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x-Prosecutor, Legal Aid, CNN/Crystal Ball/Bulwark, cited by Wash. Post. Write at Polls:
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This is VERY good news Joseph Biden.
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Updated - missed this morning in the Siena noise is an IBD/TIPP AZ poll showing a tie. The battleground polling average - which is the MOST predictive metric of the national race - shows Harris running .39% ahead of '20, and projects a Harris national lead of 4.79%.
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@ForecasterEnten
This is not true.
Harris is running ahead of Biden's numbers in 2020 and well ahead of the Dem's numbers i 2022.
Comparing Exit polls to pre-election polling is comparing apples to oranges.
Note Ipsos found NO difference yesterday.
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If you want to understand why GA still matters look at the 2024 Senate map which has three incumbents in tough races: Tester, Manchin and Brown. It will be a lot easier to win 2 of those races than all three.
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@Heminator
"And the mayor and no one else in town could stop them from doing this because only the cops were allowed to determine what was legal."
This is wrong. Congress could pass a rule overturning the administrative rule. Congress gave the grant of authority to begin with.
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@SimoneGiertz
Riding on the metro in Paris today. Across from me is a very sad young woman: the sort of sadness that comes from fresh disappointment. I tell my wife about this girl I follow on twitter who is recovering - and the girl's face lights up - "you follow her too?". "She is better?
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I have made this point over and over - but here it is in the data. When undecideds were pushed, Bidens wins 82% of D's and 57% of Indy's. 18% of Blacks/Hispanics are undecided - when pushed Biden wins 70%+. 26% of those under 30 are undecided - Biden wins 60% of that vote.
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I started tracking polling 20 years ago because of comments like this - which are just basically not true.
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@billscher
LOL.
Her favorables are 20% in Arizona.
Your defense of her has been pretty funny.
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Harris is now running ahead of Biden's 20 numbers among African Americans - and well ahead of the D's '22 numbers.
There is NO reason to believe she will not do as least as well among African Americans as D's did in '20 or '22. (Either you can poll blacks or you can't)
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Florida has been consigned to equivalent of Siberia on the floor of the Convention.
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This is my town: we started knocking on doors in May convinced that personal persuasion was powerful. We knocked on these doors for 10 months, and the staff and volunteers were committed and worked like hell. We got 308 votes. Politics will break your heart.
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This is nuts. Biden is TIED.
Pre-debate polls:
'76 Ford trailed 52-39 in ABC, 47-34 in NYT
'80 Carter trailed 45-42 in Gallup, 42-36 in NBC
'92 Bush trailed by 13 in ABC, 12 in CBS
'20 Trump trailed by 7 in 9 polls taken 5 days before
Four incumbent presidents have trailed going into the first presidential debate in the average of polls. All four lost that November. Not great history for Biden.
Probably a big reason he wants the debate earlier. Try and change the dynamic as early as possible & upset history.
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@SimonWDC
@TomBevanRCP
@SeanTrende
The non-partisan pollster average was incredibly accurate. It had only 1 miss: NV (and that will be less than half a percent).
The story isn't polls were wrong.
The story is right-wing polls were wrong. Which many of us saw coming, and which RCP treated with derision.
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This is nonsense. Marquette had Biden up 4 and is not included in the average. Emerson was 51-49 yet they use a different number. The inclusion of Rasmussen is indefensible.
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It's incredible. If ABC and NBC are right this will be the best showing for an in-power party since 2002.
You would never know this from most of the news media - the lack of context is astounding.
Hey, don't want to interrupt my Democratic friends when they're engaged in their favorite sports of The Gnashing of Teeth and The Tearing of Garments, but it looks as if the Democratic Party will have the best midterm performance by a party in the White House in two decades.
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Susquehanna - Harris leads by EIGHT among those with an excellent chance of voting. More data suggesting Trump has an enthusiasm issue.
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GRRR.
