Hawkeye Analytics
@iowaanalytics
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Tweeting about Iowa sports from an analytical, level-headed point of view.
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1.72 line yards per carry vs Utah State is a problem.
Iowa averaged 2.50 in 2022, 129th in FBS.
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Most consistent FBS teams since 2013, using SP+ standard deviation (average rating):
1. Alabama (32.6)
2. Boise State (7.4)
3. Middle Tennessee (-9.9)
4. Utah (14.6)
5. Oklahoma (20.9)
6. Ohio State (29.4)
7. Texas A&M (16.5)
8. Iowa (15.5)
(not including JMU's one season)
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Uh, Richman had a 4.3 (out of 100) grade in pass blocking yesterday
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I feel like we are exaggerating the difference between the 2022 and 2023 WR rooms.
2022:
Ragaini
Bruce
Vines
Brecht
2023:
Ragaini
Brown
Anderson
Vines
A little more depth, but still a lot of questions.
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Part of what's so impressive about this Iowa defense is that they are not relying on turnovers like they usually do, so there is an even bigger need to get stops straight up, and they are succeeding.
Iowa currently has its fewest TOs forced per game since at least 2008 (1.2).
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lol if Iowa won and Clark did that to Reese we would all be FINE with it
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People are going to make that about the contract, but Iowa has had plenty of chances to inflate their scoring this season and not taken them.
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Of the 5 primary QBs Iowa has faced this season, none rank in the top half of the 152 qualifiers in longest average time to throw.
This week's opponent Card is 14th.
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Iowa doesn't play many games where they are this unlikely to win. I know it's not their style, but their path to winning is to use high risk strategies and hope they go your way. Increase the variance.
When in doubt, go for it on 4th, take deep shots, etc.
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2016 and 2017 Alabama both allowed 3.99 yards per play, but looking closer (more decimal places), 2022 Iowa allowed less than both.
Iowa's 2022 defense allowed the least yards per play since 2012 Florida State (3.85).
Iowa's defense is almost certainly going to finish the season
#1
in the country in yards per play at 3.99.
They are the first team since 2017 Alabama to allow less than 4 yards per play in a full season.
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In March, 43% of Iowa WBB's shots have been 3s.
That's a high-risk strategy, which is usually what you need to pull big upsets.
If they take a ton of 3s vs South Carolina, it increases the chances they lose by 20+, but it also increases the chances they win.
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Guess I'm going to be the positive guy now:
Iowa isn't suddenly way worse because they're losing to arguably the best team in the country in a game where the bounces haven't gone their way.
I would guess they improve in the predictive ratings this week.
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Michigan has 3.7 yards per play, which is in the 5th percentile.
Iowa has 2.4, in the 0th percentile.
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Iowa and Kentucky are not the same, but this is basically why fans of any team should be careful constantly demanding "the next level" (especially the last 1:30 or so).
Ask Nebraska how its unrealistic expectations are going - and they even have the history.
About half of my epic rant in defense of Mark Stoops at Kentucky on the
@Cover3Podcast
Stoops was pretty honest on his radio show. But there is a lot more truth he can’t say. I said it for him.
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A change at OC by itself will not make that big of a difference in the offense next season.
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Iowa State has had a better success rate than Iowa 4 Cy-Hawk games in a row.
Iowa is 3-1.
Did We Really Get Beat that Bad?
Net Success Rates in Week 2 Games
76
96
1K
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Iowa finishes 11 (!) plays short of its previous low since 2001, with 33.
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This was the Iowa offense's worst game of the season by yards per play, and only average for the defense. They won every other factor though, and it was enough for a 57% win expectancy by my calculations.
#Hawkeyes
#Badgers
Five Factors Summary: A summary of the game using
@ESPN_BillC
's five factors.
More info here:
#Hawkeyes
#Badgers
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I think it's fair to admit that ESPN is overdoing the whole 3,000 thing.
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Iowa is playing better than the score indicates, especially on offense.
Good consistency (both) and explosiveness (offense) numbers, but -2 in turnovers and a missed field goal.
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Really don't understand the "today's game doesn't matter for Iowa" narrative.
1. They are extremely unlikely to win next week either way
2. This is literally a rivalry game
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A lot of people are pretending that 47 rushes for 118 yards plus 1 rush for 82 yards means the running game is fixed
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Iowa's offensive SP+ since 2005. Clear 2 season trend, obviously, but note the overall trend. Does that look like an OC problem, or a program problem? The offense was showing improvement Brian's first few seasons - the most consistent improvement over the whole span.
