Katsiaryna (Katie) Shmatsina
@kshmatsina
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“Your national security threat” as seen in @lawfare • Connecting the dots • #Belarus #Russia & world • co-host @darthputinpod •
Washington, DC
Joined August 2015
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This article describes some of the effects of having Russian military in large numbers in Belarus. TLDR: It's not pretty, for the locals, the soldiers, the Russian army or Putin. 1/9
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So Putin has to decide to invade soon or go home before those of his soldiers who aren't incapacitated with COVID drink themselves to death after robbing his army blind leaving it unable to fight and stuck in a country they've trashed. 9/9
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COVID is ripping through the units stationed in Belarus. Official stats have case numbers breaking all records. Army units have *really* high numbers at all ranks & they infecting the locals. Many soldiers are treated in field hospitals (tents?) as local facilities are full 2/9
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RU military seems to be stripping whole areas of forest of firewood to heat camps & food,leaving little left for locals to heat their homes. Nature park areas are also damaged with the Russian army not cleaning up after themselves. Sounds like a problem Napoleon would've had.4/9
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Due to boredom, alcoholism, bad food & poor pay, soldiers are starting to sell/trade military equipment for goods. Diesel fuel & uniforms are common goods but the article reports even weapons can be acquired - all written off as "losses". 8/9
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Local residents are concerned with the behaviour of soldiers, who blow off steam & the article hints that soldiers from other parts of Russia (non-Slavic) are the centre of tensions. Nothing like racism to help an army unite. 3/9
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That soldiers drink is well known but the soldiers are taking it to extreme.Some nearly froze to death drunk on moonshine,they haven't got a lot of money to buy booze & property has started being stolen to pay for it.Drinking is "non-stop",dangerous moonshine being no barrier 6/9
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Videos of soldiers complaining of bad food have been uploaded to social media. If unable to barter for food (see next tweet), domestic animals vanish. Locals are too scared to report any of this to their authorities who probably can't do much to young men with guns anyway. 7/9
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An extended period of heavy vehicles in the area has damaged roads & other infrastructure. The article says the Russians don't care and that probably there isn't the money to repair what were new roads anyway. 5/9
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How to make sense of today’s Putin’s speech? This is probably the best illustration: I was approached by a major Belarusian media outlet to comment on it, but after viewing the Kremlin's stream, journalists decided not to write about it as there was not much new being said. 1/
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Will Lukashenka command troops to enter Ukraine if Putin asks to do so? The accuracy of such predictions is like gazing in a crystal bowl-it’s safer to rely on intel/security monitoring, watching the actual movement/preparations by BY army (or rather lack of it at the moment)1/
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RT & Sputnik accounts withheld. Guess they need a new motto: “We no longer exist to tell the stories we made up”
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Surprise for the Valentine’s Day: I’ve discovered I am on the database of “criminals” in Russia. I’m in good company, along with the PM of Estonia, U.S. Senators, and Belarusian pro-democratic opposition.
@mediazona_en
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In this piece for
@ForeignPolicy
@ak_mack
highlights the Belarusian perspective on the current crisis. My 2 ¢ are quoted in the article. A few more thoughts of mine below. 1/12🧵
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Here is my most recent, published by EU Observer, on Belarusians as the other victims of Putin's war. TLDR: We tried to get rid of him but his savage crackdown worked & while we deeply regret Putin's invasion& want no part of it, please don't blame us. 1/
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TLDR: Today’s performance at the Kremlin was rather a gesture of desperation. However, the more vulnerable Russia feels, the more toxic it gets. This could include forcing Lukashenka to send troops to Ukraine and even further depriving Belarus of sovereignty. 2/
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We were recording the episode in the bunker, hence the amateur sound quality. The president is suspicious of technological progress developed by the evil West.
Along with
@kshmatsina
your Prez has started a podcast -“in the bunker with Darth”. First episode here. We talk about master strategy, why it’s all going to plan & how Katie is wanted in Russia & also Belarus.
