Trained meteorologist. Weather info for the Denver metro area and Colorado. Previously worked at NOAA's CPC &
@capitalweather
. Psychotherapist by day. 🏳️🌈
Not remotely surprised at the. consternation regarding the [lack of] snow this morning in
#Denver
. Anyone who thinks this is a "bust" due to current conditions, please check back in with me in 12 hours and reserve further judgement until then.
#COwx
#weather
It's rather difficult to conceptualize how brutally cold this is, but wind chills will be in the -25°F to -45°F range by 11pm Wednesday night across the greater
#Denver
metro area.
#COwx
#weather
It's my meteorological duty to inform you that
#Denver
is now less than 12 weeks out from its *average* first
#snow
of the season -- October 18. You're welcome ;-)
#COwx
#weather
“If you choose not to find joy in the
#snow
, you will have less joy in your life but still have the same amount of snow.” — Unknown
#COwx
#Denver
#weather
(CC
@denversnow
.) Note, video taken a few hours ago…
Per latest forecast discussion from
@NWSBoulder
: "over the past few hours, model guidance has spit out about as many different solutions as there are items on a Cheesecake Factory menu..." ;-)
#COwx
#Denver
#weather
#snow
I don't normally talk about this, but I have been sober for nearly 10 years, and the fact that I do not use alcohol makes winter storm forecasting (and managing associated emotions) far *easier*.
#soberlife
#COwx
It’s my meteorological duty to inform you that
#Denver
is now less than 12 weeks out from its average first accumulating
#snow
of the season — October 18th.
#COwx
#weather
The Denver Coliseum will be opened as a 24-hour warming shelter on Wednesday. Temps/wind chills during the upcoming Arctic blast *could* be unsurvivable in certain situations. Please look out for those less fortunate than you.
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
I'm issuing a Greeley Smell Watch for the next 12 hours across the greater
#Denver
metro area. Those of you who have lived here long enough know precisely what I'm talking about ;-)
#COwx
#weather
(CC
@MileHighBrendan
)
Latest HRRR suggests that
#Denver
will have ~4-8" of
#snow
by 5pm Saturday (at left). By 5pm Sunday (at right) it's showing totals in the ~14-20" range.
#COwx
#weather
I want to join the chorus of folks giving kudos to
@NWSBoulder
. You all have done an incredible job over the past (*very* challenging) 24+ hours, not that I'm at all surprised! We are very grateful for you. Thank you.
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
My hunch is that
#Denver
(
@DENAirport
) will briefly hit or exceed 50°F for a high Wednesday (~1-2pm?) before crashing to below 0°F by around 9pm and to -5 to -10°F by 12am Thursday. It's *almost* surreal to type this, even though we've seen it coming for days.
#COwx
#weather
Per
@NWSBoulder
's afternoon forecast discussion: "If everything comes together, there is a remote chance that DIA ties or breaks the December record low temperature of -25°F set way back in December of 1876" Thursday morning.
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
You know it's March in
#Denver
when the forecast is for possible thunderstorms turning to heavy, wet
#snow
and on the order of 10-20"+ across the next day and a half. [Left: 0z HRRR for 7pm Wednesday evening; Right: NDFD total snow forecast.]
#COwx
#weather
Per latest forecast discussion from
@NWSBoulder
: "It is still too early for very specific snowfall
estimates, but [models] seem to be converging around a...forecast for widespread snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 feet, and locally heavier amounts."
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
Per
@NWSBoulder
: "Some high resolution models are producing extreme rainfall values in excess of 7" of rain within a 36hr period. These may be on the high side of what will actually occur but it would not be completely shocking if a report or two came in with these values."
#COwx
I am concerned it will be a long evening of active to severe weather across the greater
#Denver
metro area, with high res models keying in on the ~8pm-12am period. Very large hail and isolated tornadoes possible along with significant rainfall. Please stay
#weather
aware!
#COwx
The potential for >6" of
#snow
for
#Denver
metro ~Thursday of this coming week appears to be fairly high given lead time. Most global models indicate threat of heavy
#snow
. We *should* have somewhat more clarity by Monday or Tuesday.
#COwx
#weather
I know some folks have expressed concern about rain tonight eating into
#snow
totals, but in my experience >90% of the time, changeover to snow happens earlier than models indicate because of challenges fully grasping strength of evaporative cooling.
