Joe Shipman
@joe_shipman
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I’m a math guy who knows stuff and can write OK
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Please read this entire interview.
If Assange is extradited, then neither the U.K. nor the U.S.A. is a free country.
Anyone whose reply on this thread contains sophistry is going to regret it very much indeed. I will not permit anyone to hinder honest discussion on this issue.
Thanks to
@exberlinermag
for this powerful interview on the truth about
#Assange
! For the UK judiciary, this is THE test of integrity, credibility or demise. It’s obvious to any conscientious lawyer that this extradition cannot lawfully go forward.
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@SarahTheHaider
The responses purporting to show you a symmetry you missed fail. Women are kinder to men they find attractive too, but your point is not about kindness but self-awareness.
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The problem with the Rogan show is that he wants to interview both sides but one side has declared that they never want to be interviewed by anyone who ever interviews the other side.
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Confirms my impression that Harry and Meghan are on the good side here, an impression based on noticing the same media propaganda techniques this article details
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“Imagining Harry Potter Without Its Creator”
To the New York Times, J.K. Rowling is now She Who Must Not Be Named.
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This is an extremely INSTRUCTIVE thread.
1) Balloux makes statistical errors
2) Taleb points them out, calls him names
3) Balloux responds ONLY to names, does not address technical points
4) Balloux commenters engage in hatefest against Taleb AS IF Balloux had won the argument
😂
3) Even without fat tails "BS-Frankie"
@BallouxFrancois
is failing elemtary statistics (Sat 101): comparing 2 variables with different variances (one very low, other very very high).
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I disagree with
@nntaleb
about the main source of the biased media coverage for HCQ therapy for Covid-19. He thinks Big Pharma don’t want a cheap drug they don’t own to win, I blame Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Both contribute, but in the USA I think the latter is more powerful.
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@ScottAdamsSays
Define “beaten”. I object to this tweet as sophistry.
There is no conflict between having a vaccine to try to prevent infections and having drugs to deal with infections that do occur.
Unfortunately a conflict was ARTIFICALLY CREATED by rules about EUAs.
Don’t perpetuate it!
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@cafreiman
It doesn’t need to be “casually dismissed”, but it’s not a difficult question either. Why do people still find ancient poetry and drama still worth reading? Because ancient writers correctly figured out SOME things about human nature, but by comparison, very little about physics.
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THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT F***ING STORY OF THE LAST 4 YEARS!!
It has just been DECLASSIFIED that Brennan Hillary Obama Comey and Strzok PLANNED THE RUSSIA HOAX IN SUMMER 2016!!
This proves EXACTLY what we’ve been saying all along.
Pass it on. Don’t let ANYONE ignore this.
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This is extremely interesting and instructive NOT because of Fauci or the animal cruelty, which are newsworthy but familiar.
The interesting thing is the careful dissection of how the disinformation campaign was constructed and the precise logical fallacies at its core.
How the Corporate Media Launched a Disinformation Campaign to Protect Fauci
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Short version of what’s actually happening for people too scared to admit that the media always lie to them:
1) Dems stole WI and MI
2) Dems stopped counting in PA NV AZ GA and NC to prevent Trump from winning them and figure out how to steal more votes than originally stolen.
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@GeoffRBennett
@ggreenwald
(1/2) Key sentences not noticed by the reporter:
“However, hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, was more likely to be prescribed to patients with more severe disease, as assessed by baseline ventilatory status and metabolic and hematologic parameters.”
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This crisis provides an excuse for employers to get rid of “bullshit jobs”. They won’t rehire those upon whose jobs other jobs or the bottom line do not depend, without having to worry about the SJW criticism and Twitter mobbing they would have faced from doing that unilaterally.
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@nntaleb
might say that they didn’t “bend the rules”, they just took into account the systematic underestimation historical data gives of risks in a fat-tailed distribution, using different and better mathematical rules.
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“We have two parties here, and only two. One is the evil party, and the other is the stupid party…I’m very proud to be a member of the stupid party…Occasionally, the two parties get together to do something that’s both evil and stupid. That’s called bipartisanship.”
—M.S. Evans
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Balloux’s criticism of Taleb’s tone may be fair, but his dodging the technical points is reprehensible, and his *retreat into credentialism* is pathetic and a sure marker that he is not only wrong in this case but an idiot in general.
“You’re wrong because I have a Ph.D.” 🤦🏼♂️
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@gummibear737
This is very unfair.
ON PRINCIPLE, I only criticize people for what they tweet, NOT FOR WHAT THEY DON’T TWEET.