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In this article,
@Michael_Lipin
talks about possible role of Belarus in further involvement in Russian aggression towards Ukraine. My two cents are also quoted there. In the thread below, I'm adding a few more thoughts. 1/14
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When Russians talk about "liberation" and "unification", I think about how Belarusian lands were "reunited" with the Russian empire in the XVIII century, how our language was forbidden, the Magdeburg law of cities’ self-governance was destroyed, and serfdom was introduced. 8/
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Minsk regional court, where I was sentenced to 10 years (in absentia) earlier this month, has now sentenced German citizen Rico Krieger to death. Little is known about him except that he worked for the Red Cross and faces charges including terrorism and espionage. 1/2
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Today's ceremony at the Kremlin palace would hardly persuade those fleeing from mobilization and those Russians who do not support the war. In a sense, it was preaching to the choir. 4/
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Kastus Kalinouski led the anti-Russian uprising in 1863. He was later executed in Vilnius by Russian governor Muraviov. Thousands deported to Siberia. We, Belarusians, remember that. And now the Kalinouski regiment unites Belarusian volunteers who fight on the Ukraine's side. 9/
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Obviously, Putin was selling to the domestic audience that there is meaning behind the war and that it brings some gains at the time of the army’s losses, embarrassment, and Ukraine’s counter-offensive. 3/
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For centuries, conscripts were forcefully separated from their families and served in the army for 25 years, and that many serf owners, who tortured and abused peasants, were honestly surprised: "oh, those people can have feelings just like us?" 7/
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One particular reference caught my attention: the accusation of the West of the existence of slavery throughout the course of history. In his memoirs, Kropotkin vividly portrays the nature of tsarism and serfdom in XIX century Russia, 6/
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It has been four years since the major protests of 2020 and the regime's crackdown that plunged Belarus into an unprecedented political crisis. Four years ago, I had to flee my home with one carry-on bag. I was lucky I got out safe.🧵
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2008, 2014, 2022, referendums, war...What could prevent Russia from declaring another referendum about Belarus? My take is that the more desperate the Kremlin gets in the war on Ukraine, the more likely they will do it-also to sell such a "victory" to the domestic audience.17/17.
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I recently wrote an op-ed about relations between
#Belarus
&
#Russia
in light of
#UkraineRussianWar
. TLDR: While BY democratic movement still exists, it's not 100% that if/when Putin loses, Belarus will be free. 1/13
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What I expected in this address was some rhetoric about the further course of war. He did mention that the U.S. was the only "evil" country that dared to use nuclear weapons (on Japan) and that "they created a precedent"-a statement open to interpretation. 5/
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As a Ph.D. researcher in critical geopolitics, I pay close attention to statements like "great liberating mission of our nation", antagonistic statements "us versus them", Bible references, portraying the enemy as a devil (well, Reagan and Bush did that too). 12/
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Update: I was sentenced to 10 years. I feel somewhat disappointed. I was hoping I'd get more. More details to follow.
In reality, we are being prosecuted for our opinions and our independent research. The question is: how many years will I get? Honestly, I'll be offended if I get less than 10. (2/2)
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Nicolas I led Russia into the Crimean War, having overestimated the readiness of the army and lost dramatically. Intellectuals of that time, those who voiced criticism of tsarism, preached for equality and and got into prison. Navalny today faces new criminal charges.10/
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However, recent developments show that Putin doesn't care for his own people, mobilizing those who don't have training or suffer from poor health conditions. Lack of public support doesn't stop him either. The same could be projected on Belarus, as Luka is a vassal of Moscow. 14/
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What does this mean for my home country, Belarus? Things are gloomy. Previously, the risks of Belarus’ full-scale involvement in Russia’s war on Ukraine were low due to the unpreparedness of the Belarusian army and a lack of public support. 13/
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This whole speech today was yet another grievance about the might of the U.S. and the liberal order. Yes, there is definitely room for debate about the flaws of the "unipolar moment" and how international multilateralism could be improved. 11/
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Prez did not express interest in commenting on his upcoming elegant victory in the elections.
Just dropped Episode 4 of the pod.
@kshmatsina
and I discuss Medvedev’s fashion & theatre, the Duma address and, best of all, the new book.
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Excited to launch my YouTube dedicated to
#Belarusian
politics in global context. So far the channel is in Russian. In the 1st episode, I explore what's left from BY foreign policy after 2020. TLDR: Not much. BY MFA is trying hard to develop ties with someone except for Moscow.1/
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I want to thank
@CardinalNewsVA
, particularly Dwayne Yancey, editor in chief, who wrote this piece. Thank you for giving my story a voice
Virginia Tech student Katsiaryna Shmatsina is one of 20 scholars on trial in absentia in Belarus. She's charged with plotting to overthrow the government.
