Charles Frischer
@cfrischer1
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Long term investor with value inclination. Board member Kingsway Financial Services KFS-NYSE.
Seattle, WA
Joined July 2013
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$TIPT Tiptree is a $12 stock with $26.12 in NAV. The NAV consists of $19.85 worth of Fortegra, a fast growing speciality insurance company and $6.27 in Tiptree Capita
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I filed a 13D form on $LRFC Logan Ridge Finance today, with 5.4% ownership. 145k shares out of 2.7 million. Shares are trading for $21 per share with $36 NAV as reported in 3rd qrt 2022.
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$FFH $FFH.TO $876.55 3rd quarter book. $42.26 in earnings, 5% increase in net premiums written, dividends and interest at $512 million for the quarter. Share of profits of $291 million. Very solid quarter. I am pleased.
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I have received a number of excellent questions regarding my posts on $FFH.TO. They include questions on goodwill, Prem Watsa’s track record, Bangalore Airport and Blackberry.
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$FFH.TO reported after hours. Another solid quarter. $37 per share earnings and $35 increase in book value to $980. Net written premiums up only 3% as Odyssey pulled back from a marginal quota share agreement before increase from Gulf. $50 in additional book not in IFRS numbers.
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$FFH earnings are out. The numbers are terrific. $939.65 in year end book value per share, $52.87 per share in earnings, including the gain from buying Gulf. Combined was 90% for the quarter and 93.2% for the year. Perfect results.
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$NN I filed a 13-D on NextNav today after the closing. I think the company owns spectrum that could end up being worth more than the current stock price. The upcoming earnings call will hopefully provide on update on their submission to the FCC to dual use their spectrum.
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$SCR.TO Strathcona is a very attractive oil and gas company on the verge of returning significant capital back to shareholders. Shares are $32.00 and I think they will be up 50% in 6-9 months. On 8/13 they will announce new dividend and a buyback will come shortly thereafter.
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$CASH This exchange towards the end of the conference call really sums up the story. Perito is the KBW analyst and Pharr is the CEO.
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$FFH The message from reducing premium growth is that Prem is working towards insuring that the company earns at least $4 billion per year for the next 4 years. That is $16 billion. Those funds will be reinvested and should earn at least 10% returns, likely more.
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$CASH A favorite financial of mine reported another solid quarter tonight. CASH bought back 765k shares at $51.20. That represents 3% of the outstanding shares. Lending results were excellent and earnings were $2.56 per share. CASH confirmed 2024 earnings of $6.45 at midpoint.
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$CASH closed at $47.57 on Friday and is currently selling for 8 times 2023 earnings and 7.5 times projected 2024 earnings. Per share earnings are expected to grow by 8% next year. I think that number may end up being higher as company is being conservative in their outlook.
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$FFH.TO Muddy complained about mark on Go Digit. Claimed proper mark should have been $1.5 billion. Post IPO, Digit now supports way over $3.0 billion valuation. Muddy has been proven completely wrong over the last 4 months.
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Folks have asked if $KFS has a hurdle rate on new search acquisitions. In general, we model a 20% IRR prior to leverage and 35% after leverage. These are projections and we all know that projections are not set in stone. Each deal is different and the numbers do vary.
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$NN NextNav is one of my top investment ideas for 2024. The next milestone for the company is to file a request with the FCC for dual use of their spectrum. I expect that to happen by the middle February at the latest.
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LF Partners' Charles Frischer Sends Letter to Atlas Corporation Special Committee | Newswire
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$NN Director Neil Suban reported buying 250k shares over the last few days. Given that the insiders at the company have the very best look into the process, this should provide some comfort to shareholders. Suban spent $1.75 million to buy these shares.
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$FFH This earnings report is fantastic. They also reduced premiums at Brit and Odyssey, showing tremendous discipline and focus. They are playing for big cash flow over the next 3-4 years. Couldn't be happier.
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$TIPT Tiptree announced they are going to take Fortegra, their 70% owned insurance company, public. They filed their initial S-1 registration statement. Warburg Pincus bought 24% of this company for $200 million in June of 2021, valuing the entire company at $833 million.
