Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文
@donovan_smith
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Staff Columnist, Taipei Times Co-publisher, Compass Magazine Co-founder, Taiwan Report Central Taiwan correspondent, ICRT Former Chair, Taichung AmCham
Joined June 2009
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In the president's new year's 2700 word speech, she didn't refer to the ROC, not once--only Taiwan.
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UMC founder Robert Tsao sent an open letter to Terry Gou rebuking him for not understanding the threat from China:
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So much arguing about national symbols, but there is one everyone absolutely agrees on. Should be on the flag:
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Clearly any young voter will immediately swoon upon seeing the word "young" and switch to the KMT, but I'm guessing the real clincher for young people that will totally win them over is that their shining avatar appears to be wearing a shirt emblazoned with "nothing".
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Int'l media on Taiwan: war, flights in ADIZ, tensions, tensions, tensions!
Taiwan media: Wang Leehom, Wang Leehom, traffic accident, Wang Leehom, Wang Leehom
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So Yen Kuan-heng wore a tiger suit backwards, so the tail...errr...
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The DPP has been leaning in hard on “resist China, protect Taiwan” (抗中保台) in this election, but only as a slogan with zero substance. The party missed a golden opportunity to play to its strengths, 1/2
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New poll shows in hypothetical 3-way races swapping out Hou and Gou, if Hou 24.4%, if Gou 23.7%. This is just one poll, though, need more to see if Gou really has closed the gap.
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They didn't even bother putting unification on the chart it was so low.
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Here is my second piece on a Taiwan Territorial Defence Force (TTDF), which has a lot more ideas on expanding it beyond just armed people, and considering essentials like logistics and medical care, (1/2)
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This is the worst case I've seen of mixing up Taiwan and Thailand:
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The Sydney Morning Herald ran a propaganda hit job on Taiwan by the Chinese ambassador that was straight out of the Global Times playbook. It's one thing to run op-ed pieces presenting different viewpoints, it's something completely different when you run
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You can't make this stuff up...
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Hahaha, little does the Onion know they've already claimed something like this:
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Changhua is outright calling on companies to keep "migrant workers" locked in and not let out, even on their free time. Nantou is "encouraging" companies to "limit" their free time. Totally illegal and immoral if enforced.
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This is a total nightmare, the services pact would eviscerate Taiwan's sovereignty and Hou's 3Ds would do nothing to stop it. If he's serious about defending the ROC and not capitulating to the CCP, he's got to run from this plan. CKS would have executed Hou for treason...
Hou to revive CSSTA. That's the services pact that triggered the Sunflower protests. Hou is basically an avatar of Ma, as I wrote months ago:
also see
@donovan_smith
:
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Not happy reading.
I read the reports on the wealth held by senior politicians, it's heavy on property. Prez Tsai's family got wealthy by property speculation. Nothing is going to change.
By
@royngerng
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Taiwan is nice & polite, kind & gentle concerns play a central role in society. It wasn't always like that, Taiwan used to be a wild west kind of place, dominated by macho, swashbuckling men, with crime, vice & gangsterism rampant. So why did it change?
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I've been featured in media all over the world, but this is the first time in media in my homeland:
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Chaos in the KMT. Chiu Yi is claiming that "party heavyweights" are launching an investigation of Eric Chu in the selection of Hou as candidate, and lists 5 points they'll investigate. 1. Who conducted the "black box" polls Chu consulted, and when? 2. Were the pollsters
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Hmm...something seems out of place in this picture...can't quite put my finger on it...
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Ko: 99.99% of Americans don't know Taiwan has a third force
Pompeo: 99.99% of Americans don't know the other main parties
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This point can't be made enough, the whole concept of a "silicon shield" is nonsense. This time it is
@michaelturton
skewering it skillfully as always:
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Glad to see support coming from a different source than the usual talking heads:
My message to all freedom supporters watching this today is:
We are stronger together.
We must all
#StandWithTaiwan
,
support Taiwan, and defend democracy.
We must keep Taiwan free and safe.
