David Henkes
@davidhenkes
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Global food/beverage industry trendwatcher, consultant, & connoisseur. Senior Principal @Technomic . Named 1 of top #restaurant / #food industry experts to follow
South of the Cheddar Curtain
Joined April 2009
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Pinned Tweet
Today is 28 years since I started at
@Technomic
. A huge thank you to all colleagues, current and past, that have made this the best job in the world.
Today is now 27 years since I started
@Technomic
. I've watched this organization grow from a small
#foodservice
research consultancy with 35 people to now being part of a global organization with
@InformaConnect
. Very proud of what I've been a part of and what's still to come.
5
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1/
Out of personal and professional curiosity, I took a trip out to suburban
#Chicago
today to check out
@McDonalds
new concept
@cosmcs
.
A short thread on my experience.
#QSR
#beverage
17
26
246
Establishing proof of concept for a
#virtual
branded
#restaurant
is key here, but the celebrity nature of Youtube star
@MrBeastYT
helps too.
Why MrBeast Burger is the most important restaurant concept in the U.S. right now
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3
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Somewhat of a career milestone for me today: 25 year anniversary of my first day
@Technomic
. What a great ride it's been!
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10/
Overall, I remain convinced that CosMc’s is an incubator and laboratory for McDonald’s to try new food/beverage items that will ultimately work their way into their more traditional system. It’s a unique concept but the big win will be innovating for their 13k locations, not
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Cola wars could have turned out much different.
In 1989, PepsiCo technically possessed the world's sixth-largest naval fleet for a brief moment.
In a strange deal, Russia sold Pepsi 17 submarines, a frigate, a cruiser, and a destroyer to maintain the flow of Pepsi soda into the country.
However, the vessels were
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We’ve reached peak innovation in the beverage category apparently.
7-Eleven will be introducing a hot dog flavored sparkling water.
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I'm sure all the best steakhouses will start microwaving their high end cuts of beef after this report.
Steaks cooked in the microwave are better, says scientist: ‘The ideal way’
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In China, Pizza Hut has some interesting menu innovation - their new Bao Pizza Burgers feature some interesting beef and chicken builds and use fresh pizza dough as the bun.
Not only is the carrier innovative, but the fresh baking for a bun is highly differentiated for a chain
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#Restaurants
typically run on mid-single digit margins. Taken another way, these small biz owners work 11+ months to pay workers, rent, etc, & earn their income in that 12th month. Missing 1 month means no income for the year; the 2nd mo (& beyond) of no revenue is devastating
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8/
A couple of the items I tried could definitely fit within a traditional McDonald’s. The savory hashbrowns with spicy queso were delicious as was the spicy queso egg sandwich.
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Today is now 27 years since I started
@Technomic
. I've watched this organization grow from a small
#foodservice
research consultancy with 35 people to now being part of a global organization with
@InformaConnect
. Very proud of what I've been a part of and what's still to come.
Somewhat of a career milestone for me today: 25 year anniversary of my first day
@Technomic
. What a great ride it's been!
8
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Oprah Winfrey is about to get into the
#restaurant
biz with an investment in True Food Kitchen This chain grew 47% last year and is poised for continued expansion.
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Restaurant technology is great….until it isn’t.
McDonald’s is experiencing a global system outage that’s left customers unable to order at stores, electronic kiosks or mobile apps via
@technology
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Came across these words of wisdom today from Anthony Bourdain about the value of working in
#restaurants
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5/
The ordering process is traditional drive-thru with human on the other side. Much of the wait comes from them holding cars at the drive-thru menu board until the order is ready - (the former crew chief in me recognizes it’s to avoid parking cars to wait on their order )
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Chicken wars 2020: this data from
@Technomic
shows the growth trajectory of major
#chicken
#QSR
concepts. Popeye's has had a good run in the past year, but Chick-fil-A has been consistent in putting up big growth numbers
#restaurant
#fastfood
$RBI
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As someone who logged a lot of flight miles pre-pandemic, it feels a bit surreal to be back
@fly2ohare
and traveling again. Hopefully the start of a return to some sense of normalcy and better things ahead.
