Johan Rockström
@jrockstrom
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Director @PIK_climate. Also Professor @unipotsdam, @sthlmresilience. Internationally recognised Earth scientist on global sustainability, #PlanetaryBoundaries.
Joined January 2013
Here is my scientific update @TEDTalks of the state of the Planet. The planet is changing faster than expected, hitting harder on people across the world. We must admit we have underestimated risks. Tipping points are approaching fast. Window open? Yes
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Probably the single largest demonstration in World History. Across the globe, millions join biggest climate protest ever. Cannot be ignored. Can be a tipping point
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I just get tired. Tired of hearing that 1.5°C is a "target" or "goal". IT IS NOT. It is a limit. The only real goal is 0°C. And not bad 1.5°C, when we LIKELY tip GIS, WAIS, Tropical Coral Reefs and Abrupt Boreal Permafrost, and get more floods, droughts, heat, disease, storms.
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10 years ago science showed there are 15 known Earth tipping elements that regulate the state of the Planet. Today we present findings that 9 of these 15 systems are on the move. There is now scientific support for declaring a state of Planetary Emergency
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We are shutting down entire countries, democratically, within our conventional economies, to diffuse Big risk. Why can't we do a fraction of this mobilisation on a much Bigger Risk - the climate crisis?.
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“I must say, in my professional life as a climate scientist, this is a low point. The window for 1.5C is shutting as I speak, so it’s really tough.” Important interview with @dpcarrington yesterday. We need to act now.
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Place the IPBES report next to the IPCC 1.5 C report and you have a full picture of a Planetary Emergency. Science cannot be more clear. The World needs to Transform. Now.
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Even if we phase out all oil, coal & gas by 2050, we still fail on holding the well-below 2°C limit, if we do not get nature back within safe planetary boundaries. We need a carbon law for Nature, and exponential roadmaps for nature climate solutions.
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At 1.2°C of global warming, with current pace, we will hit 1.5°C in 2033 and 2°C by 2060. With last 7 years being warmest on record, 2021 among them, we have strong confirmation of the global climate crisis as shown in excellent analysis by @BerkeleyEarth
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Climate Change Is Accelerating, Bringing World ‘Dangerously Close’ to Irreversible Change
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Welcome to 2020, the Year of Truth. Here a scientific summary of a failed decade, of rising global risks, and a 10 point plan for the coming 10 years. From the Swedish Radio program "Winter" that will be aired today at 13:00 CET.
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Is this the Tipping Point? Young people rising in >120 nations in >2000 places. Probably largest rising in Human History #FridayForFuture
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Finally out! 1st diagnosis of the entire Planet. All the 9 Planetary Boundaries quantified defining Our Safe Operating Space on Earth. Bad news: 6 of 9 PBs breached. Good news: Window still open, we know what to measure, we can return and we win if we do!
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Time to get serious at #COP27. Saudi Arabia's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs says tackling climate change is "not about fossil fuels" is like saying the Economy is not about Money. Only path to a manageable future for humanity is to start phasing out fossil fuels. Now.
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We have, until yesterday morning, warned of the 3-times faster warming of the Arctic, compared to the Planet. Now we have to make a correction. It is 4 times faster (7 times faster on Svalbard). Implications remain poorly understood. via @AJEnglish.
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A final nail in the fossil-fuel coffin? Here is a key paper providing proof that @Exxonmobil has known since the 1970s that their oil and gas causes climate change. Something they have been denying and diminishing for decades. Admit mistakes, and accelerate fossil-fuel phase-out.
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A real bomb shell. New improved assessment shows fossil fuel pollution kills twice as many as previously thought. Almost 9 million premature deaths per year. Compare to the disastrous premature deaths from COVID-19 of some two million people in one year
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Decarbonising the world economy within the Paris climate range will require <5% of GDP in investment. Solving world food crisis will cost a few % of global GDP. At the same time we put 6-7 % of global GDP in fossil fuel subsidies. Unacceptable. Shows we can afford a bright future
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This needs to get mainstreamed. And not only hand waving but real. World’s biggest investment fund warns directors to tackle climate crisis or face sack
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Signs of climate disruption are increasingly clear, with regions in Antarctica being 40°C too warm, and the Arctic 30°C too warm. Extremes that can trigger amplified warming. Not sure what more warning the world needs.
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We finally have a scientific health check for the entire planet! 6 of 9 planetary boundaries currently transgressed. This does not mean irreversible collapse, but we are losing resilience. We are putting the stability of the entire earth system at risk.
