Jason Britt
@jasonlbritt
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President of Central States Commodities, Inc. Full sevice brokerage for futures and options trading.Has appeared on Bloomberg TV, Barron's and WSJ on Ag markets
Kansas City, Missouri
Joined April 2009
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THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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USDA estimated China's corn supply 3 years ago at 186 days. Now down to 85 days. World supply is estimated at 52 days and 2 years ago it was above 80. If you excluded China and the US, the world only has 38 days of corn supply on had.
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There is always that one guy that has to out do everyone and bring his plane to
#partycove
Lake of the Ozarks. Having fun and n a Saturday.
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Asking for some prayers and positive vibes for my mom as she undergoes heart valve replacement surgery tomorrow. I Love her dearly and she is the rock of our family.I believe strongly in the power of prayer.Her name is Rosemary. I will be off her for a couple of days. Thank You
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This speech by Biden is just showing how scared they still are of Trump. It's kind of pathetic. I don't think Trump is the answer, but not sure anyone could have done any worse than Biden has done this past year.
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16 million acres of soybeans have yet to even set pods as of August 25th.
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These sports figures/teams boycotting and refusing to play makes me chuckle. Covid 19 has taught us that we can survive without watching sports.However, farmers deciding not to farm would be way more life changing. Sports teams/athletes way over estimating their importance
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Update on my Mom:They were able to repair the valve VS replacing it and no pace maker at this time.She has already called my Dad this morning (no visitors) and is sore, but feels good.Please keep the prayers coming and thank you to everyone that has reached out.Much appreciated!
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Asked for prayers and good vibes last week for my Mom and wanted to give a update. She was able to come home last night and is doing very well. Wanted to say Thank you to everyone for the prayers and words of encouragement. Please keep them coming as she recovers at home.
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Operating profits for ADM's oilseeds business more than tripled to $349 million in 3rd quarter. Hmmmm, what a great strategy. Tell farmers it sucks and its all China and we have their worse basis ever and buy the crap out soybeans and sell the sh-t out meal/oil look at exports
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Everyone knows China is full of Crap! Watch what they do, not what they say........
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Can't stress enough how important the US growing season is going to be.
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Twitter has gotten real quite from all the bear grain analyst telling you how dumb you were that you had not sold corn and soybeans and were going to 2.80 corn and 7.80 beans. Probably to busy collecting margin money to tweet. This is a humbling business for all of us.....
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Easy to look back after the fact at a bullish chart and say how much money you would/could have made. Problem is most people can't stomach days like today or were stopped out way before markets actually reach a top. Do I think we have topped...No! Is today uncomfortable? Yes!
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JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, imported 30 ship loads of corn into Brazil from Argentina due to the short crop caused by drought and frost.
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Sometimes I wake up just feeling sorry for the bears in this grain market....... And then I remember how smug they were telling everyone how you were dumb to even think we could rally and how dare we question the USDA and the size of the crop..... and then I don't feel bad.
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#Soybeans
are just shaking the trees on a move that has went straight up with little correction. I’m afraid the bears will be disappointed once again. Could we have a down week, sure! Do I still think we’re going higher longer term.......yep!
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Farmers please do not ask me why we are setting lows in the corn and your posting your yield monitors on twitter with 300bpa.
#thinkaboutit
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Well known restaurant here in KC is said to be paying 50 bucks a hour to the back of the house staff so they can stay open and operational. Even at that still having problems they said. This wage pressure is going to get out of control. No one wants to work.......
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I know some will disagree, but I think the
@cmegroup
not closing tomorrow is very disrespectful. Anyone that believes this should send them a DM or tweet telling them what you think. Some traditions should remain the same and I believe this is one of them.
#RespectnotGreed
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Wouldn't sell corn at this level for any amount of money.........whole growing season to go, challenging weather and funds record short. Sell away boys.......
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Soybeans have had almost a 60 cent uninterrupted drop, and people are asking why they are up a dime? First time trading? ......
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So we got planted at a record pace,which I was told is bearish at the time. But the same crop that was planted early, can now hold on indefinitely without rain. It’s the middle of June.Can’t just keep kicking the can down the road with these forecast rains that aren’t happening
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For all the talk of
#soybean
cancellations all winter long it better start happening soon to be able to "cancel" our way out of the soybean deficit we are creating. We have already shipped 82.7% of the soybeans. They gone!
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Dollar getting smacked this morning. The dollar rolling over in price would do more good longer term for commodities than a trade deal.
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This is just a personal opinion after 31 years of trading. I think commodities are on the verge of repricing much higher than current levels (20%plus) Many trading(me included) have never been through a real inflationary cycle and the payback for keeping rates artificially low
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Been doing this for over 26 years and still feel the same. MARKETS SHOULD BE CLOSED ON THIS DAY! It's disrespectful and with banks closed there is way to much risk in these markets each day to be open.