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$NN hired a new COO today. She has a very strong resume and should be a great addition to the team. I thought the quote from press release was very instructive. The mention of 5G broadband was important.
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$FFH.TO lets start with Viking's $68 after tax earnings from dividends and interest. Let's add $43 after tax from $25 billion in net written premiums at 95% combined. $111 in after tax earrings from these two pieces.
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$NN Great news on filing to the FCC today. The US needs the supplemental GPS system that we can provide. With all the turmoil in the world, an alternative GPS system is critical. Here is an except from the filing.
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$NN. On today's conference call, T Mobile had this to say about the status of the 800 Mhz spectrum that was under option to Dish and that Dish declined to purchase. I think this answer is great news and shows strong interest for spectrum just like NN's. I love this answer.
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$ATCO took a couple of weeks longer than I thought but a deal has been formally reached at 15.50. A good outcome for all parties. $FRFHF will include around $100 per share worth of Atlas post closing. So buy those shares if you will miss having Atlas in your portfolio.
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$CASH saw a big drop yesterday. Company should earn at least $4 per share this year and $5 next year. Stock closed at $34. Buyback starts up two days after Q drops. Q should drop by August 10th. August 12th buyback will be in place. They bought 1% of the company back in July.
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$FFH now says due to extending duration on bonds, it will earn at least $2 billion per year from income and dividends for the next 4 years. Yearly net earrings were $4.4 billion, a company record. Let's see how $FRFHF will allocate $12 billion over next 3 years.
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$NN call was right on target. They have the goods. They are not in a position to provide details on value of spectrum or timing. They are not going to compromise our standing before government agencies. The did confirm assets are outstanding. 3.5 mhz pops is big time.
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$NN is going to report earnings after the close tomorrow. The revenue and expense numbers are not important to the story, but might be in a year or two as the GPS starts to generate some meaningful revenue. Investors are looking forward to update on our recent FCC filing.
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$NN CEO of NN gave a great presentation today at Oppenheimer conference. Here is the link. This is must watch.
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$FFH I am seeing so much to like in this report. Prem is setting up the company for an even better next 4 years. A true cash flow machine. The question for Prem at the annual meeting is how do you plan to allocate this capital?
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$FFH.TO 854,000 shares repurchased or 3.6% during the first 2 quarters of 2024. Received $5 dollar per share in dividend from Eurobond plus $13 gain coming when Stelco closes. Combined at 93.9%. First glance looks like another steady and profitable quarter. A lot to like here.
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$ATCO $FRFHF Atlas should announce a definite deal by end of next week. 15.50 plus two 12.5 cent dividend payments. Spread should narrow by at least 25-30 cents on this news
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$FFO.TO reasonable quarter. Dividends, interest and underwriting all carried their weight. Weak results in Fairfax India cost us $300 million. Investments were weak but should get better as year moves forward. $945 book as of 3/31/24. Should be close to 1,100 by year end.
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$NN The newest updated filing by the company should allow the FCC to issue the NPRM and start the comment process. Once this process starts, we will see some parties argue against this rule memo, but this is the beginning of the road to dual use of the spectrum.
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$FFH Buybacks, buying the pieces of insurance companies owned by OMERS, new investments, creating a stronger balance sheet. All strong possibilities.
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Overall, Fairfax is enjoying strong insurance market, massive bond portfolio is perfectly positioned for higher rates, earnings per share should be fantastic and you get $13 billion equity portfolio for free. For only 75% of book and 6 times earnings.
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$CNSL I just released the following letter regarding the buyout by Searchlight. I plan to vote against this buyout because the price is far too low for the value we are giving up as shareholders.
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The Bangalore Airport, in which Fairfax India $FIH.U owns a controlling interest, is a fantastic asset with truly monopoly characteristics. Hari Marar runs the airport and he is a great manager. I have toured this asset with Hari and I think it is world class.
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$FRFHF assuming we trade for at least 1.25 of book in 3 years, we get a share price of $1,600 or an easy double. The story could easily get better and we could trade for $2,000 per share with slightly better assumptions.