Taiwan belongs to the TAIWANESE people!
#IslandOfResilience
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A look at why KMT keeps fracturing, and DPP remained largely unified over time, by the excellent
@michaelturton
. Had been thinking of writing on this subject, but now will only do so if I can think of something valuable to add to complement this piece:
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My first appearance on Australian TV news. You can see how exhausted I've been since my father's passing & trying (poorly) to deal with that, and the stress-induced eczema on my face from the 90+ hour workload. Still, nice to have made news in Australia:
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Errrrr...someone should tell this guy the 1950s are over:
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Completely agree that TaiwanPlus did a great job on their live interpreting of the TV presidential debate, and respect how well they pulled off something that is incredibly hard to do. Was honoured to be on the post-debate show as a panelist!
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Best piece written on Taiwan's unresolved status I've ever seen!
@michaelturton
really knocked this one out of the park.
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Taiwan's national day speeches serve a purpose similar to the American State of the Union, except for the section on China. Tsai does a very deft balancing act in that section, while managing to make it look easy. My latest:
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The post-Sunflower to 2020 election period where younger voters were overwhelmingly pan-green is over, and those 20-29 are abandoning the DPP. They're also more suspicious of the United States.
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Gou is losing ground steadily, "don't know, etc." is growing fast
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No one saw this coming! Ma just took a wack at Eric Chu and Hou Yu-ih's kneecaps and backed the TPP's Ko Wen-je after a lifetime of devotion to the KMT. There are strategic reasons for this, but that's in the next column, this is about what has unfolded:
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Ma's trip made a total mockery of Eric Chu's attempts to change perceptions of the KMT being too close to China, and Chu is probably livid. Also take apart some misconceptions about the trip.
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This is the last of my poll of polls before the poll blackout. Interesting movements:
#Taiwan
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The Froze's analysis is always so solid and insightful. I get excited when I see a new post is up on his site because it's always a treat:
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The Delphi Economic Forum played a string of games with former President Ma that dishonored him and insulted Taiwan. MOFA stood tall and defended Taiwan's dignity and the former president's honour. Ma did not.
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The Ma interview laid bare what the KMT has been teaching Hou about cross-Strait policy:
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"just as describing Taiwan as a pawn of the US is a pro-PRC ideological position that succeeds by removing Taiwan’s own agency, positing that Taiwan is “between” the US and China is a pro-PRC ideological claim that only makes sense because it quietly removes PRC agency —
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propaganda packed full of outright lies and disinformation. It's totally irresponsible.
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#taiwan
#sydneymorningherald
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Could Taiwan get a new, homegrown constitution? Short to medium term, it's highly unlikely, but there are still things that can be done.
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I've always thought of Hou as a formidable politician, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he has the skills to transition from local politics to national. Not just me who is wondering, many in his party are too. There's talk of a repeat of 2016
#taiwan
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Yet another great and insightful piece by the Froze! Definitely a must-read. Unlike Ko, I think both Hou and Lai are fairly disciplined politicians, but Tsai (and Wang Jin-pyng) have almost superhuman discipline.
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Working on a weighted "poll of polls" to try and get a sense of the race, because each pollster asks different questions, and some polls are consistent and others aren't. This is my first result:
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Ever have a conversation that is on the surface polite, but they keep using 大陸 and I keep saying 中國, and the tension under the surface is obvious to both sides? Sometimes they're just older and aren't making a point, but sometimes you can just tell they really mean it...
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Google News search results had these three headlines back-to-back
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Writers on Taiwan, President (aka speaker) of the Legislative Yuan 游錫堃's preferred romanization of his name is You Si-Kun (
@sikunyou
), not the "Yu Shyi-kun" used previously. I asked, and graciously they replied. I keep a list to get it right. PM me if you want to see the list.
