JohannesBorgen
@jeuasommenulle
Followers
49,371
Following
1,596
Media
3,537
Statuses
66,735
Le poids d'un oiseau qui s'y pose suffit à déplacer la terre. The weight of a bird landing on it is enough to move the Earth
Joined March 2013
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Birmingham
• 506930 Tweets
#LaCasaDeLosFamososMx
• 302923 Tweets
#LCDLFMX2
• 234351 Tweets
Protecting
• 201635 Tweets
Gala
• 169158 Tweets
TATI
• 149777 Tweets
原爆投下
• 113564 Tweets
Adrián Marcelo
• 104500 Tweets
Ricardo
• 98263 Tweets
Mariana
• 88402 Tweets
ファミチキ
• 50892 Tweets
Sian
• 46920 Tweets
Stanowski
• 43818 Tweets
Goyang
• 43496 Tweets
Vargas
• 41492 Tweets
Briggitte
• 31547 Tweets
#BangladeshCrisis
• 25520 Tweets
はだしのゲン
• 20451 Tweets
सुषमा स्वराज
• 17738 Tweets
#FileninSultanları
• 14550 Tweets
Zehra
• 12601 Tweets
消しゴムマジック
• 11155 Tweets
Hande
• 10246 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Long overdue, the thread I promised about ESG investing – mostly personal experience and thoughts.
Remember I mostly invest in fins – but not only.
40
169
809
The narrative sounds simple: sanctions will crash the Ruble, isolate Russian economy, create massive inflation and hopefully Russia will cave.
But the chart for EUR vs RUB stubbornly disagrees… What’s happening here? Are sanctions not working? Why?
Important thread (I think)
174
2K
7K
Looking at French Covid hospital data I found something very intriguing. Since the beginning of the pandemic, I pay attention to a metric I call ICU exit rate: the % of ICU patients out of ICU within 7 days. This has been quite stable over the waves... until now!
195
1K
4K
@Mij_Europe
This is the tweet of the day
🛑 DIRECT : Éric Ciotti toujours en fuite après avoir volé les deux principales reliques des Républicains (le pain au chocolat de Jean-Francois Copé et les costumes de François Fillon).
369
7K
42K
5
66
3K
Last Friday, Macron floated the idea of a new general lockdown in France. Ouch. And because I’m fed up with reading so much garbage and contradictory stuff on Covid, I decided to have a hard look at the French data. A (long but important) thread.
81
713
2K
Time to go back to the incredible Allianz story that broke yesterday: how did a boring German insurer end up paying 5.8bn$ in fines & client compensation?
A thread + what I think are important lessons at the end – but before you ask, why they did it, here’s the answer.
52
385
2K
By now you've probably read 10 times that Macron called parliamentary elections to put RN/Le Pen in power & wait for them to mess up so much that Macron's heir will win in 2027.
I think that's a possible scenario but not his goal at all. It misses Macron's real target.
Thread.
36
252
1K
CS confirms shareholders will get 3bn and AT1 holders 0. This won't go down very well as it's an obvious breach of the hierarchy of claims
124
265
1K
You'll see zillions of hot takes about bankruptcy of SVB $SVIB but bottom line is: they were just greedy and reckless.
All they had to do was buy t-bills or deposit at the Fed & earn the carry over their 0% paying deposits
But no, they wanted more & didn't care about IR risk
56
221
1K
Non seulement le calcul d'Antoine est juste, mais la réalité est bien pire que ce qu'il dit et très loin des calculs fantaisistes ci-dessous.
Voici ce que cela donne réllement. (Spoiler, c'est une catastrophe.)
Un thread
Cher antoine, ce twitt fait insulte à ton intelligence.
Bernard, ultra-riche, a un rendement moyen annuel de 8-10% par an = 50M dans ton ex.
🔜même dans ton calcul caricatural, Bernard n'a pas perdu de sousous, il a juste fait une + value de 25 millions en 1 an. Oinoin.
123
161
1K
17
201
1K
This is wild. I've never seen anything like that in my life.
The bond was due today. Traded at 0.5% yield for a year.
Crashed to 50% par.
Repaid at par today.
* GAZPRU 6.51 03/07/22$ ↑ 50.000
*GAZPROM CREDITORS SAY THEY RECEIVED PAYMENT FOR BONDS DUE TODAY
42
190
1K
I haven’t tweeted much about Credit Suisse mayhem over the weekend – mostly because I found the tweet that triggered the whole thing a bit silly.
Btw the tweet has been deleted and if I were the journalist, I wouldn’t feel very at ease.
But the price action warrants a thread!
