Amrita Sen
@ea_amrita
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Full time energy analyst, part time kick boxer, runner
London
Joined February 2011
Low Cushing tank utilisation (~sub 30%) for so long is the tightest in over 43 years: we were told by schedulers during our visit earlier
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The JTC report showing a higher surplus needs to be read in context. OPEC Secretariat has to assume every OPEC+ country produces at quota including Russia. And the report references July. August production will be even lower. We have long highlighted lack of spare capacity #opec.
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Sat down yesterday with HRH Prince Abdul Aziz Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, to discuss the Kingdom's view on energy policy, OPEC+ and much more. As ever, so thankful for the generous hospitality of HRH and the entire team at the Energy Ministry.
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Thank you @AndurandPierre for a fun-filled morning! My 2 key takeaways from Pierre were: 1) most bullish oil, neutral European gas and staying on the sidelines of carbon until peace breaks out; and 2) recessions are not binary, doesn’t mean oil has to go down (see 2011-14).
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Very excited to host the awesome @AndurandPierre tomorrow at the @EnergyAspects offices for a live Q&A on everything energy and the irrationality of current oil markets! Looking forward to what clients will ask :).
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So happy to see so many of our clients at @EnergyAspects’ 2023 IE week event - a record breaking 600+ turnout!
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Worst sentiment ever. Crude can't even rally with a 10 mb US crude and clean products draw. Destocking continues but market given up #OOTT.
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For all the talk on EVs, global oil demand set to hit 100 mb/d in 2018, about 7 years before forecasts under IEA's 350 scenario predicted.
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Our balances which account for production and not quotas show commercial stocks only building by 0.1 mb/d this year and liquids drawing by 0.3 mb/d. This includes all the SPR drawn down! And stocks are still way below the 10-yr avg! Market remains tight.
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Was great speaking with @adsteel and @GuyJohnsonTV last night on @BloombergTV - really fun discussion! See you both in person hopefully soon :) .Full interview below:.
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The intermittency of wind power as Javier highlights is grossly misunderstood by politicians. As is the issue of wind not generating enough returns. Read about this in our recently published report
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Global oil demand rose by 3 mb/d y/y in May. $50 oil in current economic backdrop too low, spurring demand on. Diesel the key beneficiary.
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European oil demand is flying. June up by 0.78 mbd y/y. Q2 17 OECD demand jumps y/y to nearly at par with non-OECD growth, first since 1996!.
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Escalation with Qatar does not spell the end of OPEC; group has existed even during wars between member countries. Market fear unfounded.
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Field trip to check out ProPetro’s frac fleet at Pioneer’s Midland acreage where we got to see some live fracking! Learnt so much from the awesome ProPetro team on the ground. Team EA thanks you for your awesome hospitality! @EnergyAspects
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So excited to be heading back to Singapore! The @EnergyAspects team and I will be back in town from Thursday, and our first post-covid APPEC reception takes place on Tuesday 27 Sep, looking forward to seeing everyone.
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Our very first Japanese language webinar recording! BOJ policy will be crucial for macro markets this year. @medleyadvisors @EnergyAspects
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@EnergyAspects is at ONS. Come see us at hall 10! And I will be presenting at 3pm at the main conference hall hosting several CEOs and the PM of Belgium. #ONS2022
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@EnergyCynic It’s pretty high if we surge higher in the near term and end up with a recession by year end. I’d buy June crude and sell Dec crude.
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@churnerofmarket @garquake We’ve been tactically bearish for the last 5 weeks calling for a correction but there is a difference between tactical bearishness and structural bullishness - which we remain.
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Last time global refinery additions exceeded demand growth was 2014. And with all the spec changes, there is limited spare capacity #OOTT
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@aeberman12 US isn’t the whole world :) Asia is only just abandoning zero Covid policies ex-China. There is a lot of pent up demand to be had in the east.
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What Bloomberg has published about an Energy Aspects note re Saudi Arabia considering pausing an output increase is not true.
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Highlights for @IEF_Dialogue didn’t only include some phenomenal energy market conversations with brilliant minds of the industry and details on Saudi Arabia’s energy transition and innovation but also immense hospitality and sumptuous food! Need to go for triple runs now!