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$FRFHF This is another reliable quarter from the company. No surprises and just steady performance. New Fairfax is playing it right up the middle of the field. 22.2 million reported shares outstanding now. I didn't see anything that concerned. Now on to hurricane season.
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$CNSL These charts are taken directly from the proxy. As you can see, cash flow in 3-5 years becomes remarkably strong. They are buying this at essentially the bottom of the cycle.
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$CASH reported yet another very solid earnings number this week. The company conservatively guided to $6.50 (midpoint) in earnings for 2024. They bought back 2.6 million shares in the last 4 quarters, plus another 300,000 in the first two weeks of October.
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My friend Asheef thinks the move today in $NN is short covering as market participants cover companies with weak financials due to rally in money losing small caps. Nothing new on FCC docket, although we are all waiting on NPRM to drop. That would be news.
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$NN The NN spectrum is highly desirable and should be sought after by the large telecom companies. This investment is also expected to be largely non-correlated to generic stock market. Plus, 8 million shares short might have to cover if we get some good news on Wednesday.
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$NN's petition to the FCC is a powerful offering which includes an attractive chunk of spectrum for wireless use and the standing up of an alternative, land based GPS system. The most recent changes should jump start the process. I think we might see the NPRM within 30 days.
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@BrownMarubozu
Viking is the GOAT on $FFH.TO. If you don’t follow his posts on Corner of Berkshire, you are missing the thoughts of the very best analyst on Fairfax. Stock is still wonderfully cheap. My largest holding and will be for years to come. The next 5 years will be great at Fairfax.
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$SCR Put up a solid 2nd quarter. Results were right in line. 3% dividend initiated, using $1 per share of cash flow. Company would generate another $3 dollars per share in cash flow at current WTI levels. Look to see a couple of $1.5 special dividends and then buybacks later.
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Some thoughts on $FFH.TO $FRFHF as the stock market continues to grind lower. $485 per share price versus $588 2nd quarter book value or 82.5%. Quite cheap. 2% yield based on yearly $10 dollar dividend paid in January each year.
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$NN Article from Bloomberg describes how members of FFC see shortage of spectrum. This is great news for NextNav.
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$NN I like the management team very much, the Board is very strong and the assets are excellent. As always, do your own due diligence. As I like to say, patience is required but should be rewarded on this investment.
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Adding $5.5 for Tiptree Capital, gets you $31.97 current NAV.
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Buffett says if you generate zero cost float, it should be added to book value. The cost of $FFH.TO float over the last 10 years was negative 2.1%. The company was actually paid to control this float.
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$CNSL I filed the attached letter with the SEC today which outlines my serious objections to the take over by Searchlight. I don't think minority shareholders are being treated fairly in this transaction.
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$CASH Tonight’s earnings were solid. Earnings up 19% year over year. Remember, 4th quarter is seasonally weakest. $6.475 earnings guidance at midpoint for 2024. Buyback machine continues. Happy with these results. Selling for 8x 2024 projected earnings.
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$NN The comment period ends on Sept 5th. We may see a 30-day extension. I would expect extension to drop by end of this week if granted by FCC. Most significant opposition will be filed on 29th or 30th day of comment period.
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$TIPT reported earnings yesterday. Their insurance operations are performing very well. This allowed them to increase 2nd qrt NAV by $1.99 per share to $28.69 against 1st qrt 23 NAV of $26.70. This trend should continue through rest of year and into 2024. Shares closed at $14.81.
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$KFS warrants expire this week. I believe the warrants have put downward pressure on the shares over the last few weeks and months. I think by October 1st, we should be virtually done with any selling pressure from warrants.
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$NN Investors hope to hear from our CEO the update on the process and her outlook for success. I believe we are offering a compelling story to the FCC - approval on dual use of spectrum and we will stand up strong back up GPS system that offers mission critical redundancy.
