Chris Robinson
@cer_hedge
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Founder: Robinson Ag Marketing. #Colgate Raider 88. Manage your risk every day. Tweets are my opinions and insights. #tradeatyourownrisk .
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All-time high yesterday- 39012. You can not rally 20% in 4 months- and 36% over the last 15 months- and not expect pullbacks. Unless you live in fantasy land.
#dow
900 points- is just 2%. 5% of 39000 is 2K points. Buckle-up for safety.
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#farmers
- today was the 18th day out of 160 trading days in 2023 to sell
#SX23
above $14.00. If you hated the
#managedfunds
when we were at $11.30- take vengeance on them today. They just gave you $2.70 per bushel back of revenue. $13,500 on every 5K bushels you grow. Sell or
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Since we hit $6.02 back in 2022-
#fibonacci
has "known" that $4.74 1/2 was a possibility. I don't see how anyone should be "surprised" we are here. Tell me where we'll be by July and you'll win "the golden ticket"..
#corn
#technicals
#oatt
#cz4
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#livecattle
#fatcattle
-We rallied 38/cwt in 15 months. We were overdue for a correction. The consumer is stretched. Credit card defaults up; 1K a month car payments? 8% mortgages? Cattle could drop to this bull-trendline and still be in a long-term uptrend.
#oatt
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@zerohedge
well over $50 Trillion in household net worth was created between March 2020 and Jan 2022. We are still 82% higher than the Covid Panic Low in the
#SP500
at 2174. 490% higher than the 2008 GFC low at 666. Spin that for clicks and follows.
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#crudeoil
- rallies from $63.64 in May to $95.03 last week. Up 31.39- or 49.3%; $83 is the 38%; $79.30 is the 50% $76 is the 62%. If your job is to "refill the
#spr
" ? Where do you hit the "buy" button on 180M barrels?
#refilltheSPR
#oatt
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Today’s notes and levels. Every day. Before the 8:30 open. Take a free spin.
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#dxy
- The dollar is voting with its feet today. Shows you the fx market thinks the
#fed
is done.
#sixweeklow
. Pretty nice outside-week-lower reversal in the
#dollar
. Also- very
#technical
- hitting the 25% retrace of the 7.78 point rally from 99.22 to that 1 year high at 107..
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22 years ago we were blessed to bring home this 6’8” guy from the hospital. He came into the world at 9lbs and just never stopped:)
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65 years of
#corn
prices; From $1.01 to $8.43 - we are right in the middle with spot corn at $4.72. Every bull and every bear- is equally "right" and equally "wrong" right here. Bull or Bear-you need to defend your risk. You can hope, you can pray, or you can hedge.
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Like Forrest Gump said, "I am not a smart man.., but I know what a 2-year low in
#natgas
gas should mean to fertilizer prices-.
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Agtwit, if you need helpful, honest advice, one of the best, although he, wisely, is not an adviser- :) is
@Badgerswimr
. Best of all, he is not hostile when he differs in opinion from others. Refreshing on this platform, to say the least. Highly recommend a follow.
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2 months ago- when
#srw
had just "lost" $2.61/bushel over 30 weeks? If I had told you a 750 year old Italian math teacher woke up to save your bacon? You would have called the looney bin. 62% retracement- done and dusted.
#fibonacci
drinking Peroni for breakfast :)
#wheat
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55 yrs of cattle trade- If you look at this pic and don't see risk? You probably should be the first person to volunteer to fly to Mars solo.
#cattle
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@GovPritzker
Dear Sir,I invite you to walk through the loop by yourself with no security detail after dusk. I'll walk with you. We'll start in Greek Town and walk to the lake. The loop is a ghost town for a reason. And thankfully I can run faster than you :)
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@FarmGirlCarrie
community note. This is an episode or "what would you do" with john quiñones. It's a set up to see what people would do with a hidden camera.
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#grainbulls
- if you love the rally- the one thing you have to pray for tonight? That no one on CNBC mentions the words, "corn, drought, or buy"... in the same sentence. Lord Here our Prayers.
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#corn
CZ2- New Crop Can the tech-nuts hit the 200-day at $6.21? We have rallied 56 cents in 4 days; producer? SOS- Sell on Strength-- or at least buy put on this rally to capture revenue. If 4 days ago-you were worried about $4.75 corn? This tweet is for you.
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#chicago
my daughter’s friends car was stolen in the city. Already used in 14 robberies. What a sad joke this city has become.
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58 years of
#cattle
prices- What could possibly go wrong here?
#setthehedge
The Kiss of Death? The day someone in NYC on an "investment advice show" recommends buying a cattle ranch for your 401k :)
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Every grain bull and every grain bear =- at some point in the last 24 hours.. Seems about right for June 20th.
