Jessica Ablamsky
@jablamsky
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Freelance marketing writer, journalist, and stock market junkie. I ❤️ disruptive companies.
San Francisco Bay Area
Joined June 2010
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What did you learn this year that made you a better investor?
I’ll go first:
1. The trend is your friend.
2. Making money > being right
3. Everyone’s wrong sometimes. Take a small loss and move on.
Takeaway: Strong fundamentals + momentum can be life changing.
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Since 1926, the average bull market lasted 8.9 years with an average return of 468%.
The average 🐻 lasted 1.4 years with an average loss of 41%.
I’ll take those odds.
No one knows when the next crash or bear market is coming. Tune out the noise and stick to your plan.
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Hey y’all. Exciting announcement.
I joined the amazing
@Beth_Kindig
,
@knox_ridley
, and
@Marlin_Capital
.
I’ll be helping write our free newsletter, and more. Sign up at .
Wish me luck!
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Who’s bullish on $ABNB? I’m seriously considering a position.
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2021 Year-end review.
S&P 500: 26.89%
Nasdaq: 21.39%
Dow: 18.73%
My Portfolio:
1-Year: 24.17%
2-Year: 157.61%
3-Year: 424.45%
Biggest Drawdown:
17.98% from July 9 to Aug 20
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Fintwit when growth stocks rise: “You have to pay for quality.”
Fintwit when growth stocks fall: “Valuation matters.”
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If the indexes keep dropping, what’s at the top of your buy list?
It’s $AAPL, $GOOG, and $MSFT for me. Not sexy, but very reliable.
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Calling it now. In 5-10 years, you won’t leave the house for routine sick visits.
We have the technology for remote patient monitoring. Long $TDOC.
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Seriously, y’all. This isn’t the day to panic sell your Chinese stocks.
If you really want out, at least wait 24 hours. Good investors don’t make emotional decisions.
$BABA $BEKE $BIDU $BILI $FUTU $JD $LI $NIO $PDD $TCEHY $TIGR $XPEV
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$AYX is in my “no worries” bucket, along with $BABA, $TDOC, and $VEEV. My conviction is 100%.
What’s in your “no worries” bucket?
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I don’t think the entire stock market is wrong about $FB.
But after building one of the most successful businesses in history, I do believe Zuck is worth backing.
If I’m wrong, it’s a small position and my portfolio will survive.
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What a year. I was lucky to catch a few multibaggers:
$DKNG (calls and shares)
$ETSY (calls)
$LVGO
$JD
$PINS
$SE
$SQ
$Z
What’s your biggest win this year?
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Some personal news. The team at I/O Fund is absolutely amazing, but I want to spend more time with family and miss the freedom of working for myself.
So I’m going back out on my own. It was a pleasure getting to know the I/O Fund team. Thanks for sharing your knowledge!
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Search isn’t a moat. It’s easy to set a new default browser.
But $GOOG has my saved passwords, bookmarks, and documents. I don’t want to start over.
Humans are lazy. That’s a moat.
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The stock market is great, but have you tried getting a new puppy?
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There’s a lot of fear right now, but no one knows what’s going to happen with the world or the stock market.
I’m just sticking to my plan and adding slowly to stocks I like long term.
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Total portfolio (Taxable + Retirement, Including Calls)
Top 5: 48.9% of portfolio
Top 10: 77.9% of portfolio
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In honor of $DIS earnings, here’s a map of everything it owns.
What a beast.
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It’s been a tough year for growth.
So I’m building a list of stocks near ATHs that went up on volume after earnings.
Possible MOMO Plays:
$AMD
$CVNA
$DDOG
$DKNG
$EXPI
$MGNI
$ROKU
$SEDG
$SHOP
$SNAP
$SQ
$TWLO
$ZI
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All I want next week is for $AMZN to surprise to the upside. What are you watching next week?
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I like to stay relatively concentrated because:
1. If a stock goes 10x I want it to be
life changing
2. Money is a limited resource
What’s your philosophy?
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I finally wrote down my trading rules. This is what works for me.
What are your most important trading rules?
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I don’t normally post sells, but I’ve talked about iBuying a lot.
If $Z can’t make iBuying work with the best data in the industry, it’s going in my too hard bucket.
I’m exiting $OPEN, $RDFN, and $Z.
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What’s your most undervalued growth tech stock? I’ll go first: $JD.
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I officially own $ETH and $BTC. I don’t know where the bottom is, but I think it’s worth nibbling.
Crypto isn’t going anywhere, IMO.
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Buying the dip has worked for 40+ years.
