Gurjot Ahluwalia
@gurjota
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I write about equity, personal finance, money hacks and my hobbies. Targeting Financial Freedom in 2025. *All opinions are my own, Likes & RTs ≠ Endorsements*
Not a SEBI Registered Advisor
Joined May 2009
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ドラフト
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FUN WITH LEGO x GEMFOT
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UNCONDITIONAL OUT NOW
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青春18きっぷ
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ヤクルト
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オリックス
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NuNew Medley Song
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ドラゴンズ
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育成指名
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LINEスタンプ
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APT FIRST WIN
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#素のまんま
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エルメス
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船井電機
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Washington Sundar
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#おひさまやれんの
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井上監督
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金丸くん
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ピッチャー
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Macierewicza
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選択終了
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まっすー
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宗山くん
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#ぐるナイ
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FUNAI
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Pinned Tweet
Is it possible to beat Nifty50 over a 10-15 year period without spending hundreds of hours researching on stocks or mutual funds to invest in?
A passive ETF which beats Nifty and has low underperformance during corrections.
A thread with analysis 🧵👇🏻
(1/n)
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Singapore has zero tax on capital gains
🚨 "We aim to create several Singapore's within India," says PM Modi.
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Made a credit card bill payment of 87,000 and received a maha cashback of ₹1 from Cred.
Time to stop sharing data with Cred and pay directly from bank portal.
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It is 45°C in Delhi and the common man has to pay 28% GST on air conditioners.
Nobody in this world can justify this rate of GST to me.
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Salaried taxpayers are disappointed they haven't received ₹15 lakh in their bank accounts in the past 10 years.
What should they do now?
My maid is disappointed as she did not receive ₹1 lakh as promised by a political party
What she can do now?
#SundayVibes
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I analyzed 25+ years of
#Nifty
data to better understand bear markets 🐻
Why?
Given the recent market sell-off and bearish stance of market participants, history and data is your best guide to prepare if we're headed for a bear market.
Thread with findings below 🧵👇
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In 2011, I was offered the job of a software engineer at Accenture.
Now my equity portfolio is 100x of that CTC.
I promise you 10-15 years of aggressive savings and investing will change your life forever!
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If you want your children to study in ISB, you need to pay 7 lakhs just as GST.
And I thought only taxes on luxury expenses like cars were insane.
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Kotak Mahindra Bank should lead by example and open bank branches from 9am-9pm Monday to Sunday.
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Shifting from Zerodha to Kotak Neo has saved me between 3 to 4 lakh in brokerage and taxes in last 1 year.
Daily Calculation
Avg orders = 50-70
Brokerage (₹20/order) = ₹1000-1400
18% GST = ₹180-252
Total Savings = ₹1180-1652
Annual Savings = ₹2.95 - 4.15 lacs 💵
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McDonald's McAloo Tikki burger price has increased at 12% CAGR in last 5 years!
Very interesting analysis from Kotak on price inflation of common consumer staples and discretionary products.
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Warren Buffett says you only need 4 or 5 right decisions to become very rich in life.
I thought about this and it's actually damn true, but this needs time.
If you can find just one 10x stock across 4 different market cycles, even 1 lakh capital will become 100 crores!
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If you're not happy with today's budget and the increase of STT, STCG, LTCG, then I have good news for you.
The next budget is only 6 months away
1 Feb 2025 🫡
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You will not believe this!
Even after such a raging bull market, the 10 year CAGR of Nifty is just 12%!
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4 years back, I first bought Beta Drugs at ₹59.
Today it hit ₹2000.
Buy right, sit tight.
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It took me 7.5 years for my first crore.
It only took me 1.5 years for my next crore.
Power of compounding and bull markets.
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In 11 years of investing, I have never seen a stock chart like this!
Will Trent become the first ever stock in the history of stock markets to hit a RSI of 100?
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If your salary income is more than 50 lakhs, you are in the top 0.5% of salaried class!
Also interesting to note, 19 people in India earn a salary of more than 100 crores!
Curious, who are these 19 people?
Many billionaires like Mukesh Ambani don't take salary.
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For just ₹12,000 - I got a 50 lakh health insurance from ICICI Lombard with all major features.
This is a top secret which no health insurer or financial advisor is telling you about.
A 50 lakh health cover typically costs ₹35-40k from all major health insurers.