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Dow? Record High Monday- 35000. Three days later? Down 1800 points to today's low tick- 33200. 5% correction people. 5%- not 50%. Hold the hand of your local news anchor and teach them about 3rd grade math and percentages.
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With corn slipping to a 17-month low- I had a lot of emails asking about 2012 price action. In 2012, we didn't bottom out until June. Then we rallied from $5.50 to $8.40 --If you are going to dream-
#agtwitter
- dream big!
#Corn
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Twitter- if you like my stuff. If you think I add value- help me grow my list past 7K this month. No bots. Real farmers, ranchers and speculators who have skin in the game.
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#Corn
is feeling a bit like 2007-2008. From $3.13. to $6.75 to $2.90 by Christmas 2008? Just a reference point for the last time we had this type of volatility in corn. 15 years ago? Some current farmers were still playing pop-warner football and little league baseball.
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#corn
; If you follow me- you know we've had 6.88 as a potential sell- for 6 weeks. Ever since we made our July low. I am just as surprised as you are, but - here we sit 14 off that high- Thanks go to a 750-year old Italian Math wiz. Simple Levels.
#technicalsareforcheaters
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Imagine if farmers in the US had to deal with this?
Xi Jinping is hiring 87,000 agriculture police officers, and they're coming for Chinese farmers.
Farmers can only plant the crops the government approves.
Today officers arrest this family and destroy all their banana trees——the government wants this family to grow sugar cane.
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This is what is wrong with D.C. If there ever was an add for term limits- this hypocrite jumping off her private plane is one.
This is the person talking about Elon Musk paying his fair share of taxes as she and her Entourage deplane from their private jet while sticking up for the little guy…
Elon’s paying $15 billion in taxes, Lizzy paid $5k on her $12 million..
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750 yrs later- Fibonacci still trading Grains. Big picture- 2012 high at $8.43 3/4.. 2020 12 yr low? $3.00 1/4. This week's 7.5 yr high- $5.74 1/4. Nailed the 50% recovery.
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49 years of feeder cattle prices- A monthly chart- 245.20- the October 2014 All-Time High tick.
This week? We hit 235. Did we really come all this way to not go get that last 10.20 /cwt.?
#feedercattle
#risk
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@CWBChicago
First McDonalds left Russia. Then they left Chicago. Local politician’s bad moves were to blame in both cases.
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#soybeans
- Dr. Evil and the managed funds are bet RECORD SHORT 172K contracts. And we have rallied 56 cents in the last week; From 11.28 3/4 to 11.85- on 860 million bushels? 8.6 million every penny move? A $480 million loss. And that loss? The farmer's gain :)
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May Beans- A $5.55 rally in 3 months. I know every bull on twitter made millions. Now, the question? Can you hang on to it? If you are a farmer? Beans are still $3.70 HIGHER than November's low- What is that "worth" to your bottom line? Set a Hedge. Protect that rally,
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Chicago Wheat
#march
a 10-month low. Anyone brave enough to call this a "triple bottom"? Weekly Chart-Gives you a different perspective.
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The next time someone wants to go short grain in the delivery month. show them this chart- Someone's in the hurt-locker today.
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Is anyone out there brave enough to call $4.81 a double bottom in CZ3? We Re-tested of the 22-month low today.
#cz3
#doublebottom
?
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Weekly Spot
#Corn
- Keep it Simple Stupid. You can not get any simpler, or more clear cut than this 8-month bear trend line. Bulls and Bears are grappling here at $6.84. The yellow vertical line? The week of the next USDA.
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CZ3- hit the 38% on the screws. Farmers? This is a gift. 60 cents in 3 days-$60K for each 100K bushels you own. And- the best part- it came at the expense of the"damn cme speculators" who were short 63k contracts-315m bushels :) Win/ Win?
#corn
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63 years of soybean prices. We came to within 30 cents of the ATH in 2012 at 17.94. Historic moves- Bull or Bear- technicals need to be on your "decision tree" as we head into uncertain waters tonight. Keep your stops tight. Keep your ego on a leash. IMO.
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@DavidCritz
@SantiagoAuFund
China owns 192k acres in the US . We plant 46 million acres of wheat. 92 million acre of corn. 88 million acres of beans 12 million acres of cotton 6 million of sorghum . If 192k acres is ‘vast’ ? You probably call your kayak a yacht. 😂🍻
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7-month low in the US
#Dollar
. Not a peep from TV talking heads. Interesting when a move doesn't fit the narrative- how it gets lost in the shuffle. Curated news is not news, IMO.
103.31-- we are 10% lower than the September 20-year high at 114.75.
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A picture is worth 1000 words. Spot
#Corn
.
We are in a knife fight to stay out of this coffin 3.80 to 3.20. No matter your opinion- No matter what someone promises you based on the Farmer's Almanac? The risk is real.
