Ed Elson
@edels0n
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co-host Prof G Markets | host First Time Founders | @profgalloway ’s analyst
Joined June 2020
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Three years ago I asked
@profgalloway
for an internship. A lot has happened since then. We: wrote a NYT bestseller, created two TV shows (both got cancelled), won the Webby for best business newsletter, and of course, launched
#ProfGMarkets
.
There have been many great moments,
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The early crypto skeptics deserve more credit.
Not only did they call all of this, they did so in the face of constant shaming and harrassment. (Not to mention everyone pointing to the increasing value of their crypto wallets as evidence that they were wrong.)
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Gavin Newsom’s recent appearance on Hannity is a masterclass in communication and debate. A must-watch for all leaders — no matter what field you’re in or what party you belong to.
How Newsom took on Hannity, a thread🧵
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My boss (
@profgalloway
) has been locked out of his account for > 2 weeks now.
@elonmusk
I thought this was the free speech platform?
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9/ Those are just a few great moments. There are many more.
Some takeaways:
- It pays to know your sh*t
- Don't blindly agree/disagree, listen
- No notes > notes
- Owning mistakes is rhetorically powerful
- Be affable, it's disarming
- Let your opponent finish their argument
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10/ We need more of this in American politics. Well-researched long-form debates involving both sides. Every leftwing politician should be willing to go on a rightwing news show and speak, and vice versa.
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Even when the institutional investors flooded in, they held firm in their beliefs. Brave enough to say, just because Sequoia likes it, doesn't mean I should. Brave enough to say something wasn't right.
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1/ Hannity starts by attacking Biden with a laundry list of political issues as though it’s assumed they’ve failed.
Newsom: “Let’s talk about all of them - IN ORDER.”
Off the bat he demonstrates any rhetorical flourish will be met with an informed and data-driven response.
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They also had no financial incentive to speak out. Just a personal obligation to call a spade a spade and help spread the truth about the dangers of financial malpractice.
Respect!
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6/ Hannity brings up California emigration and comes prepared with notes and charts.
Newsom makes a point of allowing Hannity to show ALL his data and deliver ALL his points. Doesn’t interrupt.
When Hannity’s done, Newsom adds all omitted data, then turns it back on him.
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2/ When Hannity tries to change topics, Newsom redirects him back to the premise Hannity himself had introduced.
He then demonstrates the hypocrisy of highlighting Covid’s effect on Trump’s job record while refusing to acknowledge its relationship with Biden-era inflation.
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11/ Also want to point out my respect for
@seanhannity
for having Newsom on in the first place and airing it.
He could have simply not aired it or misleadingly clipped it. Instead, he showcased the full debate.
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5/ On DeSantis’s decision to send 50 Florida migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, Newsom focuses the discussion on the importance of basic human dignity. It’s a contranst to the more nuanced points he made earlier.
“You don’t do this to human beings.”
The simplicity adds emphasis.
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3/ Hannity states multiple reasonable Republican talking points on immigration. Most Dems would be baited into disagreement. Instead Newsom points out Dems are ALREADY addressing all issues raised, then nods to the faulty premise: “Let’s have this conversation in a rational way.”
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7/ On homelessness: Intead of trying to fight Hannity (“not an issue,” “that’s not true”) he makes a bold and powerful statement:
“It’s a disgrace.”
He then outlines all the ways he’s trying to fix the problem while recognizing it hasn’t been solved. He repeats: “I own this.”
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Individuals that come to mind:
@smdiehl
@Nouriel
@FoldableHuman
@molly0xFFF
@ben_mckenzie
@SilvermanJacob
@CasPiancey
@BennettTomlin
Who did I miss?
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4/ Hannity questions Democratic beliefs by framing them as hypocrisies. Border control + pro-immigration, energy independence + reduced oil production, etc.
Newsom points out these are rhetorical binaries and the issues are more complex. Then illustrates this with data.
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8/ Guns come up, and Newsom shows he knows what he’s talking about — he’s shot a lot of guns.
He doesn’t get too animated on this topic (as many do) and instead delivers a powerful assertion: “They are weapons of war.” Then repeats it despite Hannity’s retort.