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
Odds of a 4-8"+
#snow
for the greater
#Denver
metro for late Tuesday into Wednesday are fairly high per current modeling as well as
@CIPSAnalogs
analog-based forecast (pictured).
#COwx
#weather
The 'normal' high for the date on December 1st in
#Denver
is 47°F. Today's record-tying high of 73° was 26° above normal. November was a whopping 6.8° above normal overall...and we're 10 days past our latest ever first
#snow
of the season. THIS IS NOT OKAY.
#COwx
#weather
0z HRRR. Notice that the difference between <2" (west of downtown
#Denver
) and ~8"(near DIA) is only ~40 miles from west to east, and that this extremely tight gradient is nearly overtop Denver proper. Continues to be a challenging forecast...
#COwx
#weather
#snow
It is my meteorological duty to inform you that
#Denver
is now less than 8 weeks out from its *average* first
#snow
of the season — October 18.
(Boy, I’m gonna be popular today 😜)
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
(
@DENAirport
) reporting 33°F with a rain/
#snow
mix at 10am. The wind chill is 23° courtesy north winds at 16mph. Oh, and yesterday's high was 93°; Sunday's was 97°; Saturday's was 101°.
#COwx
#weather
*If* you are in a place of privilege, please be mindful of the more vulnerable and/or less fortunate members of your community -- elderly neighbors, the unhoused, pets, etc. -- as
#Denver
metro contends with the coldest
#weather
in 30+ years by late tomorrow.
#COwx
#Denver
**feels** more than 70°F colder than it did just 4 hours ago. At 2:03pm, we hit 51°F; by 6pm, the wind chill is -19°F (with an air temp of -1°F). As such, we feel 70°F colder than 4 hours ago.
#COwx
#weather
If you can believe it,
@NWSBoulder
believes the chance of >18" of
#snow
falling with this storm is as follows:
Denver ~1/3 chance (32%)
Boulder ~1/2 chance (48%)
Castle Rock ~3/4 chance (76%)
Colorado Springs ~1/3 chance (30%)
#COwx
#Denver
#Boulder
#weather
There is something substantially apocalyptic (feeling) about the fact that it's Sept 6 and
#Denver
hit 101° yesterday, has reached the mid-to-upper 90s today with heavy
#smoke
from nearby wild fires...and we're under a Winter Storm Watch effective late Monday.
#COwx
#weather
Observed on the left, forecast from Friday morning on the right. Despite what all the haters say, this was a very well forecast event. Every forecaster
@NWSBoulder
deserves a free six-pack of beer! 🍻
#cowx
0z ECMWF and 0z GFS v16 look awfully similar with overall total forecast
#snow
amounts. Lends confidence to overall forecast. In short, ~12-24" still(!) likely in
#Denver
-- mainly later Saturday into Sunday. Snow-lovers: breathe. And with that, goodnight!
#COwx
#weather
Just measured 8.2” of fresh
#snow
in SE Aurora (~1mi from Tower & Hampden). Icicles a plenty, to boot, with a current temp of 20°F.
#COwx
#Denver
#weather
I'd like to preempt those (non-meteorologist) folks who like to declare a forecast "bust" practically as soon as
#snow
has started. There will be only minor accumulations during the day today. Heaviest holds off til tonight/overnight into Monday.
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
#Denver
has multiple chances for accumulating
#snow
over the next 7-10 days, with the most significant event (and highest potential for accumulation) most likely late Tuesday into Wednesday. Details will become somewhat clearer over next 24-48 hours...
#COwx
#weather
At 4pm,
#Denver
(
@DENAirport
) is reporting 34°F with light
#snow
and a wind chill of 24°F. At the same time yesterday, it was 85°, so we're 51° colder and *feel* 61° colder than 24 hours ago.
#COwx
#weather
Greeley, CO dropped 24°F in one hour -- from 65° at 1pm to 41° at 2pm -- as the cold front pushed through.
#Denver
only an hour or two behind this. Cheyenne, WY is currently 26°F (with a wind chill of 11°!)
#COwx
#WYwx
#weather
It’s 4pm and
#Denver
is currently still in 3rd place for all major global cities in terms of worst air quality scores today — courtesy copious smoke from Canadian wildfires being displaced southwards.
#COwx
#weather
...when even the positive snow depth change map from the 18z HRRR (which is considerably less bullish than 10:1 SLR maps because of taking into account some melting & compaction, etc.) shows >12"
#snow
for much of
#Denver
metro.
