Associate Dir Inst. for Future Conflict:
@AF_Academy
. Author: Last Refuge. New book: in-progress. PhD
@princeton
Prev
@buzzfeed
& UN Yemen Panel. Personal Views
I don't know of any seasoned Yemen observer who thinks a ceasefire in Gaza will lead to a halt in Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis are using the situation in Gaza to advance their own domestic and regional goals.
The Houthis can’t be deterred because they want this conflict, for both regional and domestic reasons, and it is very, very hard to degrade them to the point that they can’t attack commercial shipping. So, the US is now in an open ended conflict with no clear off-ramp.
BREAKING:
#Italy
’s daily death rate has skyrocketed to a new, global record high of 969 dead in a single day. The
#Coronavirus
has killed 9,134 people since the crisis began.
US discussing sanctioning Russian Central Bank. “Targeting the central bank could lead to domestic turmoil in Russia, such as by triggering a bank run, cratering the ruble, and causing panic among Russian businesses.”
Thread: A few things to keep in mind as the US watches to see if, when, and how the Houthis respond to last night's strikes. First, the Houthis need and, in many ways, want this war for reasons that have nothing to do with Gaza.
In Houthi thinking they have A.) taken down Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh (their initial enemy) B.) defeated Saudi Arabia and C.) are now in a war with the US. Local, regional, international. This is how they see the march of history.
The U.S. simply does not have good options in Yemen. Option 1: Do nothing. Result: Houthis continue to attack commercial shipping.
Option 2: Limited airstrikes. Result: risk a spiraling conflict and Houthis likely to continue attacking commercial shipping.
One of the mistakes the US made when it decided to launch attacks on the Houthis was that it believed if it hit the Houthis hard enough the group would back down. That was a mistake of analysis. 1/2
A lot of what is happening today reminds me of the build-up to Saudi Arabia going into Yemen to fight the Houthis in 2015. Saudi Arabia thought the air war would last "six weeks." It is 2024 and the war is still ongoing.
This is ridiculous. Colin Kahl is incredibly smart, thoughtful, and a kind person to boot. He is exactly the type of person Americans should want to serve.
There will inevitably be a lot of people chiming in about the Houthis and Yemen in the coming hours and days. These are some of the people I respect and admire and learn from even when I don't agree with everything they say:
@BashaReport
&
@Ndawsari
&
@thomasjuneau
1/2
1. A not so short thread on tonight's news on Yemen from Riyadh. There is a lot to parse, but Hadi removed Vice President Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar and then transferred the power of the presidency to an 8-man presidential council.
Re-upping my piece from Tuesday, before tonight's strikes on Yemen, which explains why (both for regional and domestic reasons) the Houthis were baiting the US and what happens if the strikes don't work.
Sound familiar? --> "In the critical early days of the outbreak, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and other top officials sought to down play the threat, creating confusion and a false sense of security that allowed the virus to spread."
This has been happening for quite some time, the
@washingtonpost
has reported on it. I find it hard to believe US officials didn't know about this prior to the CNN story
Steve Coll is working on a new book on Afghanistan "in which he chronicles the restoration of Taliban rule and the final collapse of American ambition in Afghanistan."
Trump and advisers calculated that he shouldn’t speak to the nation because he had nothing to say, no tangible policy or action to announce, nor did he feel an urgent motivation to try to bring people together. So he let his tweets speak for themselves.
Precious time wasted: "The scientists said they believe that they will find evidence that the virus was infecting people even earlier, and that they could have alerted authorities sooner if they had been allowed to test."
For
@lawfareblog
I attempt to untangle what is happening in Yemen. Hint: what we call the war in Yemen is actually three separate but overlapping conflicts.
I would argue it is likely to make the Houthis more aggressive. So if air strikes are the answer tonight, what is the answer tomorrow and going forward?
I do wonder what the results would be if the US investigated every drone strike as carefully and as thoroughly as it did the August 29 strike in Kabul. I suspect we might start talking about these strikes differently.
I would argue that the US - Rep or Dem admins - has never had a Yemen policy. The US has had a Saudi policy, an Iran policy, and a CT policy but never a Yemen one - which means the US sees Yemen only through those other areas of interest.
Some things missing from senior Obama officials’ Statement calling for halting U.S. support for
#YemenWar
?
"Obama Officials’ Incomplete Reckoning with Failure on Yemen"
By
@sarahleah1
(
@hrw
) via
@just_security
"American intelligence agencies have concluded that the Chinese government itself does not know the extent of the virus and is as blind as the rest of the world."
BREAKING: A Pentagon review concludes that the U.S. drone strike that killed innocent Kabul civilians and children in the final days of the Afghanistan war was not caused by misconduct or negligence, and doesn't recommend disciplinary action,
@AP
learns.
We are deeply saddened that faculty member Professor Stephen Schwartz passed away due to a COVID-19 infection.
He has left a lasting imprint on our department, our university, and the broader scientific community and will be greatly missed.
The war with Saudi and the UAE was coming to an end, which wasn't good for the Houthis. So the group took advantage of the situation in Gaza to advance their own domestic and regional priorities.
