With a budget resolution and reconciliation bill in the news, here’s a short guide to understanding the numbers coming from Congress and the White House: A “$2 trillion cut” is not a cut from current fiscal year spending. In fact, it’s likely not a “cut” at all. It’s an unenforceable promise to reduce total expected spending by $2 trillion OVER TEN YEARS. To put this in context, if the government had been expecting to spend $89 trillion over the next ten years, it would be PROMISING to spend $87 trillion instead, a difference so insignificant it wouldn’t come close to staving off a debt crisis. Keep in mind that government officials today can’t bind government officials in the future. That’s why it’s just a promise. But it’s even worse than that. As weak as the promise is—spending about 2% less over ten years—it’s nonetheless a promise few in government intend to keep. The same Congress and White House that brag about this illusory “cut” today will simply abandon the idea within a cycle or two. And here’s another important thing to understand about the numbers: When Congress passes—and the president signs into law—a $2 trillion appropriations bill, the SPENDING DOES HAPPEN in the current fiscal year. In other words, the $2 trillion of spending is a real thing that will happen this year, while the “$2 trillion cut” is just a promise, which, even if realized, would not on its own mean an actual cut in the size or scope of government, just a reduction in its expected growth.

Stop. Deficit. Spending.