If I have *nothing original to add to what many people are already saying*, I will not be pressured to jump in just to demonstrate that I’m on the right side.
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This is an very evil article.
It may not be apparent at first why I make such a serious charge. But I stand by it. It is viciously slanted with sophistical language and manipulative presentation, even though the truth can be discerned anyway.
@nntaleb
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@nntaleb
(2/2)
arguing against a position I hold on the basis that other people who hold it are wrong about different issues, with no necessary logic connecting those to my position, is unpersuasive, to put it mildly.
I have called this the “all my opponents are the same person” fallacy.
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MATH PUZZLE FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT
@nntaleb
He is too busy saving countries from listening to credentialed morons.
You cut a circular disk of paper radially to make wedges to be taped into conical paper cups. To maximize total volume you do 2 cups; what should the angles be?
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@ScottAdamsSays
(1/2)
As a professional statistician: very credible. It’s becoming clearer and clear that early HCQ studies were designed to fail and misreported when they didn’t. Even I, cynical as I am, didn’t think they would sacrifice tens of thousands of patients’ lives for this, because
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@ScottAdamsSays
There is a subtlety here.
Ordinary variants are reduced by vaccines which reduce incidence of infection.
But “leaky vaccines”, which permit infection but reduce severity, allow viruses to evolve within the vaccinated population; can theoretically lead to ADE or Marek phenomenon.
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@nntaleb
(1/2)
I oppose “the same people” arguments on principle. They are usually misused and based on oversimplified internal models of other people’s affiliations.
I believe exactly one (1) of your five (5) statements and see the other four as mostly or entirely wrong. Therefore,
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What is an "Arkose challenge"? My Twitter account just got suspended for 10 seconds because of one, I had to click a button to get it restored. I guess they saw me making a lot of posts about voting and were worried I was a disinfo bot but being a disinfo human was OK.
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@GeoffRBennett
@ggreenwald
(2/2) “Thus, as expected, increased mortality was observed in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, both with and without azithromycin.”
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@AriDavidPaul
@gummibear737
It isn’t hyperbole if there is math.
Total COVID deaths worldwide approaching 4 million. Therapeutics like Ivermectin and HCQ have been censored and suppressed all along. Even if only 1/4 of those deaths could have been prevented, can you name a crime since 1946 that killed 1M?
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After attending a funeral in Princeton, also paid my respects to Kurt.
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I warned from the beginning not to trust unevidenced atrocity claims. This piece shows how incredibly stupidly people accept mere SAY-SO as long as it is typed by a mainstream news reporter.
The worst kind of lie of all is lying to get support for a war.
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No, of course it doesn’t make sense to mandate a vaccine that doesn’t stop transmission. The vaxed are more of a danger to the unvaxed than vice versa.
Your mistake is thinking that whether it makes sense matters to them. Power is one goal. Demoralizing the sensible is another.
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@ScottAdamsSays
None of the above. “Someone who is personally worried about the virus”, which isn’t necessarily any of those things.
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I have recently criticized math used by people who are
1) underestimating COVID dangers
2) exaggerating COVID dangers
3) underestimating vaccine dangers
4) exaggerating vaccine dangers
The common factor is bad math. But people keep assuming I’m motivated by being on a “side”.
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I was originally inclined to give Ukrainians the benefit of the doubt on this incident, but the depravity and gaslighting by Podolyak is horrible.
Note the inconsistency—to him, Crimea is Ukraine, but Crimeans are Russians and don’t matter.
Zelensky's key advisor taking credit for the murder of kids on a beach in Crimea under the pretext that they are human shield...
Where have I heard that one before? 🤔
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@AlexBerenson
That’s a year and a half ago. Vaccine injuries occur much sooner than that, according to the data I’ve seen. So this is just scaremongering.
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@Porkchop_EXP
Good point if your assertion about Europeans gaining weight is true, but what does “without changing their eating habits” mean? TOURISTS notoriously have bad eating habits. If you have data on Europeans here for longer than a vacation, please link to it for us!
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@ScottAdamsSays
(2/2)
It was utterly inevitable that the facts would come out in the rest of the world and those who committed such evil deceptions for monetary and political advantage in the US would be exposed, but I forgot that no one with power in the US gets held accountable for anything.
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The Left Has A Pedophilia Problem, And It's Out In The Open
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@ScottAdamsSays
This is a good thread but it is about the later intractable stage when a teenager has already been f***ed up. What is the USA in 2022 doing wrong to have so many such young men, compared with other places now or the USA in earlier times?
