Chin Hui Leong
@chin_investor
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Investor | Co-founder, The Smart Investor | Formerly @themotleyfool | Daddy
Singapore
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A collection of my articles on Singapore’s financial newspaper, the Business Times.
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In theory, it sounds easy to buy a stock and do nothing.
My latest article on Singapore's business newspaper, the Business Times.
But in reality, many investors lose their nerve and sell too soon, before the stock reaches its full potential.
That’s a painful mistake.
It’s
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Warren Buffett once said that “margin of safety” has been the bedrock of his investing success for decades.
My latest article on Singapore's financial newspaper, the Business Times.
In investing, margin of safety is about leaving room for error because you never know what will
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Journalling is one of the most underrated ways of becoming a successful investor.
My latest article on Singapore's financial newspaper, the Business Times.
Documenting your investment moves sounds simple but it is far more important than you think.
As humans, we tend to
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In my book, the best returns come from owning stocks for the long term.
My latest article on Singapore's financial newspaper, the Business Times.
The key ingredient is time.
But the trick is knowing what shares to hold.
Ideally, the business behind the stock should exhibit
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Happy world book day!
What’s a book that changed the way you think or invest?
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When a stock falls significantly, most investors will assume they overpaid for the stock.
Yet, it is not always the case.
My latest article on Singapore's financial newspaper, the Business Times.
When your stock falls by 50 per cent, it needs to gain 100 per cent to break
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The road to investing wisdom begins with ‘I don’t know’
My latest article on Singapore's business newspaper, the Business Times.
MANY people think that investors fail because they do not know enough.
I beg to differ.
In my experience, it is our ego that blinds us and makes
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DIVERSIFICATION is good or bad for you, depending on whom you ask.
My latest article on Singapore’s business newspaper, the Business Times.
Warren Buffett once said that if you know what you’re doing, it makes little sense to diversify.
But Peter Lynch had a different
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Investing for the long term is more than just buy and hold.
It's a mindset.
My latest take on investing for Singapore's financial newspaper, the Business Times.
Thinking long-term compels you to pick businesses that can last the test of time.
Thinking long-term term is
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Today is the 15th-year anniversary of holding shares of $CMG, my fourth-longest holding and a 29-bagger.
Not bad for a restaurant my Singaporean investor friends call Mexican cai p'ng (that's economy rice in the local kopitiams).
#caipng
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TRILLION-DOLLAR stocks are a rare breed.
At the moment, there are only six listed US companies that make the cut, namely $AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN, $META, $MSFT and $NVDA.
My latest article on Singapore's financial newspaper, the Business Times.
I count myself as fortunate to own
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$ASML is a US$260 billion company today.
But it is far from an overnight success.
The company's key product, the EUV system, took almost 20 years to develop; it took a village to get it done, every step of the way. 🧵
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$MSFT co-founder Bill Gates and $BRK's Warren Buffett were once asked, separately, to write down a single word that accounted for their success.
Interestingly, both of them came up with the same word: focus.
My latest article for Singapore's business newspaper, the Business
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"In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
So ... I’ve been buying American stocks."
@WarrenBuffett
, 16 October 2008
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A friend: Should I go for Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM featuring
@WarrenBuffett
in Omaha?
Immediate answer: Yes!
#allin
#investing
#investment
Long BRK.B since 2011.
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Me in 2005-ish: this "investing" thing is easy.
I read a book about Warren Buffett, there were step-by-step instructions on what companies to buy and how to value them.
I can do the math. Easy peasy ... right?
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Outfoxed by the stock market: Telling Numbers and Statistics for 2024 and beyond
My latest article on Singapore's financial newspaper, the Business Times.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
And yet, as Mark Twain once said: “History never repeats itself, but
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My favourite Seth Klarman passage on arrogance and humility.
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It's been a wild ride, $ATVI
+ Bought on 5 May 2009 @ $11.02, around 2 months after GFC bottom
+ Stock went nowhere for around 4 years
+ Took off after buyout of Vivendi
+ CAGR around 16% per year over 14.2 years.
It's not always linear but it worked out just fine.
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5
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How fear swindles investors today
Peter Lynch said you can be the world’s greatest expert in financial statements but without a strong stomach, you will sell in panic.
It's not the lack of know-how that is stopping investors, it's FEAR.
Time for a 🧵
h/t Beating the Street
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Buy stocks because you want to own them, not because their share price is falling.
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Change your perspective.
Where adults see a policeman saying STOP, my daughter sees an opportunity for a high five.
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The best companies have not one but multiple moats.
It gets even better if these moats are interlocked with each other, reinforcing one another as the business grows.
Exhibit A: $AMZN
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What I learnt from
@DavidGFool
Volume
#1
Happy belated birthday, David!