The polling in '22 missed enormously among African Americans and the average is now is pretty close to what polling found in '22.
Trump has doubled his support among Black voters from this point four years ago. If his support held, it'd be the best GOP performance since Richard Nixon in 1960 among Black voters....
Trump's doing it thanks to pulling in a quarter of Black voters under 50.
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What is amazing in this discussion is NO ONE asks if the '24 polling is unusual, or if polling understated D performance in '22. I can post this chart 100 times - at this point it is comical. None of these so call experts actually look at the fricken history.
Democrats are quite rapidly losing support among Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters in polls and at least some recent election results.
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Insider Advantage: Murray +2
Trafalgar: Murray +.8.
Hysterical.
Murray's 57%-43% lead matches the primary vote exactly
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Big picture: 81 counties are in. Turnout in Blue counties is about 1.3% higher versus November than in Red Counties. Warnock is outperforming his November number in blue counties. Walker is basically matching his numbers in the red counties. Maybe means Warnock +2.5?
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The reporting on the NY Governor's race is basically a repeat of the California recall election.
Hochul holds a 7.3 pt lead in the poll avg. Siena has her up 11. If that qualifies as "up for grabs" and a "red tide", then I look forward to the NYT reporting on the "blue wave" in OK, IA, FL, GA, OH, and NC, where GOPs are all facing narrower polling leads than Hochul.
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Buried in the Cygnal Ohio poll: Biden's approval rating is substantially higher among those who always vote versus those who seldom vote. This is consistent with the CO Marist poll today and the recent YouGov polling.
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Updated. Harris is running on average .4% ahead of Biden in battleground states. I will update this twice a day for the rest of the way - and will introduce my model on Friday. Make no mistake - Harris is the favorite. But MAN is this close.
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A significant story in the data is the divergence in state and national polling on blacks. State polls usually have significantly larger samples, and I trust that data a good deal more. In state polling, Harris is running ahead of Biden among blacks in '20 and close to Clinton.
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This stuff drives me nuts - but its how narratives are created. Saying Biden trails IS NOT ACCURATE - the race is in my average is inside of a point.
NONE of these comparisons are close to relevant.
It's bad history, bad data, and bad analysis.
Four incumbent presidents have trailed going into the first presidential debate in the average of polls. All four lost that November. Not great history for Biden.
Probably a big reason he wants the debate earlier. Try and change the dynamic as early as possible & upset history.
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@NateSilver538
This is such a bad take: did Barack Obama position himself as more moderate than Clinton in 2008???
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After a disastrous debate, an assassination attempt, and the Republican National Convention, Harris is higher than Biden's best number in 18 months+.
CNN found a 3 point shift after reconnecting with previous poll participants.
Something very big may be in process.
NEW: In our first daily tracking survey of the Harris-Trump race, the VP leads by 1 point, 46% to 45%.
Her share of support is higher than Biden has garnered all cycle, going all the way back to late 2022.
Read more here:
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This is the most important piece of data from the Siena poll. 28% say they need to know more about Harris, and 10% say that about Trump. That includes 41% of blacks, 43% of Hispanics, and 53% of those under 30. The debate is her opportunity to lock down these groups.
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About the Seina poll - it has Trump + 1, 48-47. That is a 5.4 shift from 2020 - Siena's state polling since 8/1 found an average shift to Trump of .86, which implies a Harris lead of 3.5%. You can square the Siena national polling with Siena's state polling.
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Fulton at 22%. At 9:30 on election night Fulton was at 1%. This is a VERY different pattern in the reporting of results.
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From my piece at Bleeding Heartland - if you think right-wing polls are flooding the zone and changing polling averages - you are right.
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National Polling 40 - 25 days out. Only ONE leader at this point in the popular vote went on to lose the popular vote - George Bush in 2000 - who led by .02. I have Harris up by 3.6% nationally at this point. Her lead is larger than Obama's in '12.
