Erik Kannike
@erikkannike
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@WarStudies alumni. Now building the future of intelligence as CSO of @SensusQ . DM's open.
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Pinned Tweet
Had the pleasure of talking to
@mattburgess1
at
@WIRED
about new expansive Russian GPS jamming efforts behind their own lines and what the strategic reasonings behind it might be. Read the article below:
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Very concerning - first time ever I have seen GPS jamming happening over Taiwan. Has been going on for 3 straight days now [since 21.04.23].
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This is concerning. Even more intensive GPS jamming by Russia. Now expanding in both Western border area, Kaliningrad and also next to Finland. [13.12.2022 data]
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Increased GPS interference in the Baltic States, first time seen. Previously only around Kaliningrad coast.
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Russian GPS jamming in and around Estonia having an increasing impact. For two days in a row planes are unable to land at the second biggest city in Estonia due to GPS jamming. Pretty disturbing.
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Putting together many puzzle pieces, it appears that at least one culprit behind the recent wave of GPS jamming from Kaliningrad is a secretive Russian EW complex called Tobol (14Ts227). There are less than 10 locations in Russia where Tobol is located, and one is in Kaliningrad.
I found the location of the Baltic Jammer causing flights to lose position, again.
Kaliningrad, Poland (or Denmark). Pick your suspect.
With a new, larger dataset and more refined method I have replicated my results from yesterday.
Data only from when jammer has been active.
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Follow-up on Baltic GPS jamming - now all around the border with Russia/Latvia in Pskov Oblast. [29.05]. First time such extensive jamming seen near the border and previous spillover almost definitely from there.
A show of force or real deterrent against drone strikes?
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The same ship - RU Navy ship Sibiryakov that was over the NS2 pipeline was also over the Balticconnector.
5/16 The second vessel, the Russian Navy ship Sibiryakov, arrived at the same position on June 14, staying in the area northeast of Bornholm for almost 24 hours. No intercepted radio communication for 15 hours during the night. Three times it conducted slow-speed activity.
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New Russian "black" Shahed models use a carbon fiber composite sandwich frame instead of the Iranian "white" Shaheds. Prorably aimed at becoming lighter and increasing range.
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Eesti teadusrahastus
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@oryxspioenkop
must be pros; they kept the laser beam off the heli until the last moment, didn't trigger any warnings
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Time for a GPS Jamming activity update. [10.01.23]
New areas of concern:
1) Gigantic block of jamming in the Black Sea - extending from Turkey to coasts of Bulgaria and Romania.
2) Russian GPS jamming extending into Kazakhstan. Purpose unclear, started on 04.01.2023.
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Significant increase in Russian GPS jamming activities around the western border area [07.12.22 data]
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Fun fact - a single factory in Tallinn, Estonia produced more artillery shells a day in 1917 (6000) than the entire EU is able to produce in 2023 (1700)
Austria-Hungary in 1916 produced 18 times, tsarist Russia 80 times and imperial Germany 129 times as many artillery shells as the entire EU can produce in 2023 (650,000). Even after completing a planned 500% increase by 2028 the US will only be at 1/12th of peak Habsburg output.
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one of my favourite self-owns this year: when Russia tried to prove the effectiveness of their ballistic missiles by showing how good they are at war crimes
Yesterday, Armenia's PM Nikol Pashinyan claimed that the Russian Iskander missile systems used by the Armenian army were ineffective during the 2020 Karabakh war.
Russia's Ministry of Defense retorted with footage of Iskander use in Syria — which revealed a hospital attack.
1/
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Updated map of even more extensive GPS jamming by Russia [17.12.22 data]. New areas include the border with Belarus, last jammed right before the start of the war. Extended jamming next to Finland, Lithuanian and Latvian border.
But how is Russia achieving this? A 🧵1/
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200k eurot Maltal (100m2) vs Tallinnas (58m2). Pakkuge kumb on kumb?