Will start with 6 lessons, a numerical tribute to the 6 signs of Rule Breakers (RB).
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A dividend after almost 14 years of holding $BKNG.
Yield on cost is 17.5%.
Bought after the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull erupted and grounded air travel (sir, there are still trains in Europe).
Booking Holdings $BKNG initiates its first ever quarterly dividend of $8.75/share
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$META's WhatsApp Flows = next revenue stream?
"You can use Flows to book appointments, browse products, collect customer feedback, get new sales leads, or anything else where structured communication is more natural or comfortable for your customers."
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$META
“In October 2022, we reported that there were more than 140 billion Reels plays across Facebook and Instagram every day.
And in the last six months, reshares of Reels have more than doubled.”
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1. Cloud Intelligence Group
2. Taobao-Tmall
3. Cainiao
4. Local Services group
5. Global Digital Business Group
6. Digital Media and Entertainment Group.
$BABA
Alibaba to split into 6 units that may pursue IPOs:
"Each business group and company can pursue independent fundraising and IPOs when they are ready" - $BABA Chairman Daniel Zhang Yong
+6% pre-market
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Rick Guerin, $BRK third ex-partner, on the late Charlie Munger paying more than needed.
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Ever have friends ask you to teach them about investing?
In the past, I'd offer them a list of books to read.
However, I suspected they probably wouldn't, which is a shame.
So, why not try an article instead?
This is the topic for my latest piece in Singapore's financial
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My latest article on
@BusinessTimes
.
I have owned shares of
@IntuitiveSurg
for over a decade (10x).
Here are 10 things I learnt:
#ISRG
#stocks
#investing
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"If you wait for the robins, spring will be over"
@WarrenBuffett
wrote an op-ed below during the GFC.
The title?
Buy American, I am.
The date?
17 October 2008.
What happened next?
S&P500 fell another 28% before bottoming out on 9 March 2009.
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It's a good time to remind investors that $AAPL's first iPhone had a rather disastrous start.
2007 Jan: iPhone announcement
2007 Jun: Two iPhone models (8GB, 4GB) go on sale
2007 Sept: 4GB discontinued. 8GB model retail price lowered from $599 to $399 (a 33% price cut!)
A day
‘This is the most complex consumer device anyone has ever made’: Apple has been forced to make drastic cuts to production forecasts for the mixed-reality Vision Pro headset, after seven years in development.
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Investing is a marathon and not a sprint.
Take your time to put your money to work.
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"It's more costly to sell badly than it is to buy badly"
❤️ the quote by Tim Beyers
@MotleyFoolMoney
Investing When You’re Down
Podcast Episode · Motley Fool Money · 02/05/2022 · 32m
podcasts.apple.com
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Patience helps turn a great stock idea into great returns.
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Drawing inspiration from
@TessAngWrites
My favourite Peter Lynch quotes involve rocks, pants, kisses, and faith:
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"The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game."
2/5
"I'm always fully invested. It's a great feeling to be caught with your pants up."
8 investing Gems from Peter Lynch.
Peter Lynch grew his fund from $20 million to $14 billion from 1977 to 1990.
That is a 29.2% annually for 13 years.
Here is how he did it:
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$BRK AGM is coming soon.
No better way to catch up than the
@SteadyCompound
summary below.
Buffett's letters taught me more about investing than any business school ever could.
Even after investing for 14 years, I uncover new insights every time I reread his letters.
Recently, I reread his letters from 1977 to 2020 for a third time.
Here are my key insights:
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You won’t catch every 10-bagger and that’s okay.
Peter Lynch wrote down 65 stocks that went up 10x AND he missed, either by not buying or selling too early.
Didn’t stop Lynch from scoring 29% per year in returns over 13 year period.
You can’t kiss all the frogs.
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The best investment lessons are learnt over years, not months.
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Expectations versus forecasts by
@EugeneNg_VCap
.
“Expectations are healthier than forecasts because they provide a vision of the future stripped of all false precision.”
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Only Charlie Munger will write a rebuttal to a foreword in his own book.
A rebuttal to
@WarrenBuffett
, no less.
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$AAPL
Feb'18:
"Our current net cash position is $163 billion ... we are targeting to become approximately net cash neutral over time."
Feb'23:
"As a result, net cash was $54 billion at the end of the quarter, and we maintain our goal of becoming net cash-neutral over time."
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In less than 2 weeks, I will be celebrating my 15th anniversary of holding shares of $NFLX.
The experience has been both educational and financially rewarding as an investor.
Here are 15 highlights and lessons from my 15-year journey.
#asseeninbt
#nflx
#netflix
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Passed 2k followers for the first time yesterday.
