Paul Davies
@PaulJDavies
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Global Banking at Bloomberg Opinion. Ex-WSJ and FT. Why, why, why, why, why? Opinions mine, "likes" are often bookmarks, RTs don't mean I agree.
Slightly off centre
Joined January 2012
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There's a whole host of great pieces in here - all handily placed on one page and all FREE to read! Fill yer boots!
🇬🇧 What does the UK look like after 14 years under the Tories?
Our columnists assessed what the Conservatives have delivered for the economy, society and Britain’s standing in the world.
READ THE SERIES:
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Favourite data set I’ve discovered in a while: Tracks capital calls and distributions from and to investors in private equity funds, which I turned into a quarterly cash flow. It’s … not been good recently! >>
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I'm disappointed in the apparent lack of Russian interest in UK election. Sure sign of the declining relevance of this once great nation etc
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“Any system which is set up to maximise a single objective has the potential to go bonkers.” This is the big theme of
@dsquareddigest
's book The Unaccountability Machine. It’s an excellent read. I highly recommend it.
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So, tomorrow'll be my last day at WSJ after seven years.
I'm going to back to writing mainly about banks and will be turning up
@bopinion
in a few weeks time.
Was going to do this in the morning but
@_SidVerma
so...
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Here’s what I think is happening in the US financial system: There’s loads of money, it’s just that depositors aren’t leaving it all where it's needed. So Big Banks and the Fed are simply feeding it back in a money-go-round >>
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Been waiting ages for this to drop >> How brokers' hedging is holding down market volatility - until it doesn't. And how some are trading off these patterns.
#gammatrap
via
@WSJ
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This whole
@ben_mckenzie
senate testimony is a great read. And I'm not just saying that because he makes a similar case to me that only maybe a few hundred bill of real money ever was behind supposedly trillions of crypto "value" >
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Most, maybe all, have been trading sub-40% of book for *years*
Credit Suisse is not the only major bank whose price-to-book is flashing warning signals. The list below is of all G-SIBs with PtBs of under 40%. A failure of one of them is likely to call the survival of the others into question.
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<clink clink, ahem>
Personal news: It's goodbye
@WSJheard
and hello
@WSJmarkets
I'm done opinionising. Heading to the coal-face of markets reporting.
Will still be deeply into banks & their balance sheets, credit, private assets, but also other fin'l instruments & players.
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Online storm chasers have it wrong,
#CreditSuisse
isn't "on the brink". Also, you're looking at the wrong CDS. The bank is in a real tight spot, but it's disappointment rather than disaster that's round the corner >>
via
@opinion
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Quote of the year here from Jim Banks, this is the shit that matters
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there is something quite special about a former fixed-income derivatives banker talking abbout "Labour's Great Recession"
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Just for fun and as a totally simplistic exercise, here's a percentage breakdown of funding sources by stability/tenure for Credit Suisse in 2007 and 2022 (at H1) and Lehman Brothers in 2007.
(*Short includes short-term assets, trading liabilities, repo and securities lending)
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The whole
#LizTruss
schtick has irritated me to the point where I have to have a little rant. She fully blames Andrew Bailey, QT and the LDI crisis for her and
#KwasiKwarteng
’s incompetence. First: It was QT alone that blew up bond yields. Nonsense.
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deeply impressive RT
@SciencePorn
: Student rickrolls physics essay.
http://t.co/FhI5SODGKS
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Wirecard’s longtime No. 2 stopped responding to messages from colleagues when the company ran into trouble. The company still doesn’t know where he is. via
@WSJ
w
@bradleyhope
@kowsmann
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"A carnival barker first and a public servant never,
#Trump
used Mar-a-Lago as a backdrop for an incendiary call-to-arms on Tuesday evening."
@TimOBrien
eviscerates America's curdled Florida man via
@opinion
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There’s a bunch of other painful numbers for the PE industry in this column about the whole perpetual motion machine, how it’s jammed up and why it’ll be hard to restart >>
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Sell-side research is getting squeezed on all sides and has ended up working for investment banking more than ever says
@ghose77
Why equity research fails over and over (and isn’t coming back)
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London, NY and other financial hubs thrived for hundreds of years on direct information flows between people IRL. Now, Covid has shown just how far finance has evolved away from any need for physical interaction. Great city hubs look obsolete
@bopinion
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Just.... This is becoming a reeeeeaaally awkward black comedy. Randy Quarles comes to lunch at
#DeutscheBank
with CEO Sewing and regulatory chief Matherat *as it's being raided*. Also transacts in question date up to this year....