🧵👇🏻
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Bear Market Summary
1. 🐻 occurs every ~3 years and avg 8 months to bottom
2. 🇮🇳 has only seen 2 bear markets in last 9 years
3. 🐻 recoveries take double the time (16 months)
4. Bull 🐂 markets can have multiple 🐻 phases
5. Increase equity allocation on 15%+ declines
END
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I have said this earlier, identify 20 best stock ideas and allocate 5% to each. Then watch the magic.
1 lakh to 2 lakhs
or
25 lakhs to 50 lakhs
They're just numbers.
Making 1 Lakh to 2 Lakhs is easy, making 25 Lakhs to 50 Lakhs you need a totally different conviction, understanding and risk management.
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The late Shri Ashwani Gujral was one of the few traders whose market outlook I used to listen keenly on CNBC when I began my investing journey
Here he is predicting a 75% fall in Adani group stocks exactly 6 months back
God bless his soul 🙏🏻
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Bull Market Sectors Keep Rotating
2023 - Real Estate, Capital Goods, Auto
2021 - Metals, IT, Power
2020 - Pharma, IT
2017 - Consumer, Real Estate, Metals
2014 - Banking, Consumer, Auto
Which sector will be the next bull market leader?
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Equity investing is like growing a Chinese Bamboo Tree.
Macpower gave 0 returns for 5 years between May 2018 to Aug 2023.
Now it's become 7x in 1 year!
PS: I was lucky to buy at rock bottom valuations and not have any waiting period.
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This thread took me 15+ hours of research and writing, so please retweet if you find it useful.
I will create a separate thread for bear markets in small caps if this thread gets enough traction.
Summary and Learnings of last 25 years of Bear Markets in 🇮🇳👇
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Timeless words of wisdom from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.
He lost 150 crores in 1 stock but never ever got angry with the promoter. Never blame anyone else for your losses.
"Never be afraid to make a mistake. Only make one you can afford, so you can live to make another one"
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25 Quality Stocks Failed to Beat Bank FDs in Last 3 Yrs
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Ridiculous elitist question.
Forget age 35, out of 140 crore Indians how many have ever achieved 20 crores of savings in their entire lifetime?
Can YOU retire at the age of 35 years, with say Rs.20 crores?
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In May 2014, the prescient Rakesh Jhunjhunwala predicted that India will witness the mother of all bull markets for next 7-10 years if NDA comes to power with Narendra Modi as Prime Minister.
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In 25 years, majority of Indian households won't be able to afford full time househelps.
In Tier I/metro city, I estimate their average pay around ₹15-20k.
At 6% inflation, it will become ₹65k-₹85k in 25 years.
Now is a good time to learn and do household chores ourselves.
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I promise you 10 years of aggressive savings and investing will get you financially ahead of 90% people!
It took me 7 years to accumulate my first crore.
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1.2 crores of unrealized profit in last 12 months.
What a bull market!!!
But there is a catch, can you guess?
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Highest ever IPO bid of 50 lakhs and I'm 100% sure of not getting any allotment 🤣
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Some banks are paying FD rate of interest on savings account balances.
Not sure how long this will last though.
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25 Stock Ideas from Top Holdings of 8 Renowned PMS
1) Abakkus - Emerging Opportunities | Small & Mid Cap
• Ion Exchange - 7%
• Jindal Stainless - 6%
• IIFL Finance - 6%
2) Equirus - Long Horizon Fund | Small Cap
• Thangamayil Jewellery Ltd - 9%
• Delta Corp - 8%
• Prataap
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Multibagger returns await you if you're willing to do the hard work.
I'm sharing a list of 20 mid, small and micro cap businesses which participated in Rising Stars 2024 conference by Arihant Capital and provided very strong growth guidance (>20-25%) over next few years based on
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Both HDFC and Kotak Bank are now available at 2.5x trailing price to book.
In my view, there are only 2 possibilities from here:
1. India will never become a 5 trillion economy
or
2. Both HDFC and Kotak will do very well for shareholders
Take your pick!
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A dumb investor buying Nifty ETF got 20% CAGR in last 4 years.
A smart investor buying high quality businesses like Asian Paints, Divis, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, etc. got 12% CAGR in last 4 years.
