The entire listed power universe has been covered well in these two slides. You may ask your specifc questions in the comments and i ll try to answer them. Please no buy sell recommendations.
#Energytransition
1 MW costs 6-8 cr. This is a 6.5 lakh crore!! opportunity where the profit pool of the entire value chain is proven, and IRRs are constant. In the name of ESG the entire space has been vacated which can lead to higher margins. !! First it was 30, then 50 and now 80 all within a
Wind sector - Reverse auction fears. The rules would be applicable to only SECI auctions which is a small share in the wind sector market. The C & I and the captive power part are the the major other sources where this does not apply. Expect the impact to be minimal.
#powergrid
concall highlights for power sector
1. Strong focus on complete digitization across the entire spectrum of transmission network. - Beneficial for Cyient, Schneider Electric.
2. HVDC projects are going to be 5-year projects. Expect them to be operational around FY
If you are bullish on data centers, you have to be bullish on power and energy that will drive that power. A good video on the TAM in the US as far as power capex is concerned.
@Finstor85
#TECHNO
CMP 289.. the company has been aggressively buying since last one month in the buyback. Results on 14th. Iska time aa gaya ??
@suru27
@LearningEleven
???
One of the most talked about articles on twitter today. Just yesterday highlighted how EPC players should be watched out for this year.
Power EPC remains complex due to the complex engineering involved out there. Unlike civil projects, the requirement of technical expertise if
The last 2 years have been phenomenal for the power financers and power equipment players. It fits perfectly in the value chain. The orders being announced, the financing being locked up and the POs for equipment placed. This CY 24 one should monitor the Power EPC piece in
#Transformes
are skilled labour products made to customer specification. In results while topline would increase due to the huge market size opportunity, i would focus on the EBIDTA margin which would be impacted by aggressive bidding. Also interest cost, small players to be
#Energytransition
. the entire space should not be looked at in silos like solar, BESS, coal, oil etc. One has to look at the holistic picture in detail and find the overlap in between them. Had discussed this during our spaces with
@AI_Feb21
Why i still prefer thermal over renewables at the moment. JSW energy has recently commissioned thermal plant along with NTPC has one of the best thermal assets in the country.
The last 2 years have been phenomenal for the power financers and power equipment players. It fits perfectly in the value chain. The orders being announced, the financing being locked up and the POs for equipment placed. This CY 24 one should monitor the Power EPC piece in
34th MissioN SMILE Webinar
AEGIS LOGISTICS
Fueling The India Story
To be presented by our MissioN SMILE member, Dhruv Rawani (
@dhruvrrawani
)
Saturday (Tomorrow) 6 pm
FREE for MissioN SMILE Members
Non-members may register here:
While everyone remains focused on the wind developments, this is what i am interested in. Probably the Reason why
#BEHL
and
#ISGEC
are up. Focus on profit pools.
Earning consistent profits in EPC is a difficult task. Focusing on TAM is for business leaders. As investors we also ought to focus on profits!.
@LearningEleven
@suru27
@AI_Feb21
1 unit of energy consumed saved is equal to 5 units of energy generated. As the cost of capital rises and energy demand increases. a lot more focus would be on technologies for energy efficacy
@Finstor85
#cyient
&
#schindler
are the most apparent beneficiaries here.
#Mining
... there is a lot of excitement around the rare earth metal mining. some great insights on the indian landscape as far as mining is concerned. FYI - mining of traditional ores of copper, iron coal can provide ROC of upwards of 50%. One needs to focus on the profit pool
Ferro alloy space should benefit especially the ones who have low-cost inventory of ore.
@DIALWEALTH_IN
has highlighted the case of
#IMFA
. Sandur looks another one. Any others?
#ferroyalloy
#metals
Gt this as a fwd also. This breakup is more relevant for businessmen. As an investor, i would be more focused on where the maximum profit is going to be made. Its not necessary that revenue breakup will lead to similar bottom-line.
INR 100/- on India’s energy transition capex includes:
INR 41/- going into Solar
INR 32/- going into Tranmission
INR 11/- going into Wind
INR 6/- going into Battery Storage
INR 6/- going into Pumped Storage
INR 4/- going into Electrolyser
Now you figure out where you want to
And finally the efforts start bearing fruit. Will it get the first mover advantage? Time will tell. Has the news followed the price or the other way round ?