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I will never forget talking to someone with the Pappas campaign in NH-1 on election night. They absolutely thought they were going to lose - the internal D polling was not very good.
I’ve long wondered what exactly went on with John Fetterman’s internal polling and what it showed.
@danielmarans
had an interesting article here suggesting that Fetterman’s own polling showed him down at the end. Not sure even they expected a 5 point win.
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Flooding the zone works. Both Silver and 538 are actually including Trump's polls in their calculations.
The idea you can correct for this is nonsense.
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The nonsense being repeated about the African American vote is indefensible. Since 8/13 Harris has been running AHEAD of Biden's pre-election polling among African Americans in 2020 and WAY ahead of D performance in 2022. This becomes REALLY clear when you look at the states.
New Interview: I talked to Dave Wasserman about the race for Congress, how to assess Donald Trump’s support among nonwhite voters, and why elections analysts love to look for lessons in Washington state’s recently concluded primary.
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The most interesting poll of the weekend (FL-13). It's an old district, 56% are over 55. A whopping 71% say they are going to vote by mail. Biden leads by 14. Clinton won it by 3, Obama by 12. This is a REALLY good result for Biden.
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It is worth taking a step back and thinking about this (I agree with the ratings). Two states that were absolutely competitive in '16 and '20 do not have competitive Governor's races at a time when inflation is at generational highs. It is pretty incredible.
Michigan Governor and Pennsylvania Governor have just been upgraded from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
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Here we go again - the same pollsters who flooded this zone in '22 are back in '24. Rasmussen/Trafalgar should go directly to the trash, and InsiderAdvtange is no better. Be VERY wary of averages that include polls from these groups.
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I posted the data from polls in NV and AZ in my piece at Crystal Ball. There was NEVER compelling data to support a significant shift among Hispanics. The pieces that did were horribly cherry-picked.
We won’t really know until we can get a precinct level analysis but certainly the results suggest Rs at best made incremental gains w non-FL Latinos. There was way too much hype on this storyline based off v small sample sizes in polls.
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This is about my 500th post on why Democrats need to be worried about minority turnout.
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This is not true.
I love the number of white guys (and I am one) talking about the black vote on TV as an aside.
No matter how you splice the data, Trump seems to be the strongest Republican with Black voters since 1960. Young Black men in particular have trended right during Trump's runs (cutting the Dem margin by 40 pts from 2012).
But Trump's doing historically well with Black women too
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A Harris win of 6-7 is as likely as winning by 2. A 6 point win absolutely put FL in play and the down ballot implications in TX would be fascinating.
New national NBC News poll: A double-digit rise in popularity and an early edge in better representing 'change' have vaulted Harris forward to a 5pt lead over Trump, 49% to 44%.
This is our first poll since mid-July, when Trump led Biden by 2pts, 45% to 43%
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I went in detail about this with Lakshya Jain in '22 and boy are they back at it. InsiderAdvantage/Tragalgar/Rasmussen are flooding the zone again.
ignore trafalgar polls. they are totally biased and wrong. they were wrong across the board in 2022. and in 2020, trafalgar had Trump winning MI, PA, GA, and NV. Biden won all of them.
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The state of play in the Electoral College. For the first time Harris has a margin of more than 1% in states required to win 270 electoral votes. DO NOT OVERREACT TO ONE POLL. The battleground average implies a Harris lead of 4.1% nationally.
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There is, of course, a sinister side to all of this. If the non-partisan polls are right and Harris wins, the inclusion of right wing polls in averages will be used as grounds for overturning the election. Something Nate and 538 are oblivious to.
Flooding the zone works. Both Silver and 538 are actually including Trump's polls in their calculations.
The idea you can correct for this is nonsense.
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Love
@SteveKornacki
But in 2020 Biden won by 4.4% and the D's lost the generic popular vote by about 1.5% (depending on the calculation) - for a shift of 5.9%. Relative to the national environment Walz outperformed pretty substantially in '22.