Except for a handful of years during extended drawdowns, it’s been the right move for two generations.
Buying the dip enabled your parents & grandparents to retire. So let’s stop treating dip buying like a Covid artifact by dumb retail.
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I’m not selling $TDOC. It’s a better company now than it was in March 2020.
There’s nothing wrong with MOMO, but it’s not my style. I can be patient.
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For the Ark bulls.
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Pullbacks reveal your true feelings about your portfolio.
Can’t sleep at night? You’re too far out on the risk spectrum.
Unusually worried about a stock? You don’t have as much conviction as you thought.
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Anyone spent time on $PINS lately? It just keeps getting better.
The ads take advertising to the next level. They’re not even annoying because they provide useful, relevant content.
I was getting nervous about $PINS, but they’re still making all the right moves.
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I’m a little disappointed by $NVDA guidance. Is it just me?
The stock split and dividend raise feels like a consolation prize.
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I don’t have any new themes for 2021. Still long digitization:
1. E-commerce
2. Healthtech
3. Advertising
4. Gambling
5. Retail
6. Payments
7. Biotech
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I rode $JD from $35 to $50, down to $19 then over $100.
Now it’s at $72.
It’s been steadily growing revenue the whole time. Stock price only follows fundamentals over the very long term.
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Cheap can always get cheaper, but I’m getting my “Broken Stocks Shopping List” together.
$ROKU and $DIS are at the top of my list. What do you like?
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Sorry, I can’t resist. One more sunset photo. No filter. It really is this beautiful.
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Looks like fintwit has decided $SQ gets punished for the $AFTPF acquisition, so rockets tomorrow?
🚀 🚀 🚀
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Anyone a buyer today? I grabbed $AEO, $CRM, $DPZ, $GO, $FLWS, $NVDA, and $VEEV.
I also added $UPST to my retirement portfolio and sold puts on $MU and $SQ.
$KWEB under $30 is interesting but I want to wait a little longer.
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Stocks on sale. Since 10/13:
$AMZN, down 12%
$VEEV, down 12%
$APPL, down 13%
$ADBE, down 13%
$TTD, down 13%
$TDOC, down 14%
$DOCU, down 16%
$SLP, down 16%
$SHOP, down 17%
$TWLO, down 18%
$ETSY, down 20%
$DDOG, down 22%
$EXPI, down 26%
$APPS, down 31%
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As $AMZN, $TGT, and $WMT continue to sell off, it feels like the consumer must be hurting.
That’s just not what major earnings reports show. Top line is healthy while the bottom line suffers due to rising costs.
Don’t create false narratives because they feel right.
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I finally started $ROKU. Is there a handshake or a welcome party?
I realize $ROKU could retest the lows, but I don’t want to get greedy with a great company.
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The largest public companies from 1999 to 2019.
$MSFT is the only Dot Com leader that significantly outperformed over the last 20 years.
What companies do you think will make the list 20 years from now?
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Updated Top 10:
$TDOC
$SE
$AMZN
$PINS
$JD (shares + options)
$DKNG
$ETSY
$VEEV
$SQ
$LULU
Top 7 are substantially larger than the rest of my portfolio.
I sold closed calls, so a bit of shuffling.
$SE is now my
#2
. I’m comfortable with it.
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No investor is right about everything. I nailed $PINS when it was out of favor. But I passed on:
- $APPS at $7 because maybe it won’t go back to $10. 🤦♀️
- $ETSY at $45 for $PINS.
- $TGT at $50 for $F.
Learn from your mistakes then let them go. The future is all that matters.
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UPDATED. There’s been a lot of discussion about whether $AAPL deserves a $3T valuation.
Current: $AAPL PE 31
LOW BETA:
$ABBV PE 32
$HRL PE 30
$HSY PE 29
$KO PE 30
$TR PE 40
$UNH PE 29
$PEP PE 29
$PG PE 30
$WMT PE 50
$YUM PE 26
I know which I’d rather bet on.
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What are you looking forward to next week?
I’ve got $DKNG, $ETSY, $RDFN, $SQ, and $TDOC. High bar for all.
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Updated Top Positions:
$TDOC
$AMZN
$SE
$PINS
$JD
$DKNG
$ETSY
$AAPL
Yes, I went from zero $AAPL to a lot of $AAPL in one trading day. 🤷♀️
There’s a large drop off after my top 8. But if I’m wrong and $AAPL has a lot of downside left, it’ll be back—eventually.
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Can’t believe I hit 20,000 followers.
I’m blessed to be surrounded by experienced investors IRL and on fintwit.