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The system, ostensibly designed to protect satellites of the Russian Federation has also been revealed to have an offensive capability to jam and disrupt signals, especially GPS signals. US reports indicate this system was used to disrupt Starlink in UKR by jamming the timing GPS
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Fascinating analysis on the Russian ZALA Group's newest reconnaissance UAVs by our
@SensusQ
intelligence cell. Includes information on ZALA Group's owners family living in London and working at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR).....
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Tried to map the web of parties involved around the NewNew Polar Bear. A lot of weirdness going on - Torgmoll Russia, NewNew, Goodstuff OOO and Intouch Logistics all share a single phone number and all deal with transport to/from China.
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The Kaliningrad military unit 92626 located in Pionersky, operating the Tobol system in Kaliningrad is therefore a prime suspect
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Lessons in psyops:
Telegram users in Belgorod oblast are getting calls to their numbers. Upon picking up the phone a pre-recorded female voice informs them of a mandatory evacuation due to attacks by ZSU.
Personally I would have left out the air raid siren at the end.
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@shashj
Right so as expected the ownership chain is murky. As I understand although the ship is registered under XinXin Shipping in China. That is owned and operated as part of Torgmoll Russia ( - only website working, has been taken down).
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Very little is known about the capabilities, but they are often co-located alongside RU satellite tracking facilities, and it appears the Tobol system is capable of uplink jamming i.e disrupting and jamming the satellite itself, rather than just the downlink on the ground.
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RU forces reporting that troops in Izyum are possibly already "operationally encircled"
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Using the
@SensusQ
software to visualise all known military units in Kaliningrad, then building up unit profiles and weapons/signal systems based on open sources allowed me to quickly arrive at this conclusion :)
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ta läheb Kanadasse... et kohtuda eestlastega... kes töötavad kõik Tallinnas...
Eesti on nüüdsest Euroopa Florida confirmed 🤡🤡🤡
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@RasmusOthar
@sentdefender
as the raw data source ADS-B signals of commercial planes are taken and the level of interference reported is calculated for each specific region. not it's not only GPS, but any navigation source used (glonass, galileo etc)
@lemonodor
can probably elaborate/correct/go deeper
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tallinn is the gay capital of scandinavia? that's the first i've heard of this
Pro-Kremlin TV insists that the Soviet occupation of Estonia never happened.
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for context - last weeks data:
Significant increase in Russian GPS jamming activities around the western border area [07.12.22 data]
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praeguste sündmustega me nagu tahame, et järgmise Borati filmi taustmaa oleks Eesti
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Iranian ammo manufactured in 2022 showing up in Ukrainian hands. Possible capture from Russian stocks or transfer from some third party (Georgia?). Very odd in any case.
#Ukraine
: It appears that the Ukrainian army started to use Iranian-made artillery ammunition - in a video from Ukraine we identified Iranian 🇮🇷 OF-462 122mm projectiles.
Though some Iranian weapons were already observed, this case is worth paying attention and we will tell why:
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Potential reason - drone attack near Estonian border on a Russian oil refinery. RU has almost always set up GPS jamming EW systems after such attacks.
Local Russian authorities report that two drones attacked a Transnaft oil facility in Litvinovo, Pskov oblast.
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oh so this is how all those soldiers accidentally ended up in Ukraine
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never letting anyone from the blue countries into my home
This will be hotly debated! Do shoes have to be removed in the home? Based on my time living in Germany, US and Australia I’d say these three countries are correctly displayed on the map. Is your country correct? Source:
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Palun ärme tee seda Eestis. Ma olen siiani välismaal elades uhke olnud, et kodumaal vähemalt austatakse privaatsusvajadust ja sunnita peale loomu poolest ebaturvalist disaini.
Fundamentaalne vabadus suhelda jälgimatult peaks olema püha.
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Looking at Russian tanks that have been left behind reveals ERA blocks... with the explosives having been stolen/looted/forgotten beforehand. Making the tank basically unprotected. Note the single lonely explosive with screwdriver pry marks by someone in the rightmost slot lol
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kõige naljakam on see, et kogu Fox Newsi hüsteeria Taylor Swiftist kui psyopist/NATO assetist algas sellest kui nad avastasid mingi suvalise stratkom loengu Tallinnas, CCDCOEs, kus keegi tõi TS'i lihtsalt hea näitena välja
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The jammer affecting Estonia now also confirmed by data to be Russian
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.
