Charleston tonight ... which should be interesting given today's news events.
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We've updated our report on POTUS' statement on terrorism coverage to include WH list. It stays Pants on Fire.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: No, the Senate bill negotiated by Sens. Manchin and Schumer won’t strip $300 billion from Medicare, as an ad claims.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Bill Cassidy offers misleading defense of health bill spending in face-off with Jimmy Kimmel.
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Some personal news: I am excited to announce that my state politics column, which had been published by
@governing
magazine from 2010 to 2019, will survive Governing’s recent closure.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Did a funeral home use a truck to advertise the message "Don't get vaccinated." The viral photos are real, but it was an ad agency, not a funeral home, behind the campaign.
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In NC, with 80-something percent counted, Wake Co. (Raleigh) has Biden winning by 32 points. Clinton won by 20 in 2016. And Biden has so far pulled 50,000 more votes in the county.
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Biden up by only a half percentage in Ohio. Still a lot of vote out in Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Hamilton (CIncinnati), and Lucas (Toledo), where Biden is doing well.
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Colin Allred addressing the Texas delegation breakfast now in Chicago
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My latest
@politifact
: Did Donald Trump lose a trade war he started, as Joe Biden says? This claim in an ad rates Mostly True.
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With 43% in, NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), a major GOP target in her reelection, is only 3.5 points behind Sen. Chuck Schumer's pace, leading Republican Lee Zeldin, 61%-39%. Schumer's race is already called, but Hochul's isn't. Could just be a matter of time.
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Here's some more data from the
@Redistrict
/
@CookPolitical
Popular Vote tracker. In red non-battleground states, Biden gained between 1 and 5.4 points in margin in every state except for Arkansas. (This excludes states with significant ballots uncounted).
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My latest
@politifact
: President Trump was wrong when he tweeted that Harry Reid was 'thrown out' of office. Pants on Fire. cc:
@RalstonReports
@pkcapitol
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The
@PolitiFact
D.C. team preparing to fact check tonight’s presidential debate (others not pictured here are working from around the U.S. and the world!)
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My latest
@PolitiFact
w/
@AmySherman1
: Nikki Haley said that having "biological boys … in their locker rooms” is a reason why “a third of our teenage girls seriously contemplated suicide last year." False.
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In Waterloo, Klobuchar says that in her home state of Minnesota, you can see Canada from our porch. She quickly says that to stay in good stead with
@PolitiFact
, “It’s a metaphor!”
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Is President Trump right that gas prices are now lowest in over 10 years? Mostly False
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: No, Stacey Abrams didn’t support the baseball All-Star game boycott of Atlanta, despite what a leading Georgia Republican said.
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My latest column for
@LarrySabato
's Crystal Ball at
@Center4Politics
: Comparing the parties' Senate vulnerability in 2020, 2022, and 2024. Democrats have an edge for '22, before a big GOP edge in '24.
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That would be this one:
Among other things: Kyl is guy who said abortions are "well over 90% of what Planned Parenthood does," then when confronted with fact that abortions are actually 3% of Planned Parenthood's services, his office said the remark "was not intended to be a factual statement"
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Republican Senate candidate Gary Black of Georgia said agriculture “is still the No. 1 sector of the economy” in his state. In reality, it's not even close -- and as the sitting agriculture secretary, Black should know.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Experts say Biden’s achievements are similar to recent presidents. But Democrats aren't touting them on the campaign trail. Here, we review what he's accomplished legislatively, not all of it well-remembered.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Donald Trump said the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has “been mostly empty” for decades. That's False.
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As I've written for
@LarrySabato
's Crystal Ball (), what's striking is NOT who the 10 most popular govs are. It's that EVERY SINGLE GOV is above water, and, if I'm counting right, only 2 (Reeves, R-MS & Kotek, D-OR) are even w/in 8 pts of being underwater
Vermont
@GovPhilScott
is America's most popular governor, according to our latest quarterly surveys.
78% of Vermont voters approve of Scott's job performance, while 14% disapprove.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: The group Citizens for Sanity is running an ad in the Georgia Senate race saying Biden and Democrats "send a fortune to Ukraine but nothing for our children." The actual ratio is more than 7:1 in favor of kids. Pants on Fire
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Did President Biden stop domestic oil drilling, as Herschel Walker tweeted? Hardly.
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@MattGlassman312
And only 6 monarchs going back to 1837, five if you don’t count Edward the abdicator. That’s 185 years.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Is the Black-white disparity in maternal mortality as big as Raphael Warnock said? Basically, yes.
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With close to half of the vote counted in Arizona, Dem candidates Kelly (Senate), Hobbs (Gov), Fontes (SOS) and Mayes (AG) are all in lockstep at about 57%. Not sure where it goes from here, but they could all rise or fall in unison.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: After the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told CNN that “most of these killers tend to be 18, 19 years old.” We say: Mostly True.
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.
@StefWKight
of
@axios
has produced some nice visualizations showing the state of play in state legislatures. Thanks for citing my handicapping for
@LarrySabato
's Crystal Ball
@Center4Politics
. and
1
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My latest
@politifact
: Did African-American incarceration drop 65% under Amy Klobuchar, as she told
@jaketapper
? By one measurement (jails) yes, by another (prisons) no.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: In his marathon House floor speech, GOP leader Kevin McCarthy made dubious claims about Build Back Better bill.
