JJ
@jmt415
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Daytrader and Co-Founder,
Houston, TX
Joined March 2011
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For ppl to thinking about making the jump 2 full time trading make sure u have a big nest egg. Most ppl don’t understand drawdowns can last months (I made $0 summer2021) and while that’s part of the game, you can’t execute your system correctly when ur thinking about the money
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$IFBD faded over 70% today,
A likely reason is the Fundex securities purchase agreement.
It's not very common in SPAs for the shares to be priced based on the stock price for days following the purchase notice date.
This incentivizes the buyer to short the stock lower.
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Here's the part of the filing that shows $EBS can't use their ATM:
Always good to double check these things so you don't assume there's dilution when there isn't
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ARCI these dilution plays are often the best because they dont get as crowded the as stocks with warrants/ATM laid out blatantly for everyone to see in a 424
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first day I've ever had two 100% winners.
$DBGI was pure luck, I forgot to put sell orders and saw it at $9 - bought when CEO had said last month they'd start putting out PRs 😅
$HOLO idea explained here - researched it via
@AskEdgarIO
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This type of trade opportunity comes along a few times a year max...
$ICU
Since November they had been teasing an FDA approval,
Ultimately releasing the news today,
Making it one of my best trades to date.
Here's how I traded it both long and short:
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$CERO Breaking news can have a huge impact on the supply/demand
But a lot of 'news' is recycled or already known.
Here's how to find out:
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$TPHS planning to delist. These ones usually great faders as holders look to exit before delisting
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Bought some crypto for the first time ever $BTC and $ETH - this can only mean one thing:
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Which SEC filings do you look at to find potential hidden supply that might cause a stock to fade?
Let's take a look at $MLEC from yesterday:
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last couple weeks not so easy. Lo vol and range, choppy - Its like poker when I get a run of cold cards -need to remind myself I dont have to try and bank what i did when the cards were hot-its simply about taking what u can get and minimizing losses, bc the cards WILL COME AGAIN
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$ICU playing out nicely
Had a positive catalyst pushing it up, now a negative one pushing it down.
Got close to sub $0.50s after hours, so out half of the swing short.
What's more, if it can't hold over $1 for 6 more days, it likely fades hard with a potential reverse split looming (Source: (Insights screenshot from today)
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How to find hidden dilution pt. 2
Did you know $BRFH had been converting debt into shares of common stock?
Here's how I found out:
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$FFIE we've seen a similar agenda with many other cheapies like $TTOO, $ICU, $NVOS, $CEI
Not always in this exact order, but goes something like this:
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the main thing to remember during “manias” whether it’s meme stocks, crypto, marijuana, AI, china, etc is that it brings in a TON of new market participants
Don’t expect setups you trade everyday to play out the same way because the supply/demand dynamics are inherently
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Check out AskEdgar's new screener for quick summaries of the news for the morning's top gainers like $FFIE, $CRKN, $AKAN, etc
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$NVOS catalysts & key dates-
Trying to think of a way to put this so I don't get sued, but I don't think they're being truthful in their PRs. Just my opinion, not a recommendation to buy or sell
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$MLGO tried the short on the morning reject, but given the history of manipulated action I planned on being done with it if it played any games past 10am. Tried a quick long EOD to see if it would break out
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How do you know when a company has incentive to keep the stock price up?
Let's take a look at $ONMD
The answer lies in the filings...
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Got crushed by
@alexandravbotez
in blitz chess on Friday in Vegas. Thought I was doing okay until she “sacked all her pieces and hoped for the best”😂 I lost bc I was up all night playing poker, not bc she’s better than me 😜
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Reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator again.
@TheShortBear
inspired me to continuously study historical accounts like this
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$FFIE have they been converting debt to common stock?
Since they are late filing their reports, we only have info up until last November, but here's what Ask Edgar said: (this is the chat with multiple filings feature which we're releasing later this week)
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Roaring Kitty almost became a billionaire all from one stock.
But is $GME capable of a ‘transformation’ as he says?
I spent time looking through the SEC filings to find out.
Here's what I found:
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$MULN looks like they're still waiting on the US government ruling on their EV cargo vans (after a final determination is issued by the U.S. General Services Administration)
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$ONMD short yesterday and long today. Ironically I wouldn't have won on the long today if it didn't lose and observe the price action yesterday 😅
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You see this practice time and time again, especially ahead of an offering. Prop, fill short into the squeeze out, prop, fill short, then dump the long when the short is filled - Wyckoff wrote about this 100 years ago (not necessarily ahead of an offering) but same method
@RickyAnalog_STN
was thinking something similar on $VISL. Yes, both practices totally against the rules, but that doesn't stop these guys. Even violating rule 105 is like a measly $100k or so penalty, IF they get caught lol
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$FFIE lots of negatives in their 10-K that came out yesterday.