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"Six years after Brexit, a country onto its fourth Prime Minister and fifth Chancellor, run by a leader chosen only by 172,000 people, has seen its credibility suddenly snap. The cumulative erosion of trust in the institutions of government just got priced in."
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I refused to let the boy go on the climate march unless he could write me a list of at least 5 detailed demands and read at least the intros to a couple of books. Is this harsh?
IMO anyone who goes on a march just for the lols can get in the sea.
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The most succinct critique of BBC Brexit coverage you’ll see today From this article about John Sweeney by an old friend. >>
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#Putin
has given the U.S. and its allies the perfect chance to end the lax practices and loopholes that facilitate corruption and allow dirty money to swill around Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. feat
@SonyKapoor
and
@OliverBullough
via
@bopinion
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Me trying to describe what
@dsquareddigest
’s Unaccountability Machine is about and why Stafford Beer’s Cybernetics is so useful as a way to think about lots of frustrations today. Via
@opinion
The Forgotten Management Guru Who Knows Why Nothing Works
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@Sime0nStylites
Grana Padano cheese. I’ve no garden that bury it in so the park over the road will have to do. Don’t think the drunks and crack addicts will go for it so should be fine! 👍🏼
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*staggering*
There's something quite endearing about how perfectly unimpressive and forgettable this is
Did you know that If all the pipes and ducts that make up the Lloyd’s building were laid out, they would stretch all the way from the City of London to Milton Keynes. A staggering journey of 54 miles!
#LloydsBuilding
#fridayfeeling
#funfactfriday
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So supposedly lots of people knew he had a reputation, but it takes hard, committed reporting to make gossip into a proper story that stands up. And then there are consequences >>
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Be greedy when others are fearful: Is BBVA taking Buffett's principle too far with its offer for the rest of Garanti in Turkey? via
@bopinion
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What am I missing about PacWest?
75% of deposits fully insured;
available liquidity nearly double uninsured deposits;
deposits have been growing slightly since a low in mid-March;
tangible equity of c.$2.7 billion already INCLUDES unrealized securities losses of $736m...
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Senator John Kennedy summing up his analysis of SVB CEO's management: "This was bone deep, down to the marrow stupid. You put all your eggs in one basket and unless you lived on the international space station you could see that interest rates were rising..."
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Reading FINMA's detailed report about the management, supervision and collapse of
#CreditSuisse
. Here's my summary so far >>
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This banking crisis shows that the effects of interest rate rises aren't straightforward. They come whipping through the system like an elastic band. At a certain point, financial stability *is* monetary policy.
via
@opinion
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This from John Authers is mad. So the end game here is that Redditors end up owning a load of shitty companies at very high valuations? What will they do with them then? HODL like bitcoiners?
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This line in the Bailey speech is a gem (in a geeky sort of way). I didn't know this was coming to EU bank capital rules. To put it in reasonably straightforward terms, it seems *very silly* >
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I feel like I should have written more about listed European asset managers this year >>
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Had a long talk with
@HelenHet20
about how the history of 20th century
#energy
politics and 21st century
#finance
fed into the destabilization of
#Ukraine
>> via
@bopinion
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Sports events getting cancelled whole sale is going to cost someone a lot of money. Why? Because this level of correlation is very unlikely to be in any insurer’s models.
I’ve been remembering a story told me many years ago by Stephen Catlin, Lloyd’s of London eminence >
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Russia's central bank can still get its hands on dollars and other hard currency - AND can still find ways to use it, which is a worry. Here's how >> via
@bopinion
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I shouldn't take the p, but...
John Cryan will not reign for a thousand years!!! >>
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The cost to borrow
#dollars
against other currencies markets has sharply reversed in recent days - part of the reason for the swings is high dollar fund costs inside the U.S. w/
@ceostroff
>> via
@WSJ
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Good stuff on Banks' $1.6bn Steinhoff margin loan exposure here from
@FD
and
@ArashMassoudi
>>
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I keep thinking language can't get worse. And then it does!
*fantastic funnel*
*doing affluent*
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Reading again about the endless growth of debt as the only source of economic fuel…
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This is very unfair. I’d be livid if I’d been asked to appear in an explanatory role and then found myself “debating” Farage
I need this to be more widely known. The BBC is wrong to treat people they've brought in as subject matter experts as protagonists in a highly-charged debate.