#datacenter
@Finstor85
The below blog in BL india provides a good overview of the options of making green hydrogen a viable option. Provides a glimpse of the value chain of green hydrogen
#greenhydrogen
#investment
.
GDP is nothing but the amount of energy consumed. Any growth in GDP is not possible without having energy investments. Power forms as a subset of energy. Discussed this theme in detail with the spaces with
@AI_Feb21
The tool has been really helpful to figure out the margin of safety in company's valuation, helped me changes in balance sheet and play the operating leverage theme. Thanks
@suru27
for this. Looking forward to the updated one.
We had done 1st webinar on this tool 1.5 years back. Out of 5, 3 stocks we selected were:
💡Ion Exchange
💡HBL Power
💡Surya Roshni
Past webinar access available to all who will register. Disc: Stocks only part of case study. Not buy or sell reco
A must listne interview by SNaren. One of the points he mentioned which I resonate from in today's market is structural investing. I strongly believe that energy and energy transition in particular is a structural theme that one should study from a decadal perspective
The entire hydrocarbon ecosystem is going through a capital allocation change. As i had said in my spaces with
@AI_Feb21
focus on the entire energy ecosystem.
Attended a mining exhibition a couple of weeks back and interacted with a couple of players having products in underground mining. Given the tought ESG compliance, underground mining is the future. Only a few Indian players in this space.
@KirtanShahCFP
@Sharad9Dubey
Vijay Sharma and other PE have been categorized as public. So real retail investors which you might be referring to would be much less
One of the most neglected sector in India. Any thesis on power or renewables is incomplete without knowing the dynamics of this industry. Consider this to be sunrise industry in india. Key concern remains lack of additional refining capacity, to match with increased demand.
🚨 India announces new oil discovery in the country, 30 km off Kakinada coast in the Krishna Godavari Basin, Andhra Pradesh.
Oil Minister - "we hope to produce 45,000 barrels per day, which will be 7% of our total crude oil production and 7% of our gas production by June,2024"
@neelkanthmishra
Thank you for the wonderful presentation on india and global macros yesterday. Wanted your viewpoint on Japan risk trade. As and when interest rates rise in Japan, what happens to the yen risk capital floating around the world. Your views would be of great help.
@LearningEleven
- It seems people have forgotten the demons of the last power cycle, the high regulatory framework and the cashflow complexity of the industry.
The biggest threat to green hydrogen is blue hydrogen. The world is focused on green, but this will come out of the blue literally!!
#energytransition
#OOTT
Two ways to look at investments. Invest in copper mining. Second method would be to figure out where this copper is being utilized. A staggering 30% YoY growth in consumption.
Lot of folks have asked me about CGDs. Post this you get two very unique plays which I would be keenly tracking. A pure play gas transmission play (midstream) and the only CGD to have access to gas (upstream+downstream)
#Energy
#Gas
.
Corporate Action In Gujarat Based Gas Companies
#GSPC
,
#GSPL
and
#GEL
will merge with
#GujaratGas
Post the merger with Gujarat Gas, pure-play gas transmission unit will be carved out - GSPL Transmission
GSPL Transmission will be listed on the stock exchanges
#Gas
#Merger
Just as we track the large bank concalls for economy and consumption tracker, NTPC and Powergrid provide a broad overview of whats happening in the power space.
With the electrification of mobility, the TAM of transformer space has increased multifold. A typical 2w requires close to 5-6 transformers. We would be discussing about this in our spaces
@AI_Feb21
In this podcast where we had discussed the power space in detail, i had touched upon the fact that one needs to look at the entire energy ecosystem to get a top down view of what is happening. Looking at power in silo wont help you get the big picture.
Recording of the spaces on energy transition which we did yesterday with
@AI_Feb21
Have tried to discuss and drive home the point that the way forward for energy is going to be a multi-pronged approach given the ESG characteristics added, and the objective would be to wind down
@moatbusiness
@LearningEleven
Nava limited
Welspun corp
Techno electric
Operating leverage is the key for the first two and value unlocking is the key for the 3rd one.