Thought I should pause and give a shout-out to
@SteadyCompound
,
@heymaxkoh
,
@EugeneNg_VCap
and
@FromValue
for helping me spread the word.
Thank you 🙏
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Update: I am turning into an inadvertent dividend investor.
First $META, then $BKNG and $CRM and now $GOOGL.
In the long term, we’re all dividend investors. 😂
Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL, the parent company of Google, just initiated a quarterly dividend of $0.20/share
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The value created by a business is my favourite margin of safety.
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“Predicting the rain doesn't count; building arks does.”
--
@WarrenBuffett
Even the Fed Chairman is telling you not to listen to forecasts.
"Forecasts are highly uncertain. Forecasting is very difficult. Forecasters are a humble lot with much to be humble about." - Fed Chair Jerome Powell
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Earnings conference calls are useful but it can also be too much of a good thing.
My latest article in Singapore's financial newspaper, The Business Times (26 April 2023):
1/5 We live in an age of instant reaction.
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6
23
1. $NFLX financials
2. Subscriber metrics and content spend
3. Near-term plans to monetise attention
4. Some thoughts on partnership with $MSFT
5. Some thoughts on $DIS Disney+
This is an edited version of our member's only update.
3
4
20
Starting a podcast with a dear friend, Chong Ser Jing.
We're calling it The Better Podcast, where you and I get better at this game called life.
EP 1: Thinking in systems, feedback loops, investing in Russia, the convergence of payments and CRMs, and more.
Link below 👇
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Singapore (5.7 million population) is punching above its weight when it comes to bubble tea
vs. Malaysia (32.7 million) and the Philippines (115.6 million).
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Mr. Market has mood swings, but he is not dumb.
Sometimes, according to Ben Graham, Mr. Market’s idea of value appears to be plausible and justified by business development as you know them.
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What to do when your stock crashes 20% or more 🧵
1/7 Don't panic
It's easier said than done.
So, here's something doable: size your positions to your risk appetite or hold a cash position you can use during major declines.
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"On average, a $GOOG ... data center is more than 1.5x as energy efficient as a typical enterprise data center and, compared with 5 years ago, we now deliver approximately 3 times as much computing power with the same amount of electrical power."
Note: from 2017 to 2022.
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$GOOG's diluted share outstanding is down 9.6% from its 2018 peak.
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From
@TheKuoKnows
:
“The best thing about the stock market is its predictability.
The worst thing about the stock market is its predictability.
In the short term, the stock market is predictably unpredictable.
Anyone who tells you that they know how a stock will perform in a
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@IntrinsicInv
"Our research shows that if search results are slowed by even a fraction of a second, people search less (seriously: A 400ms delay leads to a 0.44 percent drop in search volume, data fans)."
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Gartner hype cycle rates generative AI close to the peak of expectations.
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Keep learning.
Don’t be afraid to take on new things.
No one is ever 100% ready anyway.
One passion leads to another and eventually, you’ll find your calling.
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Nov 2008 was when you could buy $SBUX for $4 per share and be earning 51% dividend yield on cost today.
It's also the time when you get so sick in your stomach to the point you don't want to look at your portfolio -- because it's a total horror story.
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It wasn’t until I picked up a book called Value Investing with the Masters by
@KirkKazanjian
that I realised that I have been going about it the wrong way.
This book was one of 25 recommended by
@TomGardnerFool
back in 2005.
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3
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“There is always something to worry about.
Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of newscasters.
Sell a stock because the company's fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.”
— Peter Lynch
[article link below by a good friend, Ser Jing]
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$MSFT security is now ~10% of its TTM revenue.
"Over the past 12 months, our security business surpassed $20 billion in revenue, as we help customers protect their digital estate across clouds and endpoint platforms."
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Look, ma — I’m on TV.
On
@ChannelNewsAsia
to talk about the Magnificent 7 stocks, namely $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $NVDA and $TLSA.
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2
18
Warren Buffett often says that the stock market is here to serve you, and not instruct you.
That’s great advice.
Yet, it’s rare to find an investor who will confess to being led by the nose in the stock market.
My latest article on Singapore's financial newspaper, the
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“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.
It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
– Mark Twain
@lukepuplett
"I don't know" is the ultimate "margin of safety" when it comes to investing IMO.
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We are back!
And we had a lot to say in The Better Podcast Ep
#6
...
1. Mark Zuckerberg's 4,200+ word email in 2013 provided a window into his mind
2. We made connections to $GOOG co-founder Larry Page's 10x moonshot mentality
[cont'd]
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We do love dividends in Singapore.
Source: JP Morgan's Guide to the Markets
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I am turning into an inadvertent dividend investor.
First $META, then $BKNG, now $CRM.
