Kerberos007
@kerberos007
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To transform massive raw data into meaningful trading information which in turn enables one to build investment knowledge. This is for educational purposes only
no Discord & don't be scammed!
Joined May 2008
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%B(20,1.5) on $VIX Strategy update: BTFG still works like a charm
7 years of performance based on EOD entries only: (without Optimization)
Win rate = 94.23%
Loss rate = 5.77%
Profit Factor = 22.87
Average Days Held = 17.6 days
Max Win days = 198 days
Max Loss days = 12 days
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People DM me asking what it takes to be that top 5% successful day trader
I always refer to 5 dimension trading techniques, never published anywhere: Now you have it.
1st Dim: Price action 15M with volume - chart analysis, pattern recognition, trend analysis, major S/R levels
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if our beloved $SPX tanks 20-30% from here, I would post a looooong BTFD list 😉
stay tuned.
it is coming 🤣
The market is super over-valued, time to contemplate STFR some potential "Enron" stocks in coming weeks.
Worst 42 stocks ( >$10) with poor fundamentals & analysts average ratings:
mechanical screener. do you own DD.🧐
if you spot a "good" one to STFR, let us know.
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all walls update:🧲🧲🧲
Matcha-wall (not on chart 4315)
Kerb-wall (4125)
Great-wall (not on chart 4000)
Trump-wall (3950)
Cramer-fence (not on chart 3900)
Biden-fence (3850)
Mexican-wall (not on chart 3800)
Berlin-wall (3700)
Powell-wall (3400)
Doomsday-wall (not on chart 3200)
edit:
all walls:
Kerb-wall
Great-wall (not on chart 4000)
Trump-wall
Cramer-fence (not on chart 3900)
Biden-fence
Mexican-wall (not on chart 3800)
Berlin-wall
Powell-wall
Doomsday wall (not on chart 3200)
defined weeks/months ago. 👍🫖🫖🫖👍
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To the new generation of penny stock investors
WallStreetKids
Penny stock screener
criteria
stocks < $1
up 50+%
WSK lotto tickets to da Moon screener
Click 'like' if you want me to keep posting the penny screener with different criteria 🤣🧐
Is this legal? 🍻
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STFR >3975
actually, after seeing today's relentless short-squeeze non-stop
every down-tick got bought by short-covering, absolutely stunning
they might pump this until Dec FOMC
new STFR tgts
1) 1x lots @ 4000
2) 2x lots >4125 & VIX <20
3) 2x lots to be determined & VIX <18
team-Kerb
you can always leave a couple for the runner
if you think: SPX has some leg
I always do
often, I have
long puts & calls same time
the runners become the upside-risk hedging
runners already are deep ITM, delta>0.85
acting like shares
short-OTM calls to hedge the hedge
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in theory
1) if SPX
@ATH
, making higher highs
2) $VIX should go down, or making lower high
3) but if both moving up in sync with 7-day corr>25%
4) means left-tail risk rising
smart-money long SPX puts, hedging under-the-hood, expecting a risk event coming
5) someone always knows
another leading indicator example with probability.
composed of 3 different correlation indicators:
$Gold, $VIX, $VVIX correlation with $SPX
it is super leading, worked really well in detecting ATH's upto 2021
posted below just before the Sep 2020 plunge in $SPX
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planning a vacation, away from all social media, to recharge.
don't go away, I will be back.
I shall see you all @ SPX 3700 Avenue in coming weeks.
thanks.
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Million $ strategy for free:
If you can understand the below chart and practice everyday with position sizing & risk mgmt, you will be a successful day traders:
1 April 21 - perfect Bull Trap set up
2 April 22 - perfect Bear trap set up
study it and comprehend
very important
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NEW team-Kerb Plan update:
#IgnoreTheNoise
1) 1st scale-in @ $SPX 4000 filled
2) 2nd scale-in @ 4125 && $VIX <18 filled
3) new 3rd scale-in @ Yellen-Wall (4200) && VIX < 18 (55% prob)
4) 1st profit tgt =Mexican-wall
5) 2nd profit tgt =3650
7) scale-in BTFD <3600, 3550 & 3500👌
ICYMI:
good summary of all indi's &
a comprehensive strategy on how to use them
confluence is KING
I posted >100+ indi's in the past 4-5 yrs
below strategy is a good summary of team-Kerb Swing trading plan in general.
#IgnoreTheNoise
follow the team-Krb plan with confidence
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$VIX crushed 10% today
now, back to 23ish
it would be the best scenario,
when SPX > 3975 to 4100
&
$VIX <20 or 18
then scale-in STFR puts with super low premium
&
wait for next leg down & panic low
& $VIX >35 or 40
then
BTF-capitulation @ 3400
team-Kerb best scenario plan🤣🍻
too bad😉
team Kerb missed the best scenario?🤣
best scenario
=
1) $SPX tanked -250 pts on morning CPI data
2) team-Kerb received 3600 & 3500 gifts @ capitulation
3) then $SPX surged >3950 after the open
4) too bad, we missed the best scenario like last CPI release on Oct 13🤣
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starting next week,
I will take a break from social media to recharge.
don't go away. I will be back.
nice planned dump at the close today.
$SPX
HOD = 4607
LOD = 4528
79 pts flush in the afternoon
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33) to reproduce the below chart on
a. use $VIX:$VXMT as the main symbol
b. add 7 EMA (purple) and 12 EMA (red) to the main window
c. make the main symbol as "invisible"
d. so only showing the two EMAs on the main window
e. add $VIX to the top panel
done
29) take-profit level:
when the ratio (purple line) is moving up and starts to tick down, then take profit immediately.
30) for shrewd traders, you can also use the purple line ticking-down as a short VIX signal or BTFD $SPY $QQQ signals
31) many applications
32) confused yet?
