Eric Falkenstein
@egfalken
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Christian, libertarian, econ PhD. Interests: Avalanche, low vol investing, amateur wrestling, jiu-jitsu.
Minneapolis, MN
Joined July 2009
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緑の魔女編
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THE LAST TIME IS NOW
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Someone sold 24k gold futures contracts today, pushing the price down by $100 in a couple of minutes.
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A girl is bitten by a snake, air transported to a hospital and released after 24 hours. Her bill was $55k for the helicopter and $68k for the antivenom. The antivenom sells in Mexico for $800.
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Revolver wrote about Ray Epps, a key instigator of the Jan 6 Capitol riot. Google search for it generates a debunking page, DuckDuck generates the actual Revolver article. It's a conspiracy by 'the good guys', why Google search makes it hard to find.
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The old argument for dysfunctional schools was a lack of funding. Chicago spends $30k per student, 11% of Black students read at grade level, and 100% of the teachers are rated excellent or proficient. Money will not fix this.
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I just paid
@robinhanson
$1k per our Feb 20 covid bet. I gave him 10-1 on US covid deaths <250k by eoy 2021, so he beat it handily. My apologia is here
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My dad died yesterday, after a good 87 years. What I'll miss most about him is that whatever I was reading, he loved talking about it. Clearly, he cared more about talking w/ me than the book in itself. You don't get many people like that in your life.
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A prerequisite to crypto value, in the long run, is independence. EOS, Ripple, Cardano, Binance have all clearly stated they will provide a back door to sufficiently powerful outsiders. This single fact makes everything else they do irrelevant.
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With a single medalist, Liechtenstein has an insurmountable lead in the per capita medal race.
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Gun ownership isn't a fringe issue. It predicted 2016 voting better than any single metric that is relatively common (43% of households own a gun).
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If Senators cannot grasp the equivalence of dividends and share buy-backs, their forays into more subtle financial matters are sure to be based on ignorance.
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For women, the number of sexual partners decreases with increasing physical attractiveness; for men, it increases.
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I read some of Rene Girard for the first time. Interestingly, he puts envy at the root of human desire. Economists still model humans as indifferent to others, with only piecemeal acknowledgment of envy.
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@mbeisen
@AllofUsResearch
@Nature
If a genetic database does not have racial diversity, it is criticized for being racist. If it targets and demonstrates its racial diversity, it is criticized for reifying race.
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@krishnanrohit
In one of Obama's books, I think, he writes about lecturing his distant family members about how Kenyans should all get along because he thought they were all the same. Racism is stronger in Africa than in the US (Bantu, Tutsi, Kikuyu, Luo,...).
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More data on the Roman decline: Laocoon dated around 100 BCE vs. recently discovered bust dated around 300 CE. Latter looks like a meme gif.
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'Don't be evil (Google),' the 'free speech wing of the free speech party (Twitter),' and now 'unfiltered search (DuckDuckGo).' All lost with the best of intentions and zero humility.
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I suspect that IQ and income are not positively correlated above some level. Still, Taleb's antipathy towards IQ tests, combined with the thinking process exhibited in his writings, suggests his modest IQ scores as a young man contribute to his peevish insecurity.
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@xjpx888
@worstcontrarian
@AgustinLebron3
@therobotjames
@be20684347
As I have not been in a position that appreciated publicity since I left Moody's, I accepted it would go out of print. I posted a pdf of Finding Alpha online at
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If I go to Hell, I'll be stuck in an infinitely long car ride with someone saying these kind of things
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Gold prices are like T-bonds, easy to explain over long horizons, but very difficult to explain year-to-year.
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St. Augustine 'Cursed is everyone who places his hope in changing the nature of man.' Pope Francis: 'believe in a new humanity.'
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@primalpoly
@ScottAdamsSays
The green anti-nuclear stance is so blatantly counter to their explicit goal it makes me think the green essence is simply anti-free market. Nuclear is a profitable industry with reasonable regulations, not needing perpetual gov't subsidies, etc., not so for wind and solar.
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@pope_head
If your faith depended on the veracity of the Shroud of Turin it was not true faith, so don't kid yourself that its veracity changed your mind. It was never mentioned by Paul, Augustine, Aquinas, Luther, etc. It's like saying Galileo disproved God.
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In Big Short, people betting on low probability events are geniuses. In reality, people do this all the time, generally overpaying.