Status of Flue Gas De-Sulphurisation (FGD) installation in thermal power plants
Currently, Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) is being installed in 537 units in Coal based Thermal Power Plants across the country
Read here:
With the lower domestic production, imports of LPG would increase. This benefits Logisitic players like
#Aegis
. Also need to keep a watch out for PSU petchem players who have LPG has a feedstock, are backward integrated and have close port access for exports
#CSBBank
..Closing above 316 to be a good breakout for the stock. Stock entering ATH territory. Banking sector tailwinds... RSI positve. Trading above all EMAs
@suru27
@koolvicky
@SureshKBN
In the short term there will be these cycles which will last 3-6 months. But structurally the O&G capex would be in the fast lane due to the lack of investments in last decade and more so due to the end of easy fields. So now for every drop of oil the capex will be higher.
10,000 plants across the world have to spend 300 mn each for carbon capture. This in itself is a $3trillion opportunity... Are we ready to capture this profit pool?
@datta_arvind
Its not that it doesnt like it, its more to do with the growth expectations built in. Probably market had priced a higher number in Bajaj finance valuation numbers which they will now have to rework and arrive at a new fair valuation.
@LearningEleven
Issue is the quality of meters installed till now is not up to the mark hence there is a pushback. On ground installation is far from inspiring
@LearningEleven
- It seems people have forgotten the demons of the last power cycle, the high regulatory framework and the cashflow complexity of the industry.
Waaree Energies - Unlisted price at Rs 1525/- was talked about as IPO price. It was around 250-300 early last year and was at 949 as recently as late October but once DRHP was filed, went up 60% even from that level!
Euphoria everywhere!
Biden announces $3.5B for projects nationwide to strengthen electric grid, bolster resilience . This equals to INR 6 lakh crore. Mind you this is just transmission capex. The generation capex which will come in green energy is a different set all
Policymakers and everyone in the industry realizes that reliance on thermal cannot be reduced. Thermal power remains the mainstay in India's power mix for the foreseeable future. Hence you saw a big push from India at COP26 on phasing down on coal.
An excellent discussion on EV. Thank you
@nikhilkamathcio
.. As investors helps understand the EV ecosystem in greater detail. However would have loved to hear more from
@succirao
. The good point that
@tarunsmehta
talked about is not electricity but
US fiscal support remains the primary driver for the push towards green energy. One should keenly focus on it in an election year to see which way the wind is blowing..
@SureshKBN
Middle East will play a big role in replacing China demand. L&T due to their deep efforts has a leadership role out here. Companies with focus on ME should do well going forward
@suru27
Silent and still looks good. Remeber discussing it on our group. Recently they have start gold mining in their Australia mine. Huge cash on books.
When it comes to Indian policymakers, where should they focus on when it comes to financial policy support. Hydrogen is still far away. When if you subsidize EV, what happens to the generation which is already hitting the roof? Energy transition in a capital deprived country
The 13 trn mentioned here only covers the power side of capex. You need to add two more big data points to understand the scale of the entire
#EnergyTransition
theme to be played out over the next decade
1. A similar amount of oil & gas capex.
2. Global capex which looks to be
#IDBI
good setup, low float, sector tailwind, takeover, good accumulation,. stock has not participated much PSU banking rally. CMP - 59.
@suru27
@koolvicky
@murugavell
Hey
@techno_limited
you have uploaded the presentation instead of transcript pdf for Q3 FY 2024. Request you to kindly upload the pdf transcript at the earliest.
While everyone is focusing on Renewables, the bigger capex in the entire space would be in transmission. Renew cannot be setup at the place of consumption but rather at the place of availability.. This adds to additional capex in transmission for end consumer. Firs to many such
One of the best one hour you can spend over the weekend. A rationalist explanation on the present US economy from the best of Macro.
#druckenmiller
@riteshmjn
Full Druckenmiller speech, audio recording from earlier this week.
Both his long term views and short term positioning.
About an hour.
Enjoy!
@hendry_hugh
@PauloMacro
"You can print money you can't print energy". Wow how simple but how deep is this statement. Rising interest rates and no new supply would lead to reprising of existing power assets. Focus on capex in energy
#Welcorp
is one my top bets!!
#OOTT
People think the energy crisis is just a blip in the transition to renewables, but it's not. Europe faces rapid de-industrialization & stagflation. Governments are taking over energy markets and politics is the realm of chaos. People who are in a trance need to snap out of it.
The way forward for energy independence and green energy wont have just one winner, but a lot of them eating up the pie away from fossil fuels. More about this in greater detail with in spaces with
@AI_Feb21
.
In the current energy transition the world would want to unite and leverage their strengths and pull up their resources where ever possible. This is one of the global opportunities in which Indian companies will get to participate in.