All #PlanetaryBoundaries mapped out, six of nine crossed: For the first time, a team of scientists is able to provide a full picture of planetary resilience. Pressure in all those boundary processes is increasing, newly published research shows:
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The Gulf Stream is bi-stable. We cannot say exactly when or if it shuts down, but signs look bad, and a shift to a weak state would be disastrous. Cannot be allowed to happen. No we act as if this risk is worth taking. Incredible.
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Important new report: Just as in the IPCC, it shows that if we go beyond 1.5, we enter a high-risk zone of crossing tipping points. We need to move fast to avoid moving to a point where the Earth system takes over & pushed us in a direction with unmanageable conditions.
500+ pages, 200+ researchers: The most comprehensive review to date on #TippingPoints in the Earth System is out, with @UniofExeter. The Global Tipping Points report delivers a comprehensive assessment of tipping point risks & societal opportunities.
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We are not making progress. Face existential challenges. And need a transformative action plan. Following another - politically flat - SDG summit & NY Climate Week, here is a @TIME 100 Voices OpEd on implications of the Latest Health Check of the Planet
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With Biden the door to "well below 2°C/1.5°C" remains open. Now we have G3 on Climate: G1=EUs net-zero by 2050; G2=Chinas net-zero latest 2060; G3=US net-zero 2050. The three largest economies go carbon neutral in 30 years. Can be the tipping point!
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Chasing the magic number - when will the AMOC collapse? We know it can collapse. Has collapse many times. And we are moving towards collapse. IPCC puts probability to < 10%. Low? Oh no, For a catastrophic event, this is VERY high. World needs to wake up.
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We tend to drown in the complexity & our inability to bend the global curve of fossil-fuel emissions. Here is the obvious 1st step to succeed - stop subsidizing oil, gas & coal. 7 trillion USD. Almost 10% of the global economy… Let, at least, clean energy compete on fair terms.
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Probably the most significant statement at COP26 so far…Queen Elisabeth called on leaders to “rise above the politics of the moment and achieve true statemanship”. Nothing less is urgently required at this point of Planetary Emergency.
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Den rika världen klagar på att Indien inte omedelbart "fasar ut" kol utan "bara" "fasar ner" (debaclet i Glasgow). Men hemma på vår lilla täppa, känner sig oppositionen tvungen att sänka bensinpriserna. Denna egoistiska dubbelmoral måste få ett slut. Ansvar i Sverige. Tack.
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Förstår man inte att vädret är ett resultat av klimatet, och att vi har skruvat upp temperaturen till den varmaste på Jorden sedan förra istiden, då har man missat något fundamentalt.
”Att göra politik av vädret är inte seriöst” säger Jimmie Åkesson, lanserar nya dieselsubventioner och demonstrerar hur sverigedemokratisk klimatpolitik och faktaresistens ser ut.
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💧We've crossed yet another #PlanetaryBoundary, now 06/10: Freshwater. Plants are suffering from water scarcity caused by human interference into the global water cycle. Whole ecosystems like the #Amazon are starting to partly dry off as a result.
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Sänkt reduktionsplikt är ett stort misstag, oavsett hur man ser på det (1) hotar konkurrenskraft och jobb i fordonsindustrin (som är mitt i det globala "racet" bort från diesel och bensin), (2) hotar svensk biobränsle industri, (3) missar ingångna klimatavtal, (4) 🇸🇪 rykte dalar.
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Well, here we go again. The new normal. And it will only get worse, if we do not cut global emissions by half in 8 years and reach zero in 28 years. Europe heatwave: France braces for record-breaking temperatures as Spain battles forest fires
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Mitt råd är att Lena Andersson läser på, det finns mkt forskning idag som bevisar vårt ansvar för extrema klimathändelser. Till Svd blir rådet, ta ert ansvar - vad försöker ni göra? Bli en megafon för ovetenskaplig klimatförnekelse? via @ETC_redaktionen.
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No, COP28 will not enable us to hold the 1.5°C limit, but yes, the result is a pivotal land-mark. It makes clear to finance, business and societies that we are now finally - 8 years behind Paris schedule - at the beginning of the end of the fossil-fuel driven world economy (1/4).