26
150
1K
What’s going on with European banks and what are the risks from the Ukrainian conflict?
I know it might sound slightly irrelevant, considering all is going on, but the past few days have shown that financial plumbing can have huge ramifications…
So, a thread.
22
268
909
I've never seen anything like the German loan guarantee program: instant loans for SMEs, 100% guaranteed, up to 3m of revenues (max 800k), only condition is profitable last year or on average last 3y years. 10y with 2y holiday. No € limit. I guess fiscal flex is really an asset!
20
352
829
But more importantly, finding a way to close this loophole would be a massive blow to Russia’s economy – because so far, sanctions are only partially working.
19
142
794
Something fascinating will happen in Q3 on the French mortgage market.
How will French banks be able to make money at all on new loans?
Follow me for a quick thread, because I think it's big.
@kittysquiddy
34
149
807
One the most hilarious fact in this SVB/Signature debacle is that in Q4 2022 the geniuses at Signature decided to hedge the rates risk of their book... in the wrong direction !!!
I can't stop laughing
GENIUSES
@INArteCarloDoss
54
118
787
STOP EVERYTHING YOU'RE DOING. IT IS HERE.
THE FIRST ZERO COUPON PERPETUAL BOND EVER.
28
221
756
And of course,
2. Trade hasn’t really stopped with Russia. We still sell them stuff (or China does) and they still sell us commodities and energy.
We’ve embargoed Vuitton handbags and other stuff, but I’m not sure it’s really meaningful.
6
72
734
If you look at the currency balance of Russia, the picture is pretty clear: even if the stock is frozen, the flow is still pretty much positive for Russia, so they still have all the hard currency they need to buy stuff they want
7
147
736
Holy cow ! The S&P downgrade/upgrade ratio on levered loans hit 43.2 !
That's not a %, btw. That's 43.2 downgrades for 1 upgrade 😱.
The peak in the GFC was 8.4.
48
232
737
But first, I wanted to check if screen prices are genuine – so I called a dealer and tried to sell a bit of RUB. At first, it felt like I was trying to sell him child porn! But eventually, after a bit of a weird convo, they were ready to trade, not too far from the screen price.
4
27
693
Today's the sale of 5bn£ tap of 2053 Gilt. It was planned for mid Sept but postponed after the queen's death (weird if you ask me)
Since then, you might have noticed slight market movements on GBP/Gilts
By my calculation, this postponement will cost:
2 480 000 000 £
27
219
703
Deutsche Bank has a new astonishing forecast for the next ECB & Fed meetings.
"Absolutely no idea at the moment what the Fed and ECB are going to do at their meetings over the next week and even beyond"
At least that's honest.
18
106
696
An absolute MUST READ on Bloom today about the private credit market. In a nutshell
- ppl invest because there's no trade so pricess don't move (artifically low vol)
- marks in funds are all over the place
- private funds mark higher than regular mutual funds who own the same
47
119
694
I couldn't believe it but apparently it's true, he really said it.
Being ridiculed by the Greek banking system is really another level.
ECB'S STOURNARAS SAYS GREEK BANKS ARE SOLID, EXPOSURE TO CREDIT SUISSE ALMOST ZERO
'Greece is not Switzerland' - oh, how the tables turn.
23
173
846
22
105
671
I think i know what happened in the very last minutes of that France England game yesterday, and that dramatic penalty miss.
Hear me out, because it’s been a fascinating psychology battle!
A thread.
34
99
661
The market: OMG Goldman are so smart, they managed to dodge the loss on Archegos when everyone else got burned.
The truth at trial: Archegos trader accidentally transfered 470m *to* Goldman instead of withdrawing that amount *from* Goldman.
That's a 940m difference
29
48
656
I don't even know where to start.
The German finance minister confirmed that BaFin staff actively traded Wirecard stock in the months before the bankruptcy.
Seriously?
35
260
639
Barclays just introduced a US Immigration tracker which they say provide better insights than the many official sources. Bottom line is huge increase in "Humanitarian" migration + unlawful.
But the economic impact is also very interesting.
1/n
17
139
656
I did an explainer of the ECB Policy review:
If inflation goes down, ECB buys bonds.
If inflation goes up, ECB buys bonds.
We need to fight climate change, ECB buys bonds.
You're welcome, this one was free of charge.
14
116
646
We finally have the total cost of the Archegos disaster for Credit Suisse: 4.4bn CHF.
There is one question I get A LOT: how is it possible that Credit Suisse took a multi-billion exposure on a “family office”?
I will try to explain - A thread.
Credit Suisse risk chief to leave after Archegos and Greensill losses
12
30
92
31
138
621
Little bombshell in the EP's proposed amendments on Basel 4 for banks: several proposals to severely penalise fossil fuels.