Kornacki savages Walz’s margins in small town MN:
"This is where Dems have lost ground and Walz, in 2022, he didn’t gain any ground.”
"The idea that he’s got this automatic appeal with these small town areas ... you don’t see it in what he actually did on the ballot.”
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Emerson has 2 numbers - a normal trial heat and a second where they push undecideds. In their polling this am, this is how the undecided split:
FL Harris 2.3 Trump 1.6
OH Harris 1.7 Trump 1
TX Harris 1.8 Trump .9
Undecideds in this morning's Emerson polling break 2-1 for Harris.
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Here is my take:
1. There has been no movement since August 10. This becomes clear when you compare results from the same pollster over time.
2. Most movement in averages is based on which pollsters are included.
3. Harris has narrow - but solid - leads in WI/PA/MI.
My take this am:
- Harris has steady 2-3-4 pt natl lead
- She's closer to 270 in the battlegrounds, better liked
- Early vote in battlegrounds encouraging
- Our financial/field advantages make it more likely we move election towards us
It's close, but much rather be us than them
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It is difficult for the politically engaged to understand that most people don't know Harris very well. The debate is an enormous opportunity for her - and an enormous risk as well.
This is the most important piece of data from the Siena poll. 28% say they need to know more about Harris, and 10% say that about Trump. That includes 41% of blacks, 43% of Hispanics, and 53% of those under 30. The debate is her opportunity to lock down these groups.
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Trump's own pollster finds PA tied. Nothing tells you more about the true state of the race than that the Trump camp wanted to release a poll that is tied. My guess is they know he is behind there.
Smells a little like Trump panic honestly.
New poll by Fabrizio Lee & Associates in PA for
@EarlyVoteAction
PAC shows Trump and Harris tied 48-48, and 45-45 when a third party candidate is introduced:
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Battleground polling - '12 - 22. An average of non-partisan pollsters predicted EVERY battleground Senate race correctly. The ONLY miss in competitive races was AZ Gov - where the average was -.25. Junk conservative polling distorted reporting horribly before the '22 election.
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The moving average did not move. It hasn't moved in nearly 2 months. This screams to me a replay of '20.
But that makes for boring punditry.
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Glengarrif has tended to lean right in prior years.
Harris +3 is very close to the '20 result.
Shockingly.
A new Michigan poll, for Detroit News:
Harris leads 47% to 44%.
Trendline: Trump was up 45/44 in August; Harris was up 42/41 in July; Trump was up over Biden 47/39 in January.
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National Polling - man was that Atlas poll an outlier. 40 polls - only 1 showing a Trump lead.
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MC found small movement back to Biden (-2 to -1) after the assassination attempt. Insider advantage (who had a terrible '22) now has Biden down 3 44-47 in Georgia. It's an astonishing result - and this quote from the pollster has to give Dems some hope about GA.
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TWO very good pollsters, Marist and Siena find OH tied. Looking at the cross tabs there is a substantial group of independents that don't like Biden or Trump. This was the group that swung the election in '16 - right now Ryan is ahead or even among them.
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Average Generic Ballot and Presidential Polling averages back to '94. On average the Generic Ballot polling in a midterm's misses by over 3 points. An average miss has enormous consequences in a country as closely divided as the US. We know far less about Tuesday than we think.
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If you see a poll suggesting a significant change from the last 3 elections, question the poll.
'12🔵Obama 51🔴Romney 47
'16🔵Clinton 48🔴Trump 46
'20🔵 Biden 51 🔴 Trump 46.8
18-29
' 12 🔵Obama 60🔴Romney 37
' 16 🔵Clinton 58🔴Trump 28
'20 🔵Biden 59🔴Trump 35
'22 🔵 63 🔴35
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Harris will take this trade. No pollster has seen as large a gap between AZ/GA and the Midwest as Siena.
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Among Black LV Harris leads 93-7.