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Shocking. 2001-2022 an area 11X the size of the forests planted was lost to fire (average annual) Not only are we losing the battle for a safe future on Earth, we are cheating ourselves, allowing fossil-fuel offsetting against volatile green carbon sinks
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The red thread in science over the past 30 years? (1) Real world disasters confirm the climate science (2) Things are changing faster than expected…Here, worst ever drought in Europe in pictures. Do we need more evidence to act with urgency? The Guardian
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The Arctic is burning. Time to be really worried. And Act. Ice shelfs are desintegrating # via @HuffPostGreen.
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We are in uncharted territory. Earth’s vital signs have worsened. One example: the recorded sea surface temperatures this year have been completely off the chart, we scientists are not yet able to fully explain why. Important new climate report out now.
2023 has been a year of record #weatherextremes for now: The impacts of #globalwarming have been severe, finds new report with PIK Director @jrockstrom & @WilliamJRipple et al. Read more about the latest update of planetary vital signs:
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Holding 1.5°C still possible, but Herculian, requires (1) cutting emissions by half every decade + (2) transform food from source to sink + (3) zero loss of nature's carbon sinks, and (4) massive CCS + (5) reduce all other GHGs.
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We are rapidly approaching tipping points, and every 0.1°C of avoided warming reduces risk. Check out our new paper on tipping point risks and cascades, summarized here by @CarbonBrief
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The Humbolt glacier, Venezuela's last, is gone. Named after the father of global sustainability, Alexander von Humbolt, who at Lake Valencia in Venezuela yr 1800, seeing the drought due to deforestation, launched the idea of human-induced climate change.
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World must reach zero fossil-fuel emissions by 2050 to have a chance for 1.5 C. IEA scenarios do not align. With 50 organisations we today sign a letter to the @IEA asking that World Energy Outlook #WEO2019 to reach #ParisAgreement as its central scenario
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We cannot risk losing the Amazon carbon sink. The world needs a zero-loss of forest agreement now. Otherwise we can forget about holding 1.5C. Latest finding extremely worrying - Brazilian Amazon released more carbon than it absorbed over past 10 years
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We may be underestimating global risks of food deficits due to Climate change, and, the whole world is impacted via @SEIresearch.
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This is unprecedented. Now 70 countries signed, ahead of UN summit, World leaders pledge for Nature, recognising that we have a state of Planetary Emergency. As we see action on Climate getting real, are we seeing the same On Nature?
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Bäste Ulf @SwedishPM, .Om ni inte agerar på klimatvetenskapen @IPCC och brådskan @UNEP, så lyssna på ekonomer @HasslerJohn @LarsCalmfors. Späd inte på bensin, diesel & elanvändning med inflationsdrivande subvention av konsumtion. Vi skall bort från fossil energi inte fasta i den.
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Time to get really nervous? Now. 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth.
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President Xi says that Planet Earth is big enough for US and China to succeed. Sorry, but this is incorrect. US and China (≈50% of global emissions) can alone crash 1.5°C limit. Planet Earth is NOT big enough for US and China under current economic logic
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We came to Glasgow following a path to Disaster (2.7°C). We leave Glasgow on a path to Danger (just below 2°C). Road from Glasgow is more action, more ambition, on finance, equity, 50% targets for 2030 & net-zero by 2050, and nature climate solutions.
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Climate experts warn world leaders 1.5C is ‘real science’, not just talking point
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"We can today say scientifically, without any hesitation, that anything beyond 2°C of global warming is nothing but catastrophic. Every tenth of a degree matters." Important exchange with @UNFCCC & @rkyte365 on unpacking the #ClimateEmergency.
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The Final Warning Bell from Science. We are in deep trouble while having a final chance to land a manageable future but it will take total phase-out of fossil-fuels and build natural and new carbon sinks. Any good news? Zero carbon gives better world #CCAG
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Replacing just 20 % of #beef consumption with microbial protein could slash #deforestation by 56 %! Congrats to this very important new piece of research by PIK's @FHumpenoeder et al. Full study @Nature here:
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Without biodiversity rich ecosystems on land we would have exceeded the 1.5°C Paris climate limit already today, with devastating impacts on all societies. We URGENTLY need biosphere stewardship that secures carbon sinks and builds resilience
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This is a deep deep concern. Despite climate emergency, the United States, Canada, and Norway "pumping more oil than ever" via @priceofoil.
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The pandemic is a zoonotic virus spill-over from animals to humans, caused by unsustainable farming and trading wild-life and domestic animals in a globally networked world. Sustainability key to reduced future pandemic risks
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US back in Paris Agreement. We now have a G3 in Climate - the three largest economic powers - US, EU and China, all adopting science based targets - NET-ZERO 2050 (no later than 2060 in China). This can tip the logic in the world.