1) Exposures to existing fossil fuel at 150% risk weight
2) Exposures to new fossil fuel at 1250% risk weight!
46
133
601
Probably foolish of me to make forecasts about the future, but what do I think will happen with SVB next week? $SVIB
#SVB
(I know this will horribly backfire but never mind)
31
122
598
So, it does look like RUB recovered a big chunk of the drop. How is it possible if all of Russia’s FX reserves are frozen? Let’s dig.
3
32
569
France has approx the world record for public spending. Yet 70% of voters want more public spending.
So what far left & far right are arguing about is who's antisemitic & who's nazi or who did what in 1945. The centre is busy figuring out where to defect.
Utterly depressing.
29
110
587
To be honest I didn't expect the CFA franc conspiracy theory to pop up in mainstream European politics
Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni.
Straight. Fire.
3K
23K
70K
40
38
580
Thoughts about what's next in France + some important budget geekery in the middle. A long thread.
There is obviously no party capable of governing, But the two most important figures for me are approx
- RN + LFI = 214, 256 if we add EELV and PCF
- LR + PS + ENS = 131+162=293
27
123
585
About the CS AT1 wipeout and for the "read the docs, duh" crowd, may I point out that the docs were not the legal basis for wiping out AT1 but a new law that was passed yesterday?
And if you read the law you'll see that it has far reaching consequences for Switzerland
60
96
582
So my final take is the following: the way the sanctions system is designed, the CBR can pretty much “outsource” its FX management to private sector entities.
And there are, ultimately, US banks involved. The risk that this could backfire in the future is definitely non zero.
5
108
564
Answering to questions I often get (
@kittysquiddy
) here’s a thread about what the BIG rates shock means for banks.
I won’t get into the details of why banks are exposed to rates but in a nutshell they’re not simply “a bond in the asset side, a bond in the liability side”
22
111
579
So it leaves us with only 1 option (which btw is the logical one): the exporters sell to the CBR and the CBR injects it in the system – via a non-sanctioned bank – when required by an importer. This way there is no selling pressure on the RUB - no need for the frozen stock.
10
73
546
that are reasonably designed to detect and report instances of money laundering through those accounts.” and OCC has issued rather strict guidelines on this. Basically if the whole thing was suspicious and you pretend you didn't notice, you're in trouble.
9
92
356
@dsquareddigest
@Alea_
@PaulJDavies
@RobinBrooksIIF
And the one person who could actually do something about it :
@Brad_Setser
20
40
538
True, not all reserves are frozen, but it does not seem like Russia is selling its gold and almost all transactions (including FX) with the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) have been prohibited.
So, again, why isn’t the RUB crashing?
7
25
524
That's got to be 1 of the most hilarious non performing loan ever.
Hamburg Commercial Bank booked a NPL on... its own headquarters!
They lent the money (142m !) to Signa to buy the property & Signa rent back to them.
When your "deconsolidation trade" goes south
30
91
550
Two things worth pointing out:
1. Sorry for the oversimplification, but you care about FX only because of international trade. If we discovered the people on Mars have a currency, I don’t think we’d care about the parity with the USD, with all that trade going on with them.
5
25
519
But the story doesn’t stop here, far from it.
Because, as
@PaulJDavies
pointed out this weekend, a mystery remains: haven’t we blocked Russia’s FX USD reserves precisely so that they can’t continue to use them.
Well, this is where it gets very tricky and interesting.
1
41
523
I've done my fair share of dunking on CS in the past, so let me point out two big items that make the contagion from SVB a bitabsurd:
- CS has a very large amount of liquidity (still 62bn at the central banks) and was able to manage a Q4 100bn+ deposit outflow with no MtM loss
16
108
532
To manage the FX crisis, Poutine passed a rather smart decree saying that all exporters in Russia have to sell withing three days their hard FX in exchange for Rubles:
10
50
506
There is a lot of debate going on about what negative interest rates mean for banks and how it’s bad, but (life) insurers are often forgotten. So here’s a thread about this because I think it's HUGE.
20
179
521
Is another (what ?! not again!) Italian bank going to be bust?
The price action of BFF certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence.
What happened? Simple: the Bank of Italy did an inspection and suspended dividends (but not AT1 coupons.)
But why? Now, that’s a funny story.
19
95
518
Several explanations:
- vaccines (but people are still in ICU though)
- treatment has drastically improved (under-reported if this is the case)
- severities of the variants are different?