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What's going on in a bat cave? Researchers found bats were mainly arguing. Top subjects are familiar:
-food
-position in cluster, someone too close
-unwanted amorous advances by males
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Lewis is just wrong. Brokerages are only susceptible to runs if they are comingling customer funds with their own capital, which they should never do. While he's a compelling writer, his profound takes have always been superficial.
“They had a great real business. If no one had cast aspersions on the business, if there hadn’t been a run on customers deposits, they’d still be making tones of money”
ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME!!!
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Tyler Cowen's latest book is spot-on. I too am for promoting human flourishing, and not just in the short term. Game changer.
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@timkellernyc
Critical Theory is ignorant and illogical, motivated by resentment and envy. "Let no one deceive you with empty words, for because of these things the wrath of God comes upon the sons of disobedience."
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Most people in finance are mainly salesmen, their expertise is in people and marketing. They know nothing about anything subtle the average investor does not ask about.
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@RubinReport
@seanhannity
Olive Garden's endless breadsticks to be rebranded as endless 'Animal Farm Butter Laminated Brioche'
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There will always be lots of random violence, but what galls me about these videos is the indifference of bystanders. The Marine who intervened walked up casually while seeing the woman being hammered. What a loser.
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I'm unsure how this fits into God's plan for Jews, Christians, or anyone else. However, going long only on the first calendar day of Passover has generated a significant positive return over the past 92 years (65 obs).
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"all people who pass away and test positive for COVID-19, regardless of the cause of death, means that the death will be marked as a COVID-19 death"
~Illinois Director of Public Health
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@JackPosobiec
@DarrenJBeattie
People with 50% or less ancestry have preferred to self-identify as African-American since the 80s at least. If you can choose your race, and choose A over B, clearly A is less oppressive.
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NYT columnist Maureen Dowd today: "Progressives are the modern Puritans." True, and I found it very insightful when Moldbug made that point 10-ish years ago.
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Venezuelans cross border to buy goods at 10x official price.Socialism: everything's cheap, there just isn't anything
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@sentientist
Herding sheep is a complex behavior that some dog breeds learn much more easily than others. Although there is not a single gene for it, it is still genetic.
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neurosurgeons die from Alzheimer's at a seven-fold higher rate than they do from other disorders, people whose spouses have dementia are at a six-times greater risk
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It's strange that the standard headhunter is looking for 2+ Sharpes. Given avg. HF has Sharpe <1, they are asking for the liars or morons
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Competition is the best regulator. Lowering costs of entry help more than any other regulation.
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@EddyElfenbein
I used to be cynical about the lottery, but the "Please play responsibly" note on the bottom convinces me their heart is in the right place.
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@d_feldman
I tell my wife: why shut the cupboards when you just have to open them again to get what you want. They should be removed.
She still doesn't get it.
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The price of cotton fell over 99% from 1784 through 1860. Never has a product of universal demand experienced such revolutionary production efficiency.
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@JonahDispatch
9/11 was a tragedy, but it was a one-and-done, and NATO and America's response was tragically inept. Like the March of Dimes, NATO is a classic example of a bureaucracy that has succumbed to Pournelle's Iron Law and exists for itself.
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@PriyamvadaGopal
If someone says 2+2=5, the earth is flat, or Eskimos aren't human, and you are afraid of debating them, that's just because you're embarrassed you can't articulate your objection. Even if you failed in the debate you would adduce requisite arguments from others.
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@ScottAdamsSays
Climate models contain 70's-era macroeconomic models that economists no longer use (because they don't work).
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New climate 'denier' book highlighted this fact: global greening since 1980 has been massive. Here's NASA's view:
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FiveThirtyEight hiring econ writers up to 29 hours a week! That's funny, Obamacare kicks in at 30 hours.
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@VBallTuan
@EvanSernoffsky
He had a troubled life, but he seemed to have turned his life around. Neighbors and teachers are shocked. His mom says that's not him.
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@sunrisemvmt
@SenFeinstein
The idea that 7 yr olds have an informed opinion on this issue is absurd.
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The latest finding contradicting medical expert opinion: blood pressure mortality risk is not linear.
h/t
@Mangan150
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Fooled by Randomness aka Survivorship Bias. Black Swan aka Peso Problem/Fat Tails. Antifragile aka Puts and/or Hormesis. Taleb introduced many people to these concepts, which is a good thing, but they weren't new ideas when he wrote about them.