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team-Kerb plan
1) sold all BTF-capitulation calls @ 3675 3600 3500
last week
2) both profit-tgts @ 3875 & 3950 filled on Thu 5.5% short-squeeze to a T
3) started scale-in STFR trades
4) SPX filled @ 4000 Friday
5) not $ES_Z (=4009)
7) 2nd-tgt >4125 & VIX <20
8) 3rd?
clear?
STFR >3975
actually, after seeing today's relentless short-squeeze non-stop
every down-tick got bought by short-covering, absolutely stunning
they might pump this until Dec FOMC
new STFR tgts
1) 1x lots @ 4000
2) 2x lots >4125 & VIX <20
3) 2x lots to be determined & VIX <18
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Correlation study:
SPX-Gold correlation 50-d
SPX-VIX correlation 7-day
SPX-VVIX correlation 7-day
A. 2 out of three aligned = good prob (> 70%🦃)
B. 3 out of three alighed = excellent prob ( > 85%🦃)
C. today? yep. 3 out of three stars aligned
left tail risk is rising BIGLY
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indeed scary stuff 🍻
what if you ignore the "VIX" part:😉
1) cooler-CPI = yes✅
1.a) 4050 = yes✅
1.b) 4125🎯 = SPX Hi = 4140 = yes✅
2) Powell nuclear-bomb 💣 = yes✅
2,a) 100% yes✅
2.b) 1000% yes✅
3) yes ✅🍻
is this scary?
click "like" if YES☺️☺️☺️
oh well
I am NOT GOD
Powell, the Grinch, stole my best-case scenario Xmas gift with a nuclear-bomb💣
but, on a positive note:
1) cooler-CPI = yes
1.a) 4050 = yes
1.b) partially yes = SPX Hi = 4140 but, VIX >20
2) Powell nuclear-bomb = yes🍻
2,a) 100% yes
2.b) 1000% yes
3) ?🍻
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$VIX crushed from 37+ to 21 handle in just 5-6 days
while $USD surged to above $91.50
broken markets continued
$USD & $VIX should be highly positively correlated
&
$USD & $SPX should be highly negatively correlated
since last week, the market structure=upside down
bullish++😉
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oldie but goodie.
a long read for the 3-day holiday
enjoy..
be careful about the symbols used on different platforms
the new VIX symbols & symbols (old):
VIX9D = VXST
VIX = VIX
VIX3M = VXV
VIX6M = VXMT
VIX1Y = not available on stockcharts
enjoy..
33) to reproduce the below chart on
a. use $VIX:$VXMT as the main symbol
b. add 7 EMA (purple) and 12 EMA (red) to the main window
c. make the main symbol as "invisible"
d. so only showing the two EMAs on the main window
e. add $VIX to the top panel
done
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Powell dirty & ugly tricks continued
see below thread
today was the reverse-bomb of last Nov FOMC
how about the upcoming Dec 14 FOMC?
more Powell-bomb?
Powell must be colluding with the colluders/Ponzi's to front-run his own tricks again & again?
rigged
agree? click "like"🤣
184 people agreed & "liked" below post👍
on Powell's dirty trick/collusion on Nov 2 FOMC
1) @ 2PM, super dovish FOMC statement prompted a massive pump
2) more dovishness/pump during 2:30 to 3PM Powell conf
3) then hawkish Powell dropped the bomb
4) SPX flushed 200pts in 1 hr
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confluence is KING
many followers complained
very hard to
#IgnoreTheNoise
&
#StayTheCourse
below 2 breadths from completely diff perspective
both blue=ST uptrend
both Red=ST downtrend
#IgnoreTheNoise
color change =ST trend-change
BTFD & STFR
monkeys can trade it🐵
today🎯👍
more confluence.🤣🤣🤣
dumb-money indy
& Cramer indy
ZH- Retail Investors Pour $1.5 Billion Each Day Into US Markets, The "Highest Amount Ever Recorded"
"in the last month, retail investors poured an average of $1.51bn/day into the US markets, the highest amount ever recorded"
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new followers asking
why so many walls?
wall is a 'cute' nickname for the magnet 🧲
a chart is worth a zillion words
with some recent walls defined
Kerb-wall 🚀= reached but $VIX was not <20
Trump-wall = next
Biden fence
Berlin wall
Powell wall🔮
Doomsday wall = 3200💣
one more😉
Good things come to those who are patient & wait👍
super accurate🍻
Indicator-SPX-Crash-Coming
Indicator-QQQ-Crash-Coming
more confluence?
SPX-crashing-coming indicator peaked a week ago
short-term bottom is forming?
ST relief rally to visit Trump wall soon🤣😉🤣
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ICYMI.. Indicator update
I was ridiculed by many "non-believers" last week by below Monday Tweet, warning about a pending market correction with over 90% probability
And it did happen on Tue, Thur and Friday
This indicator is still on & valid for the coming week
👇🤐👇.
Data mining, data analytics & deep learning would pay off? Let's wait & see😎
To invite some trollings, I will reiterate
The market crash indicators/prob is now higher than 90%.
Below is one of my crash indicators
The red line (inv-crash prob) is now almost as hi as Feb 18
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plan for this wk?