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12/ I recommend watching the rest of the conversation. Start here:
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Way back when I was an intern for
@profgalloway
, I gave this presentation on crypto/DeFi. I was a big believer.
It was compelling at the time. But today I looked at it again. And WOW is it flawed + misleading.
Everything I got wrong about crypto, a thread🧵
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Thank you
@elonmusk
for restoring free speech to the town square
@edels0n
@profgalloway
@elonmusk
Take a look at this too…apparently his tweets aren’t searchable anymore either! Looks like censorship to me!
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I asked
@profgalloway
if he has any advice for all the people getting laid off.
His response:
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This guy just ate a spoonful of wasabi
“I thought it was guacamole”
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The single best piece of career advice you will receive:
Get stuff done.
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Ah yes, all that censorship I was suffering. Can't wait to finally express myself.
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# of grocery stores in America:
🥬 39K
# of fast food restaurants in America:
🍔 247K
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@chadloder
I’ve long wondered that, but honestly, I don’t think so. Or if they knowingly unloaded, it’s because they realized after the fact.
Unless there’s any evidence to support your point?
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This is great. Just missing:
- “Peanut butter and chocolate”
- “However, however”
- “I don’t know if you know this Ed”
- “When I was on the board of the NYT”
For all you loyal listeners of
@profgalloway
and the Prof G Pod, I offer the unofficial, unsanctioned, unlicensed Prof G bingo card. Have at it!
@edels0n
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Honestly, in a sea of business podcasts, I think this is why ours works
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When you get the “let’s do an emergency episode” text but you still don’t know what the f**k is going on
$SIVB
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This is what
@profgalloway
means by “quitters”
REPORTER: "What else should be done to protect people like your little girl?"
BURCHETT: "Well, we homeschool her."
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Excited to announce
#ProfGMarkets
is expanding to its own dedicated podcast channel.
Starting May 20th, episodes will be released twice-weekly — more coverage, more depth, and more experts.
Thanks
@semafor
and
@maxwelltani
for the write-up:
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Free speech absolutist
@elonmusk
has shadow-banned
@profgalloway
from Twitter👍
Message from
@profgalloway
in two parts:
I’ve been “disappeared” by twitter. Two weeks ago, wrote a post saying Elon, and his advisers, were nihilist and catastrophists (). That week, my (TWTR) account was shut off. Can’t log back in.
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Before I begin, why am I doing this?
I'm a crypto-skeptic but didn't used to be. That's why this deck is revealing: I believed in crypto for many of the same reasons everyone else does.
It's a case study on bubbles — the groupthink that turned crypto into a $3T asset class.
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Excited to report that
@profgalloway
and I have been named 2024 honorees for "Best Co-Hosts" at The Webby Awards.
It's quite surreal to be recognized alongside giants such as Jason Bateman and Will Arnett — 2024 appears to be our breakout year.
OK. Back to work!
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Elon likely doesn’t know the baffling number of predictions Scott has gotten right (WeWork, Whole Foods, Bitcoin, etc.)
But at least he knows what he and Scott have in common:
@ICannot_Enough
@jaylew333
Since he is consistently wrong, it should be possible to do quite well simply by doing the opposite of what he recommends
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9) Here's a classic: Invoking Metcalfe's Law to activate greed glands.
Pro-tip: Anyone who relies on Metcalfe's Law to justify the value of their product does not have a product. It's typical Ponzinomics: Just wait till there are MORE users, and then there'll be even MORE value.
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In addition, a traditional IPO would have meant lock-ups for existing investors. However, they opted for a direct listing and sold immediately.
This was regulatory arbitrage at its finest — and most purposeful.
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19.9 million: The number of times people viewed Queen Elizabeth's Wikipedia page on the day of her death.
The most page-views on a single day ever.
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This is the crypto playbook:
1) Criticize old financial products, pump crypto ✅
2) Ride bubble, lock in users✅
3) When bubble pops, pivot to old financial products✅
4) Become bank [loading...]
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I asked
@profgalloway
what’s surprised him most about his career.
His response was quite moving:
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The guy who said bitcoin would hit a million last month is now telling us not to trust … *all data*
TOO FAKE TO TELL?
In 2008, the banks were too big to fail.
