Hlhuss22
@hlhuss22
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NFL Model Maker and Bettor | 2024 @4for4 NFL betting content writer | Ask me anything | Promo HUSS gets new users 25% off at
Joined December 2018
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Pinned Tweet
With the
@4for4Bets
announcement today, I will pin my promo code that allows discounted access to not only my content all season, but all data and content on the 4for4 platform ⬇️
Promo HUSS gets new users 25% off at
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@tejfbanalytics
Leveon Bell is trying to make a comeback and you know he doesn't think he's number 2
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Week 8 NFL Recap: 8-3 +8.93 Units
YTD NFL Recap: 64-42-1 +41.32 Units
FOURTY ONE UNITS YALL
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2023 NFL Season Recap: 94-77-2 +25.27 Units
Sides: 48-38-2 +20.21 Units
Overs: 28-22 +5.22 Units
Unders: 18-17 -.16 Units
Win Percentage: 54.97%
Average Odds: 1.93 or -108
Average Bet Size: 2.39U
2022 NFL Season Recap: 121-91-5 +50.80 Units
Sides: 81-57-4 +48.44 Units
Overs: 17-19-0 -11.93 Units
Unders: 22-13-1 +19.82 Units
Other: 1-2-0 -5.53 Units
Win Percentage: 57.08%
Average Odds: 1.977 or -102
Average Bet Size: 2.47 U
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@tejfbanalytics
This kinda reminds me of the Reddit post of "if you regress all of mahomes' stats back to average, he's really only an average QB "
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2022 NFL Season Recap: 121-91-5 +50.80 Units
Sides: 81-57-4 +48.44 Units
Overs: 17-19-0 -11.93 Units
Unders: 22-13-1 +19.82 Units
Other: 1-2-0 -5.53 Units
Win Percentage: 57.08%
Average Odds: 1.977 or -102
Average Bet Size: 2.47 U
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2022 NFL Regular season recap:
Week 17 recap: 7-4 +5.33 Units
Week 18 recap: 2-2 +1.48 Units
2022 NFL Regular Season total: 113-85-5 +46.23 Units
57.07 Win percent at average odds of -102
Week 16 NFL; the very late recap: 7-4 +6.58 Units
NFL YTD: 104-79-5 +39.41 Units
Finally back home to make updates for week 17. Ill have plays tomorrow. 9.1% and 11.9% CLV on the two week 17 plays sent out so far. Hope you got in.
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Week 11 Recap:
ATL +7 🗑️
ATL/NE U47.5 ✅
BAL/CHI U44.5 ✅
IND +7 X2 ✅✅
DAL -2.5 🗑️
HOU +10 ✅
WAS +3.5 ✅
WAS/CAR O42 ✅
NO/PHI U43 🗑️
MIN ML ✅
8-3 +9.5U ✅
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Week 1 NFL Recap: 8-6 +1.86 Units
Week 2 NFL Recap: 10-6 +2.41 Units
Week 3 NFL Recap: 7-5-1 +4.55 Units
Week 4 NFL Recap: 10-5 +13.25 Units
NFL YTD = 35-22-1 +22.07 Units
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Week 15 NFL Recap: 6-3 +6.05 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 76-61-2 +24.63 units.
Week 14 NFL Recap: 7-2 +12.10 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 70-58-2 +18.58 units.
Early Christmas gifts given out in the form of Week 14 NFL. Dolphins almost got gifted the cover but decided to hand it back.
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2023 NFL Week 1:
CLE ML v CIN +115* (3U)
*I actually took +117
@CircaSports
, but it is not a widely available number. I will grade this as +115 on
@betstamp
.
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Week 10 NFL Recap: 6-1 +10.41 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 46-41-1 +.24 units.
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Week 14 NFL; The Hangover recap: 7-1 +14.85U
NFL YTD: 93-71-4 +34.05U
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Week 9 NFL Recap: 6-5-2 +2.16 Units
YTD NFL Recap: 70-47-3 +43.47 Units
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I reposted the entire thread, but this is the single most important one imo. Twitter allows people to run with reckless abandon and I too once got caught up following the wrong people.
I narrowed down who I follow and post my plays with current numbers to hopefully help others.