1) if SPX tanks
we'll have our "gift" @ 3500
wait for a short-squeeze rally to 3875, 3950
do more covered/short calls on $SPX pump ~100 pts from entry
2) if mkt rises
1st tgt >3875
2nd tgt >3950
STFR >3975
so, surge or plunge this wk, we all covered🍻
cool🤣
position update
Sep 23
we took profit on all of our 3 scale-in STFR bearish positions when $SPX <3700
then
we turned mildly bullish
started the BTF-capitulation trades
1) 1st scale-in long: filled on 9/23 @ 3675
2) 2nd scale-in: filled on 9/30 @ 3600
3) final @ 3500
4) cool?🍻
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The Thanksgiving special:
$VIX Long strategy = Indicator-VL
2nd-tgt SPX >4125
&
VIX <20
today VIX = 20.42; getting there
to prove:
below Ind-VL pinpointed all VIX bottoms to a T
very good odds that Ind-VL would turn RED
when
both SPX >4125 && VIX <20 are true
in coming days🍻
7) 2nd-tgt >4125 & VIX <20
if both
$SPX >4125
and
$VIX <20
are true & confluent
then
the probability of a $SPX correction and/or a $VIX spike is greatly enhanced
plus,
when both are true, the premium of the STFR puts also decreases significantly
super cool ! 🍻
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below is one of the most important Jaws of 2023
1) $SPX @ euphoria/fomo highs🐵
but
2) $USD is stronger (bearish for risky assets)
or $USD (Inverted) is weaker
for visual Jaws detection
3) what happened next?🦃
Oct 2021 Jaws
Mar 2022 Jaws
Aug Jaws
this time is different?😉🤣
this is what I have been advocating on the leg-in iron-Condors:🧐👍
1) when SPX pumped >Yellen wall +20
short calls (or call-spreads) with short-strike >4300 (or 4310 for ES_M) 1 week out
2) when SPX dumped below Kerb-wall -20
short puts (or put-spreads) with short-strike <4000
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Team-Kerb:
do you think today's SPX & $UST yield price action was staged, manipulated & engineered by Powell?
a dovish Fed statement followed by some super-duper Hawkish conference comments
to benefit the insiders & colluders?
not cool.
if yes, click "like" !! 👍🍻🍻🍻👍
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team-Kerb plan update:
1) 1st scale-in @ $SPX 4000 filled
2) 2nd scale-in @ 4125 && $VIX <18 filled
3) (70% prob) 3rd scale-in @ Yellen-Wall && VIX<18
4) Thanksgiving gift👌😉
5) 1st profit tgt =Mexican-wall
6) 2nd tgt =3650
7) scale-in BTFD <3600, 3550, 3500
#IgnoreTheNoise
👍
team-Kerb: below thread for tgts & position-sizing
1) 1st scale-in @ $SPX 4000 filled
2) 2nd scale-in @ 4125 && $VIX <18 filled
3) (55% prob) 3rd scale-in @ Yellen-Wall && VIX<18
4) 1st profit tgt =Mexican-wall
5) 2nd tgt =3650
6) scale-in BTFD <3600, 3550, 3500
#IgnoreTheNoise
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team-Kerb plan👍
1) scale-in calls @ 3675 3600 3500
profit-tgts =3875 & 3950 filled on Nov 10
3) started STFR trades
4) SPX @ 4000 filled on Nov 11
7) 2nd-tgt >4125 && VIX<20 (?)
8) 3rd >4200 && VIX<18 (low prob)
9) 1st profit-tgt =3675
10) 2nd tgt =3600
11) then BTFD <3550
in other words,
be vigilant, be watchful, be circumspect🧐
in case Powell pull a reverse-bomb on Wednesday & Dec FOMC.
what is a reverse-bomb? 🤣🤣🤣
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example for rolling:
A. assume long Dec puts (6-mth out)
B. Theta decay is minimal for the first 3-mth
C. by Sep/Oct, start to prepare rolling out to Mar (suffering minimum decay) if SPX hasn't plunged yet
D. avoid the dreaded last 2-month Theta decay
E. super important🧐😎
rolling out example.
below chart illustrates an example when to start thinking about "rolling-out" your lotter tickets to a later expiry, avoiding the dreaded Theta decay in the last 2 month, while extending the life of your lottery tickets, waiting for the Turkey 1001 days
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to be clear
this is a free service with tons of my own research results & valuable data analytics that you can't get from anywhere else, even with expensive paid services
so, if you don't agree with me
no problem
just no personal attack
Otherwise, I don't think you deserve it.
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monitor below chart closely.
$NQ just re-tested the lower support level
$NQ low = 11,598
they can't allow to plunge below 11,600 level.
otherwise, tomorrow bloodbath.
see below Support & Resistance levels
super accurate😉
stop-run levels on both sides: bulls & bears👇
$NQ 15 minutes
quick & dirty
support and resistance levels.
nothing matters:
stimulus optimism 🍻
stimulus pessimism 🦃
Zoom negotiation continues? 🤣 to infinity..
also see above pump'n dump charts for
#NDX
who is counting?
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warning: a long thread😉
a real story on one of my data mining projects
a few years back, I embarked a huge project trying to find the best standard "indicators" for swing-trading under all market conditions.
I picked several most popular indy's
below is the MACD story.
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one more time ( 1 zillion + 1)
my preferred STFR Puts
delta ~= 0.3
maturity at least 4 month out
see below
Theta-decaying chart & rolling example
if you have a crystal ball with >90% probability
<2 months out would be okay
study below chart
example for rolling:
A. assume long Dec puts (6-mth out)
B. Theta decay is minimal for the first 3-mth
C. by Sep/Oct, start to prepare rolling out to Mar (suffering minimum decay) if SPX hasn't plunged yet
D. avoid the dreaded last 2-month Theta decay
E. super important🧐😎
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my favorite strategy
$XLY & $WMT spread z-score
entry
z < -1 std => long 1/3 of total lots
long WMT & short h * XLV
z < -2 std => long 2/3 of total lots
profit
z > 0 std => out 1/3 lots
z > +1 std => out 1/3 lots
z > +2 std trailing 1/3 lots
stop
z < -3 std. out.
pair trading: many strategies
$XLY=cyclical, growth
$WMT=value, staple
fear, crisis=>WMT strong
greed, FOMO=>XLY strong
easily spotted on below pair-trading spread z-score FOMO/Greed zones
now: greed zone, like Jan 2020
If you have many similar charts?
long WMT👌
short XLY🦃
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For those who just joined me last week, this is a must read post which would make one stay on the right side of the market. Do not long or short $VIX related ETFs/ETNs by gut feeling
Just realized that last night my followers have passed the 1000 mark, in less than 4 months. Thx
@MoMoBagholder
@0ptionsRookie
Short Vols or Long $SPX calls trades.