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30 Indian Small and Mid Cap Companies Recognized by Forbes as Asia's Best under a Billion 2023
1. Action Construction Equipment
2. AGI Infra
3. Apcotex Industries
4. Beta Drugs
5. BLS International
6. Caplin Point Labs
7. Century Plyboards
8. City Union Bank
9. Datamatics
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The year is 2023 and HDFC Bank is still asking customers to print a physical form and submit it at the nearest branch just to update an email ID.
Horrendous customer experience and tech infrastructure at least 6-8 years behind other banking peers.
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Big Update for Investors with Zerodha Accounts 🚨
To sell your shares, you no longer need to provide a Power of Attorney (PoA) or waste crucial time entering the CDSL TPIN/OTP.
Zerodha has introduced online Demat Debit Pledge Instruction (DDPI), which will replace the existing
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I have zero industry expertise in pharma, machine tools & diamond jewellery. I have also never done any plant visit!
Yet I could find and ride 10 baggers (from first buy price) like Beta Drugs, Macpower, Goldiam, etc.
Stock market is for everyone. If I can do it, so can you!
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I sold Polycab at 3000 last year thinking it was overvalued.
10/10 on a scale of dumbness to me 🤦🏻♂️
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I don't know whose portfolio is this, but I'd be worried as an investor if my portfolio was in red by 10% even after such a thunderous bull market.
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How I invest during market corrections
• Market corrects 5% - Invest 10% of cash
• Market corrects 10% - Invest 20% of cash
• Market corrects 15% - Invest 30% of cash
• Market corrects >20% - Invest 40% of cash
On June 4 election result day, Nifty was down 9% intraday, so I
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2023 has been a major milestone year for me where I crossed 1 crore of profit from the stock market since I started investing 10 years back in 2013.
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10k likes on a tweet within 10 hours!
I should retire from Twitter now!
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A Hindi speaking promoter telling you the same concept of Charlie Munger's
"Invert, always invert!"
Rather than dream of batting like Sachin Tendulkar, and wicketkeeping like Dhoni he'd rather focus on what he doesn't want to become!
Observed following mistakes of his peers
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In 2008, 1 lac crore of FII selling brought investors to their knees plunging Nifty by 65%.
FII selling in just 6 months of CY22 is ~3x of selling in 2008.
Nifty is only down 15% today & it is a massive testimony to the growth of 🇮🇳 economy and maturity of retail investors 👏
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Nifty and BSE Smallcap Ratio Chart
The last time it reached this level was in January 2008.
The rest is history.
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The 5 year stock price CAGR of HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank is just 6% while the 5 year profit CAGR is 20%
This has been the MOTHER of all deratings I've witnessed in the stock market.
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With Hindenburg research again making headlines, here's a documentary by Financial Times to recap the entire Adani Hindenburg saga from last year
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It has taken me 10 years in the market to finally find the holy grail of investing for me.
Investing in very high earnings growth businesses (>25-30%) with >20% ROCE, sustainable for min. 3-5 years, at reasonable valuation (around 1-1.5 PEG) is the holy grail!
Though I've had
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"(Zerodha's technical glitches) perception problem is mostly because of Twitter"
- Nithin Kamath
@Nithin0dha
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Why investors should not have highly concentrated portfolios!
Retail investors are only fooling themselves if they believe they have a magic formula to identify good businesses just by meeting company management or plant visit.
Brilliant articulation from
@Iamsamirarora
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A person with 5 crore net worth in fixed deposits will never be able to afford the lifestyle of a person with 5 crore net worth in equity.
Fixed deposits will only get you a fixed lifestyle.
Equity exposes you to the potential of a grand lifestyle.
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My Current Asset Allocation
1. Equity - 81% (PF 77%, MF 4%)
2. Real Estate - 4%
3. INVIT - 3%
4. NPS - 4% (75% E, 25% G)
5. EPF/PPF - 2%
6. Cash - 6%
Health insurance - 1cr
I have large aspirations and said this many times - if your dream is to be middle class, keep doing PPF!
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Do you know there is a crucial difference between
Interim Dividend
vs
Final Dividend
And this difference is just "1 word" but it affects you financially 💵
Thread below 🧵👇
(1/n)
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This chart ranging back 200 years tells you what a third class investment "Gold" is.
Indians are making debt comparable returns from Gold only because of INR depreciation.
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Trading takes your life, takes your blood.
It humiliates you, it humbles you.
If you use less emotions in investing, in trading don't use any emotion. It has to be emotionless.
But I still do it, do you know why? Because you get the highest ROE.