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We need to stop gambling with our planet - and our well-being - now. Sustainability & solving the climate & ecological crises is about justice, security, equity, & peace. The (only) path to prosperity and dignity for all. The alternative, brings disaster.
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17.23 °C is 3°C warmer than 14±0.5°C Earth over 12000 years, fr last Ice Age to Industrial Revolution. Now, we have 3rd Super-El Nino in 15 years. 91% of heat due to global warming is in oceans, reinforcing El Nino, causing massive heat & weather extremes.
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Regeringens klimathandlingsplan bryter mot Dubai (att röra sig bort från kol/olja/gas detta kritiska årtionde i linje med vetenskapen). Den bryter mot svensk klimatlag, & missar EUs ESR 2030 gräns (63%). Detta är allvarligt. Knuffa till 2045 går inte. Kommande 7 år är avgörande.
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World on brink of five ‘disastrous’ climate tipping points, study finds
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These are the kind of developments that must now stop. Adani is bidding for new coal fields in ancient forests of India. The same company that hope to run the massive Carmichael coal mine expansion in Australia.
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Lomborg is so wrong, it is truly mind boggling, but most provocative is his claim that prolonging the destructive fossil-fuel era is needed to salvage the vulnerable - as if clean, decentralised renewable energy threatens the poor
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This cannot be allowed to happen There is no room left on Earth. Canada must take its responsibility for our commons
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For the first time Patient Earth goes through a full Health Check. The verdict is clear - the patient is in critical condition. The 1st Planetary health check gives us the quantitative diagnosis required to guide the transformations for a safe landing
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For years, one of the best climate models in the world came from an oil company. And then, they spent the next several decades discrediting it
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Big decision in France today. Now it is not only scientifically settled that emissions need to be reduced by at least 50% between 2020-2030, it is also illegal to fail! As French court condemns government for climate inaction
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Climate change, deforestation and other human threats are driving the rainforest towards a tipping point. Science is racing to chart the Amazon’s future.
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It is not climate science that scares the world. It is the inability of societies to solve the problem. Science shows 1.5°C is a global Safety limit. We must hold on to it, and rise to the challenge. Not fall into destructive fatalism and inertia @ProSyn
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Not only is Finnish forest carbon sink collapsing, the government counts on the sink to match fossil emissions for carbon neutrality 2035. This does not work. Climate models count on both forest sinks AND phase out of fossil fuels. No room for offsetting
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World will look back at 2023 as year humanity exposed its inability to tackle climate crisis. If we continue along the current path, 2023 [the worst extreme year ever] will first be accepted as a new normal, then looked back upon as a gentle and cool year
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Welcome to Ground Zero of the global climate crisis. Australia Is Committing Climate Suicide
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Patient Earth is in critical condition, losing resilience and showing signs of unhealth, manifested as droughts, fires, heatwaves, floods, storms. Cure requires diagnostics. Here my thinking on how a Planetary Health Check supports path to prosperity
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Devastating hurricanes, heatwaves, floods, and wildfires - we are entering uncharted waters, and cannot exclude environmental chaos as the 2024 State of the Climate Report shows. Important new report out now.
More extreme weather events and fossil fuel emissions at all-time high: 25 of 35 planetary vital signs are at record extremes according to the 2024 #StateoftheClimate report by @WilliamJRipple, PIK's @jrockstrom & @rahmstorf, @MichaelEMann and others:
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Corona crisis is a manifestation of the Anthropocene. So do not cheat yourself. Rising from this crisis, requires building resilient and sustainable societies. This includes zero carbon and zero loss of nature #planetaryemergency
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We've reached a global mean surface temperature rise of 1.2°C, the warmest temperature on Earth over the past 100,000 years. This heat is starting to cause social & economic impacts across the world. My latest scientific assessment of rising Earth risks:
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Science confirms Pope Francis despair in his new Apostolic Exhortation #LaudatoDeum that we live on a "suffering planet" and "may be nearing a breaking point". "This is a global social issue and one intimately related to the dignity of human life.".
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While the heat shocks get worse, in Europe & China, science finds evidence that rapid melting of the Arctic grinds the Jet Stream to slow and split, making bad things worse by blocking weather systems. This is a key insight + 1.2°C leads to 40-50°C shocks
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Crucial new paper: Planetary Boundaries science provides clear evidence that we cannot solve the climate crisis / stay within the 1.5°C limit without returning to the safe operating space within Biosphere boundaries. We need to consider all boundaries together to safeguard Earth.