I'd love to have a "clinical" view on this because it's very important imo
47
30
504
Eurocrisis veterans will remember that back in the days, Italy & Spain were basically in the same boat. Now that we're discussing fragmentation risk again, it's worth pointing out how the two countries have diverged. I'll just use two charts:
11
128
505
Tbf there’s probably not much to add to this, but the people have spoken, so a thread on Deutsche Bank and the market action today that's been pretty wild
Just wanted to share the 11-yo view on all this;
Credit Suisse: "All normal, when there's "Credit" in the name, there's always a problem"
Deutsche Bank "But Germans are people with a lot of money"
Not investment advice.
11
4
134
21
114
510
@Alea_
This means that CBR USD accounts that are not at a US entity are not explicitly prohibited by OFAC restrictions. Imagine the following: CBR has a USD acct at Gazprombank, Gazprombank has a USD acct at a Chinese bank and Chinese bank has a USD acct at a US depositary institution.
5
69
483
This is really a fascinating chart - and definitely not what I expected : average age of human procreation over the last 250 000 (!) years.
7
86
488
Essential piece of research from Barclays today, on the economic impact of stopping the flow of Russian gas.
Do read it, but if you can't, here's a summary 🧵
21
137
488
I can't believe my 18 year old son living in the US will be vaccinated before my 84 year old mum living in France 😭
14
55
481
Being a correspondent means that you only transfer money from one bank to another, you don't really know who the ultimate clients are As nicely summarised in this chart by Mediobanca
9
50
467
If you're an investor & not French, this is all you need to know about the debate between Macron & LePen
- macron was arrogant but French ppl always are
- le pen was shit but she always is
- macron will win, nothing will happen
Move on, nothing to see here
29
49
476
Big move: SNB annonces liquidity backstop for Credit Suisse
41
153
461
I must confess this chart & numbers surprised me because it seemed wrong but also it was tweeted by reliable accounts afaik. So what’s going on? Are corporate treasurers in panic mode because of hikes? I did a deep dive & the outcome is fascinating but NOT what you would expect!
Here we go...
Percentage of new bonds that mature in one year.
128
361
2K
29
74
463
I'm sorry to inform you that France is now officially an Emerging Market.
24
48
462
Unbelievable !!!
Macron calls for general elections !
This is an earthquake in French politics.
23
57
461
I mean, BNP, a French bank, paid a 9bn$ fine precisely because of this!
The reason is that every single USD out there is ultimately settled in the US (at the NY Fed iirc) by American institutions which are the direct counterparties of the Fed payment system.
3
40
437
Unsurprisingly after this Bund move, the question I get the most if this: what do rising rates mean for banks? Well, it’s both very important & not that simple, so here’s a short explainer.
16
82
446
This network is hiding the CBR transactions. It doesn’t mean that they’re totally legal and that there is no risk. US sanctions for correspondent banks are a very tricky topic. See there
Ok, so the answer seems to be "plenty of people", so here we go. (To any lawyer reading this, please don't sue me if I forget one "allegedly" or two, although I'll try tom remain objective as much as possible.!)
6
35
164
3
47
438
Swift is to Russia what R* was to Covid 🙄 nobody has a clue what it really is, but it feels good to talk about it like you're an expert
11
40
428
Unbelievable
BREAKING: Credit Suisse told employees that bonuses will still be paid later this week
103
311
2K
31
77
438
There's customer service, and then there's customer service at Revolut:
"the head of Revolut’s UK operations accidentally texted a disgruntled customer to say he would be waiting for him ‘in the garden with my shotgun’”.
29
68
432
But wait: does this mean that the CBR is still playing with USDs? Isn’t it supposed to be sanctioned? Sure, it's weird to imagine that the US can sanction anyone in the world just because they are handling USD, but one should remember that it is precisely what the US love doing!
2
40
412
I could go on forever about Credit Suisse's legendary behaviour over the years, but this snippet is top ShitBanksDo Index stuff
“[in] the past dozen years, Credit Suisse put 35 billion CHF into its annual bonus pools.
The total profits generated in that period: 35 million CHF"
26
78
422
So even the USD held by the CBR is ultimately somehow a claim on the Fed – with many intermediaries. And this is where is the loophole that allows the CBR to continue the USD. As
@Alea_
pointed out, OFAC sanctions only prohibit *transactions* with the CBR (not freeze)
2
46
412
My 2nd guess was a non-sanctioned bank (e.g. Gazprombank) which would then sell it to an importer. But this is tricky because the importer and the exporter will not use same amounts at same time (the decree only leaves 3 days to sell)
No way a bank can take that massive FX risk.
2
23
396
I think Bloomberg just killed all ESG data providers with its new ESG function release this morning.