Identical to the margin Pew found in their 2020 validated voter exit poll, and 3 points higher than Catalyst found.
ABC IPSOS poll
RV
Harris 50, Trump 46 (D+4)
LV
Harris 52, Trump 46 (D+6)
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In historical terms, the shift from the first post-debate is one of the smaller in modern political history.
We now have 12 polls partially post-debate, and 10 conducted entirely post-debate. Biden trails Trump by 3.1% in polls wholly conducted post debate, for a margin shift of 1.8%. You can quibble some here - but the # of polls gives a good picture of the state of the race.
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In 2019 my wife and I attended a small event with Harris. My wife does not like politics and politicians. But after the event she turned to me and said she is REALLY likable.
This is not 2016.
Net Favorables On October 4:
Obama (2012): +5.4%
Clinton (2016): -10.5%
Biden (2020): +2.7%
Harris (Today): +0.8%
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@melnickjeffrey1
I once read a recommendation from a Brit academic - the strongest thing in it was "She is sound".
Another Brit read it and described the review as glowing.
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Perceptions of the Ohio and Pennsylvania Senate races are being enormously effect by right-wing polls. The last 3 neutral polls in Ohio are tied, Vance +2 and Vance +1.
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The MI UMASS poll. There is in this data the suggestion that right now the R's have an enthusiasm problem. I would love to see an x-tab of pro-choice Republicans here. It is also a warning because data showed this in '16 and '20 and closed late. See also the Selzer IA poll.
This is from the UMASS-Lowell PA poll. D's happier than R's with their choice, in general an electorate that does not hate the choice.
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Like watching paint dry - though you would never know it on Twitter. Race has been stable for 2 months.
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Absolutely brutal numbers from Quinnipiac. No one has seen movement in this direction since 9/16. The MI poll is way too the right. ONE POLL from a suspect pollster.
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Biden dropped out at 2:00 PM 7/21. At that moment all of his delegates WERE UNDECLARED. 32 hours later Harris had enough delegates to win the nomination, which makes this the shortest presidential nomination contest in US history. Remember - every delegate was free.
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A nominee has months to plan their acceptance speech. Harris has had a month. This is a serious accomplishment tonight.
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No state was more effected by Biden's withdrawal more than Georgia. And nowhere has Siena been more off than GA. I take the average of the LV/RV margin - and Siena has been an entire standard deviation from the mean. There is good argument Harris is ahead in GA.
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The key point to remember: with inflation over 8% the Democrats PICK UP a seat by winning seats that were very close in 2020. This is a historic accomplishment - which most of the press completely missed.
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Make what of this what you will, but this is the best week of approval polling for Biden in over a year, in part it is driven by LV vrs. RV.
Yougov: LV 🔵49 🔴50, RV 🔵47 🔴49, Adults 🔵43🔴 49
Morning Consult LV 46 🔵53 🔴, RV🔵 42 🔴56
Insider Advantage LV only 46 🔵 55 🔴
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We have the first county to flip: Baldwin goes from .5 Walker to .25 Warnock, on turnout of 91.1% of November.
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The first rule of politics - you can tell you are drawing blood by the other side's reaction.
Trump distances himself from Project 2025. Comes as Dems increasingly try to focus attention on Trump policy agenda.
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Post-debate polls drive the narrative about the debate itself. They are important because they drive coverage for days. For this reason, debate bounces increase 3-5 days after the debate. This was the case with the first debate.
Gentle reminder that post-debate snap polls are good for clicks and views, but are almost entirely unscientific and at most should be interpreted directionally.
We’ll have a better sense of the true impact of the debate in about a week or so.
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I keep waiting for the polls to flip to the GOP as they did in '14 - and maybe this is why it won't happen. Biden is at 47-52 among likely voters as opposed to 41-50 with all adults. Compare the 47 approval to the 43 strongly disapprove which has been important in the past.