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Very interesting history: the 1973 coup in Chile was popular and requested by the Chilean congress because Allende was extremely bad; the Chilean military shut the USA out of it because they didn’t trust the CIA.
Ignore the idiot commenters who ignored what Lira actually wrote.
Let's talk about Chile, Allende and Pinochet.
When Salvador Allende won the election of 1970 to become President of Chile, he won it with a plurality—the center and right-wing candidates got a combined 63% of the vote.
Allende got only 37% of the vote in 1970.
1/
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I’m a bit surprised
@nntaleb
hasn’t weighed in on the RobinHood/GME fiasco. I guess from his point of view it’s too trivially stupid to need explication: if you must short, clip the left tail with out-of-the-money call options.
The hedgies used “call politician” options instead.
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Short version:
This is one of the most ill-conceived and meritless libel suits I have ever read about, and that it has taken 8 years to reach this point, without already having been thrown out, is a disgrace.
“The process is the punishment.”
Mann should pay Steyn’s costs.
Mark Steyn has filed an eviscerating and well-informed Motion for Summary Judgement in the Michael Mann vanity libel suit.
with memorandum
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@ScottAdamsSays
(2/2)
I won’t allow any characterization of what I have said as “guessing”. The difference: with COVID, Russiagate, and many other recent controversies, not only have I been shown to be right, I have been *right for the right reasons*.
If your *arguments* hold up, you get credit!
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@nntaleb
@davidboxenhorn
Reminds me of a saying:
School gives you the lesson, then the test.
Life gives you the test, then the lesson.
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According to the New York Times, Lebanese and Jews are “white” while Palestinians are “people of color”.
They also think Basques (!!!) are “people of color”, despite their having more ancient European roots than anyone except Sardinians, because they live in Spain.
😆🤓🤔🧐🤡😡
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@JohnJcollias
@Rasmussen_Poll
So what? Does that mean that therefore the person talking about the suspicious 7-1-7-1-7-1 pattern does not exist? Are you insinuating that Rasmussen made her up?
Stop blowing smoke.
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Cognitive biases are shortcuts. Most worked better in ancient times than now.
But it’s not simply that they don’t work now: they are exploited against us.
The most exploitable bias is assuming that things occur in the proportions in which they are brought to your attention.
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Dear
@jack
,
In my opinion, the election was stolen.
That is my opinion. It may be changed by facts or arguments, but no amount of suppressing people will change my opinion, because I know my reasons, it did not form by osmosis or absorption.
Does stating that endanger anyone?
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STATISTICAL INFERENCE PUZZLE
@nntaleb
Is “2 false positives in 401 trials” consistent with “50 false positives in 3300 trials”?
What is a good null hypothesis, and what is the p-value?
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@nntaleb
As usual, though, Friedman is so obtuse he can’t even write about it properly, his headline “playing Russian Roulette with our lives” makes it sound like he isn’t aware of what the normal stakes in Russian Roulette are.
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Which label in English best describes people with the following specific trait?
“Enthusiastically favors any policies restricting the freedom of other people, because of a desire to be on a side that gets to exercise power over other people.”
There needs to be a word for this.
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As close to a “smoking gun” as we are likely to get.
If this is correct, the reason that Baric, Daszak, and Fauci should be swinging from lampposts is NOT that they conceived this, but that they *covered it up* in Jan 2020, hindering effective response.
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It seems likely that Omicron is not only less deadly, but completely unprevented by the vaccine.
The vaccine may make it less severe than when it hits unvaccinated people, but the SPREADING is worse from the vaccinated, which means that reacting by mandating boosters is idiotic!
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@nntaleb
Of course Krugman is wrong on the merits. But in my observations of Internet discourse, the relationship between repeating one’s views multiple times in all-caps and being wrong about them is enormously strong, and it’s a good time-saver to rely on it.
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3 reasons
@nntaleb
is wrong that BTC has an absorbing barrier at 0:
1) like Confederate dollars, historical value, will be held as a curiosity
2) like Monopoly money, can be sold because it facilitates a game people like to play
3) like a Warhol print, aesthetic value for nerds
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@meanyspetrini
@SallyMayweather
You failed to notice that there was a number for 2020, in which we had COVID but no vaccine, as well as for 2021 in which we had both. If the vaccine was protective we wouldn't have a gigantic increase from 2020 to 2021.
She should have given a source, but you're innumerate.
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Blue checkmark idiot of the day.