Truly impressive stuff.
The master of data strikes again?
24
28
410
This isn't politics, just markets, but I suspect there's a big misunderstanding in nonmarket professionals about what markets are worried about in French elections.
Here's a summary from BNP that I fully agree with (short term ofc)
24
119
418
Your daily reminder that no one who finds an actual magic money machine that works publishes it instead of trading it
Designing a Profitable Intraday Strategy Using Python and Alpaca
We've just released a new article that provides the Python code used to backtest a profitable intraday model on SPY. From 2018, the model yielded a return of over 30% per year with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.95.
The
4
50
372
20
22
412
@Alea_
Sure, Gazprombk is aware that it has USD from CBR. But Chin bank only knows about the net value of Gazprombk USD – could be plenty of non-sanctioned entities. Worse, US depositary bank – correspondent bank for Chinese bank - would only have net value of all USD of Chinese bank
4
39
393
tagging the persons involved in the discussion this weekend and who greatly help me understand
@dsquareddigest
@Alea_
@PaulJDavies
@RobinBrooksIIF
7
22
390
I'm sorry, WHAT ?
Credit Suisse helped a Nazi's hide his company's assets and then took his company from him to pay bonuses to bank execs ?
Are you kidding me?
@CreditSuisse
can we get an update on this?
@sjhmorris
35
70
401
In theory this would support the RUB and allow the importers to buy FX at a reasonable with their RUB.
Initially, I thought this was happening in the market, but this doesn’t work because the volumes are too big.
So, who are the exporters selling their FX to?
1
26
381
The more I read about SBF and FTX, the more I get the impression that this has nothing to do with crypto, securities fraud, banking regs, Ponzi, etc and the more it looks like Jho Low/1MDB type of fraud: raise tons of cash & just enjoy life spending other people's money
24
42
404
I have a proposal: when both rates get to 1 at the same time, let's stop FX trading forever and make our lives simpler.
10
40
396
By popular demand, a
#DB
thread (yeah, we all know I’m doing this just to get new followers, but who could resist the ego boost!)
#DeutscheBank
24
138
389
As the Russia/ NATO/US/OSCE talks didn’t make real progress, it’s important to look again at this possibility. Can they cut Russia from SWIFT & would this be Armageddon for Russia?
BREAKING: Draft Russian sanctions bill coming out of the senate includes cutting Russia off of the SWIFT banking system if they invade Ukraine. The US used this against Iran and it set them back to the economic dark ages.
97
570
2K
23
153
385
The case is now closed. We officially in a simulation.
The former president of First Republic, the Olympic champions of interest rate risk management, could become the Head of the Turkish CB, also well known for its very smart interest rates policy.
18
57
384
So don’t get fooled here: imo Macron is going after LFI, not Le Pen, because he believes the real threat is not being in the 2nd round in 2027.
On TV y'day, every RN MP was happy about the new elections, every LFI looked pissed!
14
47
377
This is the scary chart that should keep you awake at night.
Hey,
@ecb
, sending thoughts and prayers for that 2030 rates rise.
17
68
368
@LHSummers
Thank you for your contribution to my list of horribly bad takes on SVB. We will let you know if you win the tournament
7
12
363
Since I'm more & more intrigued & haven't read a convincing explanation yet, I've looked at a scatter plot comparing, over time, ICU exit rate vs hospital exit rate, with a different color for each "wave". This new wave, in green, is really odd.
27
72
362
Just off the phone with a EU GSIB CFO & if I may paraphrase:
"We've spend years losing money on our [X00bn] HQLA portfolio because we didn't want to take an inch of interest rate risk and now the market treats us like we YOLOd deposits on LT govies"
Fair to say he was pissed off
14
45
366
Keeping all the decimals made it look scientific, of course.
(IMPORTANT LESSON: Never trust anyone who gives you 14 decimals)
7
28
359
With all the discussion going on in the UK about helping mortgage borrowers because of higher rates, I think it's worth reposting Bank of England data on household debt.
Are we sure we want to "help" people on the right of the chart ?
23
68
353
40k, wow ! I certainly didn't expect that when i started this account.
Thank you all !
All I need to get to 100k is a GSIB to go bust.
40
4
351
Lucky us, Deutsche Bank had an investor update planned for today and here's the slide ya all wanted to see
Structure of their deposit book
(there's also a slide on CRE but nothing new on that front)
14
72
349
Bloomberg:
"Italy’s Enel SpA is in talks with banks on a new €16 billion ($15.8 billion) state-backed credit line to cover derivatives risks linked to spiking energy prices, according to people familiar with the matter."
Wow.
29
97
347