One of the best experts in the US on Yemen,
@gregorydjohnsen
joins us as well. Look out for more from him on one of the most important issues in the Middle East today. 3/4
Just a note, it is not accurate to say that the UAE "withdrew" from Yemen. The UAE significantly reduced its forces starting in mid-2019, but there are still UAE soldiers on the ground in Yemen.
There are a lot of people and decisions at fault for what is happening with Covid-19 across the southern and western US, but the decision to make wearing a mask a political statement is surely at the top of the list.
With the news that the UAE is asking to US to re-list the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, a (maybe not so) short thread on how US policy toward Yemen, over the past three administrations, has been the worst of all possible worlds.
I was very sad to see that
@MaadAlzekri
- the first Yemeni to win a Pulitzer Prize - was unable to attend the award ceremony in NY because his visa was denied.
The Houthis are betting that expanding the war, instead of ending it, will eventually allow them to gain popular support and seize at least one of these three governorates.
In the Yemen Panel of Experts report released in 2018 we wrote that Mohammed Ali al-Houthi "met the designation criteria" to be sanctioned by the UN Security Council. In other words, he is someone who has committed documented violations and crimes.
If you are wondering how the most powerful country in the world got into such a
#Coronavirus
mess, well there’s a reason. Michael Lewis explains why government agencies matter in times like these. Good book” The Fifth Risk (9781324002642):”
The Houthis wanted this war. In many ways the Houthis baited the US into a conflict because war is good for the Houthis. The group believes that only war will allow it to achieve its domestic and regional goals.
Yemen has basically two exports: oil and gas. The vast majority of oil and gas fields are located in the governorates of Marib, Shabwa, and Hadramawt. None of which the Houthis control.
Italy didn't learn from China, New York didn't learn from Italy, Texas, Florida, and Arizona haven't learned from NYC. This is all so sad and sadly too predictable.
2. Economically: If all wars were to cease in Yemen today, the Houthis would be unlikely to survive, largely because they simply do not have an economic base to support the population in the north.
I'm late to this but this
@bentaub91
profile of
@SkinnerPm
is an incredible piece of writing. One of the best pieces I've read about where the US is as a country after 9/11:
22 years ago today, President Bush signed into law the Authorization for Use of Military Force. Even as it’s been relied upon by successive administrations to use force in contexts and against groups increasingly far removed from 9/11, the
#AUMF
has never been amended or updated.
The Houthis owe Iran a lot, and this helps further deepen their relationship. Second, and I would argue more importantly, war with the US is good for the Houthis domestically.
I continue to wonder what the plan for the US and UK is after tonight. I can't imagine any of the planners believe these strikes will either prevent or deter the Houthis from launching more attacks on commercial shipping.
On the regional front, this gives Iran some plausible deniability. Iran can uses the Houthis to escalate, while maintaining publicly that the Houthis are independent actors.
If one round of strikes aren't enough to deter the Houthis and two aren't enough, exactly how many will be needed? I think there is a lot of room for slippage here and mission creep, particularly if, instead of pulling back, the Houthis try to expand their attacks.
It is possible to think keeping US troops in Syria to counter Iran was a bad idea and believe it is also a mistake to pull them so quickly with seemingly little thought as to what comes next
Trump, who discussed pulling the US from NATO takes credit for NATO’s existence in a new statement. Trump, who threatened to withhold weapons funding from Ukraine to get dirt on Biden, takes credit for Ukrainian weapons in same statement.
This is extremely important at the moment because as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have drastically reduced strikes, the Houthis local rivals (particularly some tribal shaykhs and the GPC) have begun to increase their criticism.
Option 4: Back anti-Houthi forces. Result: get in bed with a host of problematic figures with questionable records some of whom hate one another more than they do the Houthis. Houthis likely continue to attack commercial shipping.
Option 5: Hit Iran, the Houthis' backer and perhaps the only country that can exercise influence. Result: risk a broader, regional war in the Middle East.
Perhaps there are other options, but these are the ones that stand out to me, and none of them are great.
I don't feel like it has registered but there have been a number of articles lately highlighting UAE misdeeds. From
@AramRoston
's piece on mercenary hit squads in Yemen
For those saying the US just needs to make the Houthis pay remember this is a group that has been at near constant war for the past two decades and is capable of absorbing more pain (see the Saudi/UAE air war) than the US is likely to inflict
My concern with the current Biden admin approach in Yemen is that there appears to be a fundamental misunderstanding of what is happening on the ground.
@shashj
I think the question becomes: if they are futile or if the Houthis feel emboldened then does the US escalate? And if so, how much? Only air strikes, what if ground troops are needed? It is much easier to begin a war than it is to end one.
I just heard
@Ndawsari
is going to be on the PBS Newshour this evening. If you want to know what has happened in Yemen and what is likely coming next, you should tune in to listen to her.
Wow --> this is not good, Ali Soufan is an American hero. "Cybersecurity experts hired by Soufan traced at least part of the campaign to an official in the Saudi government."
There is a lot of optimism on my timeline regarding Yemen today. I wish I could share it, but the past 7 years have shown that agreements are the easy part in Yemen - implementation and follow through are much more difficult.