All the red lines are for short Vols trades or long $SPX calls.
This was broken in Dec 2017 , and Jan 2018. You should know the reason why. All other times from 2011 to 2018, this works great.
If combined with Backwardation, this is 90+%
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haha
The Pelosi’s have 20,000 shrs in Nvidia, $NVDA, worth millions after yesterday’s stock disclosures
then
Nancy Pelosi Urges Support Of $50 Billion 'CHIPS' Bill Hours After Disclosing $8 Million Nvidia Stake
- perfectly legal for congress members
- front-run her own Bill🤣
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2nd Dim - Volume Spread analysis (developed by Wychoff in 1930's), enhanced by Tom Williams. His book is must read for understanding the Market Structure relationship between price, volume and price spread. And how smart money and market operators gaming the retails. Free ebook
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"the TOP" is not there yet🔔
we need all the melt-up gurus & Cramer to pump more & more
to get to our gift 4125
to prove?
see below chart,
added the negatively-sloped, downtrend line👍
a chart is worth a zillion words & a zillion dollars🍻
what? no-way
to da Moon
Volume means nothing
$SPY volume Speaks Volumes😉
since Dec 2021
deceasing volume melt-up
was a super leading indi for "top is near" $SPX price
among many other breadth Jaws
who said
besides Cramer, melt-up gurus🤣
they don't ring a BELL at the top🔔🔔
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Million $ strategy for free👌
The "bear trap" & "bull trap" concept using the volume profile POC is very useful in intra-day trading also
Especially in the futures where the buyer & sellers are zero-sum game, for every long there is a short
We had two-days in a row in
#ES
One final quiz for the day:🧐🙃
If scanning within the S&P 502 stocks or QQQ 100 or any sector, if one finds more than 70% of the stocks within the group having the same "bull trap" patterns, what would the $SPX price go the next day?
How about one finds tons of "bear traps"?😎
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Confluence is KING
1) $SPX vs $TLT correlation Jaws for 2022 & 2023
&
2) $VIX <20
3) confluence plus more breadth Jaws
4) scale-in STF-euphoria, when all are true
Jan 2022 Jaw
#1
Mar Jaws
#2
Aug Jaws
#3
Nov Jaws
#4
Feb Jaws
#5
wow
super accurate team-Kerb plan = 💯% win-rate👍
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3 stages of recession
2nd stage already accomplished on Oct 13 when $SPX made a panic low ~=3491 on Hot-CPI
with a credit event, we're ready for the 3rd & final stage flush to my tgt 3400; worst-case=3200
even before rate to >6%
still many swings to BTFD & STFR prior to 3400
to new followers: trying to understand the macro trend in a recession year
below Team-Kerb macro view for 2022 & 2023.
stocks will not go down in a straight line
always follow the 3 stages of declines
hence
trade the swings & controlled demolition
STF-euphoria
BTF-capitulation
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ALERT
The 200-d Correlation between $VIX & $VVIX for last five year was above 70
Very high correlation
When in times of stress, if this correlation (200) was below 60, and the $VIX & $VVIX both declined, signifying complacency, a huge $VIX spike event would follow 100%
RT
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I am back
I am doing just fine. Actually, doing great
I just have to finish my project
it has been too long and it started to bother me last week
no social media
no TV
no trading
no Tweeter
just focus on my project
no interruption
my productivity was phenomenal
Thanks 👌🧐😎
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now
I have to turn on my "market crash' indi's
warning😉
I will start to block people who're now late-bulls & melt-up gurus claiming
"5000 coming due to CTA short-covering & massive share buybacks, Powell pivot, blah blah blah"
you will be blocked
crash indicators are on🤣🍻🤣
what a difference 4 weeks makes?
1-month ago
$SPX near 52-week low
doomers & late bears claimed
"the sky is falling, into the abyss, 2400"
after 500pts =14.3% surge from low
today
same doomers/late-bears capitulated & claimed:
"the sky is limit, $SPX to da Moon, 5000"
🤣🍻🍻🤣
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Anybody still interest in this thread?
If I have enough people interested in learning the "risk-adjusted modern portfolio theory", I will continue
Prerequisite:
portfolio return
standard-deviation(std)=risk
sharpe ratio = risk adjusted portfolio return
To understand the risk-adjusted return is a very important concept for portfolio management, especially in times of stress with tons of risks
For people to claim this is not applicable in 2020, is just unfathomable
Risk-parity funds tend to do relatively well in times of stress
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I re-tweeted below post 100+ times
for long-term calls or puts
in a STFR bear regime
use 0.3 to 0.5 delta
and
below long duration maturity to minimize Theta decay; minimum 4 months out.
roll them out before the dreaded & accelerated time-decay kicking-in the last 2 months
example for rolling:
A. assume long Dec puts (6-mth out)
B. Theta decay is minimal for the first 3-mth
C. by Sep/Oct, start to prepare rolling out to Mar (suffering minimum decay) if SPX hasn't plunged yet
D. avoid the dreaded last 2-month Theta decay
E. super important🧐😎
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Data mining, data analytics & deep learning would pay off? Let's wait & see😎
To invite some trollings, I will reiterate
The market crash indicators/prob is now higher than 90%.