This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.
Further, a drone-based method supports it.🧵
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:)
@BadBalticTakes
This is Sulev Kannike, our Ambassador to NATO when Estonia joined in 2004, a member of Euromais, with NATO badge in 1982
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incredibly frustrating. the level of European 155mm production is frankly speaking pathetic and sabotaging an attempt at increasing it is so morally bankrupt
Germany’s city of Troisdorf seems to deliberately sabotage Germany’s promise to keep up production of ammunition. According to the statement of Troisdorf mayor’s (in comments), they undermined the arms producer's business decision to prevent further production of ammunition:
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@shashj
Torgmoll/XinXin/NewNew were granted exclusive right by Rosatom for shipping through Arctic lanes and also had the military-linked Rosatom Sevmorput escort it. In most places NewNew is registered with Torgmoll RU emails/phone numbers
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how much crack are they smoking at the Russian Foreign Ministry?
❗The people of
#Tallinn
enthusiastically welcomed the Red Army troops.
#USSR
Soldiers USSR fought side by side with valiant Estonian troops to clear the capital and a large part of the republic from the Nazi occupiers. 🔗
#LiberationOfTallin
#WWII
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@wartranslated
They're not calling to take off shoulder straps, it's to take off his general rank
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Ben Norton is a dumbass.
Estonia is a NATO colony that, since the overthrow of the USSR and restoration of capitalism, has become a hub for far-right groups that are trying to rewrite the history of the Holocaust
Estonia has repeatedly honored Nazi collaborators as heroes
Its intel agencies are bogus
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Russia net zero 2030? :)
An explosion in an oil depot near Vyborg, Leningrad Region, Russia, occurred last night. Several videos and pictures document the event. The Russian regime authorities claim that it was only “pyrotechnics”. Yeah, right.
Vyborg is more than 960 km (600 miles) from the Ukrainian
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Parimad palad Talibani PR-sõnumitest:
"Seekord ei saa naised peksa kui üksi kodust väljas käivad" ja "Veits võite õppida ka"
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Very interesting map from my Finnair flight showing satellite internet disruption zones. Seems to overlap a lot with the GPS jamming maps of
@lemonodor
!
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Meenutab Türgi-eestlaste kirjaviisi - puhas eesti keel, aga kirjutatud Türgi ortograafiat kasutades. Kõik ju käinud ainult Türgi koolis :)
A random example of 🇪🇪Estonian language from year 1605:
"Kuÿ nüith v̈x Inimene Te pæl on , sÿß on tæmal paliu waiwa , eth tæma paliu willetzust piddab nægkema , suhrest tuischkußest Ilmast , suhrest Saost ninck wichmast , Pallawast ninck Külmast ." – Georg Müller, 1605
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Russia started heavily investing in EW (electronic warfare) modernisation in 2009 and has since 2013 taken systems into service. Unlike RU cyber capabilities, which were untested and proved a disappointment, Russian EW capabilities have been extensively battle-tested in Syria. 2/
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nõme on näha Lihula sündmuste kajastuses igal pool "kaitseliidust ja relvaloaga" fraase.
inimene oli 7 aastat tagasi kaitseliidus. pole kuidagi seotud praegusega. KL maine ülesehitamisel on kõvasti vaeva nähtud, miks seda ilmaasjata välja tuua?
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Some information here as well:
Although much is to be determined, in mid-Sep
@gapinskimj
wrote in our Kaliningrad Military Digest about the Russian Sibiryakov hydrographic survey vessel's movements near the Balticconnector. We're not pointing fingers, but it's highly likely that Russians surveyed the pipe.