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Surprised how many analyst take glee in lower grain prices and collapsing cattle prices. Fine to be short, but just to rub it is really hard for me too understand.
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Hell Yeah your going to be seeing a lot of this! Exporters sell 756,000 Tons of CORN to China. Read that again. CORN. Exporters Sell 340,000 TONs of HRW to CHINA. Exporters sell 110,000 of soybeans to unknown.
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Fun Facts
#Corn
ending stocks have proven lower than the USDA's February estimate in 5 of the 7 prior years. And they are 5 for 5 on being to high on yield in the Feb. outlook by a avg of 6 bushel. Pretty sucky at this it appears.
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ONE reason I am so bullish :January 2013 soybean contract was trading at $14.96 on 12/14/2013 vs. the $11.68 level the January 2021 contract is trading at today. 4.2 Stocks/use ratio then . Current stocks to use ratio 3.9%
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No
#corn
cancellations and we need a whopping 5.1 million bushel a week to meet USDA estimates and we did 21.9 million bushel............... Oh and another 152,400 Metric Tons to a unknown announced at 8:00 cst. If we only had some demand.......
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Fun Fact: Not been a time in the last 10 yrs in which Dec. corn has not presented a opportunity to sell over 4.20+ during growing season.
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For those arguing about no demand.....YTD
#soybean
sales are running 14.5% ahead of last year despite USDA just cutting its own export estimate again this month to 11.9% below last year.
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Saturday morning thoughts. Most of the weather services missed this South American drought. I was made fun of by several of them saying this may be a once in trading career drought. (It’s in previous tweets). Sorry if you got short because of them. Many of them were dead wrong!
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For all you China's going to cancel chicken little's in
#soybeans
........ Approximately 97% of China's known soybean sales have shipped. Hard to cancel whats gone.
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Happy New Year to my twitter folks. I know we all don't agree on things be it Bull or Bear, but here's to wishing everyone a healthy and prosperous 2021.
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Be interesting what the Pro Farmer crop tour estimates yield at next week with the crops still fairly immature. Indigo Ag estimated corn at 154.7 while Dr. Cordinnier is putting the yield at 160 bpa. They better not be right or were at 2012 levels and below pipeline supplies.
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Sorry don’t think there is anything remotely funny about damage done to peoples property and crops..... sad that anyone thinks it’s funny to begin with. Have been on that side of it when Mom and Dad were hit with a tornado and where to even start is over whelming.
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As we are getting all excited about this rain lets look at a few things......If July rainfall is exactly average with 3.91", April-July would still be fourth driest since 1960.
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But everyone keeps telling me everything is fine……
Early harvest in the second largest group in Brazil, Bom Futuro, harvesting 5 bags per hectare due to severe drought in Mato Grosso.
#soybeans
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#Soybean
Bears have tunnel vision on exports. Domestic demand growth from our crush will offset much of the export problem. Essentially there will be no US soyoil available for export.We will need every acre of soybeans produced this year to fill the demand for sustainable diesel
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Tyson foods is running slaughterhouses at full capacity to fill surge in retail meat demand- CEO
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They harvest
#wheat
somewhere in the world in every month but February. Let that sink in when you start thinking were going to run out of wheat.......
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Inflation going nowhere...... anyone alive and living day to day knows this.
#Commodities
are where it's at and several of the commodities giving a hint of this. Fund sitting in record shorts are going to be caught way off guard.
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Weather guys telling me it’s going to cool down. Well no shit it’s 101 right now, high probability you are going to be right with that one. 🤦♂️
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Way to much hype over this. China will buy
#soybeans
if they need them and won't if they don't regardless of a trade deal or not. It was always going to be that way.
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Surprised at all the drama on Twitter from guys that trade all the time and especially some of the grain analyst and brokers on here. THESE MARKETS ARE GOING TO BE VOLATILE!Period!Don't get to excited when they move up and down 10-20 cents and describe it with silly adjectives.
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USDA has Iowa yield pegged at 188 bpa. State yield for Iowa in 2012 was 137 bpa. Of course genetics have improved,but get off the crackpipe!
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Yield is going down on this crop. We have seen the highest USDA numbers of the year imo. Nice bull flag developing in
#soybeans
. Sell them off,it's fine. End of the month and a new month coming and a 3 day weekend. What could go wrong....
#faceripper
coming.
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Not hearing much about Covid this morning so that's good.........
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Why does the USDA even bother..........Missing something by 40 to 50%...... Recall USDA at Feb 2020 Forum
forecasted 9/21 U.S. corn stocks at 2.637 billion bu. (1.1 billion over USDA’s Jan 2021 forecast) and a 20/21 on farm price of $3.60
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If we use farm futures planted
#soybean
acreage number of 88.5 and use USDA trend line yield we end up with a whopping 62 million bushel for carryout. Oh and the USDA will have to eventually come clean and lower current carryouts.
