Max Bay
@choice_fielder
Followers
5,108
Following
3,284
Media
2,315
Statuses
22,988
data science mercenary • weird about baseball • made stuff+ (on FG) • formerly @astros r&d • neuroscience PhD @usc • dad bod (likely related to being a dad)
Joined July 2019
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Hamas
• 897593 Tweets
Netanyahu
• 364754 Tweets
#MaduroSecuestraNiños
• 146970 Tweets
River
• 127886 Tweets
#NXTNoMercy
• 76582 Tweets
ESPN
• 70738 Tweets
YouTube TV
• 59604 Tweets
Dinamarca
• 45117 Tweets
#خلصوا_مع_جالينو
• 32117 Tweets
Giulia
• 30271 Tweets
Falcao
• 23006 Tweets
DirecTV
• 18163 Tweets
Q33 U STEAL MY HEART
• 17758 Tweets
Clooney
• 17400 Tweets
Roxanne
• 14832 Tweets
MIX師
• 13740 Tweets
Lacy
• 10269 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Here’s my public baseball GitHub
When I do release things, I’m going to try to make all code available, where possible.
1
3
54
Baseball is the only sport where the impossible can actually happen
47
903
3K
Bob Nightengale could reverse jinx homelessness and poverty out of existence but instead he fixed Cody Bellinger.
Struggling Cody Bellinger is hitting 8th tonight in the
#Dodgers
lineup. He has a slash line of .165/.262/.284 this season with 55 strikeouts in 176 at-bats.
115
50
973
19
82
814
BREAKING: The surprise guest is on a private jet to Toronto
4
49
779
3
45
377
The last player to hit 30 homers for the Giants was Barry Bonds. The Giants have won three World Series since then. What’s this say about stacking a lineup with power hitters, if it says anything?
60
25
404
18
23
361
Some personal news…
April was my last month with the Astros. For now, I’m moving to a role outside of baseball. Working with this team of exceptional individuals has been an extraordinary experience. I’m so grateful to have played my small part in the org and winning a WS.
36
8
360
The Braves have won Game 5!
9
55
307
Extremely funny to me that the Rockies have no idea what a trade deadline is.
8
19
301
Unless he extends, we only have two more seasons of Clayton Kershaw. I cannot even imagine the Dodgers without him. Gonna savor every start from greatest pitcher of my lifetime.
10
14
277
The Mets released Travis d'Arnaud on May 3rd 2019. They've since accumulated 2.9 fWAR over that span at the catcher spot over 1,315 PA.
Since May 4th 2019, Travis d'Arnaud has accumulated 3.5 fWAR over 662 PA.
8
22
257
Buehler’s problem is that he knows he can’t dominate with raw stuff anymore but instead of developing an approach that’s optimized for the stuff he does have (which is more than serviceable) he just has no approach at all.
14
13
209
Kershaw carried the entire team for years and years and years. He gave us everything and owes us nothing. I will forever stan Kershaw.
“To put it bluntly... Post season - if I pitched better, we would be winning” - Clayton Kershaw
12
10
161
10
34
201
Brett Gardner is the only active major leaguer who was on the 1919 Yankees.
3
20
199
There’s something very funny about sending a scouts to watch Max Scherzer. What exactly are you expecting to learn that you didn’t learn over his previous 2,400 major league innings? He’s literally on TV.
15
5
170
Since reading
@enosarris
' article about MLB deadening the ball in 2021, I've done some work exploring who this (likely) impacts the most. I won't bury the lede by describing the method up front, let's start with the juicy stuff: From left to right, the 30 greatest HR reductions.
10
19
135
You want a pitcher to target the corners with their fastball right? The difference between the corner and 6" off the plate is ~0.5 degrees.
Incredible that these guys can command the ball at all.
3
20
131
Oh you think the televised strike zone is bad? It just makes people angry over artificial precision, you say? Have you considered that being mad at fake things is what baseball is all about?
9
8
127
Corey Seager is going to be scary good in spring training and a beast in 2020.
12
6
119
The 2021 Giants are the most unlikely team ever. Sim out that season a million times and I'm not sure you'll ever get a sim where the entire roster produces like that.
4
6
117
It gets worse. If you add up the records of all 30 teams, the record is exactly .500. It works every year. Thanks to MLB, baseball is just a zero sum game now.
If you add the records of these 14 teams you get a combined record of 169-169. The "M" in MLB stands for "mediocrity."
6
1
3
5
4
112
Pujols is going to Cooperstown with a Dodgers hat on send tweet
12
3
111
Absolutely remarkable that between two offseasons, Cleveland traded Kluber, Bauer, Carasco and Clevinger. That’s an all-star rotation.
6
3
105
Lux has not given the Dodgers a good reason to start him. The underlying batter ball data don’t indicate much power or good contact. I still think there’s potential but Trea Turner is a genuine superstar. In 2022 they’ll probably have the DH in the NL to sort out the infield.
6
6
102
Andrew Friedman is on his burner, scrolling through twitter, just laughing his ass off right now.
3
7
100
Barnes didn’t do anything flashy in the series clincher, but his contributions were huge:
-Called the entire game across 7 different pitchers allowing 1 run
-Framed up 16 strikeouts
-Hit the ball off Snell that took him out of the game
-Scored the first run on the wild pitch
1
10
99
Location+ is a results-independent model evaluating the quality of pitch location. It's a good proxy for command. Here are the Location+ leaders among starters in 2021:
1. José Urquidy
2. Julio Urías
3. Kyle Hendricks
4. Brandon Woodruff
5. Zach Eflin
7
12
97
If it makes you feel better, just remember that Cody Bellinger has no idea that anything is happening.