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$NN $TMUS Is it likely that TMUS is blocking $SATS from bidding on their 800 Mhz spectrum because they completely failed to purchase the spectrum for 4 years. Maybe they are also blocking because they don't need SATS bid to reach the $3.6 billion reserve price.
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The sale of this spectrum is an important comp for $NN's 900 Mhz spectrum. If $TMUS has multiple bidders and executes well, that bodes well for NN. I am laser focused on this process. TMUS has already said they have numerous expressions of interest.
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Finally Blackberry $BB has been a negative, but now $FFH.TO owns $260 million in common stock and $535 million in 1.75% convert note due at the end of 2023. This represents 5.3% of my book value. Even the best investors miss occasionally. Ask Buffett $BKK.B about shoe business.
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$NN Patience will be required but rewarded. If you need immediate gratification, this stock may not be for you. If you can wait 6-12 months, the journey should be exciting and profitable. Very profitable.
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There is always a bit of reading the room when it comes to investing in spectrum related stocks. That is part of the investing process. $NN has hired a great CEO, added to their spectrum holdings, filed a strong dual use petition and just hired a former employee at VZ and GOOG.
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These assets are only as good as the companies acquired by $FFH.TO. Allied World is responsible for $1.5 billion in goodwill. Fairfax paid 1.3 times book for Allied in 2017 and that 30% premium became goodwill.
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$NN Further to Asheef's theory, he noted that in March of 2024, a similar trading pattern emerged. NN announced acquiring 4 Mhz of spectrum and stock closed at $5.26. Earnings were released on March 13th and share closed down on the week $4.21 - another option expiration Friday.
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$CASH is now selling for 8.2 times 2024 earnings and 7.5 times my $7.10 2025 EPS estimate. A bank that is really largely a payments processing company. One day CASH will trade for 15 times earnings. Happy to own until that day arrives.
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$KNOP reported a good quarter tonight with $12 million of net income (around 35 cents p/s). KNOP is making progress with financing, new leases and extensions on existing vessels. Need some more work on remaining 4 ships under utilized. Call tomorrow should provide more color.
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$SCR.TO float is only 9% of the 215 million shares outstanding. They can easily buy back half the float over the next 12 months. The base and special dividends might get close to a 10% combined yield. All in their control. I like this story very much. Bought more today.
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$FFH with $16 billion earning at least 10%, this generates $1.6 billion per year or $69 pre tax. With a 13% return, the pre-tax earnings would increase by $90 pre-tax. Is that is any analyst's numbers? I haven't see it.
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$NN FCC should seek to start 30-day comment period by the end of May. It is possible the public comment period could be over by end of July and a decision could be made by the end of the 4th quarter of 2024. If approved, spectrum would be worth more than the current share price.
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$NN CEO described how companies outside of big three have up to 25 Mhz of downlink spectrum and that adding an extra 10 Mhz would be very desirable. The demand should be strong for our proposed spectrum if approved by the FCC.
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$NN Management and the Board are excellent and have extensive experience in telecom spectrum. The potential for their alternative GPS system is significant and will take a few years to play out. Alternative GPS becomes more important every day due to geopolitical tensions.
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Shares will move higher as we move through 2024. Next milestone will be approval of sale of Uecker spectrum by California court. Then the filing of the application. I think the filing occurs within 4-6 months. Then hopefully decision by end of 2024. Will be worth the wait.
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$NN This testing of various alternatives to GPS is very important to government. We received the largest amount of funding. I think this shows we have the goods in this area.
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Any company would want to own a controlling interesting in Bangalore and I hope the partners are able to take control of additional airports and other infrastructure in India over time. This is Prem Watsa investing at his very best.
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Fairfax will easily generate $23 billion in net written premiums over next 12 months. Assuming a 95% combined, pre-tax underwriting profit would be $1.15 billion or $50 per share based upon 23 million shares outstanding.
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$CASH Given weakness in the stock price, the company may use 90% of earnings on buybacks. Assuming $6.50 in EPS times 26 million shares, total buyback might be $150 million. At $50 per share, they can buy back 3 million shares or 11.5% of the outstanding.