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CTA shorts and negative gamma from producer hedging especially Pemex adding to already bearish oil sentiment. But crude way oversold! #OOTT.
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A real honour to be invited to speak (and do some impromptu chairing) at the @IEF_Dialogue @IEA @OPECSecretariat Symposium on Energy Outlooks in Riyadh today. @carole_nakhle we missed you! @Bob_McNally Ken Koyama Laszlo Varro & Irina Gayda. Was a great panel on price volatility!.
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Arrived in beautiful Stavanger, ready for the ONS Summit today and Conference tomorrow @ONS_Stavanger #ONS2016
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Calls for backwardation in Q2 17 too early. We think it will happen but by late summer as over 200 mb of crude stocks still to run down.
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Crude sells of despite EIA draws. Market expected more. But DAPL linefill skewing data - counted as builds. PADD3 drawing nicely #OOTT.
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@marry_ilona @garquake @trend_bullish Was for diesel and we were at $180 diesel for a while. Crude was never predicted at those levels.
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We need to learn from the Japanese about how to make the simplest of food taste so amazing and look so pretty! Will miss Japan!
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Physical Brent getting destroyed-diffs at record lows. Prognosis for light crude not great given shale surge and all refiners want sours.
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@JavierBlas Couldn’t agree more with you @JavierBlas - we wrote about this extensively recently under our transition service
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When you sleep for 3 hours for 3 days straight and oil is going mad, I deserve this :)
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Decent set of EIA stats but pace of crude draws has slowed, disappointing many. Floating is falling too but bear markets continue #OOTT.
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CTAs are allegedly not 100% short yet, so some more downside to oil prices, following which it should stabilise #oott.
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Will calmer nerves prevail in oil next week? As long as there are no contradictory statements by OPEC! Oil on water down a lot. #OOTT.
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Deferred Brent spreads getting clobbered. Front bid as floating storage econs near. Atlantic Basin awash in light crudes from Nigeria, Libya.
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Exhausting week, not-so-great #OPEC outcome but thank you Vienna for lovely weather + amazing food. Will miss the truffle pasta at Antinori!.
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OPEC extends deal by 9 months; Saudi to cut US exports. Sentiment battered as expectations were raised but spreads can rally on export cuts.
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@JavierBlas2 cutting exports is more impactful on balances. Issue is communication. OPEC need to decide which they will use and stick to it!.
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The report published on Monday discusses Biden’s request to raise output and says that this comes at an opportune moment as covid cases are rising and OPEC+ are probably thinking of whether to pause output increase or not.
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Today, high US imports in next week's EIA spooks market. But runs are rising. As long as rise in increase less than runs, stocks will draw.
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Beautiful weather in Vienna, where #OPEC awaits us. 9-month deal extension should be almost a given but will there be some upside surprises?.
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@hasnain_karim Yes but people now fretting about 2018 balances and think we won't draw enough over the summer to get backwardation.
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15.5 mb of total US inventory builds, against expectations and tanker tracking! Likely an anomaly but export arbs shut, draws to moderate.
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Extremely bearish WTI sentiment at #AFPM this year, US cannot export its problem away. But global overhang clearing. WTI spreads weak today.
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@kxviswan123 @JavierBlas2 Saudis have cut to the US - oil on water down sharply. Should show up from late March adjusted for transit times.
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@cjenscook @Lisa_Ward1990 @TankerTrackers That's for their SPR which cannot be released for 7 years. Not the same as commercial crude draws. Their commercial stocks are falling too.
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Runs in the west have grown more than the east for the first time since 03! Hefty TARs crimping eastern crude demand
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Despite all the light crude oversupply, LLS is backward in the US! DAPL linefill helping but will mean strong outflows from Cushing.
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Best airline snack globally @JetBlue I try and fly with jet blue within the US whenever possible just for the blue potato crisps/chips!
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@Live_News_Nick @business This is not true. The note which we published on Monday simply says Biden’s request comes at a time when “Riyadh is likely thinking about whether to push for a short pause on upcoming quota increases”. It is very important not to misquote reports FYI @JavierBlas.
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Despite crude draws, total US commercial stocks rose 6.8 mb after a 15 mb build last week. Way too much product supplies; runs need to fall.