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I'm not tweeting at the moment really, but I will break my resolution for this. Chapeau
@FD
A missing E1.9bn at Wirecard and the end of the UK's contact tracing app - tomorrow's front page
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In a frankly gluttonous serving of
@BryceElder
zingers, the conclusion of this paragraph is undoubtedly my favourite.
Top tables: the best places for power dining in Mayfair, London via
@financialtimes
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Small US banks that will remain lightly regulated have been taking an ever greater share of lending risks, especially in real estate >>
via
@opinion
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Daughter has developed a strong interest in fight club and hand painted this rather natty t-shirt. Or at least, when quizzed she insisted it is Fight Club she loves and not Zerohedge.
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Italy's death toll from the virus likely to overtake China's within 24 hours, according to bbc news.... This is insane. And so tragic.
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You know the really crazy thing about banks? If you forced them to sell all their assets immediately none of them would be solvent!
If you thought SVB was bad ... The Fed is sitting on unrealized losses of ~$1.2 trillion on their $8.3 trillion bond portfolio.
And the Fed is losing money every day by paying $$$ to commercial banks via reverse repos.
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Great blow-by-blow of the Credit Suisse rescue deal. Interesting detail on the AT1, I’d thought they were wiped to help UBS, this suggests something more political>> How the Swiss ‘trinity’ forced UBS to save Credit Suisse
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sometimes the news gods just deliver irresistible juxtapositions >>
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Lowest risk countries globally for money laundering acc'ing to the Basel Institute on Governance AML index. Er...
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Icymi all of
@parmy
’s pieces on AI are really high quality >> There's No Such Thing as Artificial Intelligence
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Where are your friends when you need them?
#CreditSuisse
stock and CDS have been absolutely hammered today, but it is no
#SVB
! It has a ton of cash and liquid bonds to start and less rate risk than many others >> via
@opinion
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Maybe I have no soul, i don’t know, but I quite like the office. Lots of people don’t and employer power is going to drag them back. But don’t worry, we’ll all keep some flexibility >> I Can’t Be the Only One Who Doesn’t Want to WFH?
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A great tradition in journalism: it's the Jo Johnson leaving page. (tbh there's normally more jokes than this)
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In his run-of-the-mill tweet Paul Davies highlights a tortured soul writing about himself
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#Silvergate
and
#SVB
bank collapses make California look like it might be having a bit of 1980s
#Texas
moment. In truth it ain't that bad, but there are definitely dangers ahead and not just in CA. via
@opinion
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You think Italy's banking system is bad? Take a look at Germany! The
#DeutscheBank
analyst who had his research pulled was right, serious reform is required. A new political regime offers a chance to finally bring change >> via
@bopinion
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Bringing the basics of modern money theory to the people>> What are bank reserves and why has a spike in an obscure interest rate made us suddenly care? via
@WSJ
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State Street? Really?? Maybe something more like a bid for parts of CS - similar to the deal for Brown Brothers Harriman's Investor Services business - $3.5 billion, already delayed awaiting regulatory approvals and currently blocking buybacks...
But a bid for all of CS?>
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@Birdyword
The aircon cutting out when the train stops under a blazing diagonal sun and waits 15 minutes for reasons unknown
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Daughter discovered “Friends” about 10 days ago. Barely seen her since. Just hear periodic squeals of laughter from behind her door. Then get breathless updates of who’s doing what over dinner. I’m utterly mystified all over again.
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Great quote from Jack Bogle: I don't believe in gov reg'n, but the reason we have so much gov reg'n [in finance] is because we hv earned it.
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*This* is modern journalism. Worth funding, definitely worth paying for >> Hackers, swindlers and thieves turn to new breed of cryptocurrency exchange to launder their dirty money via
@WSJ
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At least by handing the biggest tax cuts to the wealthiest with the least propensity to spend Kwarteng is making his budget less inflationary!
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If you're looking for the next
#LehmanBrothers
you're only half right. Really bad managers could still blow up a bank, but it is much much harder to do in a really fast and chaotic way.
#CreditSuisse
's balance sheet shows why via
@opinion
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If you want to monetise a big chunk of public debt you should just do it by the front door rather than the back >> The Hidden Cost of Saving UK Taxpayers Billions of Pounds
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Top quality hold music from Deutsche Bank this morning. Sounding like the twisted love child of Kraftwerk, Jean-Michelle Jarre and Holger Czukay
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