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Truth! Where does our youth go!
“You wake up one day and suddenly realize that your youth is behind you, even though you’re still young at heart.”
-
@jonimitchell
, who turns 80 today 💕
“Both Sides, Now” (1968)
@DannyDeraney
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Very honored to named as 1 of the 50 best
#restaurant
#experts
and chefs to follow in 2018 Thanks
@toasttab
!
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Sandwichpedia
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Family was craving
@raisingcanes
so we went inside for
#takeout
. Always gratifying to see our
@technomic
data being promoted inside the
#restaurant
.
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6/
Once the order is placed, they direct you to a specific window with an order number. Pretty good system
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Pizza Hut acknowledges its brand overhaul and "Flavors of Now" campaign has missed the mark
http://t.co/8UdD8sRyPt
Not easy for big chain
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My job often has some awesome perks, and I was thrilled to have had the chance to meet
@GuyFieri
at the Winsight
#RestaurantDirections
conference last week.
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Long time
#foodservice
&
#restaurant
clients know that
@technomic
has been the source of reliable industry data since 1966.
We found one of our old reports from 1982 that had our industry “wallchart” in it. Consumers spent $149B away from home that year (2022 it was $$955B)
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(Side note - it’s right next to a traditional McDonalds that had no wait in the drive-thru). People were obviously deliberately choosing CosMcs.
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First thing is that 2.5 months after opening, there is still a wait. I thought a Sunday afternoon would be slow (and maybe it was) but the 4 drive-thru lanes had a 45-50 minute line snaking back thru the strip mall parking lot.
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Going back to 1921, White Castle Has Sold Over 29 Billion Sliders. A crazy number of
#burgers
#restaurant
#QSR
#fastfood
via
@QSRmagazine
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Winsight holiday party and the ugly holiday sweater contest with
@jonathanmaze
and
@ChrisKeatingWS
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Great example of how unmanned retail (
#micromarkets
) are helping
#hotels
expand sales beyond the lobby pantry. (Seen at the
@technomic
#planningprogram
event at the Intercontinental in
#Chicago
)
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We
@Technomic
have looked at the top 100
#restaurant
chains. While still preliminary, these operators are forecasted to show a cumulative sales decline of almost 11% in 2020, resulting in a loss of over $29B in sales
Note comparison to total expected restaurant decline of -21%
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Not sure the methodology to get to these but if true it shows the extreme price inflation seen in QSR.
Price increases over last decade...
McDonald's: +100%
Popeyes: +86%
Taco Bell: +81%
Chipotle: +75%
Jimmy John's: +62%
Arby's: +55%
Burger King: +55%
Chick-fil-A: +55%
Wendy's: +55%
Panera: +54%
Subway: +39%
Starbucks: +39%
US Government Reported Inflation (CPI): +31%
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As
#restaurants
struggle,
#foodservice
#distributors
face their own challenges. Thanks
@JonathanMaze
for including me in the article.
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In Germany,
@McDonalds
is sharing its employees with Aldi to help alleviate employee shortages in the
#supermarket
(H/T
@aaronjourden
)
Mitarbeiter helfen im Supermarkt
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Had a great time presenting on
#foodservice
trends at
#VizientSummit21
. I had the unenviable position of following Marcus Samuelsson, (
@MarcusCooks
) who did a phenomenal cooking demo and Q&A with the audience.
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In the realm of discontinued
@McDonalds
burgers, this is second only to the McDLT.
#restaurant
#burger
#QSR
#fastfood
$MCD
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Strange not to be at this in person but as usual
@Bordbia
have organised a great
#foodservice20
seminar.
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We
@Technomic
have been tracking the
#restaurant
chain market going back to at least 1970. We've just released our eagerly awaited report with annualized 2023 chain data, and I wanted to share some insights into the current state of the chain restaurant market.
1/
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Tweeted this earlier but re-upping. This is a survival playbook from a
#restaurant
group in
#HongKong
. As pessimism rises abt the future of
#restaurants
, if they can survive
#COVID19
in Asia, it bodes well for the industry around the world. Worth a read
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Beverages were well-executed as well. I ordered green tea, lemonade and a berry hibiscus sour-ade.