Below is one of my crash indicators
The red line (inv-crash prob) is now almost as hi as Feb 18
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updated chart for 3 stages of controlled demolition
2022 & 2023
1st stage $ 2nd stage completed
3rd stage is to be accomplished
when
#SPX
making a lower low & panic low ~= 3400/3200
3 stages of recession
2nd stage already accomplished on Oct 13 when $SPX made a panic low ~=3491 on Hot-CPI
with a credit event, we're ready for the 3rd & final stage flush to my tgt 3400; worst-case=3200
even before rate to >6%
still many swings to BTFD & STFR prior to 3400
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Yep.
As of this morning, I am more bearish than Jan 2018 & Feb 2020
fake market
There were several times in the last 2 weeks, all smart money huge dumps have been saved by the invisible hands, setting up a bigger bull trap, preparing for the big rug pull & flush
Mark my words
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2023 predictions
1) just the extension of 2022; nothing has changed
2) $SPX f-v =3400
worst-case =3200
3) $BTC <12K
4) $TSLA f-v=130
buy of the decade if <100
5) $AAPL f-v =$100 (since Jan 2022)
6) peak-rate =6% until Q2
7) Powell to raise inflation tgt from 2% to 2.5 or 3%
8)..
plus more 2021 prediction
1) @ Apr/May FOMC, Powell insisted peak-rate =3% to control inflation to 2%
2) Kerb challenged: peak-rate=6% to tame inflation to 2% & stay there for a long-time
3) today fund-rate ~=4.33% already
4) Dec dot-plot projected: 5 to 6% in 2023
&
tons more🍻
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presenting 🦃day special: for free
team-Kerb Turkey 🦃 Day Secret Ingredients
=
🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃
🦃🦃🦃 indicator 🦃🦃🦃
🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃🦃
quiz:
today
getting there? 🦃1001 days ?
The Thanksgiving special:
$VIX Long strategy = Indicator-VL
2nd-tgt SPX >4125
&
VIX <20
today VIX = 20.42; getting there
to prove:
below Ind-VL pinpointed all VIX bottoms to a T
very good odds that Ind-VL would turn RED
when
both SPX >4125 && VIX <20 are true
in coming days🍻
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anyone noticed that
this morning
$ES_U surged 50+ points
but,
all morning, $VIX was up
someone always knows 🤣🧐
market moving event this week:
1) Tues Sep 13 at 8:30 ET
Aug 2022 CPI 12-month change data
May CPI =8.6% YoY
June CPI =9.1% YoY
July CPI =8.5% YoY
Aug CPI =??? 😉
remember last month🤣
massive pump on a "fake" CPI😉
2) Fri Sep 16
Quarterly
#ES_U
futures & Options expiration
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position update
1) scale-in more STFR positions >3925 & VIX <25
🎯filled today👍
2) if we're lucky
scale-in more shorts >4025 & VIX <20🧲
3) 1st profit target=3700
4) 3625 all-out
5) then capitulation
6) then BTFD & wait for short-squeeze rally
7) rinse repeat🍻
do you own DD
#ES_F
= 3920
next
3925 = 👍🧲🧲🧲🧲🧲🧲🧲👍
coming
position sizing + discipline + patience = 📈💰💰📈
Pelosi family & buddies making good money on $NVDA shares & calls o insider trading = perfectly legal
$NVDA up >5%🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
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👌🧐
bull trap.. mark this post. 🔥😎
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now, patience is the KEY,
after team-Kerb 2nd gift @ 4125 & VIX <18 on 2/1/2023
#IgnoreTheNoise
we now have
1) 2x STFR Puts @ 4000
2) 2x STFR Puts @ 4125
there'll be many BTFD call hedging trades coming @ famous walls
working on 3rd gift if there is any
stay tuned 🫖🍵🍵🍵🫖
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be clear
I might stop posting tgts any day
this feed is mainly for educational purpose
only for people who are motivated & having the drive to learn
not for everyone
trading tgts are secondary for reference only
which is not my main goal, I might stop posting targets any day🧐
to be clear
this feed is for educational purposes
only for people who are motivated & having the drive to learn
not for everyone
trading tgts are secondary for reference, only for those who want to learn & study my posts👌
not my main goal, I might stop posting targets any day
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Quiz: one of 100+ leading indi's😉
what is below Indicator-G?
with defined zones:
1) euphoria/FOMO
2) greed
3) fear
4) capitulation
trading opportunites:
blue circle = STFR oppor
green square = BTF-fear/capitulation oppor
Friday?
a) in greed zone
b) approaching euphoria zone
Kerb secret weapon😇
Kerb-short-squeeze indy🤣
last weekend, I blocked 20+ doomers
who continued to lecture people on this feed
why $SPX 2400 with tons of apocalyptic news/data
blah blah blah
hence my confident of short-squeeze was through the roof
accurate breadth?
yep 3900🍻
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Ponzi explained
A->B $10
B->A $12
A->B $14
B->A $16
A->B $18
B->A $20
C = gullible bulls
Hmm. I can buy at $22 & sell for $24. super bullish chart pattern
A->C $22
C -> what? nobody buying?
C-> $20 -> $14 -> $10 still nobody = bagholder?
C-> A $1 finally
wash rinse repeat.🦃
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Shocking Stats from $COT on $ES_F
From Oct - Dec $SPX Plunged 600 pts
Large Specs = Net Long
Commercials = Net Short
From Feb - Apr $SPX Rallied 500 pts
Large Specs = Net Short 90% of time
Comm = Net Long 90% of time
From May 1 to Tue
Large Specs = Net Long
Comm = Net Short
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1) bloodbath quarter, they need to save the quarter
2) quarter-end window dressing starts next wk
3) fund rebalance starts next wk
4) one negative =buyback blackout period starting
5) short-term R:R favors the upside
6) eventually 3400-3500, not now
7) 1st tgt =3925🎯
8) 2nd?😉
2nd stage completed today
extremely over-sold
1)de-risk
2)de-leverage
3)unwind
4)capitulation
5)sell everything to meet margin calls
#BitCoin
=$20,650
6)but with "controlled demolition", VIX & VVIX suppressed hugely
7)short-term oversold, short-squeeze relief rally imminent🧐
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not only a life saver.
a couple of Kerb-followers claimed I saved their marriages too
I am the CEO of team-Kerb enterprise.
p.s.