If you're wondering why this fires me up, it's because a younger version of myself, who dealt with problem gaming issues, would have taken something like this as gospel. A person with a big following who is well spoken can do some serious damage in the betting space.
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2023 NFL Divisional Weekend: 1-2 -3.11 Units
2023 NFL YTD Recap: 92-75-2 +25.72 Units
3 games left. It's going to be hard but I still think +30 units is possible.
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Bringing back the betting sides and totals for every Thanksgiving day game (and black Friday upon demand?).
Some plays will be my standard unit range, but most will only be 1U plays.
Thanksgiving time again. I will be releasing a side and total pick in every thanksgiving game again this year. Keep in mind they will be mostly small bets.
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I didn't forget about this.... Who's ready for 30 NFL futures??
I took a bit of a different approach this year. Mostly + odds plays for season longs, with the exception of player O/U lines.
I'll tweet them out in groups, and then will pin the full sheet.
Every year on my birthday (aka today) I plan to do 30 season long futures. However, this year real life has been a little in the way.
I plan to have these futures out this weekend though. Stay tuned.
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Week 18 NFL Recap: 2-3 -0.68 units.
2023 NFL Regular Season Recap: 87-73-2 +20.32 units.
2023 NFL Season Long Futures: 12-18 +3.05 units.
Feel like variance went in my favor in 2022 and against me in 2023. Either way, people are saying that's like top 2%:
I made about 40 $1,000 bets during each week of the season and I ended up winning about $2,500. If you don’t know that’s like top 2%.
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@RASPicks
@NFLPinnacleBeat
Doesn't that last sentence contradict the tweet directly before it?
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Week 16 NFL Recap: 6-4 +2.83 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 82-65-2 +27.46 units.
I missed the recap last night so Im here for
@actionjaxson100
's Transparency Tuesdays.
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2023 NFL Week 1; adding:
GB ML v CHI +120 (3U)
Still available at quite a few places like DK, Bet365, Bet MGM, Betfred. Love this one.
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I set out on this account to not only hold myself accountable for my own bets, but to hopefully give newer bettors an option to follow and stay afloat while they figure out the basics of bankroll management and finding their own edges.
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Week 14 NFL Recap: 7-2 +12.10 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 70-58-2 +18.58 units.
Early Christmas gifts given out in the form of Week 14 NFL. Dolphins almost got gifted the cover but decided to hand it back.
Week 13 NFL Recap: 6-3 +4.89 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 63-56-2 +6.48 units.
The odd part is that both plays reaching 5% CLV last week lost, along with the CAR/TB under. Onto week 14.
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What happens when the nerds do know ball?
If you own an NFL team hire
@ericeager_
and the team
@SumerSports
to be your next GM/ football operations division. I learned more in an hour about the sweet science of football then my previous 11 years as a player. Episode will be out in the coming weeks!
@NetWorthShow
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Jets: We are going to start Tim Boyle next week because he has a fundamental understanding of the Hackett playbook.
Hacketts playbook:
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Week 10 NFL Recap: 6-4 +2.89 Units
YTD NFL Recap: 76-51-3 +46.37 Units
CLV: 2.9%
ROI: 14.2%
Average odds: +100
Total Win %: 59.84%
Average bet size: 2.39 Units
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Week 8 NFL Recap: 1-3 -6.85 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 40-39-1 -7.88 units.
I am still alive. I'm in Maui for the week. Originally I planned on having a friend place bets for me for the week, but I've been so ice cold on NFL that I am just going to take the week off.
Week 7 NFL Recap: 2-5 -7.56 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 39-36-1 -1.02 units.
Ugly.
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Here we go. Have a Happy Thanksgiving from my family to yours:
Sides:
DAL -8 -109 (3U)
DET +10 -109 (1U)
MIN -2.5 -107 (2U)
Totals:
DAL U46 -107 (1U)
DET O54 -107 (1U)
MIN O41.5 -112 (1U)
Bet all 3 totals on
@CircaSports
, which means I'm likely going against the sharp side.
Thanksgiving NFL sides:
DAL -8 -109 (3U)*
DET +10 -109 (1U)
MIN -2.5 -107 (2U)
*Bet Sunday night
I think Detroit moves off 10 tomorrow. I will send the 3 totals tomorrow and then make one tweet with all 6 plays for Thursday.