My goal is to give back as much as possible. Thanks for following!
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Decision making 🧵🪡
In the stock market and in life, we spend a lot of time and energy choosing between equally appealing alternatives.
If you’re paralyzed by choice, here are 5 methods to help you make hard decisions:
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Despite the selloff, I am quite pleased with the earnings report from $PINS.
On-platform transactions are coming this year, which means $PINS is about to become the best e-commerce site in the world.
How many platforms welcome ads because they improve the user experience?
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If you’re using an anonymous account to make fun of other investors, you’re a bad person and should feel bad.
Tension is always high during pullbacks, but that’s no excuse to behave like a high school bully.
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It’s been a rough couple days in the market, but I have exciting news.
I’m starting a podcast as part of a partnership with Callin, David Sacks’ new social podcasting platform.
The app is iOS-only for now, so you can find it in the App Store and make sure to follow me.
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There’s a shortage of healthcare professionals in rural areas.
In some places, it can take weeks to get an appointment for primary care or pediatrics.
With rural hospitals continuing to close, the problem will only get worse.
Long $TDOC.
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One of the trends we like is EVs.
Chinese EVs were due for a pullback but are likely to do well over the next 1-3 years.
Raise your hand if you’re long $LI, $NIO or $XPEV.
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Great investments don’t have to be sexy.
Over the past 5 years, $EL gained 384%, more than:
$AMZN 344%
$CMG 363%
$COST 279%
$CRM 271%
$FB 192%
$GOOG 275%
$TGT 220%
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At the intraday high, $TDOC was up more than the cost of my first shares of $LVGO.
That count as a spiffy pop? I’m counting it.
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There’s a lot of negativity on fintwit right now. But everyone got caught up in the 2020 growth craze.
Last year anyone who mentioned risk management or value was ignored or laughed at.
Your portfolio is your responsibility. Do your own DD and know your risk tolerance.
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Unpopular Opinion: $OTRK is not the next $LVGO. Take the money and run.
-CEO has a history of overpromising and under delivering, leaving investors holding the bag.
-$OTRK claims to be an AI enabled healthcare company. I can’t find any evidence of it.
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UNPOPULAR OPINION: Participate in stocks like $FTCH and $NIO with lower risk by holding $BABA, $JD, and $TECHY.
The monsters of Chinese tech have their fingers in everything.
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Getting ready for another big earnings week.
I’ve got $ABNB, $APPH (starter), $EGLX, $OPEN, and $U.
What are you most excited about?
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Fun fact. The $NFLX employee expense policy is only five words long.
“Act in Netflix’s best interests.”
🤯
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I fell down a rabbit hole last night researching $WISH on Tiktok and Insta.
Social e-commerce is just getting started, and it’s going to be 🔥.
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$PINS is a much better platform now than it was a year ago. Will add soon.
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I just finished How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins. A must-read for every investor. Here's how to spot a great company in decline:
Most declines are self-inflicted. Great companies go through 5 stages of decline:
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Fintwit 2020: $TSLA will be the most valuable company in the world. 🚀
Fintwit 2023: $TSLA to zero. I always thought it was overvalued.
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My biggest winner for the month is $MGNI. Up 86%.
I own 24 shares from my experiment in small caps.
Market value $433. Position size matters. 😆
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When does $PYPL become too cheap to ignore?
I’m not looking to buy a falling knife. Just wondering what everyone thinks about valuation.
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Disruptive medical devices sounds like a fun moonshot portfolio.
$BFLY
$EAR
$HCAQ
$NNOX
What am I missing?
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This is my pre-vaccine portfolio.
It’s also my post-vaccine portfolio. I don’t rotate.
E-commerce:
$AMZN, $SE, $JD, $PINS, $BABA, $ETSY
Medtech:
$TDOC, $VEEV, $TLMD
Real estate:
$Z, $IPOB, $RDFN
Brands:
$AAPL(synthetic long), $LULU
Other bets:
$DKNG, $SQ
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Tech in free fall, so it’s time for another puppy pic.
Deep breaths, y’all. The best stocks always come back—eventually.
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$SQ Q4 Results:
-Revenue $3.16B vs $3.11B expected, up 141% YoY
-EPS $0.32 vs $0.24 expected
-Subscription and service revenue $449M, up 60% YoY
Full Year 2020:
-Revenue $9.5B, up 101% YoY
-Gross Profit $2.73B, up 45%YoY
-Subscription and service revenue $1.54B, up 49% YoY
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Just found my written notes from March 2020. It’s titled “Stocks on Sale” and my top picks were:
$MSFT
$ADBE
$TSLA
$SHOP
Sadly, I did not buy all of them. 😭
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I was curious, so here are my top 10 stocks as of close yesterday:
$AMZN
$SE
$PINS
$JD
$DKNG
$ETSY
$EGLX
$SQ
$U
$Z
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You don’t see this every day.