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'The meaning of life is whatever prevents you from killing yourself' ~ Albert Camus
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'The deepest principle in human [and dog] nature is the craving to be appreciated' ~William James
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@CliffordAsness
The funny thing is, AMC was picked as a way to screw the hedge funds based on an outdated list of stocks with large hedge fund shorts. If these Robin Hoods had accurate data, AMC wouldn't be part of this bizarre movement and recognized as the troubled business that it is.
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@EddyElfenbein
So, get a mailbox in your highest-cost city, then use a VPN to pretend you really live there while living in a freakishly large house in Kansas.
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My rule is to simply try to never be rude. All sorts of evil comes when you think you can be mean to bad people.
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In the first 40 years the Japanese stock market rose 17% annually with 18% vol; in the last 30 years it's lost 2% annually with 21% vol.
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@VitalikButerin
@paulg
There's 1 eth on the best bid (0.2), 0.25 eth on the best ask (0.4). It last traded 10 months ago. Using Augur to estimate Trump's election chances is like basing a company's valuation on what a single analyst wrote last year in a blog post.
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I just bet Robin Hanson against 250k US Caronavirus deaths by end of 2021, giving him 10:1 odds. It's on my balance sheet as a $100 asset, but I should shade it down a bit because of his death rate (~0.5% per year), as it would be unseemly to ask his estate for the payout.
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Stupid people generate inconsistent aims
Promote own culture = cultural supremacy
Promote other culture = cultural appropriation
?!?
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Value factor at historic long-term low. We all know what was happening in 1999, but now?
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As a Minnesotan, I'm sympathetic to Prince's theory it's nice here cuz "it's so cold, it keeps the bad people out"
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@realchrisrufo
@MattWalshBlog
He granted it was, perhaps, "very uncomfortable," so let's give him props for some real empathy and compassion.
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God grant me the Serenity to ignore the patterns I cannot predict,
Courage to trade patterns I can,
and the Wisdom to know the difference
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@Roko__eth
If you had five decent metrics for athleticism (wrist strength, vertical leap, sprint), it would obviously correlate with athletic achievement. Everyone has intuition some people are athletically gifted genetically.
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Converse adds a thin layer of felt to the soles of their sneakers to be classified as slippers. This reduces their import tax from 37% to 3%.
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@TaraMcCarthy444
@SteveStuWill
On rare occasions when a NYT story mentions stats not flattering to saintly victim groups, will always have a 2 sentence explanation of overlapping distributions; for stats that highlight their prejudices (eg men make more $) no explanation is needed.
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Good books for finance students. All have big flaws, but all are well written, making them easy reads.
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Syntax rules you don't know you know. English adjective order is number, quality, size, age, shape, color, origin, material, purpose.
eg: lovely little old rectangular green French spoon; old white cotton shirt, small black plastic bag.
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I did a monte carlo test on actual stock data to test how well that diversification formula does. It does amazingly well.
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'Marx pretended that he wanted the happiness of the proletariat, what he really wanted was the unhappiness of the bourgeois. It was because of that negative element that his philosophy produced disaster. ' Bertrand Russell, 1952
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Connor MacGregor was last year's highest-paid athlete at $180MM. Yet strangely, the UFC can't afford extra fabric to properly attire their ring girls.
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@CliffordAsness
Solzhenitsyn lived in Vermont in the 70s and 80s, but Bernie Sanders never sought him out. He didn't care to learn about the real Soviet Union, which he idolized well after it was an obviously repressive and backward state.
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@CliffordAsness
"The chief difference between free capitalism and State socialism seems to be this: that under the former a man pursues his own advantage openly, frankly and honestly, whereas under the latter he does so hypocritically and under false pretenses." ~HLMencken
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My son's college roommate tested positive for covid, and experienced a day with a sore throat. My asymptomatic son is now quarantined in a hotel room and not allowed out, for 14 days.
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This study is too good to check.
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Gave blood today, mainly for selfish reasons. It helps keep my ferritin low.
@Mangan150
introduced me to the dangers of iron for older men.
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"Nothing so undermines your financial judgement as the sight of your neighbor getting rich."
"A man generally has two reasons for doing a thing. One that sounds good, and a real one."
"My first guess is sometimes right. My second never is."
~ JP Morgan
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I'm shocked that some wealthy people figured out how to game a closed subjective selection process with exceptions for athletics, alumni, and intersectional status. 😮
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@ATabarrok
@JeffreyASachs
Name that movie:
Mattias: 'all I said to my wife was that piece of halibut was good enough for Jehova.'
Angry mob: 'ooh!'
Official: 'Blasphemy! He said it again!'
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