2
7
94
Pollock is giving the middle finger to everyone on Dodgers twitter.
10
2
90
I’m at the Dodger game with my dad. We did this. You’re welcome.
10
1
94
Spent way too long making this Joey Votto OBP tribute
Number above Votto's head is the OBP percentile ranking for a given year
1
5
93
@jonbecker_
@camarcano
He didn’t mean this but score is generally treated as extraneous and independent in model design so he’s accidentally completely right on some level.
2
0
94
It's clear that Ray is being coached to throw over the plate more, command be damned. Here's his zone% by count across seasons. First pitch strike rate is way up. It's also up in 2 strike counts, which he now gets to more easily. With BB down, home runs won't cause as much damage
Robbie Ray has 33 strikeouts and 1 walk in his last four starts. He easily led MLB with 45 walks in 2020. This feels substantial.
43
36
2K
6
11
87
Our society is simply unequipped to communicate or understand conditional probabilities.
Breaking News: The Delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox and may be spread by vaccinated people as easily as the unvaccinated, an internal C.D.C. report said.
2K
6K
9K
9
7
87
@cmgdrama
@MLB
@Dodgers
@Nationals
Do you get your baseball information from the garbage or from a compost heap?
1
0
87
To the “Dodger fans” who burned Kershaw’s jersey, GFY. We don’t want you.
1
12
78
Why are the Dodgers underperforming this seaso…. oh…
4
10
84
Respectfully, the claim about ABS zone evaluation score being worse than the lowest scoring umpire is incorrect.
With Rob Manfred eyeing spring training for robot umpire testing, we asked former MLB umpire Joe West for his thoughts. Is this the right move for the league?
13
6
153
6
2
85
I am pro pimping home runs, but not because I love home run pimping (even though I do). I'm pro pimping home runs because I'm pro emotional baseball. That means I'm pro chirping. I'm pro shit talking. I'm pro whatever makes baseball more fun.
0
9
79
I am truly fascinated by the Dodgers signing Pujols. Is it a partial mentorship/clubhouse presence role? Are they letting him chase counting stats? Where is he even going to play? This decision broke my brain and I love it.
13
4
75
The answer is ~4 degrees. So if you drew a circle laterally around a pitcher's hand at release, just about every pitch ever is thrown within a 4 degree window.
What about the inner 50% of pitches? It's ~1 degree.
What arc length do you think covers 99% of horizontal release angles for average pitcher? What about vertical release angles?
1
0
5
2
10
81
“A triple shy of the cycle” is the “Pennsylvania Ave. McDonald’s Monopoly sticker” of baseball
5
8
79
I strongly agree with this. Games that go to extras have the distinct feeling of being almost a literal coin flip (even if extra inning games have always been close to coin flips even). There needs to be a concerted effort to get rid of the zombie runner. It really sucks.
The ghost runner is the worst thing to happen to modern baseball and it needs to be taken away immediately
348
245
4K
12
1
75
Remember these guys? They're the marquee players from the 2007 Dodgers, which was 13 years ago.
This should put into perspective just how long Mookie Betts will be a Dodger.
11
11
74
End of an era in Chicago, man. Rizzo was the face of that core, imo.
4
1
74
👀
9
0
74
My suggestion is to always assume that Jomboy has done little or no research or fact finding before he posts things. Assume that on things he posts going forward and assume that on things he's posted historically.
7
2
68
Best pitches since August 1st by Pitching+ (min 50 pitches)
1. Charlie Morton - Curveball (131 Pitching+)
2. Tyler Rogers - Slider (128)
3. Eli Morgan - Changeup (127)
4. Aaron Bummer - Slider (126)
5. Alex Vesia - 4S (124)
2
7
66
Julio Urías has 179.1 IP this season, 100 more than he’s ever thrown. He’s tired, as evidenced by ever-declining fastball velocity. The Dodgers have the luxury of starting their game 5 hours after the Giants. If the Giants win (and clinch the division), they should rest Julio.
4
9
70
Seems kinda weird to spend literally any money on a billboard that taunts fans over a trade they definitely didn’t want and definitely didn’t have any control over.
9
4
70
Mitch White's run-converted Pitching+ gives him an expected ERA of 3.24. You need roughly 400-500 pitches before the model is reasonably predictive, which we had even without data from tonight's appearance. Literally all of his pitches are above average by Stuff+.
3
4
71
Barrels are basically batted balls which have a high probability of becoming extra-base hits. The exact definition can be seen as this cone-shaped sub-region of EV LA space. Instead of discretizing BBEs into barrels, I estimated the XBH probability of each BBE with a GAM.
5
6
68
Georgia, pleeeeease turn Dodger blue like you did in the NLCS
6
9
67
There is absolutely nothing different about how Bickford is pitching now. He was lucky for a long time and has been a little unlucky lately. Average it out and you have a solid reliever. Dodgers added a nice piece to the bullpen off waivers, which is awesome for him and them.
0
2
70
A curveball is sometimes basically a slider which is sometimes basically a cutter which is sometimes basically a four-seam fastball with a little cutting action so at the end of the day a curveball is a fastball send tweet.
2
2
71
Unfucking real. I cannot believe that Mookie Betts is a real person and a real person that is a Dodger.
1
2
63
By mandating a 6 IP minimum, the league would be imposing a desirable game aesthetic through brute force. But this comes at the cost of another aesthetic: manager strategy. Part of the fan experience is actively anticipating/entertaining possible outcomes and decisions. 1/2
7
4
68
@spencerwhite_2
@DecisionDeskHQ
Which one of the lawsuits that hasn’t already been thrown out are you referring to?
2
0
60