She thinks you should take every day that his stock gained, and add up all those daily gains, ignoring all the losses, and then pay tax on THAT amount. That’s the only way she could reach her “$270 BILLION” number.
Elon Musk made $36 BILLION in one day, but wants to brag about paying an $11 billion tax bill.
Oh yeah, he also added more than $270 BILLION in wealth just since the pandemic started.
Time for the rich to pay their fair share.
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Some words people should use more often:
“I don’t understand.”
“That doesn’t make sense to me.”
“Can you please explain that, I’m not seeing it.”
It’s not only that this is politeness, and good epistemic humility.
It’s also a great way to spot BSers, who react badly to it.
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@ScottAdamsSays
Scott, who do you mean by “anti-vaxxers”?
1) people against all vaccines?
2) people against specific COVID vaccines?
3) people against *mandating* specific COVID vaccines?
Please clarify.
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Warning:
If you state that vaccines provide better immunity to COVID than having recovered does, because of the fraudulent study, and I see it, you are going to regret it very much. It doesn’t matter if you were simply trusting authority, the fake math means I take it personally.
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@ScottAdamsSays
(1/2)
As a professional statistician, I understand how to evaluate a process and judge a decision made based on information available at the time, even if things look different in hindsight.
What’s different this time: much more ACTIVE INTENTIONAL misinformation.
Nonetheless,
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Twitter advice:
1) keep the discussion to propositions not people. A proposition is a complete sentence which is a matter of fact (true or false) or a matter of opinion (you may agree or disagree)
2) check if there is another way to interpret words you are replying negatively to!
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@nntaleb
The most frustrating behavior is when a single data point is enough to blow up their argument but they refuse to acknowledge it.
Project NYC nationwide you get a million deaths. Burden of proof is on people who assume anything lower, especially those who talk about herd immunity.
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It’s hard to process how evil this is: even though governments admit that the vaccine is *occasionally* fatal, even when they confirm that in a specific individual case it *was* fatal, relatives of the person who died *in that confirmed case* are punished for talking about it.
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@SharylAttkisson
Has anyone from the Trump DOJ expressed any regret or apology for what the Obama DOJ did to you?
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Calling it now:
In 6 months, rates of myocarditis and fatal heart attacks among young people will be so much higher than the pre-COVID baseline that the mRNA vaccines will be banned from being used on young people in most of the world’s countries, and lawsuits will halt it here.
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@BrianTh37895972
“He's supposedly leaving in 11 days anyway but they are trying to rush through a new impeachment and then a Senate trial. In 11 days?
DC is being locked down. They're **not telling you** the real reason for the sudden rush to impeach President Trump.”
So what’s the real reason?
fear of declassification
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bar Trump from 2024 run
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secure Biden election win
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Can people please use language more carefully?
1) booster shots are more shots of the *same* vaccine
2) we don’t get regular vaccinations against “the” flu, we get *different* shots in years when there is a new flu.
Is there a precedent for indefinitely recurring *boosters*?
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@ScottAdamsSays
It’s simple: they don’t believe their plans to benefit are destructive.
It’s a constant lesson of history that people in charge can fuck up without understanding how destructive their actions are: the qualities needed for attaining power and for wielding it wisely don’t match.
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This argument between Barnes and Berenson is shocking and sad.
Berenson, a victim of censorship and persecution himself, still can’t admit that whether this is legally wrong doesn’t depend on whether the victim of the persecution is a good or a bad person.
Celebrating weaponized lawfare, including denial of due process & the right to trial by jury, against those you disagree with only invites those same tools being against you. You would think a guy previously banned by social media based on the
#AlexJones
precedent, would know it.
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(1/2)
In the VERY long run, the primary lessons learned from this pandemic will be:
1) suppression of discussion about policy and science makes society so vulnerable that it should be regarded in the same way that war crimes currently are
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It still bothers me A LOT that, when the two bogus papers came out in the spring of 2020 saying that the virus was not from a lab, and I and others pointed out how obviously full of shit their arguments were, those arguments were still ENOUGH to shut all lab leak discussion down!
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@nntaleb
(2/2)
I’ll spend as much time as needed, offline, patiently discussing my reasons, but note
1) if I see fraud, I must shout “fraud”, so “get over it” isn’t enough, new facts or better arguments are required
2) the forces poisoning this discussion are like those that attacked HCQ.
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@nntaleb
For the obtuse:
Not every unjust harm one does to another is punishable by appeal to legitimate authority. When it is not, the offender has not reformed, and the wronged person has the capability, revenge is not only appropriate for personal reputation, it is a social obligation.