#COwx
#weather
Per today's afternoon forecast discussion from
@NWSBoulder
: "The first real chance for accumulating snowfall across the I-25 corridor and plains will come late Thursday and into Friday
morning."
#COwx
#Denver
#weather
#snow
First call forecast for
#snow
this weekend with our approaching storm system for
#Denver
is 8-16"; while there is significant upside potential >16", there are still a lot of questions about warm air intrusion, track, liquid:snow ratios, etc.
#COwx
#weather
July & August are the only 2 months during which
#Denver
has never seen accumulating snow. But this much snow this late in May is rare. Per
@BianchiWeather
this is only 7th time on record since 1882 that Denver has seen >1" of snow this late in the season.
#COwx
#weather
Today's official high in
#Denver
(
@DENAirport
) was 49°F. What is shocking is that just 22 miles to the southwest (as the crow files), Centennial (KAPA) hit a high of 70°F! That's effectively a 1°F per mile temperature gradient. Wow!
#COwx
#weather
Our late Tuesday into Wednesday system is *feeling* like ~2-5" on the east side of town -- including KDEN (
@DENAirport
) -- and ~4-9" on the west side of town type of event to me. Latest NBM (shown) is rather illustrative of this.
#COwx
#Denver
#weather
At 8pm,
#Denver
(
@DENAirport
) is reporting 32°F with moderate to heavy
#snow
, and visibility down to just 0.25mi, with 100% humidity. The wind chill is 27° with north winds at 5pm.
#COwx
#weather
FLASH:
#Denver
has been upgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-6" of
#snow
by Tuesday morning. By my count, this is the second upward revision to forecast snowfall amounts
@NWSBoulder
has made in the past ~90mins.
#COwx
#weather
Can confirm extensive mild to moderate damage to exterior vinyl siding that will require an insurance claim and a fair bit of work to take care of due to golf ball+ size hail at our place in SE Aurora this afternoon. Hopefully no damage to solar panels.
#COwx
#Denver
#weather
Eating crow today -- if you saw my tweet from last night. This system definitely over-performed my expectations for
#Denver
, and I'm always transparent about my meteorological transgressions ;-)
#COwx
#weather
#snow
I’m eye-balling about 2” of fresh
#snow
here in SE Aurora (~1mi from Tower & Hampden). Just 15°F (with a wind chill of 8°F) and a few lingering flurries as of 7:20am.
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
It's getting increasingly hard to *accurately* measure due to blowing and drifting, but it looks like I just eclipsed 12" of
#snow
on the west side of
#Denver
near Sloan's Lake as of ~12:30pm on 3/14.
#COwx
#weather
Reasonably strong signal, at least from this many days out, for a *potentially* significant winter storm for
#Denver
metro by late Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Stay tuned...
#COwx
#weather
We're now well <24 hours out and modeling is still a hot f-ing mess for
#snow
for
#Denver
FRI into SAT. Objectively poor model consistency and run-to-run stability nearly across the board. Areas west & south of town still favored vs areas north & east, however...
#COwx
#weather
If I'm being 100% transparent, I think more folks across
#Denver
metro will end up with 4-8" out of this event than the going NWS forecast of 6-14". In about 24 hours, we'll see how this hunch verifies.
#COwx
#weather
Per the afternoon forecast discussion from
@NWSBoulder
: "Despite some of the wild gyrations we've seen in model guidance, the overall plan with this storm is still the same. In fact, the latest EC and GEM ensemble data suggest...slightly higher totals than previous runs."
#COwx
#Denver
metro will probably see its first *widespread* readings well down into mid 40s (or cooler) for AM lows by early next week, should current guidance hold. Stay tuned...
#COwx
#weather
Just two days from now (Aug 3),
#Denver
's *average* high temperature starts its seasonal decline once again...and on Aug 5 our *average* overnight low temperature starts dropping too. Whoo hoo!
#COwx
#weather
It is my meteorological duty to report that
#Denver
is now technically less than one month away from our *average* first measurable
#snow
of the season -- October 18. Sorry/not sorry ;-)
#COwx
#weather
This *feels* like a widespread ~4-8"
#snow
for
#Denver
for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Still some lingering questions on exact track, but personally I'm feeling increasingly confident many see >4".