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A thread on the plight of
#restaurants
(focused on sit-down locations). In our last study, ~11% of those
#restaurant
sales came from "off-premise" (inc delivery/takeout). For many shifting on the fly to keep their biz going, that small portion of sales now is 100% of revenue.
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Governor Cuomo in
#NY
just now said
#bars
and
#restaurants
can sell
#alcohol
for
#takeout
and
#delivery
. Nice concession to the industry and one that may mean survival for many. Something to watch to see if that stays in place after the
#coronavirus
catastrophe is over.
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I'm honored to be a part of this "definitive" list of
#restaurant
experts to follow on
#Twitter
in 2019. Thanks
@ToastTab
for including me!
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.
@Technomic
is now part of
@InformaConnect
, and today we had the annual Connect Awards ceremony. I was delighted to be a co-host for the event, highlighting the achievements of the entire business around the world.
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Love how it's just a keg of
#beer
being wheeled through the cabin.
TIL: In the 1960s Lufthansa served draft beer on board
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A month ago we were getting questions about ghost kitchens (aka virtual kitchens/delivery kitchens/etc) and how "delivery only" would work for these types of operations. Today, pretty much every
#restaurant
in the US is this type of kitchen.
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I was beyond delighted to meet
@ElizabethBanks
after
#VIBEConference
today (she’s the Chief Creative Officer for Archer Roose
#wine
in addition to everything else) and she could not have been nicer. Big emphasis for Archer Roose in the on-premise with focus on
#sustainability
.
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7/
I ordered 3 drinks for my family and some sandwiches. From time of ordering (not counting the wait) it was 6 minutes. Not horrible once you get up to the window.
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Fast food is generally considered "quick service" (QSR) whereas Chipotle and Five Guys are more upscale, so they sit in a slightly different bucket called Fast Casual. Both fast food/QSR and fast casual sit in a broader bucket called Limited Service Restaurants.
Thanks for
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Hate to see good breweries and restaurants close but I’ve said countless times that it’s harder than ever to stay in business these days.
Metropolitan Brewing Closing For Good After Nearly 15 Years
#restaurant
#brewery
#beer
#Chicago
via
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Came across this quote from Anthony Bourdain today and it resonated especially strongly. A good reminder of the power of
#restaurants
and the need to be good to yourself and those around you.
0
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Gotta love Wisconsin
#breweries
. Sure there are
#beer
flights but the sausage flight is totally on brand for a Wisconsin
#brewer
.
@lakefront
#beer
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4
14
As I've reflected more on the
@Cosmcs
concept that
@McDonalds
is opening outside
#Chicago
, the more I like the idea.
A short thread on what I see as the ultimate goal here and what they get out of it.
1/11
#Cosmcs
$MCD
#restaurant
#QSR
#fastfood
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Excitement and buzz over the new
@McDonalds
concept - CosMcs - has gone mainstream, with coverage by the Today Show.
Is McDonald’s opening a coffee shop chain called CosMc’s?
(Nice job BTW
@jonathanmaze
!)
#restaurant
#concept
#QSR
#fastfood
$MCD
via
1
4
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Excited to have
@NatlRestShow
back in person this weekend here in
#Chicaogo
. It's been a long 3 years since the last one, and thrilled for my WInsight colleagues who are back to doing what they do best. If you're headed over hope to see you there.
#restaurant
#2022RestaurantShow
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First day of
#2023RestaurantShow
. Look forward to meeting old friends and new connections; stop by our
@technomic
booth at 6001.
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I want to acknowledge the 55th anniversary of the founding of
@Technomic
, and a shout-out to our founder, Ron Paul. Ron was a true pioneer, and we were the 1st to offer
#foodservice
research. Going forward, we'll continue that vision to be the go-to leader in data and insights
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McDonalds CEO famously said that the ROI on automation didn't really pencil out. That was 18 months ago; labor is15+% more expensive today.
Kempczinski is changing his tune on automation and thinks the calculus is evolving.
#restaurant
#labor
#ROI
$MCD
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One underrated joy in life is sitting at the counter of a really good diner.