CEO
=
Chief Entertainment Officer🤪
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people claimed the same in Mar 2022
SPX > 4600
Kerb: tgt = 3700
what happened?
June low = 3650
almost 1000 pts drop
same in Aug high SPX > 4300
Kerb: tgt = 3500
and
Sep/Oct low = 3491
800 pts plunge
this time is different?
another 800 pts drop
SPX = 3200👍🎯👍
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fade $GS
doomers at $GS capitulated and turned super bullish today 🤣
as expected ! 😋 🫖🍵🍵🍵🫖😋
time to be bearish @ Kerb-wall, when $GS turning super bullish
fade $GS
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7) 2nd-tgt >4125 & VIX <20
8) 3rd > 4200 & VIX < 18
meaning
SPX > 4125 AND VIX < 20
both have to be true.
examples:
$SPX = 4130 & $VIX = 21 ==> no STFR
$SPX = 4100 & $VIX = 18 ==> no STFR
SPX = 4150 & VIX = 19.99
yes, STFR @ 4150
confused?
for the scale-in STFR trades:
1st profit-target = 3675
2nd profit-target = 3600
doomers & late-bears would then claim:
"the sky is falling & Lehman-moment, 2400 coming"
then
we turn super bullish
& wait for the BTF-capitulation targets
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for people waiting for VIX < 18
$VIX = 17.86 now🍵🍵🍵
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To quant followers:
A few good books for Christmas and New Year.
1 Machine Learning for Factor Investing R Version
by Tony Guida; Sep 1, 2020
2 Algorithmic Trading: A Practitioner's Guide Paperback – by Jeffrey M Bacidore; July 20, 2020
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team-Kerb plan
1) 2 scale-in calls @ 3834 & 3780 (near swing lows)
2) took profits @ Trump-wall & Great-wall (filled)
3) 1st STFR scale-in Puts: $SPX @ Great-wall filled on 1/13 combined with prior one
4) 2nd Puts @ Kerb-wall & VIX<18 🫖🍵🫖
5) tgts 3700 & 3625
6) BTFD <3600👌
team-Kerb plan
1) after taking profit on 3925 Calls @ 4050
2) started 2 scale-in calls @ 3834 & 3780
3) 1st profit=Trump-wall filled
2nd=Great-wall filled
4) 1st Puts: $SPX @ Great-wall filled on 1/13 combined with prior one
5) 2nd Puts @ Kerb-wall & VIX<18
6) tgts 3700 & 3625
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if today is another down day,
$SPX down 5 days in row
short-term oversold
I am buying some cheap calls if $SPX <3930 in the afternoon
to hedge some short-term upside risk.
expecting profit target =4050 on the short-term upside hedge.
how about below low-volume melt-up?
predicting the Dec plunge?
BTW, on Powell preplanned, staged, fake reverse-bomb last Wed, $SPY did reach the top trendline
then as expected
the plunge ensued
too bad, we didn't get our Xmas gift on that pump🎯
well
can't be that perfect🤣
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Happy new-year special🍻
a complete trading algo for 2022 & beyond
in the Powell rug-pull FrankenBear-regime😉
added the regressions for both with
STFR
BTFD
BTF-Capitulation
BTF-Apocalypse
marked
reg-line =fair-value
>reg-line =over-valued
<reg-line =under-valued
3200-3400🍻
bearish Jaws over the entire Oct/Nov melt-up
quiz:
Indicator-Apocalyptic😉
this is an easy one, but effective
for both bearish-Jaws & bullish Jaws
answer after the new year🤣
Jaws
#4
: Jan 2022
bearish Jaws =stealthy dist. @ top
many CEOs & insiders dumping their company stks
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for aggressive traders with tons of cash/capital
1) you can add more scale-in Puts b/w Kerb-wall & matcha-wall
2) raise max-risk to
8% or 10% of your capital
3) this rally was designed to kill all doomers & late bears who shorted <3850
4) after the squeezes; not going to last
the 3rd & final scale-in 2x STFR puts
SPX >$4315 && VIX < 18
1x =max risk of 1% of total capital
2x =max risk of 2% of your capital
so, we'll have a max of
6x =6% of total capital
worst case
but, we already had many call-hedges & short-Puts hedges in last 2 mths
more to come
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bulls beware🧐
the market is entering the final phase of
1 dumb money accumulation
2 smart money stealthy distribution
3 the ultimate "shoeshine boy" moment would be here when all the stimulus checks buying at ATH mkt top- Mar 2000?- you will be lectured by the shoeshine boy🍻
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3rd Dim - Market profile and volume profile - devised by J. Peter Steidlmayer at CBOT in 1960'sm enhanced by Jim Dalton.
Jim's 2 books on Market profiles - must read for anybody who is serious about day-trading as well as swing trading.