🤯 💥
Thank you to all the China longs who called for calm over the last few days.
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It’s been an epic year, but I’ve been wrong about many things.
Sold $SPOT, $PTON, and $TTD.
Passed on $TDOC under $60, then at $100 figured, “How much room could it have left to run?”
Never give up. You’ve got to play to win.
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Nobody wants to hear from a growth investor right now. But the selling always stops eventually.
It’ll be ok.
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What a day.
I hit 10,000 followers, iBuying is on fire, and $JD is trying to close above $100.
Thanks for following, y’all!
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I updated my momentum list. Power earnings gaps and new 52-week highs.
$AMD
$ATLC
$AVTR
$DDOG
$EPAM
$FTNT
$HUBS
$KR (Earnings in Sept.)
$MELI
$NET
$ON
$PAYC
$SHOP
$SNAP
$SQ
$TEAM
$UPST
$ZI
What are you watching?
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It’s not fun when your favorite stocks are 50% to 60% off the ATH and the bulls disappear.
I’m going to keep holding $GDRX and $TDOC. I want to stay invested as the space evolves.
Healthcare is the largest sector of the US economy that’s never been substantially disrupted.
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Who’s excited about $ZM Q4 results?
-Non-GAAP EPS of $1.22 beats by $0.43
-GAAP EPS of $0.87 beats by $0.39
-Revenue of $882.5M (+368.7% Y/Y) beats by $71.54M.
~467,100 customers with more than 10 employees, up approx. 470% YoY
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I’m a genius because I sold $PTON at $32 to avoid the brutal drop to $55.
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Congratulations to all the China bulls. We were right. 💥
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I did a podcast. If you’re bored, listen to me talk stocks.
Style, process, and a few stocks I’m bullish on. $GDRX, $TDOC, $Z, $RDFN, etc.
🚨 PODCAST ALERT 🚨
We've got a Talking Stocks bonus episode!
@ebcapital
and I caught up with
@jablamsky
today. We talked sell strategy, selecting
#stocks
, and got a little smattering of
#stockpicks
.
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Well, I’m an idiot. Yesterday I bought $SPY March 25 puts. I meant to grab April 14. 🤦♀️
Thank goodness it was a very small hedge. But I’m not gonna lie, it hurt a little.
Sharing because we all make mistakes. Just have to take the L and move on.
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My father is an amazing investor. It’s a good time to review his stock market rules:
1. Never risk what you can’t afford to lose.
2. Something is only worth as much as someone else is willing to pay for it.
3. You’ve got nothing till you sell.
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$SNAP is a great reminder that after an 85% drop, your favorite shitco can still go down another 25%.
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I am quite pleased with $PINS Q4 results:
Non-GAAP EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.10
GAAP EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.13.
Revenue of $706M (+76.5% Y/Y) beats by $58.92M.
Adjusted EBITDA of $299M (consensus: $225.6M)
Global MAUs grew 37% Y/Y to 459.0M vs. a consensus of 449.6M.
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$ETSY Thread. Full disclosure: I'm long.
In 2020, consumers spent approximately $861B online with U.S. retailers, up 44% YoY, according to est. from Digital Commerce 360.
That's nearly 3x the growth in 2019 of 15.1%.
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Unpopular Opinion: Be careful.
$PLTR has 60% public ownership. The pullback will be swift and brutal.
I never use stops. But I’d use stops on all the small cap meme stocks right now. $PLTR, $JUMIA, $NIO
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This is an interesting perspective on when the bull market began.
Thoughts?
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There’s been some confusion about the date of the final lockup expiration for $ABNB.
Based on the prospectus, I believe it already passed. But I emailed IR to confirm.
If I hear back, I’ll let y’all know.
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Big week. I’m excited for $PINS, $TDOC, and $AMZN.
Who’s excited?
Today we preview the biggest week of Q1 earnings, with over 45% of the S&P’s market cap set to report.
$AMZN $FB $AAPL $GOOGL $MSFT $TSLA $SHOP $AMD $PINS $TDOC $NIO $TWTR
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Now that I have over 9,000 followers, I can finally post this gif. 😊
Happy Friday, y’all.
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$TDOC is looking weak today. If it breaks $200, I’m buying LEAP calls.
Price won’t be weak forever. What do you think, traders?
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