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Long-serving Iowa AG Tom Miller (D) now trailing by 4 points, with more than 3/4 of votes counted. GOP flip.
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A hat-tip to
@Taniel
, who has his finger on the pulse of contests even further down the ballot than those I write about: The hugely important local sheriff and DA elections. See his detailed work at and
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: From the Biden Promise Tracker: Biden orders $10,000 to $20,000 in student loan debt forgiveness. Not everything he'd promised, but a major step nonetheless. Rating: Compromise.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Mike Pence repeats false claim that Barack Obama started migrant family separations.
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NEW: President Trump said Joe Biden can only win by a 'rigged election.' As
@AmySherman1
& I explain, that's wrong in several ways.
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My latest
@politifact
: Our guide to finding good information on Election Night, including a curated Twitter list to follow, poll closing times, and the outlooks for early and late state calls.
1
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My latest
@usnews
: Previewing the California gubernatorial recall: What you need to know.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., "Every study has shown” that when work requirements are tied to federal safety-net programs, “it puts more people to work.” Mostly False.
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The indispensable
@Taniel
has just published a rundown on the DA, sheriff, and mayoral elections this spring and fall, with a special emphasis on their impact on criminal justice.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: No, a Democratic bill didn’t 'slash' Medicare spending. Instead, it would get the same drugs, more cheaply.
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When Anita Hill testified in 1991, polls consistently showed that most Americans believed Clarence Thomas, not Hill. Sometimes the margins were quite large. 1/2
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@KevinMKruse
Unlike the Times fact-check, ours says Half True based largely on the reality that over this 80-year period, U.S. population rose by 150%, making % increase a better measure. 2022 was best % increase since 1979, but 11th best since 1940. Seems relevant.
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Is 95% of gun violence occurring in "inner cities," as a GOP figure said recently on CNN? No. We ran the numbers.
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My latest
@politifact
: The train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, is, sadly, just the latest serious industrial accident in the U.S. Here's a list of dozens of incidents that either left workers dead and injured or caused environmental harm.
3
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Why polling about abortion hides the true complexity of what Americans think.
1
6
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The good folks at
@LarrySabato
's Crystal Ball
@Center4Politics
have updated and re-released my analysis from March about the possible political impacts of a Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe. You can find it here:
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My latest
@CookPolitical
: An updated look at handicapping the 2020 attorney general elections, including a few rating shifts. ($)
0
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Well this is cool: Jaren English, one of my
@StBonaventure
students producing articles for
@PolitiFact
(this one, so far: ), is also a Div I basketball player, as well as a member of the
@A10MBB
All-Academic Team. Congrats Jaren!
2
10
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My latest
@PolitiFact
: Former VP Mike Pence told an NRA gathering that "in the 1960s, liberals emptied our psych wards." That ignores a whole lot of conservatives who played a role, notably Ronald Reagan, both as California governor and president.
2
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36
With Tim Walz already called the winner as Minnesota governor, AG Keith Ellison (D) is holding on too, 53%-47%. Dem lead in SOS race is even bigger.
1
9
34
My latest
@PolitiFact
: No, Maxine Waters did not say she would impeach Donald Trump if she were elected president.
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@BruneElections
It's already most of the way there. Davidson Co. (Nashville) gave the no-chance Democratic candidate for governor against a GOP incumbent 63% of the vote in 2022. Dane Co. (Madison) gave the Democratic incumbent 79%.
0
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@PolitiFact
Note to
#ElectionTwitter
:
@NilesGApol
@SenhorRaposa
@grace_panetta
@JMilesColeman
are among those who are on our curated Twitter list
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3
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@DrewSav
Remember the old Washington line -- that the most dangerous place to be is between Chuck Schumer and a TV camera....
0
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My latest for
@LarrySabato
's Crystal Ball: "How Democrats Are Losing the War for Counties
Tracking 20 Years of County-Level Presidential Election changes."
5
16
33
Love how Election Twitter is using my methodology and applying it to the state level!
@LarrySabato
@kkondik
@JMilesColeman
New Substack article is out. I used the formula
@loujacobson
used to rank the states to rank Maryland's counties in terms of how likely each is to vote Democratic or Republican.
0
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Trump hasn't begun his appearance at
@NABJ
yet, but our
@PolitiFact
live blog is up. While you wait, I looked at a couple prebuttal claims from the Harris campaign; posted here.
5
18
34
My latest
@PolitiFact
: Our first ever fact-check of George Santos, telling Piers Morgan, “I never claimed to be Jewish.” Pants on Fire!
5
7
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My latest
@CookPolitical
: With the post-2020 round of redistricting inching closer, I looked at how the post-2010 maps fared in all 50 states, measured by competitive House races during the decade. Now in front of the paywall.
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My latest
@TB_Times
: In advance of his expected speech tonight at the Democratic convention in Chicago, I profiled 27-year-old Gen Z’er Maxwell Frost and his whirlwind week at the DNC.
0
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My latest
@politifact
w/
@AmySherman1
: Get ready for a REALLY different Election Night in November, with our reader's guide to watching the returns roll in ... slowly.
3
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My latest
@PolitiFact
video fact check, of Larry Kudlow, the National Economic Council director, saying that deficits are falling rapidly under President Trump. That rated Pants on Fire.
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