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probability
don't be a pig.
greed is the most evil human quality, especially in trading
my motto
always leave money on the table
There is no such thing as “taking a profit too early” When you trade, you have no way of knowing what will happen in the future; only probability
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💰💰If you can only monitor one indicator for: 💰💰
1 BTFD - below fear zone, BTFD on cross-over
2 STFR - above euphoria zone & Jaws (divergence), STFR on trend-line break
my super smart dog Algo strategy
thanks to my "genius" dog, divulging her trillion $ strategy for free👍
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got it.🎯
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position update
after we took profit on 3 scale-in shorts: when $SPX <3700 in Sep
we turned mildly bullish
BTF-capitulation
1) 1st scale-in long: filled on 9/23 @ 3675
2) 2nd : filled on 9/30 @ 3600🧲
3) final: filled on 10/13@ 3500🎯
4) 1st tgt >3875
5) 2nd tgt >3950
6) STFR
Sep CPI 8.2% vs 8.1% expected
hotter than expected (8.1)
but, less than feared (>8.3)
position
Sep 23
took profit on all 3 scale-in STFR trades when $SPX <3700
1) 1st scale-in filled @ 3675
2) 2nd scale-in filled @ 3600
3) final @ 3500 filled
ignore the noise
stay the course
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2nd stage already accomplished on Oct 13 when $SPX made a panic low ~=3491 on the Hot-CPI
we are ready for the 3rd & final stage plunge to my target 3400; worst-case =3200
but not until Powell hikes rate to >6% in coming Qs
we still have many swings to BTFD & STFR in between
@kerberos007
is this down leg the 2nd stage or 3rd stage demolishing? you mentioned it is still 2nd yesterday. then if this is still 2nd stage, 3650 cover --> 3400 BTFD would be the start of 3rd stage? thanks
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Wyckoff method & VSA analysis:
SOW = Sign of Weakness
Instead of monitoring 505 individual charts, I just had an idea to quantify all charts in $SPX, measuring the breadth of $SPX movement by comp stock momentum scoring
hint:
1 below chart showing Agilent's momentum score
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Important: for 🐂🧸🐻🐂
It is all about the Risk/Reward analysis
Upside= 5% max
Downside= -20 to -30%: worst case =
#SPX
2200
See below R:R analysis 1-2 days before the Feb-Mar historical plunge, while everybody was expecting SPX 4,000 in a week. FOMO.
Same R:R as today.🧐😎
@realJosephRich
@MoMoBagholder
@kerberos007
@JacksonStewal
@FlyrUsr
@RaymondCarota
@Shorteverythin1
@BlingCharts
@LawrenceLepard
@zoeywoeyzoey
@Nbaplayoffs2025
@RSInvestor
@AndysCycles
@NickVRamos
@RetirementRight
@LinkFarry
.
@kerberos007
Hall of Fame Money tweet. Check date.
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remember $SPX 3950 = super-duper 🧲🧲🧲
beware:
by tomorrow, if the Ponzi retests the 3950 again,
then on Wed
the Ponzo might pump $SPX to ~4000 to stop-run the late-bears & doomers during Powell speech
then, STFR again
team-Kerb:
ignore the noise,
trade the team-Kerb plan.👍
sure it is NOT a capitulation
it is @ euphoria zone
not even a minor pullback
surely it is a catalyst to what's coming
1) China 0-Covid policy,
defiant protests &
on-going supply-chain disruption causing high inflation
2) Powell-Bomb, Bullard-bomb & more Fed-Bombs to come💣💣
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$COT for $VX Futures:
A picture is worth 1,000,000 words.
See below record net short positions held by large speculators and leveraged funds.
No comments needed. 🤫
This time will be different??? 🤦♂️
"Golden age for short vol trades" - BBG
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position update
1) scale-in more STFR positions >3925 & VIX <25
2) if we get lucky
scale-in more shorts >4025 & VIX <20
3) 1st profit target=3700
4) 3625 all-out
5) then capitulation
6) then BTFD & wait for short-squeeze rally
7) rinse repeat🍻
do you own DD
trade accordingly
position update:
1) plan to scale-in more STFR positions >3925
2) if we get lucky,
scale-in more short > 4025
3) 1st profit target = 3700
4) then 3625
do you own DD🧐
trading accordingly
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one can also think of
1st leg (wave) down
2nd leg (wave) down
3rd leg (wave) down
in a STFR bear regime, ignoring the counter-trend bear-market short-squeeze rallies as long as each leg-down is lower than previous one
zig zag
zig zag
zig zag
zig zag
to the final 3rd leg target🎯
updated chart for 3 stages of controlled demolition
2022 & 2023
1st stage $ 2nd stage completed
3rd stage is to be accomplished
when
#SPX
making a lower low & panic low ~= 3400/3200
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I got this bad feeling they're positioned to stage a "rip your face off rally", no matter what the election outcome
1 to kill all options "Gamma" for a few days
2 making all shorts "the endangered species"🧐
3 then a huge rug pull, if it's a contested election
4 cash is KING😉
Tomorrow: Nov 3
1 The best positioning is "no position" =all cash
2 second = "short" with proper upside hedging
3 third = long with proper downside hedge
10 worst = all-in bulls
there will be plenty of times in the coming days to decide which direction is the best investment🧐
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ICYMI:
the entire thread on
$SPX $VIX $VVIX $GOLD & their correlations
swing trading signals & setups.
educational & informative 👍🧐
in theory
1) if SPX
@ATH
, making higher highs
2) $VIX should go down, or making lower high
3) but if both moving up in sync with 7-day corr>25%
4) means left-tail risk rising
smart-money long SPX puts, hedging under-the-hood, expecting a risk event coming
5) someone always knows
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I have a few friends working at $NVDA
they called, telling me:
they're cashing out big time on their company's stock options that were granted free a few yrs back
they are saying:
this rally is BS,
thanks to the Ponzi pump,
raising tons of cash😉
they're all multi-millionaires😋
cumulative $CPI index
another all time high =304.127
the trend is till going up in May
just at a "cooler" rate mostly due to gasoline, which is very volatile MoM
notice the long-term CPI trend
=2% chg YoY (red-line)
but
at current pace (blue),
long way to go to hit 2% tgt🧐
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we'll receive our FedEx gift delivery next wk?
