Calvin T.
@calvintsaikm
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Crypto quant trader | ranked top 10 on CEX leaderboard｜daily turnover 200m+ / monthly ~5B usd | mm of CEX | NFA. | calvintsai.eth & .sol | never dm you
Hong Kong
Joined May 2018
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For those sharing position, with pnl > 5m usd on leaderboard, only 4, with return > 1000%, only me. Lucky me.
#Binance
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To emphasise the importance of market neutral, here are some short trades I’m doing. If counting in leverage, % return of these trades are over 1000%. Reason I short $ZIL is that the founding team isn’t that sophisticated, low chance being successful. For $GMT, it is overheated
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Just wondering if it is good to share a long-short trade that I m doing in my portfolio rn…
If you re interested, you may help retweet this tweet, I’ll share more abt the long-short pair if this post can get 100+ retweets… seems not possible…
#binance
#binanceleaderboard
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The importance of market neutral. All are talking about LUNA & UST. My avg px of LUNA isn’t high, like ard $50, but still would lose if I didn’t do it in a market neutral way.
If you don’t have algo / quant strategy on hand, I believe long-short balanced is the best approach.
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Along the 2 short positions shown yesterday, here are 2 other shorts that I am doing. $NEAR & $RSR. Shorting NEAR because its sentiment in Apr is too bullish due to its announcement of working on stablecoin. Shorting RSR because its circulating supply went up…
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Many ppl asked for help on their losing positions, so I just tried my best to pump BTC these 2 days. Just managed to pump it back to 20k level. Still got plenty cash on hand, it it dips to 15-18k range, will try my best to buy again.
HODL! Feel free to retweet
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Market neutral is a good strategy. Whenever you wanna long something, just short something simultaneously. Eventually, you won’t be affected by market beta. Profit from your short would compensate you loss of the long. If your view is precise, you got alpha from the L/S pair.
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The coin that I kept buying last week, and occupied more than half of the bid orderbook, is GMX. Just around 1 week, its price is doubled.
Sad that just 30 likes for the tweet, it seems you guys are not so interested in what I was buying…
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2 short pos continue to rock! I knew some ppl lost a lot on these 2 tokens, but they couldn’t accept the truth tht instit. out there shorted them… I saw they go fu*k all tweets tht were bearish on these 2 tokens, it’s really sad. Trader shd accept everything, incl. ur lose trade
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$GMT & $AXS shorts mentioned last month, continue to rock! Again, shorted them because too many people said these 2 are good in the past 2 months… Whenever ppl out there said something is good, run, or try to take profit from their stupidity (quote from the movie The Big Short)
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Leverage is real crazy in the BTC market… The estimated leverage ratio reaches ATH. Momentum is the best strategy in this kind of environment as a little liquidation could already trigger chain reaction, leading to huge liquidation. Watch out.
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Revisit.
For $GMT, I shorted at $3.13
To emphasise the importance of market neutral, here are some short trades I’m doing. If counting in leverage, % return of these trades are over 1000%. Reason I short $ZIL is that the founding team isn’t that sophisticated, low chance being successful. For $GMT, it is overheated
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Life is hard.
Increment of 1.2m in the account in 1 day just allowed me to be no.45 on Binance leaderboard…
Stay away from trading bro.
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Already too lazy to screenshot the leaderboard, but this time is no.1, so I spent some time to search my name and do the shot
Actually putting more capital into the acct would be much easier to rank higher, but I think rebalancing by withdrawing from time to time is more +EV…
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I saw something.
Price down, but oi keeps at high level, what does it mean? It means shorts keep adding all the way down.
2nd thing, predicted funding rate suddenly went down a lot when btc was below 22000, meaning ppl are crazily shorting btc now.
Higher chance to rebound.
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Start to think that there will be no alt season… as tradfi money doesn’t have channel to flow into alts
If the bull run in 24-25 is dominated by tradfi money, then long the big 2/3 would have higher ev than goin long on alts
I’m not saying alts won’t pump, just from ev aspect
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Love the new feature of Binance!
The chart will show your trade!
They really did a great job.
#binance
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Good day again.
When market is up, you earn, means nothing. You have to profit when the market is down.