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Kirk can dunk on USC, and winning games is the goal, but most predictive metrics have USC considerably better than Iowa this season, not to mention previous seasons when USC had the better record.
Iowa defense : USC defense :: USC offense : Iowa offense
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"Conventional analytics don't apply to Iowa"
You probably also said that when Iowa started 6-0 and got to
#2
.
They lost the turnover battle 7-1 and lost 51-14 in their next 2 games.
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Some notes on South Dakota State:
We talk about Iowa's turnover margin, but S Dakota St has had a positive margin each season since 2018. Was better than Iowa's in 2 of those 4 seasons, including 2021 (0.93/game, 2nd in FCS vs 0.90/game, 3rd in FBS)
#hawkeyes
#jackrabbits
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Still have bowl games, but list of FBS teams to allow less than 4 yards per play since 2017:
2022 Iowa
2023 Iowa
2023 Penn State
Iowa's defense has allowed 3.99 yards per play through 13 games. this is the second straight year they have allowed less than 4 yards per play in 13 games...which is mind-boggling
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Probably the defense's best game this season so far.
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Iowa has an offensive success rate of 32%.
There are six FBS teams that are lower.
They are a combined 0-12.
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If a play was successful, it was a good play call. The OC is a genius.
If a play was not successful, it was a bad play call. The OC sucks.
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The fact that 3 of the top 6 are Iowa vs rivals is hilarious.
I'm not sure we have appreciated this run enough.
What teams seem to be snakebitten against a particular opponent?
This table looks at matchups from the past 10 years where, based on postgame statistics, you'd expect one team to have more wins.
Not at all surprised to see Iowa make multiple appearances as spoiler in this list.
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Keep in mind Brown was not in for Spring.
I feel like we're going to expect too much right away.
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According to 247 composite (since ~2000), Iowa has never had a WR recruit rated as highly as Kaleb Brown was in 2022.
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That is a credit to the offensive line, but he's holding the ball for more than 3 seconds before throwing and has been pressured on 35% of dropbacks, also more than any QB Iowa has played.
Iowa has to get to him in this game.
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Iowa's defense is almost certainly going to finish the season
#1
in the country in yards per play at 3.99.
They are the first team since 2017 Alabama to allow less than 4 yards per play in a full season.
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The point here is that Iowa won the game on big plays, including a blocked FG and a pick six, which are smaller sample size events (and more prone to randomness). ISU was better in a more consistent way, but Iowa made the plays that mattered more (again).
Advanced analytics are great for a lot of things, but it doesn’t take into account the eye test. Once Iowa went up 17-0, they weren’t going to lose. They controlled pace, tempo and momentum in every phase for most of the game.
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Torvik agrees. Adding Nelson would improve Iowa's defensive rating by about 27 spots and overall rating by about 10 spots in Torvik's projections for next season.
Man.. a guy like that could legitimately transcend the defense 25+ spots nationally. That’s what I really salivate over. The difference between having that guy as your defensive anchor and what it currently would be as-is
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Iowa State and Filip Rebraca have the same amount of threes in this game.
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I don't think we should view Iowa that differently after this game. It's the same team as before, they just lost this particular coin flip.
My perspective was probably considered pessimistic a week ago, and now probably seems optimistic.
Iowa was never that likely to go 11-1.
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It wasn't ruled an actual fair catch, it was ruled an invalid fair catch signal, which I'm pretty sure is the correct call, if a weird and inconsistently called rule.
I don't think the ref can be faulted here.
Referee Tim O'Dey, who called Cooper's 'fair catch', was also the line judge during last year's Iowa-Minnesota game when he called Jack Campbell out on his interception, which would have been a go-ahead touchdown in the final 2 minutes.
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199
2K
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Reminder that what coaches say in press conferences/interviews doesn't really matter (especially for Kirk), and if you're not going to like what they say no matter what, I recommend not paying attention to it.
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I mean, is this weird?
Teams tend to run more under center and pass more out of shotgun. I would need to national averages, but I suspect these aren't far off.
Kind of feels like we just want something to be mad about.
Astonishing stuff here from
@scottdochterman
on predictability of Iowa’s historically anemic offense.
When under center: 76% run play
When in shotgun: 76% pass play
When in 11 personnel (1 RB/1 TE):
100% shotgun and 79% pass play
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433
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Those same QBRs with Brown's snap counts:
19.7; 5 (not sure how many were with Hill)
2.1; 0
4.8; 0
9.0; 0
21.9; 4
58.2; 30
59.7; unknown but large
That's.... even more correlation than I expected.