below breadth Indi-FOMO reached Euphoria/FOMO zone only 4 times in the last 3 yrs
Jan 2020, pre-Covid euphoria only reached ~80%, then a huge Jaws emerged by Feb & crash ensued
Aug Pivot hope >90%🦃
Dec reverse-bomb💣hope >90%🤣
green... haha
we might receive our FedEX gift delivery today?🤣🤣
the Ponzi algos are having fun.. thank you
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10) in the mean time, team-Kerb trades the range from 3400-4200
11) <3500, doomers: the sky is falling, all-in shorts, we buy, then short-squeeze
12) >4100, melt-up gurus: to da Moon, all-in longs, we short, then rug-pull
13) rinse repeat
14) team-Kerb plan until 2024 or 2032
5) if SPX >4200, the hyper-inflation is back on again
6) causing super over-valuation & everything bubble on all assets
7) Powell would need to start the cycle all over again
8) Powell can't let that happen
9) Powell to use Kerb "melt-up gurus & late bulls" crash indi 👍🤣
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yesterday:
we met emperor XI @ great-wall
by Friday:
we will meet Trump @ Trump wall
next week:
we will meet Biden @ Biden fence
is this a good team-Kerb plan
to visit some walls & meet famous people? 🤣
we need a new Putin-wall? 😉🤣
Zelenskyy wall?
the market will not go down in a straight line
take advantage of the gyration
the higher the pump
the harder the dump
important point
until Mar FOMC
the risk is heavily skewed to the downside
Powell to raise peak-rate to 6%
the peak-rate stays there for a few Qs until CPI @ 2%
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thanks to my long-term loyal followers greatly🍻
who have helped me to answer some of the questions raised by my new followers who do not know my trading terminology yet.
which saved me tons of time.
thank you 👍
what a day?
-120 pts down @ low just below 3495 pre-mkt
we've got our gift @ 3500
I claimed: ignore the noise, stay the course.
what?
-120 pts = noise?
yep
$SPX HOD = 3685
what a squeeze?
short-squeeze rally
almost 200 pts surge from $SPX low = 3490
not bad.☺️🍻🍻🍻☺️
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wowo🤣
I have to run an errand and just got back.
what a pump?
$SPX 4090 AH🍻
Powell dropped a "Reverse-Bomb"? 🥸💣🥸
as expected
it was so suspicious on Monday, sending 4 officials to act like Hawkish-Powell coming
so obvious
so staged
can't fool team-Kerb🤣
"the TOP" is not there yet🔔
we need all the melt-up gurus & Cramer to pump more & more
to get to our gift 4125
to prove?
see below chart,
added the negatively-sloped, downtrend line👍
a chart is worth a zillion words & a zillion dollars🍻
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during 2000 bubble, my 401K were full of Cramer stocks. bad
after Y2K tech wreck
I made a BIG decision to not listen to any pundits or analysts. I will do my own. I studied, reading all trading books out there👍
only trust my own research & analytics
fade Cramer & analysts
@kerberos007
No wonder why I am obsessed with your twitter feeds; I am following your path... except that listening to Cramer part (inversing it if I listen to him)😅
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ZH-Nancy Pelosi's Husband Uses Call Options To Buy Microsoft Ahead Of Big Govt Contract
If you had knowledge of this deal & made a similar trade, then got caught, you would be fined, lose all your profits; potentially be thrown into jail
- Rotten & Rigged market from the TOP🍻
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make sure team-Kerb knows the plan
1) assume: people took profit 1/2 pos @ 3875
if mkt up
2) still 10 calls open (1/2 pos)
if mkt dn
3) long 5 calls @ 1st 3600
4) long 5 calls @ 2nd 3500
5) back to 20 calls
mkt up or dn
6) 1st Profit-T =3875
7) 2nd P-T =3950
8) STFR >3975
👇
example
0) with 3 scale-in longs @ 3675 3600 3500
1) total pos =20 calls
2) profit-taking on 10 calls @ 3875
on the next leg-down
3) 5 calls @ 3600
4) 5 calls @ 3500
5) back to 20 calls
or no luck with the additional gifts
6) still 10 calls
7) 1st PT = 3875
8) 2nd PT = 3950
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I will stop posting any levels/targets
people did not read all my posts before complaining
it is free
you have to make your own trades
for scale-in, I repeatedly state the importance of
1)position sizing
2)risk mgmt
& many threads explaining the concept with real examples
then I will say:
what a gift?
more scale-in shorts at a higher level.
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I have been asked the same question a zillion times already
all for free.👌🤣
community service. I am a nice guy.
sharing knowledge
sharing my research
sharing my strategies
sharing my indicators
sharing my daily calls - tops & bottoms
and
🧲🧲 magnets🧲🧲
@kerberos007
Do you ever sell your services? Or you a retail jesus tryna educate us all for free?
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$VIX = 20.38
getting there.
but,
2nd STFR target is when
$SPX >4125 && $VIX <20
both have to be true at the same time for the STFR order to fill
if $SPX = 4120 && VIX =19.99
no STFR.
if $SPX = 4125 && VIX =19.99
yes STFR @ 4125
if $SPX = 4150 && VIX =19.99
yes STFR @ 4150
7) 2nd-tgt >4125 & VIX <20
8) 3rd > 4200 & VIX < 18
meaning
SPX > 4125 AND VIX < 20
both have to be true.
examples:
$SPX = 4130 & $VIX = 21 ==> no STFR
$SPX = 4100 & $VIX = 18 ==> no STFR
SPX = 4150 & VIX = 19.99
yes, STFR @ 4150
confused?
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People
Please be realistic here
The sky is not falling
The brightest minds in the world are working on virus cure
These who expecting SPX 4,000 when SPX at 3390, now claiming SPX 1,000
Please wake up
World CBs QE-infinity & Bazooka fiscal stimulus
Worse case: SPX 2100 IMHO
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