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cc for interest:
@Osinttechnical
@Osinttechnical
@The_Lookout_N
@Archer83Able
@balticjam
@DanKaszeta
@AbraxasSpa
@mattburgess1
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Nobody:
Proto-Uralic people migrating to Estonia and deciding not be normal and instead use 14 noun cases in their language:
CASES!!!!! OMG CASES!!!!! THERE ARE CASES!!! MORE CASES!!!! CASES ARE GOING UP!!!!!!!! CASESESESESESES!!!! CASES WENT UP!!!!! OMG!!!!!! THERES MORE CASES!!!!!!!! CASES!!!!!!!!!!! CASES INCREASED!!! THERE ARE CASES!!!! CASES CASES CASES—WOW CASES WENT UP!!!!!SCARY CASES! WOW
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@dieworkwear
your ability to reach every niche of twitters algorithm is unparalleled, even in my feed of nuclear strategy you sometimes show up to educate about trouser lengths
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Disgusting
Soviet Victory flag has been raised over Enerhodar Administration HQ.
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Russian EW systems include both highly-mobile, tactical systems such as the R-330h Zhitel ranging up to 300km and used near battlefields and larger wide-area systems capable of covering 1000km+ like the Borisoglebsk-2. 3/
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Reminder that an explosive-laden drone was already found near the Nord Stream pipeline in 2015 (!)
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@lauraphylmills
@hrw
Wait so let me get this right - Russia invades and occupies a part of Ukraine, kicking out civil servants and infrastructure making it hard for pensioners to get access to Ukrainian benefits.
And this is somehow the fault of Ukraine?
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Russian soldiers openly rioting - watch this space
Mobik riot in Kazan: nearly 2000 mobiks came out to express their outrage and shout curse words at the drunk General of the regiment. According to messages, mobiks had no essentials provided to them, and no one seems to be bothered to resolve their issues.
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VF on kahekordistanud dessantlaevade arvu Läänemerel, Rootsi viis Gotlandi saare häiretasemele, US-VF läbirääkimised kukkusid läbi ja Eesti meedias... pole piiksugi?
Kas Repinski taksosõit on tõesti olulisem....
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@shashj
If I'm not mistaken the Chinese owner of the ship is actually a wholly owned subsidiary of a Russian company
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It consists of nine vehicles based on MT-LBu tracked APCs - 1x control post and 8x various EW Jamming stations. A single B2 net can jam an area of approximately 900 km2. Knowing that Russia has taken delivery of 20+ systems, they could at the very least cover 18,000 km2 5/
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In the city of Soledar, currently at the center of fighting, you could previously stay at an underground hotel in a salt mine. Or play soccer in a salt mine. Or pray in an underground chapel. The possibilities are endless:
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Mis uudis see on? 😀 Avaldame nüüd lihtsalt otse Kremli pressiteateid?
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However, even Russian abilities previously demonstrated in Ukraine and Syria have been described as “electronic warfare capability at a tactical level that we absolutely don’t have,” by
@general_ben
, former commanding general for United States Army Europe. /END THREAD
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Unise peaga lugesin seda pealkirja ja imestasin, et 141 000 eurose kosmoseprogrammiga tahab EKRE viia elu planeet Marsile.
Siis kahjuks ärkasin ja tuli meelde kus riigis ma elan.
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need taksojuhid kes võtavad su tellimuse vastu, aga tegelt samal ajal timmivad teises äpis teist tellimust ajavad ikka marukettasse
pole okei, kui takso on kümme minutit "1 min kaugusel"
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Which is well in reach of what we’re seeing in Russia today. Disclaimer that this is analysis only based on what we currently know about RU EW capabilities. [Image source by Dr. Thomas Withington, Armada International] 5/
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miks pole teistel veebilehtedel aardeid nagu oli mängukoopas?
ntx lehel võiks leida aarde, mis lubab sõlmida 2019 aasta hindadega fikseeritud elektrilepingu
või leiad aarde ja saad tasuta paki küünlaid
possibilities are endless
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The Latvian Armed Forces lost a contact with a drone which landed with high probability in the territory of the Russian Federation:
Sakari ar lidaparātu pārtrūka Latvijas teritorijā, un tā potenciālo nosēšanās vietu noteica iepriekš uzņemtā lidojuma trajektorija un vēja virziens. Ir liela varbūtība, ka novērošanas lidaparāts nosēdās Krievijas teritorijā. 2/3
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Borisoglebsk-2 is the system which I suspect is being used for jamming at tactical locations in the homeland. The exact capabilities are hard to pin down, but their role was confirmed in 2015 to be “deployed along the Russian borders "from Kaliningrad to Blagoveshchensk". 4/
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@ProfKochenov
@unitartu
@SarahGanty
@YJILonline
why exactly should a university "stand by" someone who has met with RU intel service handlers, taken their money and then voluntarily submitted a resignation after being caught?