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This is the best, most well-constructed and solidly written piece I've ever read on the subject. Highly recommend it:
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Twice yesterday Terry Gou appeared to call for the Taiwan Garrison Command to be restored. His office says he was quoted out of context. Video posted below, you can be the judge:
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While we've been fortunate that many journalists have relocated from China, and overall quality is improving, there are still a lot of journalists out there with serious misunderstandings about Taiwan:
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More BCC data:
New Taipei City:
Lai: 26.82％
Ko: 25.75％
Hou: 21.67％
Taipei City:
Hou: 32.72％
Ko: 24.55％
Lai: 19.25％
91.17% of DPP supporters support Lai, but only 65.54% on KMT side support Hou
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Apparently today is a big holiday of some kind in the West, but I know you guys are all partying it up because of ROC constitution day.
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Tons of new polls have been released now that the field is clear. Hou definitely has seen a big bump. Will be doing a column on why I think that is the case soon. Lai and Ko are holding steady.
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In 2014 Ko joined the Sunflower protesters, which was kicked off to stop a services trade deal with China. Now he's proposing to revive that same trade deal:
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It's possible to follow Taiwan politics in English, but a lot of the drama, plot twists and turns, colour and detail is missing. There are practical reasons behind this,
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Written before the agreement was made, but even more relevant now. Ma outplayed & outmaneuvered Chu, Hou & esp Ko. Hou & Ko think they will come out ahead but Ma now owns them all. I suspect the loser may try to find an excuse to get out of the agreement
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By my count, Eric Chu has stared down three major revolts and a bunch of smaller ones within the KMT, and come out ahead every time. This time is no exception. The DPP and TPP shouldn't underestimate him:
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The KMT keeps sinking deeper and deeper into its shrinking base:
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Very honoured to be a guest lecturer in the very first year of the very first Taiwan Studies series in India! Many thanks to Professor Manoj Panigrahi and the Centre for Northeast Asian Studies (
@C4NEAS
) for the invite!
#taiwan
#taiwanstudies
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This is totally screwed up. This rips off all my research, facts and figures, even the picture from my latest column, summarizes it and doesn't even give me credit or even a link to my work:
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Lol, check out the pic of mine they used for my upcoming presentation on CCP power at Tunghai University! Definitely getting that "serious expert" vibe:
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Terry Gou announced he was running for president to "unite" the opposition, while simultaneously splitting the vote 3 ways. I explore what I think he's up to. H/t to Nathan Batto for providing the last piece of the puzzle that was frustrating me.
#Taiwan
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Eric Chu refused to speak to the press and sent a spox instead. Traditionally he is supposed to come out and apologize, but he's hiding instead.
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"When Ma turned to the ROC territory, Chiang suddenly froze. Ma’s speech wasn’t exactly thrilling the choir. It was more like he was a cranky old uncle who you pretend not to hear when he starts saying embarrassing things about minorities."
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A thoroughly depressing read, but glad
@PaulHuangReport
wrote it and got it in Foreign Policy. With luck it will spur debate here in Taiwan.
Taiwan's Army Is A Hollow Shell After End of Conscription
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My response to an editorial that ran in the Taipei Times claiming that "a vast militarization taking place in Taiwan" and that it was promoting violence.
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In 2020 party financial reports I discovered KMT is continuing to report income and assets seized by Ill-gotten gains committee, something no one in the press picked up on. Taken out, they're US$617.2 million in the hole, and lost US$23.5 million last year
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"those identifying solely as Chinese fell to 2.7 percent"
There are over half a million spouses from China, plus a fair number of elderly KMT refugees born in China (Jason Hu, etc). That 2.7 percent is almost entirely actually Chinese.
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The US policy of strategic ambiguity no longer means what it used to, and people need to look at it in a new light:
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So I wrote those two pieces on Tsai, and it struck me that I can't recall anyone writing about her political journey and remarkable rise in English in an article format, so started this series:
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Interestingly, Ko actually specifies that Lee Tung-hui is his model, but I don't get the sense that he fully understands him, and that Mike is right, he's closer in some ways to CCK-era thinking. Terry Gou is even more CCK-era influenced:
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Considering writing an article on KMT finances and the Andrew Hsia trip to China. They're connected.