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#corn
growers; If you did zero marketing so far in 2023? This rally has been your "revenue mulligan". 1/18/23 high- $6.06. The 5/18/23 low- $490.75 - "halfway-back"? $5.48-A gift from the matrix. Are you going to do anything about it is the question :)
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A huge shout-out to
@kannbwx
for being the best follow on
@agtwitter
. Clear. Consise. Accurate. On days like this where I am scrambling to ajust client hedges; with three phone lines lit up. It is nice to be able to rely on her quick and accurate break-downs.
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#LiveCattle
- Smallest herd in 50 years equals a trip back to the future- 2015 prices/8-year highs.
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@caroljsroth
Don't forget the 2 year/ 100% rally from 18K to 36K? That always gets lost in the shuffle on media days like this. Dow at 29500 is 20% off its high. A bear market, yes; But-- still 11,400 points or 63% Higher than the pandemic panic low. Just a bit of perspective.
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Contract high $6.79 1/4. May 31st low $4.90 3/4. A fat $1.88 1/2 drop in revenue. 94.25 is half way back? $5.85---This morning's high? $5.85. If you don't care about farm revenue, don't lift a finger to capture this recovery. Do nothing. if prices fold again on a rainstorm?
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Funny, you never see "climate protesters" lying down on farm roads. :)
If you see a farmer coming down the road, pull over. The farmer deserves the right of way - they are working hard to feed you & me!
#plant17
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$1.39/ $2.47 /$1.61 ? Corn/ Beans/ Chicago Wheat have gained that in 3 weeks. Producer's? It's Christmas in June. Reward it. Or risk a 2013 market- we rallied into July 4th-- then "adios". Corn dropped 6.50 to $4.10- Don't blame the USDA or Speculators-- if that happens. It's
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Somewhere in the
#corn
belt-they are tearing down the statues of
#Fibonacci
. 62% nailed on the seams.
The rest of the year? Belongs to China and Mother Nature.
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Dec Corn- 2 yrs to rally $3.97; 2 months to give back half- Thanks for playing. This is why we hedge.
#corn
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Chicago. Sad. Ironic. Depressing. All of the above. I can remember showing up here in 1990. Streets were packed all day. Even the muggers are complaining now b/c there is no one down there to carjack anymore.
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Only a perma bull could look at a 4 day / 83 cent rally and think, nope.... not good enough to sell.. lol
#corn
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I have no idea why they call $Cotton the "widow maker". Maybe this Chart can enlighten us all.
40 days to grind lower and suck in bears; 10 days to rip their faces off. Will politicians blame this on "greedy cotton farmers"?
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New Crop Beans; From 8.40 2 years ago to $15.84 a month ago. A $7.44 rally; Once again- the 750-year-old Italian math teacher takes a bow as we find support at the 38% retracement of that rally. Things that make you go hmmm.
#soybean
#technicals
#levels
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Sorry, but this was funny. And anyone who bought crypto b/c of a commercial only has the person in the mirror to blame, not Matt Damon or Lebron.
Matt Damon to everyone he got into crypto last year:
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New Crop Beans- We have rallied $2.92 since November's USDA. $14.83 high overnight; $12.00 beans look cheap in the rearview mirror. Hindsight is always the best trader- especially on twitter.
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New Crop CZ23- There is 50 cents of risk here if we just grind lower into March 31st Planting Intentions data dump. Barring a demand or S.A. weather story- we are stuck bowling with "gutter guards" between these two stupid technical lines. IMO.
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Storing Chicago
#Wheat
? There's a 22 month bull-trendline being tested here; Bull or Bear- this seems like a level you shouldn't just ignore.
#marchchicagowheat
#
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That's me in the Dow Pit all those years ago! Thanks to
@baw690
for forwarding this to me.
“The Dow has more than doubled since topping 5000 for the first time less than 3 1/2 years ago.”
—
@chicagotribune
, 3/30/99
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Charts don't matter. Ok then, Don't look at this one. Close your eyes. But 2023 Corn is At Contract highs. No one wants to hedge corn in the bin; or 2022 corn, much less think about 2023. But this is a good development if you grow corn. Or if you speculate on corn price.
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Cramer talked about wheat just now. Pointed out we are at a 7-month low.
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Escaped Chicago for western Michigan .. have a great weekend everyone!
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Like Forrest Gump said, "I am not a smart man, but I know May Beans have big resistance at $17.00" Bull Or Bear, we can probably at least agree on that? :)
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If
#cotton
were a stray dog- it would be in those ASPCA commercials with the sad background music. This has been 5 months of pure torture for bulls and bears trying to break out of this cesspool between 85.50 and 79.50.
#CTZ3
#cotton
#stopthemadness
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