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I have seen the same thing in the Emerson polling on issues and in NH polling as well. Immigration is a base GOP concern - among indies, it barely registers. The GOP is in many ways running the wrong campaign.
This is the WI Marquette poll.
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More to say about this - but the state polling never saw the dip the national polling did post-debate. State and national polling have converged.
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Updated - AZ is now inside the average error. Harris has +1.5 leads in the Blue Wall, NC is tossup. Make no mistake Harris is the favorite here.
7 new polls from BSG/Cook Reports. The average swing from 2020 is Harris +.1, It's the first lead for Harris in AZ in a while.
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I have until October 30th to get an only partially effective vaccination shot or I will be fired.
Of course, this happens every year - flu shots are required for employment at the hospital where I work.
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This isn't right. Senate D's are running well ahead of Biden and have been for months.
Downballot effects of a Biden loss are clear for Democrats. The House would likely be gone. GOP has opened up an edge on the generic ballot.
If Biden loses, the chance of Democrats holding the Senate is close to zero because of the map and WV being an easy GOP pickup.
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Steve Schale, the best D strategist on Florida there is, once wrote friends do not let friends quote Quinnipiac. Their record in '16, '18 and '20 was abysmal. No one else is seeing the movement Q has seen. Toss them in the average - but always be skeptical.
Quinnipiac Poll: Trump Pulls Ahead In Presidential Race --
Trump 49%, Biden 45%
Trump 43%, Biden 37%, RFK Jr. 11%
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From my piece at
@LauraRBelin
. Polling has consistently understated the Democratic margin among African Americans, but polling in '22 was particularly bad.
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A good result for Harris - Oz carried this district by 1, Trump by 4 51-47. This is NINE point shift from '20.
In Pa’s hotly contested 10th Congressional District, our poll out later today shows Harris leading Trump in this GOP-leaning district 46:41. Trump won this district +4 in ‘20. This is not a good trajectory for GOP incumbent Con. Scott Perry. More tweets to follow shortly.
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@ForecasterEnten
The polling in '22 missed massively among African Americans and is very similar to the polling now.
Please do better research - there are very good reasons to think polling among African Americans is broken.
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Selzer warned she thought Haley would underperform her numbers.
She was right.
Results compared to Ann Selzer poll
Trump +3
DeSantis +5
Haley -1
Ramaswamy =
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The big story of this race - despite all you read - is how stable it is. On August 12th the state polling implied national lead hit 3.81%. Since that time there have been 295 state polls I have included in this moving average - and the state average HAS NOT MOVED.
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This is the first cycle where I have actually seen pushback against RCP from pundits. RCP has no methodology and no transparency. I have a lot of respect for some of the writers there - but they have hidden from criticism for too long.
RCP is simply a component of the R messaging machine, no more no less
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Can someone explain why Cook is not in the RCP MI average?
Nah, don't bother, I know why.
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@byHeatherLong
@CoreyBCantor
This is not true. The OLAF taxpayer money in.
By the way you do realize that the fees on banks are paid by bank customers, right?
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I cited InsideAdvantage yesterday - but it is hard to overestimate how bad they were in 2022. The WA poll in particular was awful, but they missed outside the MOE everywhere.
Can someone explain to me how Black voters, who were 29% of the electorate in Georgia in 2000, were only 2% of the respondents in this poll?
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@DemFromCT
@NateSilver538
Here's a radical idea: Democrats like Berne and Clinton. The "Base" sees less conflict than pundits do and people on twitter do.
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Take a moment to stop and think about what has been accomplished. A sitting president withdrew 31 hours ago - and in that time $250 million has been raised and individually elected Democratic Delegates have decided to support Harris.
I have never seen anything like it.
Total as of this moment: 1,397.
Texas is on the phone - word is the entire delegation will vote for her, which nets another 231. MA (91) has a call tonight, NJ (125) had a call this afternoon (no news). That nets another 448, and gives Harris 1,845 - 130 delegates short.
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