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Ukrainian colleague asked to spread the info that Belarus likely to scale up military involvement after the constitutional referendum (Feb 27) under the false pretext that Ukraine attacked Belarus. *Info REQUIRES VERIFICATION* 1/4
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TLDR: This tread looks at the possibility of Belarus military involvement in Ukraine on Russian side. Short version, Luka knows it's unpopular, the Belarusian military isn't up to much but it may happen so they can do dirty work. 2/
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Lukashenka’s tour to Abkhasia looks like a trip by a Russian region governor, rather than the head of an independent state. Lukashenka is likely to face more pressure to place nuclear weapons alongside the expansion of the Russian army's military presence in Belarus. 15/
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What we know about Belarusian military's involvement in assisting the Russian invasion of Ukraine.🧵 TLDR, they're doing cyber attacks, offensive kinetic ops from Belarus & logistic support. 1/
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During the last decade, some claimed that Putin was seeking to create the USSR 2.0. Skeptics would smile at this. In particular, many Belarusian experts disbelieved that Moscow was serious about Union State integration. 16/
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Avoiding the Belarusian airspace for transit is reasonable. Banning flights coming from Belarus would further endanger those fleeing the regime’s prosecution. Minsk airport is almost the only getaway for Belarusians. Crossing the border via land is restricted since December 2020.
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Increasing involvement by Belarus in Putin's invasion of Ukraine has ofc been seen in the propaganda that is being broadcast in Belarus.TLDR, it's a mix of pseudo-academic, outright hysteria, pretense of humanitarian & an interesting development in Russia/Belarus union state.1/
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This🧵 is about the Russian military in Belarus & the ongoing "referendum" in Belarus & how those are related. TLDR: 🇷🇺 supposed to be leaving but they're staying & increasing in numbers, there are signs it's part of invading Ukraine but also to help Luka to cement power 1/14
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My latest for
@guardian
: The regime is in survival mode: they are determined to suppress discontent, even at the cost of spilling blood on the streets.
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Rehearsal for the pro-Lukashenka demonstration on Aug 16. I admire how people leak the info on things like that or record how the electoral commission members were trained to count the "right" numbers of ballots for Lukashenka.
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Evil Katie’s trial begins… 🇧🇾 regime has decreed that my trial, in absentia, will start on Friday.
20 of us, scholars and journalists, are accused of conspiring to attempt a coup. How flattering. Most of us didn't even know each other until we heard about the trial. (1/2)
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Kalinousky fighters claim that they fight for the independence of Belarus, now in Ukraine, and then will continue their fight in Belarus. They also claim that Belarus is under double occupation-by the Kremlin and by the Lukashenka regime as Moscow’s puppet. 7/
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The Kalinouski regiment is a group of Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine who stand against Russian aggression. The unit is named after Kastus Kalinouski, the leader of an anti-Russian uprising in Belarus in 1863. 6/
More on the Kalinouski regiment here:
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Some insiders comment that the BY army, at least partially, would join the Kalinouski side should they cross the Belarus-Ukraine border. And such projections invoke a lot of fear for Lukashenka. BY soldiers would also surrender to UA, as they lack motivation to fight for “Z”. 8/
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I can't reiterate enough that Belarusians took their cities back. For years an unauthorized gathering was unthinkable, dispersed by police, but even more so - people wouldn't dare to gather like this in the first place.
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In reality, we are being prosecuted for our opinions and our independent research. The question is: how many years will I get? Honestly, I'll be offended if I get less than 10. (2/2)
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Eternity 👹
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A new episode of
@DarthPutinPod
is out. This time we talk with Ben Wittes, who’s banned from Twitter, btw.