At this rate it'll be down more than 90% from the highs soon enough
- Issue a ton of convertible debt and/or warrants
- pump the stock
- gain shareholder approval to issue more than 19.99% of the O/S
- pump the stock with a PR
- unload the stock
- then reverse split
Usually ending up 90% down from the highs
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Decent year but gave back a lot. Took advantage of the hot cycles but overstayed my welcome too many times. Tried to go for a home run EOY but didn’t work. Here’s what worked:
1.) Buying sympathies during hot sector cycle (AI, China - earlier in the year)
2.) Buying ahead of
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Only 1 year long contracts too 😬 $SOUN
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@SmartMoneyPug
@EpicaCapital
@MahketVoodoo
@elkwood66
$LMPX doesn't have a boss man like this at the helm though... $LFIN 😜
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$STSS gaps on rehashed news often fail because there are no big buyers
You can see from AskEdgar how many times this deal was mentioned in the past (it's cut off but it was 6!):
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How to predict a stock's future movement using historical price action.
It's rare to use one stock's history to anticipate another's moves, but here's how I did it with $HOLO to predict $MLGO:
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Jesse Livermore explaining why it’s so difficult to trade successfully without adequate capital
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Without SEC filings you never know the full picture.
$AKTS is a prime example of that
Here's how you can anticipate offerings like $AKTS...
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$PETZ $10m offering @ $0.64 w/ 200% warrant coverage. Drops to $1 after hours before going to 8 bucks. There probably isn’t any manipulation happening here
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$STSS the $35M agreement from Friday wasn't new it's an update to the September 2023 Nephron agreement.
They actually reduced the purchase price as you can see here:
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Deerfield involved in both MLNT and AXGT and some similar tricks on both, near an area of interest ($5.15 and $8)
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Interestingly, the selling appeared to stop around the average conversion price
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$XSPA the writing was on the wall, but not really any spots to take a position. If i had the borrow i would've lost (maybe b/e) on that late afternoon rip. Holding o/n would be costly. Then gap down on 0 volume 😥
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@daytradingzoo
I trade both systematically (intraday) and discretionary (swinging). They both have their upsides and downsides.
The high RR strategy you have to think of more as a seasonal job. That doesn’t mean I’m not involved in the markets on a daily basis - if I didn’t day trade I’d
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Moral of the story - when you have a big chart like this and understand the agenda/catalysts driving the movement, you can extract a ton of value playing both sides.
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$KWE risky long with the pending F-1, but these can also turn into great squeezes when they keep holding, since there are usually a lot of shorts loading up for the offering (still need an amendment though)
Down a lot now after Orin Hirschman 13g/a yesterday (reported he sold
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Going into the news I was prepared to sell (black chart) and then short (white chart) the news today, thinking that many longs like myself would be looking to sell into the announcement (not to mention the dilution, but I'll save that for another thread).
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$AGBA I tried longing this on Thursday because I thought with the outlandish valuation it would bring in demand like we saw with the $APM news last month
😥
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Decent long on $MNPR
If you're wondering why a stock won't break down,
Check the news/filings to see if there's a potential catalyst,
Longs start to get the 'diamond hands' and the stock holds up longer.
Here's what I found:
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@Michael_Katz11
the first one is the 10/23/18 8k (shareholder vote) and the second one is the 10k. So theyve been convertible for a while, but first day with any real liquidity. The cherry on top is these guys also connected to the shady $LIVE guys lol
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@Acruz_2018
Check out Anna Coulling volume price analysis - great book on volume analysis
@Michael_Katz11
recommended
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Will be interesting to see where it goes from here. These types of convertible note deals seem to often turn into multi-day movers, which I posted about previously -
I have no bias at this point, would need to see how the chart continues to develop.