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Week 3 NFL Recap: 6-6-1 -.24 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 23-17-1 +10.13 units.
A 1-0-1 MNF has us just losing some juice. On to week 4.
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A lot of new people following this season. Here is the 2022 recap:
2022 NFL Season Recap: 121-91-5 +50.80 Units
Sides: 81-57-4 +48.44 Units
Overs: 17-19-0 -11.93 Units
Unders: 22-13-1 +19.82 Units
Other: 1-2-0 -5.53 Units
Win Percentage: 57.08%
Average Odds: 1.977 or -102
Average Bet Size: 2.47 U
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@ItshyaBoiDVanP
@Clevta
Just gonna let the whole part about what they would have to give up for Jefferson float away in the wind there?
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Week 6 NFL Recap: 5-3 +2.3 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 37-31-1 +6.53 units.
Back in the positive finally after a few weeks of a small skid. Still ice cold on overs.
Week 5 NFL Recap: 4-6 -3.06 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 32-28-1 +4.23 units.
I am getting incredibly frustrated with over bets right now.
Game totals overs only: 2-8 -15.3U +2.4% CLV
Team total overs only: 3-0 +7.5U
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2023 NFL Week 2:
KC -2.5 vs JAX
Stake 3.3U tw 3U
Sorry for the late night firing here. Get this one before it hits -3.
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2023-24 NFL Superbowl:
KC TT O23.5 -105 v SF
Stake 2.63U tw 2.5U
Current pricing across the market:
@CircaSports
: 23.5 +100
ESPNBet: 23.5 -105
DK: 23.5 -108
FD: 23.5 -110
Caesars: 23.5 -115
Will grade at -105
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2023 NFL Week 1; adding:
BUF vs NYJ U46.5
Stake 2.2U tw 2U
Maybe a team total tomorrow. Only this one for tonight.
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Week 12 Recap:
WAS ML ✅
TEN/NE U44.5 ✅
LAR ML 🗑️
NYJ +3 ✅
DEN/LAC O47 🗑️
BUF -5.5 ✅
TB -3 ✅
CIN -3.5 ✅
ATL/JAX U47 ✅
DET ML 🗑️
DET/CHI O41.5 🗑️
LV +7.5 ✅
LV/DAL U51 🗑️
BUF/NO U45 ✅
DEN ML ✅
CLE +3 🗑️
10-6 +10.20U ✅
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As promised:
Week 11 NFL Recap: 4-5 -5.56 Units
YTD NFL Recap: 80-56-3 +40.81 Units
First losing week of the season. Let's get it right this week.
Not at my computer to recap Week 11, but it was my first losing week this season. I'll send out the full recap tomorrow night. Let's get back to the winning ways this week.
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Week 13 NFL Recap: 6-3 +4.89 units.
2023 YTD NFL Recap: 63-56-2 +6.48 units.
The odd part is that both plays reaching 5% CLV last week lost, along with the CAR/TB under. Onto week 14.
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NFL playoffs: Wild card weekend:
SEA +10 -120 (2U)*
SEA v SF O42 (2U)
*At BetMGM currently
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If you have followed my bets this week, MNF has started off as a nightmare so far.
Sorry.
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I finally checked out the hole in one stream for one single shot and it was the final stroke 2627.
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Every year on my birthday (aka today) I plan to do 30 season long futures. However, this year real life has been a little in the way.
I plan to have these futures out this weekend though. Stay tuned.
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3-0 on Christmas games. LFG
Will full recap week 15 tomorrow. Debating on a play until then.
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NFL Week 10; adding:
DET +3 -115 (2U)*
DET ML +125 (2U)
SEA ML +130 (3U)
DET +3 is currently at Fanduel, BetMGM, PB, and DK (-125).
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Week 16 NFL; the very late recap: 7-4 +6.58 Units
NFL YTD: 104-79-5 +39.41 Units
Finally back home to make updates for week 17. Ill have plays tomorrow. 9.1% and 11.9% CLV on the two week 17 plays sent out so far. Hope you got in.
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Nickelodeon has a better commentary crew for this one time game than ESPN can manage to put together in multiple years.
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NFL Week 3; all in 2 pictures (I'm not at home this morning for the typical pic):
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