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@ScottAdamsSays
The BIG news from the audit was that Maricopa illegally deleted the logs and 280k ballot images from the voting machines, so there is no way of verifying that the ballots eventually provided to the auditors were the ones the machines saw on 11/3, or that those weren’t “adjusted”.
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A tennis game is played to “best of 6” points, if there is a tie then more points are played 2 at a time. Your probably of winning each point is p. For which p can you be leading a game but still exactly as likely to win the game as you were at the beginning of it? For
@nntaleb
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@PolitiKurd
This tweet fails to summarize the facts properly, making it sound like he was deliberately drowned. The traffickers responsible for the illegal voyage which capsized leading to his death were indeed negligently responsible for this consequence but the death was still an accident.
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A key sign someone is a “conspiracy theorist” in the bad sense (someone with a mental problem not just someone who rejects an official narrative): they change the subject when confronted with the BEST argument against their claim.
If instead they acknowledge it, pay attention.
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The tortured logic by which they agree that Robert the Bruce was “racist”:
1) he was Christian
2) although he never met a Muslim he said the crusades against Muslims were ok
3) some Muslims were from North Africa
4) other parts of Africa had black people
QED!
After Robert the Bruce's statue was defaced by BLM, the National Trust for Scotland apologized to blacks for the medieval hero's racism. He would be proud to see how his fighting spirit lives on in today's Scots, whose first urge is to apologize to vandals
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You’re an idiot who doesn’t understand the difference between addition and multiplication.
Almost 400,000 people drown every year—that’s over 40 drownings every hour of every day. We need to lock down pools, lakes and oceans indefinitely.
Stay dry. Stay safe.
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Whether or not it was legal or wise for Fauci to lie to the US about the virus coming from gain-of-function research he knew about, that’s only a PR issue. But by lying to Congress and Trump and hiding what he knew, he hobbled attempts to fight the pandemic.
THAT is unforgivable.
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WHY PROPAGANDA WORKS
People aren’t trained to habitually keep track of why what they know is known. They only remember the thing they believe, and not how they came to learn it.
When unable to justify a belief that has been challenged, instead of reconsidering it, they get angry!
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@The__Red_Baron
@MartinKulldorff
@AnnCoulter
@SenRonJohnson
It’s not about preferring to get infected over getting the vaccine, it’s about the refusal to exempt people WHO HAVE ALREADY RECOVERED.
Nice straw man there. Why don’t you state whether you think someone who already recovered from COVID ought to be made to get vaccinated anyway?
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I have no problem whatsoever with people who want Biden to win or who hate Trump. But if you want to pretend that the above are not true because you don’t want to admit there are dishonest people on your side, don’t speak to me or you will regret it.
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@nntaleb
(1/2)
Nassim, I have indeed spent a large amount of time reasoning about this, and I have been professionally involved with elections for 18 years. I have seen enough fraud in previous elections to know the signs. Those signs alone aren’t enough, but the coverups are disturbing.
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I finally grasp why people cut off friendships over disagreements.
If people understand each other’s reasons, they can agree to disagree. But you can’t explain your reasons to a friend if you don’t understand them yourself.
Many more people don’t, these days. Cultlike thinking.
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This is a massive “sell” signal.
“Very slim” is not “none”, admitting it exists is the first step of a process.
The market is on the roof and can’t come down....
FED'S POWELL: THERE IS A VERY SLIM RISK OF A REPEAT OF THE FINANCIAL CRASH OF 2008.
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WARNING BAD MATH ALERT
(1/2)
This article is from a stupid right-wing website, and is the best example of Simpson’s paradox I have ever seen. The key table on page 18 of the report they link shows that by combining age groups the effect is reversed!
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Just canceled going to a party Saturday. Many people I know have come down with COVID in the last week, and on Monday I am flying out to spend Christmas week with my mother, the timing is exactly wrong and risks my infecting her before I know I’m infected.
Not afraid for myself.
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@HeyRhettBarrett
@drdavidsamadi
You lie.
They don’t “directly contradict”, they used different protocols. What works is the cocktail of HCQ+Zinc and/or Azithromycin, given EARLY, in low doses. The studies where it did badly used HCQ alone, or late, or in toxically high doses.
I made many posts explaining this.
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“When you’re little it’s psyops about Santa and the Tooth Fairy. When you go to school it’s psyops about your government being a democracy and the news being true. When you grow up it’s psyops about capitalism totally working and the economy being real.”
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