I don't allocate any capital
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Has the market bottomed? During any market correction, every investor just wants to know this.
In the spirit of Christmas, a thread where I share my top 5 market indicators which I personally use to try and answer this question.
Merry Christmas and Happy Reading!
(1/n)
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3 years of FD returns in 1 day!
This is the power of owning equities!
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Marcellus shared a performance update on all PMS schemes yesterday.
It is shocking and mind boggling to see every single PMS underperform the benchmark in both the short term (1 year) and medium term (3 years) time periods!
Sharing individual portfolios below 👇🏻
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I'm amazed at the amount of ridicule
#Infosys
and IT sector is getting from armchair analysts and punters.
Large cap IT services companies are some of India's best business models (asset light with very high free cash flows) and an export play on India's economy which gives you
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Seems like Cred changed their algo.
Paid a credit card bill of ₹2500 today and won ₹50 🤣
Made a credit card bill payment of 87,000 and received a maha cashback of ₹1 from Cred.
Time to stop sharing data with Cred and pay directly from bank portal.
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सरफ़रोशी की तमन्ना अब हमारे दिल में है,
देखना है जोर कितना बाजू-ए-कातिल में है!
A very rare case of shareholder activism in India where majority mutual fund houses are sitting mum.
Quantum Mutual Fund has written a scathing 8 page letter to ICICI Bank and ICICI Securities,
ICICI Securities - Final Voting Results 🚨
The delisting resolution has been passed by 71.8% (min. 66.7% required).
But there is a staggering difference in voting behavior between retail shareholders and institutions.
67% of retail votes were against this resolution where as
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Kotak Mahindra Bank is now trading at it's lowest price to book valuation in the last 10 years.
From 6x to 3x P/B in just 5 years, a stunning 50% valuation derating by Mr. Market.
However, both earnings and book value have compounded at more than 15% in the past 5 years.
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This is the simplest and most stress-free way I've ever beaten Nifty!
I bought Nifty200 Momentum30 ETF in June 2022. Since then
Nifty: 50% ⬆️
ETF: 100% ⬆️
Is it possible to beat Nifty50 over a 10-15 year period without spending hundreds of hours researching on stocks or mutual funds to invest in?
A passive ETF which beats Nifty and has low underperformance during corrections.
A thread with analysis 🧵👇🏻
(1/n)
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Mr. Neil Borate, just because someone has a research paper on a subject it doesn't mean that person is correct.
Till 1920s-1930s, doctors and physicians promoted cigarette smoking in the US saying it could cure irritated throats.
Anyway, let's come to the maths on retirement
Ravi Saraogi has the only published research paper in this domain in India. Before you critise, please go through the rigour with which he's done the math. He's also a practicing SEBI RIA. Not a social media influencer.
@ravisaraogi
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Why you should achieve financial independence as early on in life as possible!
Do the 9 to 5 routine if you WANT to, not because you NEED to!
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🇮🇳 Nifty last 25 years (1997-2022*)
Number of Bear Markets = 8
Average drawdown % = -38.5%
Average bear market duration = 246 days (8 m)
Key takeaway - Bear markets occur every ~3 years and take on average 8 months to bottom
3/n
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ICICI Securities - Final Voting Results 🚨
The delisting resolution has been passed by 71.8% (min. 66.7% required).
But there is a staggering difference in voting behavior between retail shareholders and institutions.
67% of retail votes were against this resolution where as
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In just 9 months, 20 lakhs of profit has become 50 lakhs of profit in these 2 stocks.
Not much intelligence, just patience and power of bull markets 🔥
PS: Beta Drugs investment / avg price is different because I sold minor quantity at 1500 and bought again at 1170
I have zero industry expertise in pharma, machine tools & diamond jewellery. I have also never done any plant visit!
Yet I could find and ride 10 baggers (from first buy price) like Beta Drugs, Macpower, Goldiam, etc.
Stock market is for everyone. If I can do it, so can you!
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I did an analysis of my top selling mistakes in the last 3 years.
I only booked 12 lakhs of profit in these 10 stocks, but
you won't believe I missed out more than 1 crore of profits🤦♂️
And these are just the top 10 selling mistakes!
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Networth hit a major milestone this year crossing 25 years of living expenses, through 11 disciplined years of aggressive savings and investing.
Financial well-being brings huge peace of mind in your day to day life.