#Binance
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Told you, alt season is not coming in the near future, rather I would say alt is a trap, for you to miss out the bull run of BTC. Data told us, BTC outperformed 90% of the alts in the past 3 months. Unless you always be able to choose the top 10%
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At the time i did this tweet, btc was at 38k, now btc perp has been down to 30.8k. So, you now understand what would happen if there is too much leverage in the market. Don’t try to be one of them.
Please beware, the open interest of Binance BTCUSDT perp contact keeps going up. Before BTC going to the moon, its leverage will arrive moon soon.
Together with a very low realised volatility, once the chain of liquidation is triggered, BTC would be volatile.
#oi
#openinterest
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Bitcoin is up 30% in the past 30 days, but funding is still negative, what does it mean?
You should know the ans.
#bitcoin
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I’m sure if mkt really thought that spot ETF isn’t going to appear, they would be dumping BTC & long alts
However, buying power on BTC obviously is larger than others
So mkt is still expecting the birth of spot ETF
I believe BTC will continue to outperform others in this week
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Under high lev, finally some good news. Both whales & small fish are accumulating. However, number of red dots aren’t enough to prove a bull run. As you can make reference of May 2021 in the chart, red dots were there too, but market went down afterwards. So, we still hv to wait.
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Everyone out there saying the correction is due to the Matrixport report…
Actually, all wrong. It’s just a typical de-leverage move.
If it is really related to BTC spot ETF, BTC dominance must drop like shit.
Look at the BTC.D, how could it go up even further?
Be critical.
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Manual vs Algo trader
Manual trader:
oh market leverage is too high, I may do some shorts here
Algo trader:
oh what? why my system did some shorts for me? maybe market leverage is too high… not sure
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Finally some long trades at the local bottom. Leverages are still in the market, coming direction of market really depends on whether these leverage would close their positions or not. Let’s see. If you have leveraged positions in hand, be careful, market would still be volatile
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I am curious on whether large/mid/small cap coins is better, so, I check the rank of some high growth coins (currently ranked top 30) back in last year, after the dip on 5/19
2021/5/23 crypto rank
sol 18
atom 38
cro 39
avax 45
luna 51
near 69
Seems 10-70 is the shooting range
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warm reminder, leverage in the market is still high, even btc has dipped to 26k last week. No matter estimated leverage ratio or open interest / market cap, both are high af. OI/mcap is now 1.9-2%, which means the market will be volatile in the coming time.
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now you know what I mean. Feel free to retweet, appreciate you guys’ support!
Leverage is real crazy in the BTC market… The estimated leverage ratio reaches ATH. Momentum is the best strategy in this kind of environment as a little liquidation could already trigger chain reaction, leading to huge liquidation. Watch out.
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finally some buying from my algo…
Biggest news today is 3AC’s liquidation, but for Microstrategy, the liquidation risk is not that high comparing to those investing / getting return from Defi, as MSTR still has BTC that are not yet collateralised, unless btc down to <15k imo
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in last cycle, I didn’t trade much meme tokens, cause I thought they got 0 intrinsic value
but in this cycle, I realised why meme could be that powerful, cause they don’t have true value, so it is hard to know its fair price, so no one dares to short them, therefore they moon…
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Liquidity in bearish mkt is poor…
After the UST unpeg incident, both institutions & retails lost money, so the participation rate of them in the mkt keep dropping…
I do try my best to provide liquidity to the mkt, by constantly creating >60m usd volume every month since 2021
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2021 2nd half stat of some large cap coin, you will find that more centralized coin had a better risk adjusted return. It is easier for centralized token to pump in bullish environment. If you like this stat, feel free to retweet
*ar is annual return, sr is sharpe, cr is calmar
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I nearly never do manual trade, but I did 1 last week, on SOL.
And it is the sole position in my manual trading acct haha.
Only did a tiny size, 50k
#sol
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Obviously it is a short squeeze.
If you have time, must go for systematic & quant trading, only building a system can give you sustainable & stable return.
If you don’t have time, DCA buying in $BTC & $ETH is proven over 5-10years to be the best way.
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BTC to the moon.
This is what I mean in the tweets of last 2 days.