In the long term, we’re all dividend investors. 😂
Salesforce $CRM initiates its first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share
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Sharing my thoughts on $NFLX
If its previous quarter is about setting lower expectations, 2Q'22 is about laying the groundwork for the future.
A detailed update 👇
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@innercitadel77
Will go with variety:
1. John Neff on Investing (value with dividends)
2. 5 Keys to Value Investing (value with catalyst)
3. Little Book That Builds Wealth (moats)
4. Keeping Your Dividend Edge (dividends)
5. Rule Breakers, Rule Makers (avid RB fan)
6. One up on Wall Street
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2
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Warren Buffett said AI is extraordinary but he doesn't know if it’s beneficial.
So, question:
1. What are the actual use cases?
2. Are there limits to the hype?
Let's dig through the transcripts and find out 🧵
Massive h/t the Good Investors, link below
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A friend posted this old newspaper clipping from 2000.
How many brands survived?
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So, I decided to tabulate each of investing styles
based on the different elements of investing.
All in a valiant search for the “ultimate investing” steps.
Instead of finding the secret investing kung-fu book, I discovered something else.
2
3
14
My main takeaway = it is more important that you have an investing approach that comes together to match your character.
With that, it became my first big lesson as a new investor in 2005.
Find the “investing” approach that can become my own.
What I learnt from
@DavidGFool
Volume
#1
Happy belated birthday, David!
Will start with 6 lessons, a numerical tribute to the 6 signs of Rule Breakers (RB).
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From
@morganhousel
"So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory."
And another ...
"So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory."
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$AAPL
Feb'18:
"Our current net cash position is $163 billion ... we are targeting to become approximately net cash neutral over time."
Feb'24:
"As a result, net cash was, $65 billion ... our goal of becoming net cash neutral over time remains unchanged."
2
2
13
More context for $MSFT security business:
2Q'FY21 TTM revenue = US$10 billion
2Q'FY22 TTM revenue = US$15 billion
2Q'FY23 TTM revenue = US$20 billion
$MSFT security is now ~10% of its TTM revenue.
"Over the past 12 months, our security business surpassed $20 billion in revenue, as we help customers protect their digital estate across clouds and endpoint platforms."
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$GOOGL on Bard
"Bard and ChatGPT are large language models, not knowledge models.
They are great at generating human-sounding text, they are not good at ensuring their text is fact-based.”
Google execs tell employees in testy all-hands meeting that Bard A.I. isn't just about search
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"Ernest Hemingway left a gross estate of $1,410,310.
Mr. Hemingway had holdings in 36 companies.
They were mainly blue-chip securities that apparently provided him with more income in the five years preceding his death than did his published works."
🔗 below
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Two mistakes I have made in 2015:
1. Got swayed into accepting lower quality stocks at lower valuation.
2. Related to (1), hoping for bear market valuations to return. It may or may not come back.
Don’t do it.
Reminder as valuations for most good businesses start to 📈
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$NFLX don’t debate too much, just build and test, relentlessly.
Similar to $BKNG culture of relentless A/B testing.
Why did Netflix build autoplay of the next episode?
Here's your Sunday read
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“Market timing is hard not just because you need to be right twice for it to work — when you get out and when you get back in.
It also requires the courage to get back in when you don’t want to.”
—
@awealthofcs
I got an email once from an investor who went to cash in 1999
Pretty good timing
The only problem is he was still sitting in cash 15 years later
Some thoughts on what to do when you become addicted to cash and can't force yourself to invest:
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$AAPL's profit is up 16.5 times since FY2009.
In of term EPS, it is up over 26 times.
The reason?
Share buybacks.
Number of shares, adjusted for stock splits, are down 37% during this period.
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@FromValue
“You Americans measure profitability by a ratio. There’s a problem with that.
No banks accept deposits denominated in ratios.
The way we measure profitability is in ‘tons of money’. You use the return on assets ratio if cash is scarce.
But if there is actually a lot of
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@hzhu_
Zuckerberg’s base salary has been $1 since 2013.
Has not received any additional shares since $FB IPO.
Did get $27 million for security and other expenses for 2021, though.
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For more, do check out
@jasonzweigwsj
's Your Money and Your Brain.
It's one of the few books that has made a huge impact on how I invest.
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$SE
“... this is not a quickly passing storm: these negative conditions will likely persist into the medium term.”
The only way for us to free ourselves from relying on external capital is to become self-sufficient, generating enough cash for all our own needs and projects”.
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$DIS
Net debt = $36.8b
TTM free cash flow (FCF) = $1.1b
$WBD
Net debt = $47.4b
TTM FCF = $1.6b
Merger completed April 2022, FCF includes pre-merger
$NFLX
Net debt = $7.8b
TTM FCF = 717m
#streaming
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