In 2023, the stats are too fake to tell.
But here's why
@DavidSacks
may be onto something.
- They "beat" expectations 14 months in a row[1]
- They admit using statistical models to augment[2]
- They have a 600k
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5) Ridiculous stretch pt. 2:
How to solve corruption, excessive control, and mismanagement? Bitcoin, apparently. Why? Because it's decentralized.
Nothing on why that actually fixes the problems. Nor how trustless fixes trust. Just a vague presumption that bitcoin is the answer.
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“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.”
— F. Scott Fitzgerald
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To emphasize: I believed in all of this. I cut many logical corners, but subconsciously convinced myself that wasn't a problem.
@liron
has written many great threads on this phenomenon. (So has
@nntaleb
,
@smdiehl
,
@ben_mckenzie
+ others.)
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The debt ceiling deal will cut the IRS budget by $21.4B.
The IRS is responsible for generating government revenue.
This does not make sense.
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Turned 24 today. Also received anonymous BR delivery to the office.
Life is good.
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Me in every Markets intro
Unmuting my microphone so I can laugh at my boss’s terrible jokes
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Re "robbery": The relevant question is whether you believe THEY believed the company was fundamentally flawed.
Overwhelming evidence (34% Dogecoin revenue, incoherent use-case justification, regulatory uncertainty, etc.) suggests to me they did.
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YouTube generated more revenue last year ($29B) than:
- Nvidia
- PayPal
- McDonald's
- Mastercard
- Adidas
OR
- Snap,
- Spotify,
- Airbnb,
- New York Times,
combined.
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U.S. and U.K. to BAN Russian oil imports. Sounds like a major blow to Putin until you realize:
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Believing society would be better off outside of a regulated financial system isn’t a sign a vision — it’s a sign of ignorance.
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4) And BOOM, my first ridiculous stretch. Here I selectively present random bad things that happened at centralized institutions, and falsely draw causation from the fact that they're "centralized."
If this slide were truthful, it would say: "PEOPLE are susceptible to:"
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This thread will make my deck sound like a "grift". To be clear, I never intended to grift anyone.
But, enabled by subconscious biases and excitement, I deluded myself into thinking I'd struck gold. And searched for reasons to rationalize it. (How bubbles start.)
OK, let's go:
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A step in the right direction in my view.
Affirmative action on the basis of race allows universities to signal equality without addressing the most obvious inequity of all: family income.
If anyone deserves a boost, it’s poor students. It should be about money.
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The best way to spend your Saturday night is to listen to me and
@profgalloway
talk about that bank that blew up 👇
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1) I start with the old "trust in institutions is declining" set up.
(This was one of the biggest philosophical frameworks for crypto: Large, centralized institutions don't work. It was so compelling because it felt so big-picture.)
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As we said on Monday's pod: Hindenburg's accusations aren't just mismanagement, but outright fraud. Feds now getting involved.
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Oddly, gov't's biggest critics are some of its biggest beneficiaries.
@elonmusk
, whose two biggest companies are heavily dependent on gov't support, says "get rid of all" gov't subsidies.
@peterthiel
says our gov't is "socialist." But gov't contracts = 60% of Palantir revenue
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20) Cue handwavey Adam Neumann-esque technobabble. My greatest sin.
BTW, the statement "people also thought internet/email/mobile would fail" is not evidence that a new technology will work. It's like if I rolled up sh*t in a piece of paper and said "people also doubted Google."
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8) Business jargon: deployed.
Here I use flywheel to insinuate that decentralized technology is somehow self-perpetuating. When in reality, it's just as dependent on human action as anything else: Someone still has to build the thing. This really is nothing new.
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14) The absolute classic. "Banking is unequal." *Proceeds to pull data from poverty-stricken nations suffering from completely different problems*
Good rule of thumb: The larger/more global a mission statement becomes, the more likely it is that it's BS.
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6) Note how quickly I move onto Ethereum, as if the value proposition of Bitcoin is unquestionable.
"Now that you love Bitcoin, you'll love this other crypto thing. Let me explain..."
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Reminder:
Ep. 23 Hyperinflation and reckless monetary policy could soon devastate the global economy. We traveled to Argentina, where it’s already happened.
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