$FFIE we've seen a similar agenda with many other cheapies like $TTOO, $ICU, $NVOS, $CEI
Not always in this exact order, but goes something like this:
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@RickyAnalog_STN
was thinking something similar on $VISL. Yes, both practices totally against the rules, but that doesn't stop these guys. Even violating rule 105 is like a measly $100k or so penalty, IF they get caught lol
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Here's how i traded it (1st one too early, had staying power likely bc of $LUCY. Cov some at close and swinging some)
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@Afghanrebel
@RickyAnalog_STN
Great advice from 2 amazing traders. For me (and I think 99% of traders) it really does always come down to size. once you have a system that works, the more size you use (relative to capital) the more it inhibits your ability to execute that system - check
@BrianLeeTrades
tweets
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Before instagram I used to take Polaroids of my dinners and show them to my fiends at school the next day
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@Kitkatkass
Trade super small and experiment with different set ups (you’ll lose initially) but eventually you’ll find your niche/set up that jives with your personality. When you find that niche, study it day in a day out and perfect it - don’t alternate btwn different strategies
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They can do this, bc in the agreement it says:
"sales of shares after the purchase notice that are reasonably expected to be subscribed for aren't considered short sales"
P.s. thanks
@Do_Good_Capital
for the cheap borrow!
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Took this long a couple times starting in January when I saw the upcoming catalyst (Source:
@AskEdgarIO
(Insights screenshot from January)
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@GBearTrading
@BigKash030
you'll want to use the cashless exercise formula to find out how many shares they can dump
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@nofear_182
@goodetrades
When the market shifts away from setups that are conducive to our strategies, main lesson I learned is u just gotta sit on your hands and take the opportunity to sit, watch and learn for next time those market conditions arise
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$ONMD figured they put out the PR for a reason (to get liquidity) and it would push at the open again. Was just pretty short lived and i could've cut it sooner 😅
Vote tomorrow to approve the issuance of shares underlying the notes and warrants
The action on Day 1 is what made me look deeper. I figured they'd eventually want to short to hedge the convertible notes (they'd need volume for this). Also, with the incentive to keep the stock above certain levels, it was hard to believe they'd let it die off at $1.60 after
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- Issue a ton of convertible debt and/or warrants
- pump the stock
- gain shareholder approval to issue more than 19.99% of the O/S
- pump the stock with a PR
- unload the stock
- then reverse split
Usually ending up 90% down from the highs
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Thinking we see some of the weed names come back and grind higher in the coming weeks/months leading up to the rule going into effect
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pretty close with the calculation- $2.137B! $GME
Now here we are again in 2024 and so far Gamestop has raised $933.4 million from selling 45 million shares at $20.74/share.
With the new 75M share ATM, they can raise around $2B depending on what prices they sell at, so they'll have a nice stack of cash.
(Source:
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$AKLI they're expecting 510k approval soon, so thought it was a good idea to long.
Oh, and they make video games to treat ADHD.
In hindsight, maybe not a very good long 😅
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Photo 1, after I lose a pot. Photo 2, after I lose a trade
Good times tho 😅
Enjoying the day before the social happy hour tonight at 6:30. Hope to see you there. Hanging with
@TheStrongTrader
@jmt415
@WangerTrade
@C8OTCTrader
Looking forward to seeing everyone else.
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@b_m0rt
@Amp_Trades
At first I thought you were doing a couple lines of coke off your package lol
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@TheShortBear
Dang for a second there I thought I was killing it but I guess it’s just the market 😅
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What's more, if it can't hold over $1 for 6 more days, it likely fades hard with a potential reverse split looming (Source: (Insights screenshot from today)
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@TheShortBear
Do you base your stops on data? Not your initial stop, but where you’d stop after you’ve pyramided - I.e. where you’d stop on SMX after the adds?
P.s. you da man
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@JB__trades
@b_m0rt
@Amp_Trades
@ToddAultIII
Wonder if he’s still putting his money into porn and prostitutes 😂
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@BrianLeeTrades
@Acruz_2018
@Michael_Katz11
so although we all recognize anomalies like the "stuff" or the "soak", i like how she goes into detail in volume price analysis in terms of the macro level and "global" view - studying volume price action in the context of a full trend
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"THERE IS NOTHING NEW IN WALL STREET. THERE CAN’T BE BECAUSE SPECULATION IS AS OLD AS THE HILLS. WHATEVER HAPPENS IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY HAS HAPPENED BEFORE AND WILL HAPPEN AGAIN” - Jesse Livermore
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The action on Day 1 is what made me look deeper. I figured they'd eventually want to short to hedge the convertible notes (they'd need volume for this). Also, with the incentive to keep the stock above certain levels, it was hard to believe they'd let it die off at $1.60 after
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$CTRM clearly someone selling into the rips yesterday as well as the prior run, likely CEO and his sister (another major shareholder). This thing traded like 1/3 of the float in a couple 1 min candles and went absolutely no where lol - pretty telling, and made for a nice short
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poker and trading taught me an important lesson applicable in life: while you are subject to external factors completely out of your control, i.e. bad luck, ultimately, your success or failure is entirely on you. Losers blame the world. Winners hold themselves accountable
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