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CONAB VS the USDA on corn is over 450 mb difference..... USDA is the same agency that stuck with a Chinese corn import forecast one year of imports of 7.2mmt that eventually ended up near 30.0mmt Oh yeah they bought most of our corn that year under 4 bucks before it went to
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Back when I started in this business the last 2 days in the market would have definitely been straight to the bar after the close type of days. Still like my drinks, but this is better "therapy" for me and clears my mind. Bonus; I feel a hell of a lot better the next day too.
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Getting real sick and tired of "trending wetter forecast". I think I will just wait until it happens and take my chances ........
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#Soybean
shipments March-Aug.need to total 350 mb to
reach the USDA forecast. That number the last 5 yrs has averaged 670mb+, with a low of 590mb and a high of 800 mb. So a negative carryout of MINUS 120 or MINUS 450. Price has to ration demand......
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Seeing some things in the options that I have never seen before .....Holy Smokes be careful out there folks don't care if you are Bull/Bear. Career ending moves and financial ruin type moves.
#wheat
.
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Come on folks don't do this. US AG Dept. pulls all staff from pro farmer crop tour after employee receives threat- USDA
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Why do I get the feeling that Mr. Trump would be willing to at least start negotiates with the Chinese VS escalating tensions everyday if the Stock Market was getting the sh-t beat out of it like the corn/soy.
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Strong up seasonal for July
#corn
kicks in next week. Buy July corn 3/29 sell 5/01. Made money 13 out of 15 years. LY the buy was 7.08. Sell was at 8.13 1/2. Oh and carryout is tighter this year too. Not a trade recommendation, just pointing out a seasonal.
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#Soybean
basis Quincy, IL at 4 under the November. Had been 30 under. St Louis now at 20 over the November.
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Was told a long time ago by a old trader (mentor) that the last 10% of the move is always the most violent. That has kept my butt out of trouble several times when I just felt I needed to sell something because it's to high.
#soybeans
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Get very nervous on all these forecast of Hot and Dry and no rain in sight over holiday weekends. From experience went home very long corn and beans with forecast for no rain at all. That Sunday sitting on the boat it was pouring rain thinking "I'm F-cked". And I was.......
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Never seen a market so complacent for what is happening!
The crop here is “not being reduced.” It is dying, on 85 and 90 CSR soils (Iowa terminology for +225 bu dry land corn soils).
We are 100 degrees for several days. And 16” of rain short for the year. Profile was empty to start with.
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USDA putting Missouri corn yield at 160 is ridiculous. Gro predicting them at 138 bpa much closer. I have several customers in the area and have driven much of the state I would go 140 and considering that's the same as ly that may be a stretch. Just my thoughts on MO.
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Why do we even have crop ratings? Currently the crop ratings for MO corn is showing 40% of the crop gd/ex compared to the 5 yr avg of 60%. However, they put the Avg yield estimate for MO corn at 160 bpa when MO has only avg 160 when conditions were much better than thy are now.
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When your wife loves birds and especially flamingos you take her to flamingo island. Happy Wife, happy life.
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Complacency in this market with the immaturity of this crop is mind numbing. I know markets have cried wolf before on early frost and most of the time it doesn't happen, but this year to ignore it would be crazy. This could end very badly. Upside/downside risk disproportionate.
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Been driving to the Lake of the Ozarks for 20 plus years and the crops on the drive down are as variable as I have ever seen. Corn ready to tassel to just a foot high. And the
#soybeans
in some cases to just planted to a inch high. Honestly, soybeans look like crap!
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Harvest report on some 100 day corn North of KC. Field usually avgs. 170-175. This year it averaged 135. Said corn was very good and actually above average in a a lot of places. However, there were to many holes (drowned out) to make up the difference. 19% moisture.
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Hearing more and more clients tell me this is not the finish for
#soybeans
they had hoped for. Don't necessarily expect the USDA to recognize that tomorrow. But I do believe we have had our highest soybean yield print.
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Not said much lately, because a lot of times not much to say about markets.But I feel the
#soybeans
are currently "resting" before the next leg higher.Much like CL did in early Jan for a month,before moving another $10 higher.Still need higher prices to ration demand. That's all.
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Obviously not to the bottom yet, but two commodities I would not sell for any amount of money at this level would be corn and hogs. Not a trading recommendation to buy them. Just a observation after 25 years of trading commodities and trying to stay out of trouble.
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Not that most care on here but the wife an I with the new Mr Olympia Big Ramy.
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Fun fact: The shortfall in U.S.
#corn
production is the largest for an August crop report since 1997.
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