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Iowa has the
#2
defense in the country according to SP+. This while:
- 2 transferred players were All Big 12 1st/2nd team (Brents, Doyle)
- 3 would-be starters were injured most/all of the season
- Of the main rotation players plus the 5 listed, only 3 were 4+ stars
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Calling this one now would be unfair
Everyone agrees that targeting is called too much, except when it's the other team
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Pretty much every stat I have found says that Mast is better now than Rebraca was 2 years ago, offensively and defensively.
If Iowa gets Mast and you're upset and it's not good enough i don't have words for you.
He's one of the best bigs available. Can score from all 3 levels, will be great in a pick and pop game. Shot 35% from 3 last year, rebounds and anchored a pretty good Bradley defense.
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A lot of being made of the plays run discrepancy between Iowa and Penn State, but important to note that one of the factors in that is Iowa's defense not allowing any plays of 20+ yards.
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Iowa isn't playing too badly overall, just not getting the big plays.
You can't expect to win every game in the margins, especially when you're playing teams that are also good at it.
Some Michigan ranks:
SP+ special teams: 5th
Turnover margin: 3rd
Penalty yards/game: 1st
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I would argue that as a whole, Iowa played better in this game than in the Illinois and Nebraska games when accounting for opponent quality.
Even the offense wasn't that much worse.
Guess I'm going to be the positive guy now:
Iowa isn't suddenly way worse because they're losing to arguably the best team in the country in a game where the bounces haven't gone their way.
I would guess they improve in the predictive ratings this week.
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[Michigan State hits a contested deep 2 with 1 second on the shot clock]
"lol this defense sucks"
Forcing a shot like that is literally good defense.
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Lowest isolated explosiveness allowed, avg of '17-'22 seasons (EPA per successful play):
1. Iowa (1.08)
2. Washington (1.11)
3. BYU (1.12)
4. Cal (1.12)
5. E Michigan (1.13)
6. S Carolina (1.14)
7. Georgia (1.16)
8. Tennessee (1.16)
9. Northwestern (1.16)
10. Nebraska (1.18)
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Positive: Iowa is moving the ball and clutchness is volatile.
Negative: 44% of Iowa's yards are from NW penalties, and often Iowa's first drives are its best.
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Yes the fumble, BUT
Iowa was clearly looking for a deep shot on 2nd & 2 after a completion.
Only their second, 2nd & short pass this season, and first not at the goal line.
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I hope I'm not coming across as too negative. I'm super happy with 10-2, and some of these games have been really fun.
I generally lean toward not overreacting (good or bad), which makes me seem contrarian, whichever direction that is.
(1/2)
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I don't remember this being a thing in 2022, but Iowa seems much better in scripted drives vs non-scripted drives this season.
Something to watch.
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I think the average fan would enjoy sports more if we were better at managing expectations.
I don't see how people can be so pessimistic about Brian and also say that 10 wins is the floor or even the most likely outcome.
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I'll take a 10 point deficit after the bad breaks Iowa got
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Iowa finishes at 1.8 line yards per carry
1.72 line yards per carry vs Utah State is a problem.
Iowa averaged 2.50 in 2022, 129th in FBS.
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Iowa State MBB, WBB, and wrestling are all top 20.
They all lost to Iowa this week.
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Caitlin Clark's FG% at each distance this season and how that compares to D1 average
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Caitlin Clark is 45/106 on threes from 25-30 feet. That is 42.5% on a not small sample size. D1 average on those shots is 29.9%.
She is 9/24 (37.5%) on shots from 30+ feet, where most players barely shoot from if at all.
To me, that's one of the strongest cases for NPOY.
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Four Factors Summary: A summary of the game using Dean Oliver's four factors.
Iowa won all four factors vs Seton Hall, the most dominant being getting to the line and making free throws.
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Iowa in 2022:
2nd & 1:
12 run, 0 pass (100% run)
3rd & 1:
14 run, 3 pass (82% run)
4th & 1:
3 run, 2 pass (60% run)
That seems.... backwards
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However, it's always my real, non-contrived opinions, and I'm always happy to win.
I just think it's possible to be a fan who enjoys winning while also being fair and honest.
Go Hawks
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Iowa's drives starting in opponent territory averaged the 34 yard line.
On average, teams score about 4.0 PPD starting here. Iowa averaged 2.6 on those drives.
2.6 is average for team starting around their own 44.
So Notre Dame and Iowa offenses are even worse than they look on a stat sheet in theory
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UPDATED SP+ RANKINGS.
* 3 weeks, 3 different No. 1s
* No. 1 at No. 4 in South Bend this coming Saturday
* RISING: NMSU, Clemson, A&M, UCLA
* FALLING: Mich St (duh), FSU, Vols, Penn State?