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Just encountered some bugs in the recent week… bugs made me losing >500k usd, otherwise return would be much better than this
Bugs made me re-examine and review the whole system, and of course reflect on myself
#binance
#leaderboard
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Please beware, the open interest of Binance BTCUSDT perp contact keeps going up. Before BTC going to the moon, its leverage will arrive moon soon.
Together with a very low realised volatility, once the chain of liquidation is triggered, BTC would be volatile.
#oi
#openinterest
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Both BTC & ETH got their funding rates below the long term mean of 0.01% in the past 12 hrs, together with an OI to market cap ratio of 1.9% in the BTCUSDT perp market. What does it mean? Bullish or bearish?
Let me know your thoughts.
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Past 30d pnl passed 1m. Just to make a record here.
People saying bitcoin isnt an inflation hedge, and serious inflation is harming bitcoin / cryptos, what do you think?
#Binance
#inflation
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I really love watching Michael Saylor’s interviews on Bitcoin, obviously he does very deep research on Bitcoin.
However, his company MSTR doesn’t have a positive alpha over Bitcoin, the alpha is -0.025% daily instead.
So, if you buy what he said, buy Bitcoin, but not MSTR.
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Always support binance like how I support $BNB
This is also why HeYi came to chat with me directly in the Dubai vip event🤓
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faster bull than the former 2 bull runs
and on average still 1 year time to challenge the ATH price
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Saw some news these days talking $BTC isn’t good coz it’s PoW, instead $ETH is the future, ie. ETH adoption would be much faster than BTC
However, if you dump BTC for ETH just for this reason, it isn’t a smart move. BTC PoW & ETH upgrade aren’t day1 stuff, mkt alrdy priced in
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Just checked my pnl when I woke this morning
Managed to get enough profit to enjoy a coconut in Bali
#bali
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dividend stock / fixed income with yield <5% is really the biggest scam of capitalism. Housing is a good inflation indicator, if your capital growth is below housing price, you’re losing money in terms of purchasing power. You have to look for >10% return from now on
#inflation
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Mapping the current ETH usage to that of the internet, gives us hints that crypto now is like internet back in around 1995. Interesting.
I remember news back then said “internet is totally a waste of energy”.
Any thoughts?
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Wow, highest today is $39!
Nearly 3x from my buying price 2 weeks ago.
Anyone holding GMX too?
Any thoughts?
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since beginning of this year, I said alt season wouldn't come in near term
but after liquidating all those retail long in altcoin on Apr13-14, and 52% dominance is a bit high for BTC, EV on alt is a bit higher now
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What we see:
Spot ETF outflow.
Behind the scene:
When crypto ppl see spot ETF inflow, they try to front run tradfi by buying more beforehand (Jan & Feb)
When tradfi knows everyone is looking at them, they buy BTC using channels beyond spot ETF and sell spot ETF (Mar & Apr)
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as i have mentioned in Jan, alt season is not coming
someone would say, “my meme coin up 10% tdy!”, you couldn’t just choose one to disprove me, but better look at the btc dominance
alt season not coming due to 3 facts:
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Disagree.
The correction yesterday is similar to the one in 2020/3/12. As shown in the graph, 2020/3/12 had obvious blue area as well, but that marked the bottom of btc (5k).
Bear in mind that 2024 is the year of halving, so it is another version of 2020.
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has flagged BEAR phase (high blue area) for the first time since January 2023.
Other periods when it has flagged BEAR phases for a limited period have been the COVID sell-off (March 2020) and the Chinese mining ban (May 2021). It then
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People are always like this:
“To the moon!” when btc is at 69k
and “it is scam!” when btc is at 20k
human.
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Leverage is high af, low volatility is a cause of it. Low volatility -> less liquidation -> more open interest; also, under low vol, people tend to do more leverage to achieve more return.
But due to the funding fluctuating around 0, therefore, market hasn’t gone one-sided yet.
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My new Binance acct, started trading since last week.
Have to build and accumulate performance record again…
#Binance
#leaderboard
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good job
good sharpe is the reason i love crypto, not only its high return
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Hottest news tdy is that the crypto borrowing & lending platform Celcius seems having the risk of liquidation.