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I desperately wish there is a transfer of power in 2024 so these conditionally bullish Indians sell all their equity holdings and genuine long term investors can reap the rewards of India's multi decade growth story!
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Brightcom Group - A stock with probably the most red flags I've ever seen in my investing journey, has been suspended for trading by SEBI from June 14.
Here's CNBC TV18 expert Shankar Sharma explaining his rationale for investing in BCG from Jan 2022.
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Nifty is at 25,000 but HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank are still hovering at 12,000 Nifty levels.
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Note on Mega Multibaggers 📝
Buy and hold investors love talking about potential 100x multibaggers which can forever change your life.
But the same investors have near zero chance of predicting whether any stock will even become a 10-20x, forget about a 100x.
Why?
Stocks do
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This Holi, let's share the greenest stocks in our portfolio 💚
May this greenery further multiply for you and me.
Happy Holi 🎨
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There are very few moments in life which change our life forever, this is one of them.
Blessed to become a father and grateful to god for the greatest gift of life.
A whirlwind last 15 days....phew.
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30 years data on what happens after Nifty crosses 80 RSI on monthly timeframe?
During the mega bull run of 2003-2007, Nifty corrected between 15-40% multiple times whenever markets got overheated.
Dare I say, this time it's different 🤡
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I had the exact issue with
@_groww
5 years back when I invested the day before Nirmala Sitharaman's announcement of corporate tax rate cuts.
Markets rallied 5-7% next day and I got the inflated NAV.
I complained and after a few days I got a refund of the NAV difference.
On 4th June 2024, the financial system FAILED India's mutual fund investors. How?
1) Generally if you place MF order and transfer funds before cut-off (2.30 pm via broker), you get same day NAV.
2) On the day this mattered MOST (Nifty 6% down), the pipes broke! Thousands of
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20 Stock Ideas from Investing Accelerator Summit 2023
1. Roto Pumps
2. LG Balakrishnan Bros
3. Aarti Pharma Labs
4. Greenply
5. Sukhjit Starch
6. HFCL
7. Senco Gold
8. Aavas Financier
9. Rallis India
10. 3B BlackBio (erst. Kilpest)
11. Maruti Suzuki
12. REC
13. Samman Capital
20-20 Virtual Investing Accelerator Summit is here🤩
Join us as we host 20 Smartest advisors and Investors to present their understanding of 1 Business in 20 minutes!
Learn about 20 Business in 1 DAY
Date: 17th Dec, Sunday
Register NOW👇
🔗:
🚀🚀🚀
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Sometimes living in India feels like a dream.
You can get a 55 inch 4K Google TV for just ₹23K (sub $300).
But the dream gets shattered when I think about buying any high end cars 🙊
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Where are the retail investors, mutual fund SIPs and domestic institutions?
What happened to buy on dips philosophy?
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A few years back I used to only pay for the internet.
Now I pay for almost everything on the internet!
1. Apple iCloud
2. Twitter
3. Netflix
4. Amazon Prime
5. Jio Cinema
6. Zomato Gold
7. Swiggy One
8. YouTube premium
9. Moneycontrol Pro
10. Urban Company Plus
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Mohnish Pabrai became an investor only after he made a million dollars from his business.
So it's foolish to dream of making crores of money from the stock market if you just come with a few thousand ₹.
PS: There is only 1 Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in 140 crore Indians
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I love dividend compounders.
Bought Swaraj Engines at ₹1320 last year, gave a ₹80 dividend last year and announced ₹92 dividend today.
Some stocks are like high yielding bonds with capital appreciation.
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I see so many people tweeting "bear market, bear market, bear market"!
Trust me, if we are going to have a bear market, then you've just seen the first scene of a 3 hour long horror movie!
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A huge update to Marcellus Consistent Compounders Portfolio, they have exited Kotak Bank after ~5 years of near zero returns.
Curiously, they haven't provided any rationale for the exit and it's still present in their Kings of Capital PF.
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Model Portfolio for 2024
1. Bharat Dynamics - 9%
2. Eicher Motors - 8%
3. GAIL - 8%
4. Syrma SGS - 8%
5. Cera Sanitaryware - 7%
6. IRCON - 7%
7. SBI - 7%
8. Crompton Consumer - 6%
9. Lemon Tree Hotels - 6%
10. Ami Organics - 5%
11. Faze Three - 5%
12. Thangamayil Jewellery - 5%
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