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As of Feb 24, there were rumours that BY army expressed dissent about involvement in war, saying that they wouldn't fight against UA neighbors. This cannot be verified, but I've personally heard it from multiple independent sources and I tend to rather trust them. 3/
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Last but not least, repression continues in Belarus. Among many others: (1)A student sentenced to 2.5 years in prison for informing telegram channels about Russian army movements on Belarusian soil. 13/
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Got a few requests from foreign media to clarify whether Lukashenka signalled readiness for a dialogue, following his meeting with political prisoners. Short answer: NO. That’s an attempt to distract the West and to divide the domestic protest. 1/
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This brings us to the shaky foundations of Luka’s legitimacy (and lack thereof since 2020). Lukashenka understands that if soldiers' coffins returned to Belarus, he would lose the support of his core electorate. 12/
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That is true. Multiple polls (including Chatham House, Prof. Vardamatski and several non-public surveys) show that Belarusians are against military involvement—even those who primarily consume BY state propaganda. 10/
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(2) Military expert Yahor Lebiadok, one of the few experts not in exile, faces criminal charges for his work, for providing independent analyses of security issues in the region. 14/14
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The head of the UA president's office, Andrii Yermak, stated that the risk of BY invasion is low because such an idea is unpopular among Belarusians. 9/
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apparently aiming to create at least one more brigade that would be capable of participating in morally questionable operations, including fighting against the Kalinouski regiment if "Kalinoucy" tried to enter BY territory. 5/
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What an interesting move on behalf of
#Belarus
authorities when they try to sell to international community that they're ready for a constitutional reform and encourage citizens to contribute to the reform discussion.
#Belarus
Anatol Labiedzka, prominent opposition politician and former head of the United Civil Party of Belarus, disappeared. His colleagues say he has been most certainly detained. He recently became
#Tsikhanouskaya
's representative for the work on the constitutional reform
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BY army, consisting mainly of conscripts, lacks the motivation and training to participate in offensive operations. However, Luka ordered to recruit more contractor soldiers by 2023, 4/
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Even those Belarusians who support status quo domestically, consume state TV propaganda and somewhat approve Russia’s war - even they fear that mobilization would be declared. 11/
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Join us on Patreon as
@DarthPutinKGB
and I discuss the new jobs for Shoigu and Patrushev. "Loyalty over competence" is the best label for this reshuffle. Tune in, comment, and ask questions for our next one-on-one!
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And the men in civilian clothes and police *asked* him to leave. That’s the most the regime can do: fight with their own population, and dance to the Moscow’ tune (Lenin’s monument in the background is quite symbolic).14/14
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"Russia will stop if Ukraine amends the constitution and declares its neutrality," Peskov said. How ironic is that, given that just now Luka 🇧🇾 crossed out the neutral status from the Constitution to accommodate Moscow’s interests & allow to station troops /possibly even nukes
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2) the more Russia suffers losses, the more likely they are to present "victories" to the domestic audience-potentially even by annexing Belarus (or rather to claim that Belarusian leadership "voluntarily gave up sovereignty for the sake of the glorious "Union State"). 6/
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To paraphrase the
@WashPostPR
slogan, hope for democracy dies in darkness. Without international attention, it is easier for autocrats like
#Lukashenka
to repress their country’s population and get away with it. 1/3
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TLDR: It’s speculative to predict whether Luka would join Putin’s war. However, if you wonder about BY regime’s dependence on Moscow & ability to resist it, look at how they give up tax sovereignty to integration demands in exchange for short-term gains to sustain the economy. 2/
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Also, Ukraine by now must have zero trust 🇷🇺🇧🇾 & be well aware that a delegation can be detained permanently, and that's a real risk to consider. 6/6
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@ExoTraveller
There was discontent in army right away, as the war started and BY was used as a launching pad for attacks. many feared mobilisation back in February and fled the country. At the same time repression apparatus is strong, regime could target the relatives of those who might rebel
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This sounds pretty straightforward, but I’ll emphasize: 1) Kremlin is past the rational calculus after the February 24 attack-now they’re driven by imperial fever and don’t care about costs; 5/
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There is no commentary from the German MFA, beyond the statement that he is receiving consular services. Is he an intelligence officer? Not unheard of. The exceptionally harsh sentence by the Minsk court signals Lukashenka's leverage for Western concessions. What could it be? 2/2
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BY army is not prepared for offensive operations, and the public opinion, even among those who sort of support the status quo, is against the mobilization. So for Luka, such a move would be highly unfavourable-but how could he say no to Putin’s demands? 4/
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I’m also available to comment on the situation on the ground .
More than 100 foreign journalists did not receive accreditations to the Belarus elections.
Here are some English-speaking experts on the ground you can reach for comment:
@HannaLiubakova
,
@kshmatsina
,
@AndreiYeliseyeu
,
@OlgaDryndova
,
@VJurkonis
You can always DM me, 24/7.