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
's next shot at
#snow
is this coming Sunday/Monday. From *this* vantage point, temperatures look marginal and it does not look like an especially impactful system.
#COwx
#weather
Nothing has changed in my thinking since earlier today and I’m still calling for 8-16” for
#Denver
with the *potential* for more in some spots. 2nd call forecast, which <<may>> remain the same as my 1st call, will come out tomorrow.
#COwx
#weather
Now we're talking. 5pm 3/13/21: I've got moderate to heavy wet snow and finally down to 32°F on the west side of
#Denver
near Sloan's Lake. (Dew point = 29°.) Snow is now sticking on some paved surfaces; had only been sticking to colder surfaces earlier today.
#COwx
#weather
For the record, I'd be pretty surprised if
#Denver
*doesn't* hit 100°F on Sunday. In my experience, temperatures almost always "bust high" in Denver ahead of a cold front as strong as the one we're to encounter early next week. (Record is 97° from 2013.)
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
hasn't had a single day in September with below normal temperatures. Of the past 15 days (including today): 12/15 featured above normal temps; 3/15 featured 'normal' temps; 0/15 featured below normal temps. We're currently +5.1°F month-to-date.
#COwx
#weather
On a day where
#Denver
will again be ~100°F for a high, it’s my meteorological duty to inform you that we are exactly 12 weeks out from the *average* first measurable snow of the season -- October 19. You're welcome 😜.
#COwx
#weather
National Blend of Models (NBM) shows the potential for plenty of beneficial rain over the next 84 hours across much of Colorado (other than the extreme SE corner of the state). For
#Denver
, this is Wednesday into Thursday.
#COwx
#weather
It's now looking somewhere between possible and probable that
#Denver
metro could see up to several inches of
#snow
from late Thursday into Saturday with our next storm system. More to follow...
#COwx
#weather
...and, as
@BianchiWeather
has been aptly messaging for several days now, both *no snow* and >6" for
#Denver
proper -- in theory -- are still *possible* outcomes...though we should have a much better handle on that in the next 12-24 hours.
#COwx
#weather
#snow
Pretty grim when current temperatures are running 5-9°F warmer than the same time yesterday -- when highs ended up in the upper 90s.
#COwx
#Denver
#weather
For the record, I don't think rain is going to be an issue on Saturday with this system, as has been suggested by some models and some forecasters. Low-level cold will win out except for far eastern Plains.
#COwx
#Denver
#weather
Friday
#snow
in
#Denver
now starting to look more like 2-4”+, which is an increase from ~1-3” yesterday and *may* increase further into more like the 3-6”+ range as ensemble models suggesting a slower, deeper scenario vs ~24 hours ago.
#COwx
#weather
Just so you're aware...12z ECMWF model produces a *high* temp of -5°F; overnight low of -22°F for
#Denver
next Saturday 2/13. Valentine's Day: High of -3°F; low of -24°F. Monday 2/15: High of -8°F; low of -12°F.
#COwx
#weather
#Denver
(
@DENAirport
) has officially hit at least 50°F for a high today, with that as the reported temperature as of 1pm. Latest guidance suggests temps will crash to ~5°F by 6pm and to near -5°F by 9pm -- *without* accounting for wind chills -- at DIA.
#COwx
#weather
It is my meteorological duty to inform you that
#Denver
is just 8 weeks out from its average first snowfall of the season — Oct 19! Depending on your persuasion: I’m sorry/you’re welcome 😜
#COwx
#weather
At 3pm, I'm *just* shy of 16" of
#snow
on the west side of
#Denver
near Sloan's Lake. Drifts >2ft in places. It is blustery with low visibility, and 30.9°F at present.
#COwx
#weather
It would not shock me if
#Denver
makes a run for 70°F tomorrow ahead of our blizzard for WED --> THU; not uncommon for temps to bust high ahead of a strong storm system such as this; (models forecasting low 60s.)
#COwx
#weather
Note that
@NWSCPC
sees an enhanced likelihood of below normal temperatures *and* above normal precipitation in the 6-10 day (Oct 29 through Nov 2) for most of
#COwx
. When both of these align this time of year, it generally portends
#snow
.
#Denver
#weather
It's my meteorological duty to report that
#Denver
is technically now less than one month away from our *average* first measurable
#snow
of the season -- October 18. Sorry/not sorry 🤪
#COwx
#weather