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Bears still rule-and not the Canadian grizzlies! Surprise crude draw in EIA today supportive but product builds wipe out crude gains #OOTT.
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If investors get stopped out without a change in fundamentals, there will be no dry powder left to absorb the shale hedging. Problem!.
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Fujairah and other ports ban Qatari vessels - can complicate crude and condensate as co-loading with other GCC crudes no longer possible.
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And yes, that's the view from our new London office! Although views from our New York office aren't too shabby either @OneWTC
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@FareedZakaria I am really looking forward to it @FareedZakaria ! The world of energy is getting even more complicated….
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Hello Mumbai! Looking forward to seeing all our India clients tonight for dinner and discussing the oil markets, refining and Indian growth.
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Just landed in New Delhi - always great to be back home even if just for a few hours of meetings! 32 degrees, what a change from London!.
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@Arfxyz @BBCNews @BBCWorld @SallyBundockBBC @chrisrogersBBC Morning! @SallyBundockBBC makes it worth waking up at 4am! @chrisrogersBBC was lots of fun! My first papers with him. More to come :).
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@JavierBlas2 I wouldn't mind OPEC doing their cuts based on exports as that reduces all the issues with domestic refineries. #OOTT.
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Hello Singapore, thanks for welcoming me with thunderstorms at 6.30 am! Look forward to seeing our clients at @energyaspects lunch tomorrow
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Snow is here in NYC! Good for heating demand but bad for gasoline. No express trains :( Long journey to our NYC offices @OneWTC.
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@ManusCranny was so good seeing you in person! Thanks for having me on your show. And hopefully we see each other in Vienna in June 😍
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@bbcbaxter @BenMBland greatto see you both today. @SallyBundockBBC missed you! Hope to see you next time.
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@SMurzynowski @trussliz Exactly @SMurzynowski ! When the government imposes windfall profit taxes on the very companies that it needs to help produce domestic energy, it is hard to see who will come to the rescue. Let markets do the work!.
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Small crude draws in EIA stats today, mainly due to Houston Ship Channel closures but given all the refinery issues, not bad at all #OOTT.
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@SullyCNBC Thanks - best looking man in the energy industry 🤣! @SullyCNBC .You were awesome btw!.
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A very early heatwave grips India. Water reservoir levels falling again, even below last year's low levels. Diesel demand to benefit.
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Bye bye Canada-stunning weather and views! Thanks for all the hospitality as always! Will be back for Argus crude conference Calgary 1 May
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@Big_Orrin Yes we have been saying this for a while. The rebalancing is happening but in heavies. Lights are oversupplied and our benchmarks are light.
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Libyan disruption back, more drops in OPEC esp GCC exports and product stocks drawing fast on refinery works. Crude looking better #OOTT.
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@aeberman12 @Vikingbhoy @Ole_S_Hansen @OilSheppard @FinancialTimes @anasalhajji @Big_Orrin Depends on which LTO. Bakken is very rich disty, as are Nigerian grades. Condensates are not. Permian crude is also fine on diesel cuts.
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Arrived in hazy Singapore. The @energyaspects APPEC reception takes place tomorrow morning and is followed by a busy week of client meetings.
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@sellvolbuytesla This is not true. The note which we published on Monday simply says Biden’s request comes at a time when “Riyadh is likely thinking about whether to push for a short pause on upcoming quota increases”. It is very important not to misquote reports.
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@EnergyCredit1 May and June loaders already down a lot, will appear as lower imports from end June. But stats look bullish for the next few weeks anyways.
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Hello London, so good to be back. But such sad events yesterday. Think positive, remain positive.
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One of the warmest US winters on record? About to land in NYC in -6C!! And snow. That too for the full week? Spring, where art thou?.
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@JavierBlas2 great piece! Also, refinery works in Q1 16 was higher y/y by 1.5 mb/d but crude stockbuilds were 0.8 mb/d less y/y at 0.3 mb/d.
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Concerns around Chinese teapot's crude appetite dominating East of Suez. Rumours abound consumption tax increase. If true +ve diesel. #OOTT.
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@Samir_Madani Have been focussing on exports for months! Hope they listen. OPEC/non-OPEC production down 1.5-1.6 mbd, exports only 0.4 mbd since October.
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