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@The_Lookout_N
for sure - they're jamming 16 regions already in Russia. seems to be standard procedure now to protect higher value targets
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Flights now suspended to Tartu as a result of GPS jamming. Concrete economic damage from Electronic Warfare.
We're suspending our flights to Tartu from 29 April until May 31. The approach methods currently used at Tartu Airport are based on a GPS signal and GPS interference in the area affects the usability of this method. Read more:
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why does the Javelin main charge explosive warhead look like a bath bomb from Lush...
Somehow LLNL figured out how to make vaporwave looking pressed explosives LOL (Javelin main charge pictured), it's called LX-14 and it is SPICY.
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@terrornerds
that moment when you go to the hotel bar and completely conspicuous groups of dudes like this are sitting there
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keskerakonna lugu on nagu keskmise banaanivabariigi ajalugu:
1) domineerib populistlik suur juht
2) suur juht jääb vanaks ja sureb
3) ??? (äkki süsteem püsib)
4) verine kodusõda
5) hääbumine
Keskerakond võtab sotsiaaldemokraadid Rahvaliidult tagasi?
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miks Ben & Jerry's meie julgeolekut õõnestab...
You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war.
We call on President Biden to de-escalate tensions and work for peace rather than prepare for war.
Sending thousands more US troops to Europe in response to Russia’s threats against Ukraine only fans the flame of war.
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Strong dose of reality. Russia has built a warchest for 10+ years and still has a lot of breathing room.
Russia external debt has been falling steadily and reached $326.6bn in December 2023, compared with $322.3bn in the previous quarter and $383.6bn at the end of 2022. It could pay the entire amount off tomorrow – in cash.
The Kremlin has been paying off its external debt. Low
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kolmas laine on jõudnud 🇬🇧,🇮🇱 jpt-ni.
praegu on see hetk, kus Eestis peaks ropp töö käima, et seekord ei kaoks arusaam nakkusahelatest ülekoormuse tõttu. kas seda tehakse?
aeg valmistuda on enne kriisi, mitte selle ajal
Watching—new
#LambdaVariant
now found in 30 countries including 🇬🇧. “The Lambda originated from Peru, with the highest mortality rate in the world.” Some scientists are worried lambda may be “more infectious than Delta variant”. Still watching.
#COVID19
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RU FSB warns about "border provocation" near the borders of the Baltic states. prorbaly typical FSB psyop but something to keep an eye on anyway
❗️UWAGA ❗️możliwe rosyjskie prowokacje
Rosyjska FSB, odpowiedzialna za działania agresywne przeciwko Zachodowi, „spodziewa się prowokacji granicznych” na granicy z Polską i krajami bałtyckimi.
Na ogół takie publikacje oznaczają, że Rosja sama planuje działania eskalacyjne.
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On March 6th 2022 planes started having GPS issues and even caused some landings to be cancelled around the Gulf of Finland. For context - here is the massive GPS jamming as seen earlier in the day
Yles data avslöjar: Flygtrafiken i Finland utsattes för störningar – spåren leder till Ryssland #
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@LivFaustDieJung
on the other hand the Russians have more troops in total now than they did during the start of the war, and more troops inside Ukraine as well. war industry is also already in high gear. they could redirect a sizable portion of power away from UA if needed
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the President of Transnistria also looks like a parody of Brezhnev based on the amount of medals
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Russian nuclear reactor powered ship Sevmorput is on fire. Other ships being evacuated from nearby. Keep your eye on this.
@secretsqrl123
It seems indeed they are towing the Sibir away from the Sevmorput…presumably to save it.
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