#restaurant
#diner
#alldaybreakfast
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Love seeing these global innovations in
#pizza
(in this case
#Japan
); very different than what these
#QSR
#restaurant
chains are doing here in the US.
(H/T
@thatbilloakley
)
Dominos Pizza Japan continues to terrorize the country with kaiju-style pie mutations. The latest affront: the Cheese Volcano Pizza, which ups the cheese factor with a literal crater of cheddar cheese sauce in the middle. It’s available here until February 18th.
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I spent the day in downtown
#Chicago
, working in the
@technomic
HQ. Felt great to be in the office, but the whole city still feels like a ghosttown.
#QSRs
are mostly open, sitdown
#restaurants
mostly closed & very little foot traffic. Think it will take quite a while to return
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Lots of inquiries about
@McDonalds
& their fresh beef announcement. Important to note that they had a pretty good 2017, growing 3.1% last year. This translates to $1.1 billion in new sales, which is more than the combined dollar growth of all other
#burger
chains in the top 500
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Seen on a
@UWMadison
parent page - I’ve never quite seen this type of bundled meal before but given the audience it probably sells like crazy.
#beer
#steak
#mealkits
#college
#wisconsin
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What a great day for us
@Technomic
when the CEO of the biggest
#casualdining
player in the country acknowledges our industry-leading data and insights for the
#restaurant
industry.
(thanks
@jonathanmaze
for the tip).
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.
@Technomic
has just released updated forecasts for the
#restaurant
and
#foodservice
industry for 2021 and beyond. Lot of details in our report, but our middle case growth expectation for consumer spend is 18.5% for the industry and 17.2% for restaurants and bars.
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4/
A big part of the wait seems to be a speed of service challenge. My wait encompassed maybe 30 cars in front of me, which is roughly 1 car served every minute. The check average per car must be larger than normal, but a quick and convenient solution it is not.
1
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Enjoying watching my
@technomic
colleagues along with senior execs from
@WhiteCastle
and
@Bokagrp
discuss key
#restaurant
trends at
#2023RestaurantShow
1
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12
1/ Last week I put a thread out about the performance of the Top 1,500
#restaurant
chains. Today, our
@Technomic
much-anticipated top 500 chain report was issued, & it's worth digging a bit into the biggest of the chain market. The details are here:
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Hooters, the described "happiest accident in restaurant history"
was started by 6 friends with no restaurant experience.
In 1983, on April Fools Day.
They've now been winging it for 40 YEARS.
And they grossed $860M in 2022 🧵
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Delighted to speak at
#foodservice18
this year. Thanks as always to
@BordBia
for the opportunity to speak to the industry.
Consumer demands such as health, sustainability and technology are all issues affecting the foodservice sector according to
@davidhenkes
#Foodservice18
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I've been watching the return of Stuckey's and wish
@StuckeyStop
much success as she works to revitalize her family legacy.
Stuckey’s, the once-beloved road trip staple, tries to stage a comeback
#restaurant
#retro
#restaurantsurvival
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Really interesting view into running a
#restaurant
at an airport.
Here is everything you ever wanted to know about trying to get a business into an airport & all the hell that comes along w/ it:
Corruption & Bureaucracy:
I've been shaken down a time or two, but no other experience was even remotely close to this one.
During the 2nd meeting,
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This global McDonald’s conference is on my bucket list!
Last day of worldwide.
The restaurant peaked at abt 4,000 transactions per hour (each transaction usually was one of each item). Well done to our international crew. They even came around the counter and sang for us.
🇬🇧 McCrispy BBQ - I prefer our McCrispy version vs the UK
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Had to come into downtown
#Chicago
today and went looking for lunch. So many city center
#restaurants
closed. Certainly a reality for cities across the globe but heartbreaking to see the on-the-ground reality here.
1
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We’ve been honored to partner with
@Bordbia
for 10 years conducting
#foodservice
research in Ireland; I’m here presenting at their must-attend conference today to a packed house of industry executives.
#foodservice23
Technomic’s
@davidhenkes
marks their 10th year working with Bord Bia on the Foodservice Market Insights report with a Foodservice Market Update – highlighting a record spend level of €9.3 billion turnover in Ireland in 2023.