* SEC's still No. 1, but the ZOMBIE PAC-12 is closing the gap!!
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Iowa MBB is currently 325th in 3P attempt rate (29.6%) despite being 95th in 3P% (35.6%).
They are taking more deep 2s (29.8%) than 3s.
Points per deep 2 attempt: 0.81
Points per 3 attempt: 1.07
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Anyone claiming that having a great record in close games means a team "just knows how to win":
See the 2022 and 2023 Minnesota Vikings.
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Michigan faced the three best defenses in CFB (not including themselves) this season.
I wonder when ALL THREE of those games happened?
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Even within the dicey rule about clear recoveries after the whistle, I don't think you can call that.
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Offensive rebound %:
Iowa: 36%
Michigan State: 13%
Not getting much attention, but gave Iowa a lot of extra chances that helped negate 3P% difference.
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Updated Big Ten schedule analysis.
These numbers account for strength of permanent opponents and average of rotating opponents (taking permanents and yourself out, and weighting for amount of games).
A weighted average SP+ from 2018-2023, minus 2020, estimates team strength.
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What exactly do fans want Brian to say in these press conferences?
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Iowa is -14% in net 3P% but wins this game at the line and on the glass. Really impressive.
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Iowa's 2023 yards per play by drive.
Reinforces the idea that the scripts are decent.
6.5 YPP on all plays would rank 26th in FBS.
(Drive 4 is largely driven by 2 huge plays - it hasn't been very consistent)
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Not sure if this is good analysis, but I'm going to try to be positive.
Could say that Iowa had some bad luck in 1H, then was game scripted out of it in 2H.
D is exhausted. PSU D could tee off on the pass.
PSU has 3.7 YPP and a 5% explosive rate, so D still playing solid.
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Iowa's spring games don't need gimmicky scoring rules. Just run offense vs defense, most points wins.
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A lot of people are pretending that 47 rushes for 118 yards plus 1 rush for 82 yards means the running game is fixed
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Had a couple people ask about defense and special teams. Here are Iowa's overall, offense, defense, and special teams SP+ ranks since 2005.
Really looks like defense and special teams are maxing out while offense is tanking.
Iowa's offensive SP+ since 2005. Clear 2 season trend, obviously, but note the overall trend. Does that look like an OC problem, or a program problem? The offense was showing improvement Brian's first few seasons - the most consistent improvement over the whole span.
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Wins and points per game are not the best indicators of offensive strength.
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KenPom ranks:
43. Penn State
47. Iowa
Torvik ranks:
48. Penn State
52. Iowa
@Shot_Quality
ranks:
18. Iowa
69. Penn State
Iowa has had bad shooting luck, and PSU good shooting luck. SQ has Iowa about 1 win better than its record, and PSU about 2 wins worse than its record.
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Iowa:
-
#38
overall (even in rating, up 1 spot)
-
#117
offense (-0.6 points, down 9 spots)
-
#1
defense (-0.4 points (good), up 1 spot)
-
#3
special teams (+0.2 points, up 22 spots)
About 8 points better than Purdue at home.
UPDATED SP+ RANKINGS
* No. 1 actually remains the same for once
* Texas > Georgia, eh?
* SEC: best depth
* Big Ten: best top 2
* Pac-12: best top 3
* Screw it, let's go ahead and break out the resume rankings (you're welcome, PSU)!
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Five Factors Summary:
Iowa was better in every area except for the long TD pass (they win YPP without it).
As much as Iowa can make an analytical perspective look stupid in a good way, Nebraska keeps doing so in a bad way.
Which I am totally fine with.
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Iowa was dominated in rebounding, but won each of the other 3 factors: shooting, turnovers, and free throws.
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1
11
Caitlin Clark's average made 3 distance is 7 inches further than second place.
The longest range shooters in women's college hoops:
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To go with what Jon and
@hawkeyegamefilm
have been tweeting, here are some Iowa offensive line stats from 2018-2022 from
@fboutsiders
.
These are not competition-adjusted, so probably not a bottom 10 FBS OL, but still a clear negative trend.
Kaleb Johnson averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 142 attempts behind an offensive line and part of an overall offense that was...challenged, to say the least. Pretty remarkable. Here are the Iowa RB's in the KF era who have had at least 142 carries and averaged at least 5ypc
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Retweeted this a few days ago, but I want to add some commentary.
- This illustrates how being >50% to win 10 individual games is not the same as being expected to go 10-2
- Iowa is likely to have a better offense than at least 1/3 of their schedule
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