The Taipei High Administrative Court upholds the state's decision to confiscate two KMT investment companies worth NT$15.6 billion (about US$520 mil.) under the 'Ill-gotten Property Act'. KMT can appeal.
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The most powerful and effective way to normalize relations with Taiwan would be to coordinate with allies, forming a coalition of countries doing it all at once. Japan, Canada, UK, etc. alone would be susceptible to pressure, but PRC can't fight back against them all, too costly
US Think Tank
@Project2049
exploring possible US-ROC (Taiwan) joint communique to normalize relations. 美智庫研議與台簽公報 推動「美台關係正常化」 - 國際 - 自由時報電子報
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Spot on as usual. I posted on Twitter that Ko got played, but rolled works just as well.
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For all the talk of Pres. Tsai dropping satisfaction rates, this graph demonstrates that historically she's actually doing quite well--higher than all of 2017, 2018 and most of 2019.
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I'm going to be in Taipei Sun night giving a speech at 6:30 pm at Red Room Rendezvous 紅房餐酒館. It's a free event (but expected to order something from the restaurant), and there will be plenty of opportunity for Q&A. If you're in Taipei, you're welcome to join! (Link below):
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Pres Tsai (diplomatic background) has picked a stellar diplomatic team. The Pres herself, Hsiao in the US, Wu as FM, Frank Hsieh (admit never fond of him, but he is former premier) in Japan, Yotaka as spox-cut through the "wolf warriors" like butter and make them look like fools.
This “crazy, tiny country” happens to be a freedom-loving country just doing what other EU countries have done — open an office in Taiwan. And yes, small countries can be courageous, principled, and better respected than big giant bullies.
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One China Principle: Taiwan is part of China, or else!
One China Policy: Yeah, we know you think that.
One China Fallacy: That the Manchurian empire is "China" (incl Taiwan, Tibet, etc)
One China Idea: Something the Economist just made up to avoid using "policy" or "principle"
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Terry Gou's ideas on cross-Strait ties and national defence are outright dangerous, and at odds with the KMT's official position under Eric Chu. My latest:
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Lai is about as close to an ideal candidate as the DPP could hope for, but his room to maneuver is very constrained and there may be a cap in how much more support he can attract. He's fortunate that this is a 3-way race.
#taiwan
#TaiwanPolitics
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Stealing and repurposing the MeToo movement to protest cyber armies isn't a good look:
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This is a big, big deal. Eric Chu appears to be making the most audacious power grab in modern Taiwan politics, but the question is, what is he up to?
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"the KMT has humanized, even beatified Lai by giving him a Taiwan-centered history with longstanding, widely-encountered, and well understood problems, presenting Lai as a highly educated, successful, hardworking Taiwanese who rose from a background of desperate poverty,
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If it happens, this could be a big deal. This, plus related things like Lithuania standing up for Taiwan, have the potential to set up a series of domino effects that lead to a sea change in how the int'l community views and deals with Taiwan. Not inevitable, but fingers crossed.
Biden announces Summit for Democracy will be held in December, Taiwan expected to participate
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Wow,
@michaelturton
's devastating Tweet on Glaser's comments the other day is really getting the attention it deserves, this is the second piece I've seen it cited in so far:
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One of the most original and creative campaigners in the country:
Nocturnal campaigning with local candidates in the Matsu Islands. Yellow croacker fish balloons coming to a village near you!
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There are some good scholars in the UK, Australia and India that come to mind that could use the support:
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Wu Sz-huai is
#4
on the KMT party list, a safe seat. In the legislature he'll get privileged access to govt information. He's visited China and publicly sung the CCP anthem, he's been on TV explaining to Chinese how to win against Taiwan...people should be very, very alarmed.
Wu Sz-huai: to deal with the biggest super power like China, Taiwan should be obedient.
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"Instead, the problem was that the KMT was trying to eat the TPP and Ko had finally come to understand that. The margin of error “misunderstanding” was just an excuse."
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