#Foodservice23
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The
#restaurant
industry is a landing place for many
#veterans
after their service.
Happy
#VeteransDay
!
With over 250,000
#veterans
working in the restaurant industry, we wanted to take a moment to thank you all for your service.
Our appreciation for you is deep and our admiration for you is even deeper. Happy
#VeteransDay
! 🇺🇸
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In
#Dublin
for a
#foodservice
industry conference this week. I always try to stop by one of my favorites -
@TheBrazenHead_
- the oldest pub in Dublin, for a pint and a bite to eat.
2
1
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They've (rightfully) been described as a
#tech
firm selling
#pizza
. That's an incredible percentage coming through digital.
#restaurant
#QSR
#delivery
$DPZ
Missed this on Domino's: It now gets nearly 75% of its orders through digital channels. $DPZ
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1
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11
Has the
#pumpkin
flavor trend gone too far or are we just throwing pumpkin in anything and everything nowadays?
@mcdonalds
in
#France
is offering pumpkin ketchup.
(H/T my
@technomic
colleague Aaron Jourden)
#QSR
#restaurant
$MCD
4
6
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My son and his friends have a music group that creates some really awesome original R&B/funk/hip hop; they just released a new song and thought I’d share with my wider audience. Have a listen!
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@davidhenkes
Congrats David! Toast named you one of the best restaurant industry experts to follow in 2017!
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Enjoyed presenting key trends to watch in the food industry for 2022 and beyond at the Chicagoland Food & Beverage Network (
@chgofood
) event tonight. Hybrid event but nice to be presenting to a (partially) live audience!
#food
#foodservice
#foodservice
#retail
#restaurant
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Congrats
@TheWienerCircle
for the highest of hot dog honors.
@TheWienerCircle
is a destination for anyone looking for a delicious meal with an edge. Known for having the sassiest staff on the North Side, there's never a dull moment at this 40-year-old stand. Stop in any time, day or night, for a meal and an experience to remember.
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Are you confused on what
#trends
you need to keep up with in the
#restaurant
industry?
@davidhenkes
makes it easy for you AND he made our top 2018 list of
#experts
to follow.
@technomic
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"Pre-pandemic, there were too many
#restaurants
chasing too few consumer dollars." We've been on a course correction that likely would have happened anyway, but it's tough running a restaurant right now.
Thanks
@CNN
for including me in this article
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30% of consumers don’t want to pay any type of service fee at a full service
#restaurant
@technomic
#2023RestaurantShow
5
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3rd party delivery fail. Ordered from a local
#restaurant
tonight. Order showed up real quick, like 20 min.
2 hours later I got the same order delivered again. But only charged 1x. Feel for the operator that just increased his food costs, and not sure how the drivers get paid.
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This is 100% me:
#coffee
drinkers who prefer straight back drip coffee increasingly frustrated waiting to get their drinks behind all the “specialty” drinks that are the norm at coffee shops nowadays.
5
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I’ve done a lot of work in
#vending
over the years but i don’t recall ever seeing a
#champagne
vending machine. Nice job Moet & Chandon!
#NYC
0
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Interesting thread for young men just starting out on their own.
I did an AMA on Instagram today and the same idea kept coming up in various forms:
What advice do you have for a guy in his 20s?
Here are 9 things young men should do if they want to give themselves the best chance of getting ahead.
These also work for women.
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My
@technomic
colleague Melissa Wilson and I after presenting on trends in family dining at
#Flavor2018
. Changing definition of family and more sophisticated kids means big changes for how
#restaurants
target families.
0
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Europe is way ahead in all things plant-based. Still, I had always thought fries were already "veggie" but now
@McDonalds
is testing beet, parnsip and carrot fries in
#France
.
The irony that a new French fry is being tested in France is not lost on me, BTW.
#restaurant
#QSR
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It's very unlikely that these prices will deflate back to pre-pandemic levels. There's a new cost basis for
#restaurants
, & any inflation moving forward starts from this new plateau. Huge implications for both operators and consumers in 2024 and beyond.
7/END
#realityreset
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