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Locals report that they hear explosions and shooting near Kamaryn , Belarusian village near the Ukrainian border. Similar reports from Khoiniki & Bragin (via
@belamova
). More about Russian military presence in Belarus :
This🧵 is about the Russian military in Belarus & the ongoing "referendum" in Belarus & how those are related. TLDR: 🇷🇺 supposed to be leaving but they're staying & increasing in numbers, there are signs it's part of invading Ukraine but also to help Luka to cement power 1/14
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This article reports that telegram channel of Belarusian military announced that 🇱🇹& 🇱🇻 representatives were invited to attend the military manoeuvres underway in Belarus. IMHO the tone of the report from the Belarus Military is the interesting part 1/5
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Public opinion polls (e.g. Belarus Analytical Workroom) consistently show that the majority of Belarusians are against the invasion, and 2/3 are against the usage of Belarusian territory and infrastructure by the Russian army. 2/12
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Minsk has been suggested as a place where Ukraine and Russia can negotiate. The reputation of the official Minsk is laughable, given its international isolation since 2020 post-election crisis. 5/
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Last but not least. The authorities took away the Red Church from the Catholic community—as a response to their criticism of the regime. Abbot Zavalniuk, who has been taking care of the Red Church for > 30 years, was praying at the church’s stairs today.13/
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My take is that the elites just want to live through this crisis and have an aspiration that Lukashenka’s rule is coming to an end, possibly catalyzed by this regional conflict, and that they just have to exercise strategic patience. 12/12
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Happens at the time when the Ministry of Defense warns the protesters that "army might respond" in case of violation of public order.
Belarus - the world’s most civilised protest movement?
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official Minsk’ rhetoric changes quickly: one day they blame the West for preparing a nuclear strike, a day before MFA Makei sought backchannel communication at the UN or in Brussels, asking to lift sanctions and yet again offering to release political prisoners in exchange.7/
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BY could also end up as a bargaining chip whereby Russia demands it stays in its orbit in exchange for ending the war. Great powers doing deals over the heads or smaller countries is exactly how Putin wants the "multi polar world" to operate. 3/
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As economists say, it’s "giving up tax sovereignty for two kopeykas." According to this agreement, Belarus cannot decide for itself such important aspects of tax policy as the establishment of VAT and excise tax rates (which make up the major part of the tax revenue budget). 11/
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Most of the Union State agreements exist only on paper for years, no matter what is said there-*until they don’t*. Thus, Minsk and Moscow discussed introducing a single currency back in the 2000s-and it didn’t materialize. 8/
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There has been much talk about BY forming joint regional troops with Russia.Well, it’s rather a routine move within the Union State framework-the draft was prepared before the Crimea bridge blast and confrontational rhetoric that caught media's attention.3/
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Belarus will have to share with Russia the information on what operations are performed by BY companies, what transactions legal entities conduct & with whom. You guess for yourself how this information could be used, if in the wrong hands, and what leverage it gives. 12/
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If anything, Russia’s decision to attack Ukraine might have been accelerated by the Belarusian pro-democratic protests. It's well known Putin fears color revolutions & sees CIA plots everywhere. 5/
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Also, the Kremlin very likely considered securing Putin’s 2024 future as the head of the Union State-but later dropped that option. 9/
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BY has a much better chance if Kremlin becomes democratic but that's both obvious & widely viewed as at best a medium term outcome. More likely is a weakened Russia lacks ability and/or will to keep Luka in power. 2/
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Russia has geopolitical appetites for the whole region, including Belarus, and at the same time, Lukashenka, obsessed with his own survival, is very suspicious about possible coups in the inner circle. 11/12
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Although 🇷🇺 would be quite happy to use Belarusian soldiers as cannon fodder to keep their own figures down. One thing we can conclude so far is that Lukashenka is excessively dependent on the Kremlin and therefore has little room to say no to Putin’s demands. 4/12
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In the long term, Belarus is trapped in Russia’s orbit. In the Kremlin’s rhetoric, the Belarusian nation has about the same right to exist as Ukraine does. 9/12
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If you wonder about BY regime's room for maneuvering with Russia, have a look at how Luka gives away tax sovereignty in exchange for short-term prospect to fill budget via oil refining industry profits: 10/
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