🆕Pioneering #PlanetaryBoundaries science: As a vital framework for addressing the #climatecrisis and ensuring humanity’s future, the full story of Planetary Boundaries - co-founded by PIK Director @jrockstrom - is now being told from the beginning.⬇️.
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Important to realise, so far we have underestimated climate impacts on humans. The Great Climate Migration Has Begun
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(Försök) till morgondopp i Almedalen…Det är inte bara klimatet som måste in på IVA, Östersjön likaså. Ännu en algblomning i vårt övergödda o överfiskade varma hav. Vi förväntar oss vallöften om hur vi accelererar omställning till hållbarhet
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Incredibly dangerous, and caused by us. Deadly Indian heatwave made 30 times more likely by climate crisis. Good that Guardian gets it right - this is warmest heat EVER recorded in India, not the warmest in 120 years - it is when measurements started.
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Failure to Slow Warming Will Set Off Climate ‘Tipping Points,’ Scientists Say
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If anyone doubted, here even more evidence that the tipping element - Arctic sea ice - is approaching a threshold where ice free summers - causing warming feedbacks, is a high probability risk. New study shows Ice thinning twice as fast as thought
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While climate #tippingpoints are coming closer beyond 1.5°C global warming, some positive social tipping points are slowly emerging. They are key to hold off catastrophic climate impacts and take us to a safe landing.
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New Netflix documentary coming out on the Science of our Future on Earth. Please have a look at Netflix Official Trailer, and share with friends!
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Extreme heat threatens social stability and drives us towards irreversible changes. Let’s use the warmest temperatures ever recorded on Earth as burning push for change
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What happens in Brazil is key to all citizens on Earth, given that The Amazon Rainforest is one of Earth's Tipping Elements and thus a Global commons. Analysis: Bolsonaro election loss could cut Brazilian Amazon deforestation by 89%
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Frågan Pål Jonson, regeringen & ÖB måste ställa sig, är vilken risk är störst, att Ryssland invaderar eller att Golfströmmen kollapsar? Båda vore totala katastrofer för vårt land, forskning visar att AMOC kollaps inte kan uteslutas. Bredare expertis tack!
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It is finally out! Our Nature Review paper on the 15 year journey of advancing Planetary Boundary science. Progress, impacts, uptake (in science, policy, cities, countries and business) and future challenges
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New paper! Redefining the Global Commons from (old) "systems owned by nobody and thereby by everyone", to (new) all systems that regulate the stability of Earth. Includes all tipping elements. The planetary commons A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth []
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Big Mistake. Geologists reject the Anthropocene as Earth’s new epoch — after 15 years of debate. But geologists have often found themselves on the wrong side of scientific evidence, e.g., on Anthropogenic climate change
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"Is 1.5°C still realistic?" Is the wrong question. The question is "Is 1.5°C necessary?". The answer from science is increasingly a clear YES. The world must therefore never give up on doing all it can to hold this physical limit
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Our future depends on safeguarding Earth resilience. Our new paper in PNAS shows evidence that we are at risk of crossing a Planetary Tipping Point already at 2 C taking us toward Hothouse Earth. Avoid it? Transform to Planetary Stewardship #HothouseEarth
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Despite policy commitments, the world is not reducing unsustainable pressures on the planet. Time is running out as we approach the halfway point of the decisive decade.@WilliamJRipple's and my view on the climate crisis & the fierce urgency of now.
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For the first time, with @SafeJustPlanet, we present quantifiable numbers to assess the state of our planet in terms of Earth System stability and resilience, but also in terms of human well-being, equity and justice. New @Nature paper.
📝 4 years of research. 🔎 50+ world experts from social + natural sciences. 🌍 safe and just boundaries to help us create a #SafeAndJust future. Explore #EarthSystemBoundaries with #PIK director @jrockstrom published today in @Nature
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BIG DAY IN SWEDEN. Not primarily that Preem decided to stop what would have been Swedens biggest fossil-fuel expansion. But the reason why - it makes no economic sense! The writing is on the wall. This will send ripples on the world scene
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The Amazon rainforest protects all of us - the planetary commons framework offers a new governance systems to protect it and other major Earth systems. We must collectively care and contribute to maintain the planetary commons.
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