In this kind of bearish market, market neutral / long short balanced strategy / algo is the best, instead of blindly predicting / guess how the price will move
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Let’s say bye to this legendary account. Because Binance is going to ban Hong Kong people from trading contracts today.
I will start to trade in another account from now on, all memorable record would be cleared forever, last snapshot of this account here
#Binance
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I understood why Binance introduced zero fee on BTC spot…
As shown on Coingecko, just 15m usd, I can push Binance BTC/USDT up 2%; by just 21m usd, I can push it down 2%…
The spot orderbook is quite thin, comparing to contract market
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I think this time I am No.1, in terms of always having the fewest followers on the leaderboard
Wish in some day I can achieve 1 day 2m usd pnl
#binance
#leaderboard
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Just wanna say that, market neutral and long short balance are really gonna save you in this kind of volatile and fragile market. Go search for some low or zero beta strategies, then you won’t be affected by any market movements.
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joined a Binance event tdy, and they found a group of girls here to dance, now I know where my trading fee goes to.
jk, Binance is good
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a very clear list of who have already got in
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According to the tweet yesterday, I did some short on APE, and it’s down 20% so far
In this case, just some simple valuation method is used, and it proves countering retail sentiment works too
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Bitmex Arthur Hayes mentioned the pump was due to mkt risk-off, usd depreciation & war and not due to the spot ETF….
See, the pump was done within several hrs, how did the above mentioned factors only happen in several hrs???
Guys, we hv to be critical and ignore bullshits…
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Blue is ETH price, orange is signal
What happen to ETH when signal appears?
What’s your thought?
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this table is clear
over the past 9 days, main activity is money switching from GBTC to other spot ETFs
overall there is 800m inflow into all spot ETFs. So, don’t say the GBTC outflow leads to the correction of BTC
some outflow happened recently, but just 100m, insignificant
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Still rmb I keep saying alt season is not comin? Alt is a trap for retail, more greedy you were, more alts you bought, more pain you suffering
RRR of large cap is much better than that of alts. Unless you are beta 0, otherwise all your pnl depend on beta, never deceive yourself
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alpha
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My view is correct…
Start to think that there will be no alt season… as tradfi money doesn’t have channel to flow into alts
If the bull run in 24-25 is dominated by tradfi money, then long the big 2/3 would have higher ev than goin long on alts
I’m not saying alts won’t pump, just from ev aspect
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Ppl always complain the mkt, saying it liquidates them
I actually did try my best to stop huge liquidation event
Like on Fri, I used my powder to pump ETH & BTC, and I managed to do it, it then went all the way back to 1.7k level
But I don’t do that often, last time was in Apr
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i will from time to time check the top gainers in the market
to see if I could manage to catch them
in the past 30d top gainers, i have around half of the list
suggest everyone to try your best to capture the top gainers
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BTC 30d HV is super low, below 50%, level went back to be like 2020 Nov.
Expect higher vol coming. Lower your leverage if you trade contract, or of course, if you don’t have a proven profitable strategy, must stick to spot.
#hv
#rv
#volatility
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Glad to be top10 in the worldwide competition on Bybit
With 300k+ profit within a month
Just received the reward!
Thanks
@Bybit_Official
again!
#bybit
#wsot
#WSOT2023
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seems alpha here
can backtest
#Bitcoin
whales shifting to risk-off mode, avoiding sending $BTC to derivative exchanges.
h/t
@jjcmoreno
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Monitoring whale address is one of the strategy that got positive Sharpe & alpha
Institutions, class of 2020', haven't sold $BTC yet.
For most cases, the same amount of BTC is still in the (custodian) wallets, which flowed out from Coinbase for highly likely institutional purchases in Dec 2020.
Their entry price is $23k.
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The rate of growth of developer number of different chains is shown in the chart. You would see that the growth rate of $NEAR is similar to that of $SOL.
Additional info here, several big VC have invested in $NEAR this year.
However, its mcap / tvl isn’t low. What do you think?
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Guess what am i buying?
My orders have accounted for more than half of the bid order book.
Because 220 is the max size limited by the exchange, they don’t allow me to place buy order of size over 220 at each layer, sad.
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