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$NN Amended their petition to the FCC on June 7th, so we are 5 weeks from that submission. I think the NPRM should drop within the next 30-45 days, given that we are already 35 days from the amendment. Company has hired all the right people and is doing all the right things.
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Overall, I think asking about the $5.9 billion in goodwill at $FFH.TO is valid and based upon my review, the goodwill is more than covered by the value of the assets.
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@MakoMiningCorp
#mko
.v. Shares are very cheap, even with 1,720 gold. We become a dividend machine starting in 6-8 months. If you can wait, the sun will rise and we will all be warm. In another 18 months we will be likely milling 1,000 tons per day. Then another dividend step up.
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@DossTarun
That is a fair criticism. I am a long-term investor but the short term movements in stocks also grab my attention. Probably a bad habit I should try to break. I have owned $KFS shares going back to 2019. This is, and will continue to be, a very long-term investment for me.
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@timiokah
$KFS - Timi maybe this is the sixth acquisition because Ravix and CSuite were two, Secure Nursing and the three we just announced in the last two months. We are six strong in the KSX program. Can't wait to see how these six businesses do in 2024. Love the team JT has put together
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Regarding goodwill/intangible assets, $FRFHF reported $5.9 billion in goodwill at year-end 2021 or $257 per share. This included $3.6 billion related to acquisition accounting of insurance companies and $2.3 billion related to non-insurance companies.
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$AGS I have a small position in AGS and can’t stop the merger. I sure hope one of the larger shareholders, talking to you Arrowmark, steps up to fight deal. With my few shares I am voting no on this deal. Wish I had the capital to fight this one successfully.
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$NN The company is reporting this Wednesday, about two weeks earlier than previous years. I assume they have news they want to disseminate. In any case, permission for dual use will hopefully be requested in the near future. Patience will be required, but should be rewarded.
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$NN Hans has spent $52 billion on spectrum during this term at CEO. I will post excerpts from the talk on my posts.
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$CASH Looking forward, 2025 earnings should be around $7.25 and 2026 earnings should land around $8.00. We are trading at 7 times 2024 earnings, 6.4 times 2025 earnings and 5.75 times 2025. Credit quality remains strong.
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$NN Hans Vestberg, CEO of Verizon, spoke at JP Morgan Conference on May 11th. His comments were fascinating and he spoke at length regarding his views on spectrum in the US. At the beginning of the talk, he was clear that VZ doesn't need any more spectrum.
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@Belleskin2
$NN I think the company is exactly where they expected to in the process so far, maybe even a bit better. This will take some time but I think what the company is offering is good for the national interest. I think our outlook for approval is very good.
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$COST is best company in S&P 500 IMHO and they have generated 12% steady returns for 20 years. They sell at 40 times earnings. Lumpy 15% returns might get you 15-20 PE. Go figure. Quants prefer no drawdowns.
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$TIPT investor relations site has a number of helpful presentations for additional due diligence. These presentations are highly recommended.
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Clearly Allied is worth far more than the $4.9 billion $FFH.TO paid just 5 year ago. I think the company might be worth close to double what Fairfax and Prem paid. Clearly, that goodwill is not only valuable but also, far understated.
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$NN My friend Asheef thinks that options expiration today put pressure on the shares as the option market markers sold common which was purchased to cover the calls they had sold. The calls that expired today meant they could sell the related common shares. I think he is right.
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@qbert50000
$MKO.V is currently cash flow positive and is probably selling for between 3-4 times cash flow. Akiba, the CEO, has made it clear that he hopes to reduce risk via acquisitions away from Nicaragua. I think that strategy is reasonable if he does smart deals. I like him.
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$FFH.TO then has $15 billion equity portfolio to help contribute minus interest expense and corporate overhead. So $150 per share in earnings for next 3 years seems like a straight path. $834 in book plus $450 in earnings over next 36 months gets to $1,284 in 3 yrs.
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$NN As the talk goes on, Vestberg starts to talk about how there is not enough spectrum in the pipeline over the next 3-5 years. "The government has a challenge, there is no spectrum in the pipeline".
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